Who is behind the ongoing Indian farmers agitation ?
There was a Farmers’ Agitation in India in 2020-2021, which died down when the farmers’ demand of repeal of 3 agricultural laws was accepted by the Government of India
Now, shortly before the forthcoming parliamentary elections, another farmers agitation, mainly led by farmers of Punjab demanding MSP ( Minimum Support Price ) for their agricultural products, has suddenly commenced.
The news about this agitation has gone viral, and is all over the Indian media. Many people have commented on it, including this humble self :
An interesting and important question is who is really behind this agitation ? There are of course the Sanyukt Kisan Morcha and some other groups which are heading the agitation,
But who is really behind these groups ? This is the question which will sought to be answered here. Since my answer may sound a bit bizarre, it needs to be explained in some detail.
Today the main conflict in the world is between USA and China ( which has replaced USSR as the main rival of USA, after disintegration of the former ). China with its massive industrial base, has emerged as a super power, and is aggressively expanding everywhere in the world, hungrily in search of markets, raw materials, and avenues for investment for its huge 3.4 trillion dollar foreign exchange reserve.
Prime Minister Modi has taken India wholeheartedly into the US camp, and the Americans have welcomed this, as they need a strong counterpoise to China in Asia. This would naturally have been strongly resented by the Chinese.
Parliamentary elections will shortly be held in India, and Modi’s BJP seems sure to win a third 5 year term, particularly after the hype around the consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, and, to a lesser extent, the agitations regarding the Gyanvapi mosque in Varanasi, and the Shahi Masjid in Mathura.
Obviously this prospect would be unpalatable to the Chinese, who perceive the BJP as strongly pro-American. Hence I have a strong hunch that it is the Chinese who are really behind the present farmers’ agitation and the groups leading it.
Now it may be immediately asked : what evidence do I have for such an outlandish assertion ?
My answer is that true there is no direct evidence, but there is also a thing called circumstantial evidence, which is reliance on rational inferences.
Would not the Chinese oppose the pro-American BJP coming to power again by winning the forthcoming elections ? Yes, they will do so tooth and nail. And what better way to do that than by arousing the Indian farmers, who comprise of 60% of India’s population ? And the best way to do that is to start an agitation for MSP.
MSP is a popular demand of Indian farmers, who do not get adequate remuneration for their produce ( over 400,000 of them have committed suicide ), and they want a law guaranteeing MSP.
The Swaminathan Commission set up by the Indian Government recommended a statutory MSP at cost price+50%. In other words, if it cost a farmer Rs 100 to produce an agricultural product, by law the government must buy it at Rs 150. Private traders can also buy it, but they too must pay Rs 150, otherwise they will be penalised. This was the law proposed by the Swaminathan Commission, and being demanded by the agitating farmers, who want to enter Delhi, but are being prevented by the police.
MSP sounds a very rosy idea, and people opposing it risk being branded as anti farmer, and as hostile to our ‘annadatas’ ( bread providers )
However, I submit that MSP is not feasible in a free enterprise economy.
Presently, though MSP is declared for 23 crops in India, it is implemented mainly for wheat and paddy, and that too for only a small percentage of Indian farmers.
70% Punjabi farmers get the benefit of MSP, while less than 10% Bihari farmers get it.
If a law for MSP is made, all farmers in India will demand that the government must buy all their produce at the MSP. This would well nigh be impossible for the government to comply with. The only option for farmers then would be to sell the produce to private traders, but these may be unwilling to buy at the high MSP. They will then covertly buy at lower prices, thus subverting the entire MSP scheme. Moreover this is bound to result in largescale police corruption, as the police will sooner or later grow wise to the underhand dealings, and then start extortion from both the seller and buyer.
Furthermore, the meaning of ‘cost of production’ is unclear
Other problems in implementing MSP are given in the articles below
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Indian_farmers%27_protest
It is estimated that MSP would cost Rs 17 lakh crores, which is half the Union budget.
The Union Govt has filed an affidavit in the Supreme Court that it would not be possible to determine MSP according to its promise, as such increase would distort the market
I submit that the present farmers agitation is only with an eye on the forthcoming parliamentary elections in India, and the Chinese are behind it.
What is the farmers’ demand?
The farmers’ demand is to get a legal guarantee for the minimum support price (MSP) of their crops. MSP is the lowest rate at which the government buys crops from farmers to protect them from market fluctuations and ensure income security. The farmers want MSP to be fixed at 50% above the cost of production, as recommended by the Swaminathan Commission¹². They also want MSP to cover all 23 crops under the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP)³. Currently, the government only procures wheat and rice at MSP, leaving other crops vulnerable to market forces⁴. The farmers fear that without a legal guarantee for MSP, they will lose their bargaining power and livelihoods. 🌾
What are the three agricultural laws that farmers want to repeal?
The three agricultural laws that farmers want to repeal are:
- The Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020: This law allows farmers to sell their produce outside the regulated markets (mandis) and across states, without paying any fees or taxes. It also permits online trading and contract farming. ¹²
- The Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020: This law enables farmers to enter into agreements with private buyers, such as companies, processors, exporters, or retailers, for the sale of future produce at a pre-agreed price. It also provides for dispute resolution mechanisms and quality standards. ¹²
- The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020: This law removes commodities such as cereals, pulses, oilseeds, edible oils, onions, and potatoes from the list of essential commodities, and deregulates their production, storage, movement, and distribution. It also removes the imposition of stock limits, except in cases of war, famine, natural calamity, or extraordinary price rise. ¹²
The government claims that these laws are aimed at increasing farmers’ income, enhancing competition, reducing intermediaries, and creating a unified national market for agricultural produce. ¹²
However, the farmers fear that these laws will expose them to the vagaries of market forces, undermine the minimum support price (MSP) system, weaken the state-regulated mandis, and favour the corporate sector.