How Tim Scott thinks he can outmaneuver Trump, DeSantis and Pence

A foregone conclusion, though, is that evangelicals — with all their subsets and denominations — will be his top constituency.

In a video announcing his new committee, Scott’s first pledge was to defend America’s faith values and protect religious liberty. Scott’s answer later in the morning on how he would beat Trump in a primary involved a reference to Psalm 139.

And own advisers say Scott’s path to viability involves courting the vote of churchgoers, particularly in Iowa, where his first meetings after his Wednesday announcement were with homeschool families and pastors.

“Dear Heavenly Father,” read the first fundraising appeal from his exploratory committee, an email Wednesday morning that included a suggested two-minute prayer for Scott.

But the evangelical lane isn’t one Scott will likely have to himself, and his focus on social conservatives could complicate Scott’s ability to appeal to a newer generation of Republican voters with looser opinions on abortion access and marriage equality.

In addition to Trump — who in the White House became a hero of conservative Christians after delivering them the Supreme Court, among other things — former Vice President Mike Pence also speaks the language of Bible-believing Christians. Pence has long oriented his political message around faith and, like Scott, is at home in evangelical church settings.

But a day after news broke that he was launching an exploratory committee, Scott sounded like a man ready to compete for primacy with that constituency.

To a room of 35 pastors and their wives in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Wednesday, Scott told his life story — his spiritual testimony — before taking questions from Christian leaders who could ultimately help steer Iowa Christian voters toward one candidate or another.

“Anybody who’s around him for just a couple minutes doesn’t doubt his heartfelt belief in Christ as his savior,” said Chad Connelly, the former chair of the South Carolina Republican Party who now runs an organization that engages pastors on political and policy issues. Connelly, who is also organizing pastor roundtables for other Republican 2024 hopefuls, recalled a minister telling him once: “Tim Scott quotes more scripture in conversation than a pastor does.”

In a place like Iowa or Scott’s home state of South Carolina, though, the pool of voters identifying as conservative Christians is broad. And it represents a wide range of pro- and anti-Trump Republicans.

“I’ve just learned this constituency — they’re not like robots,” said Steve Scheffler, the Republican National Committeeman from Iowa and president of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition. “Even though they agree on most issues, their methodology by the time they have their final pick in the caucuses can vary by 180 degrees.”

A person familiar with Scott’s campaign strategy said voters are “going to be hearing a lot about his faith, and how it affects his worldview and vision.”

As for his path to viability with the Republican primary electorate, another Scott adviser pointed to Scott being little-known nationally, which affords him a higher favorable rating and lower unfavorable rating than much of the rest of the field. His name recognition problem, meanwhile, can be remedied with the nearly $22 million he had sitting in his campaign account as of the end of last year — a number likely to be larger when he posts his first-quarter filings in coming days.

Scott has kept a healthy distance from Trump in the Senate, neither a loyalist and cheerleader nor a critic. That puts him in position to pick up Trump admirers who are ready for the party to move on, as well as anti-Trump Republicans.

But positioning oneself as the candidate who can earn the support of social conservatives while also broadening the GOP’s appeal to independents and swing voters will prove to be a tall order.

Example No. 1: Abortion.

At a time when Republican leaders are reckoning with the party’s losses among young voters and suburban women — particularly after last year’s Dobbs decision — Scott is attempting to walk a fine line on abortion rights. The issue has long remained one of the top priorities of conservative evangelicals.

The senator, who was among the featured speakers at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life’s gala last fall and says he is “100% pro-life,” has declined to answer reporters’ questions on whether he would support a national abortion ban, such as a 15-week ban proposed by his home-state colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

Scott remained reticent to speak about the issue on Wednesday, telling local reporters in Cedar Rapids that he favors a “robust debate” on abortion. Later, in an interview on CBS News, Scott brushed off multiple questions about whether he would support federal abortion limits.

In his exploratory committee launch video, Scott vowed to “protect the right to life,” something he doesn’t mention on his website’s six-point “issues” page. Similarly, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has spoken about the need for the country to reach “consensus” on the issue, while avoiding specifics about when in the course of a pregnancy it should be outlawed.

Trump, meanwhile, has drawn sharp criticism from top anti-abortion opponents for suggesting that the party became too extreme on the issue, despite the fact he appointed judges who later issued major court rulings siding with opponents of abortion rights.

In contrast, Pence has positioned himself as the GOP primary field’s chief crusader against abortion rights, calling for a national ban and, more recently, celebrating a Texas judge’s controversial ruling against use of an abortion pill.

Despite most other candidates and prospective candidates in the field also incorporating faith into their message, opponents of Scott note that he has not sought to brand himself as a conservative “fighter,” and religion is no longer the primary motivating factor for many voters.

“It’s kind of like bringing a knife to a gun fight,” said one GOP consultant working for another 2024 Republican hopeful, referring to Scott’s emphasis on faith. “Everyone else is playing 12-dimensional chess, and you’re playing checkers.”

Scott’s first events after launching his exploratory committee were behind closed doors. Wednesday morning, he and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) spoke privately with homeschool families, before emerging to speak with reporters. Scott’s roundtable with pastors was also closed to news media, though he gave a public address Wednesday night at a GOP women’s dinner in Cedar Rapids.

Randy Page, the chief of staff to the president of Bob Jones University and a longtime Republican operative in the state, said he believes Scott is nimble enough to draw in independent-leaning and swing voters even while championing socially conservative causes. Page said he will support Scott if he ultimately runs.

“Some of the things suburban women may have concerns about, he can talk about the issues in a way that appeals to them,” Page said. “Even if they may not agree with him on those things, they will find other issues they agree with him on and say, ‘This is the kind of man we would want to represent us as president of the United States.”