Beneath the headline number there’s trouble. So-called core inflation — which strips out volatile energy and food prices — actually rose in March on an annual basis. That will probably do nothing to deter Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in his war on inflation.
A sharp drop in bank lending after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank may do some of the Fed’s work for it by squeezing borrowers. But that — and the Fed’s continued inflation fight — could also tip a precariously balanced economy toward a slump.
Here’s how the latest inflation numbers are likely to go over with Biden and other key players:
Biden: The drop in the headline CPI figure to the lowest rate in nearly two years could boost the president since spiking inflation and the possibility of a Fed-induced recession are among the biggest existential threats to his winning a second term.
Biden’s strongest political selling points are a remarkably resilient job market and rising wages, especially among lower-income earners. Anything that undermines these pillars — including inflation turning higher again and wiping out wage gains — gives the White House nightmares.
The latest inflation numbers, while mixed, were certainly no nightmare for the administration.
“We think this is good news to the extent that headline inflation fell and is now at 5 percent, down from 9.1 percent last summer,” White House economic adviser Heather Boushey said in a Yahoo! News interview. “So things are moving in the right direction.”
She added: “We are interpreting this as movement in the right direction especially when combined with last Friday’s labor market data.”
That report showed the economy created 236,000 jobs in March, defying yet again widespread expectations of a sharp slowdown as Fed rate hikes pump the brakes on growth in many sectors (think housing and manufacturing).
Powell: What may look good for Biden won’t go over as well with the Fed chair.
The central bank chief likely smiled when he saw the headline figure dropping to 5 percent, but probably not when he got into the details.
Core prices — which the Fed believes give a truer picture of where inflation is at — actually jumped 5.6 percent in March on an annual basis, up from 5.5 percent in February and the first yearly increase since September. So this thing’s not over yet.
And while the Fed’s rate-hike campaign is curbing the price spikes, inflation remains well above the central bank’s target of 2 percent annually. (Imagine that up until two years ago, the Fed’s biggest concern was that inflation was too low.)
Powell has repeatedly said in press conferences and speeches that while bringing down overall inflation is good, he and his colleagues need to see core inflation dropping as well before they can be confident their job is done.
Still, central bank officials are now debating whether to pause the rate increases at their next meeting in May amid some signs of softening in the economy and continued fallout from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank last month. (The CPI numbers don’t take into account the impact of those failures).
Wall Street is looking for one more quarter-point hike and then a pause — followed by potential cuts later this year or early next. (Powell has dismissed the possibility of rate cuts this year).
Ronna McDaniel, Republican National Committee chair: Republicans pounced on the report to hammer Biden on inflation despite the drop in the overall figure.
“Inflation is up, wages are down, and Americans are struggling to stay afloat in Biden’s failed economy,” McDaniel said in a statement.
“Democrats have neither answers nor solutions — their policies only worsen the economic burden on families, yet Biden wants taxpayers to foot the bill for his $6.9 trillion tax-and-spending spree that will send inflation soaring even higher.
Biden’s poll numbers generally and on the economy in particular remain deeply underwater — but tend to rise and fall with inflation. He’ll need much faster progress to get the numbers moving higher.
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon — Dimon, CEO of the biggest bank in America, will certainly appreciate the dip in the headline number. But he and other financial industry titans have larger concerns, including a decline in bank lending that is likely to accelerate after all the rate hikes and bank failures.
A recent report showed bank lending plunged by more than $100 billion in the last two weeks of March — the largest such decline on record.
Banks are tightening up standards for lending — and consumers and businesses are struggling with higher rates — which can lead to a sharp recession if a real credit crunch occurs and money stops flowing freely into the U.S. economy.
Bank CEOs like Dimon worry that the Fed remains behind in its inflation fight and may have significantly more work to do to rein in prices.
“I have all the respect for Powell,” Dimon said in a recent CNBC interview. “But the fact is we lost a little bit of control of inflation.”
He and other executives aren’t yet calling for an imminent recession. But they are getting prepared for one.
“Out in front of us, there’s some scary stuff. You and I know there’s always uncertainty,” Dimon said.
