The Dutch government on Saturday ordered the expulsion of several Russian diplomats over Russia’s “continued attempts to place intelligence officers into the Netherlands under diplomatic cover.”
The Netherlands also said it will close its consulate general in St. Petersburg on Monday and the Russian trade office in Amsterdam by Tuesday.
The moves are the latest development in ongoing negotiations over visas for diplomats: The Netherlands expelled 17 Russian diplomats last March over espionage concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — after which Russia expelled 15 Dutch diplomats.
“Negotiations with Russia over the terms of sending diplomats back and forth to diplomatic posts have so far come to nothing,” the government said in a statement Saturday. “Russia keeps trying to surreptitiously place intelligence officers in the Netherlands as diplomats. At the same time, Russia refuses to issue visas for Dutch diplomats to staff the consulate general in St. Petersburg and the embassy in Moscow.”
It described the situation as “unacceptable” and “untenable.” The Dutch government added that it was “important to keep the embassies open as a communication channel, even now that relations with Russia are more difficult than ever.”
The diplomats now have two weeks to leave the country.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it will “give an appropriate response” to the Dutch decision, according to a report by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.
[ad_2]
#Netherlands #orders #expulsion #Russian #diplomats
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
MUNICH — Cut through the haze of hoary proclamations emanating from the main stage of the Munich Security Conference about Western solidarity and common purpose this weekend, and one can’t help but notice more than a hint of foreboding just beneath the surface.
Even as Western leaders congratulate themselves for their generosity toward Ukraine, the country’s armed forces are running low on ammunition, equipment and even men. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who opened the conference from Kyiv on Friday, urged the free world to send more help — and fast. “We need speed,” he said.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris turned the heat up on Russia on another front, accusing the country of “crimes against humanity.” “Let us all agree. On behalf of all the victims, both known and unknown: justice must be served,” she said.
In other words, Russian leaders could be looking at Nuremberg 2.0. That’s bound to make a few people in Moscow nervous, especially those old enough to remember what happened to Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milošević and his entourage.
The outlook in Asia is no less fraught. Taiwan remains on edge, as the country tries to guess China’s next move. Here too, the news from Munich wasn’t reassuring.
“What is happening in Europe today could happen in Asia tomorrow,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi did nothing to contradict that narrative. “Let me assure the audience that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory,” Wang told the conference when asked about Beijing’s designs on the self-governed island. Taiwan “has never been a country and it will never be a country in the future.”
For some attendees, the vibe in the crowded Bayerischer Hof hotel where the gathering takes place carried echoes of 1938. That year, the Bavarian capital hosted a conference that resulted in the infamous Munich Agreement, in which European powers ceded the Sudetenland to Germany in a misguided effort they believed could preserve peace.
“We all know that there is a storm brewing outside, but here inside the Bayerischer Hof all seems normal,” wrote Andrew Michta, dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the Germany-based Marshall Center. “It all seems so routine, and yet it all changes suddenly when a Ukrainian parliamentarian pointedly tells the audience we are failing to act fast enough.”
The only people smiling at this year’s security conference are the defense contractors. Arms sales are booming by all accounts.
Even Germany, which in recent years perfected the art of explaining away its failure to meet its NATO defense spending commitment, promised to reverse course. Indeed, German officials appeared to be trying to outdo one another to prove just how hawkish they’ve become.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to “permanently” meet NATO’s defense spending goal for individual members of two percent of GDP.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to “permanently” meet NATO’s defense spending goal for individual members | Johannes Simon/Getty Images
Germany’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, a Social Democrat like Scholz, called for even more, saying that “it will not be possible to fulfill the tasks that lie ahead of us with barely two percent.”
Keep in mind that at the beginning of last year, leading Social Democrats were still calling on the U.S. to remove all of its nuclear warheads from German soil.
In other words, if even the Germans have woken up to the perils of the world’s current geopolitical state, this could well be the moment to really start worrying.
CORRECTION: Jens Stoltenberg’s reference to Asia has been updated.
[ad_2]
#world #Munich #feels #nervous
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
Washington is trying to “demonize Russia” and “fuel the Ukrainian crisis” by accusing Moscow of crimes against humanity, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said on Sunday.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris announced Saturday that Washington has formally determined that Russia is committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, in an address at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.
In a message on the social media network Telegram, Antonov said: “We consider such insinuations as an attempt, unprecedented in terms of its cynicism, to demonize Russia in the course of a hybrid war, unleashed against us. There is no doubt that the purpose of such attacks is to justify Washington’s own actions to fuel the Ukrainian crisis,” he said.
Harris had said Russia is responsible for a “widespread and systematic attack” against Ukraine’s civilian population, committing war crimes — as the administration formally concluded last March — and illegal acts against non-combatants. She cited evidence of execution-style killings, rape, torture and forceful deportations.
The Biden administration will continue to assist Ukraine in investigating these alleged crimes, she said, pledging to hold “to account” the perpetrators and “their superiors.”
“Let us all agree: on behalf of all the victims, both known and unknown: justice must be served,” Harris added.
MUNICH — Countries able to send battle tanks to Ukraine should “actually do so now,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday, trying to rally support for a Europe-wide fleet of tank donations.
Speaking at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, a gathering of global political and security leaders, Scholz said “Germany acknowledges its responsibility for the security of Europe and the NATO alliance area, without ifs and buts.”
This is, he added, “a responsibility that a country of Germany’s size, location and economic strength has to shoulder in times like these.”
Concretely, the chancellor said Germany would “permanently” adhere to the NATO goal of spending 2 percent of its economic output on defense — a target that Berlin is currently set to miss this year and probably also next year, despite a massive €100 billion special fund for military investment.
Germany needs to boost its defense industry and switch to “a permanent production of the most important weapons we are using,” the chancellor added.
Scholz’s remarks came just hours after his defense minister, Boris Pistorius, told reporters in Munich Germany must commit to even higher spending targets to follow through on its security pledges.
“It must be clear to everyone: It will not be possible to fulfill the tasks that lie ahead of us with barely two percent,” Pistorius said.
Western allies are gathering in Munich for a series of high-level talks focused primarily on the war in Ukraine, one year after Russia invaded the Eastern European country.
Scholz said it would be “wise to prepare for a long war” and to send a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he’s making “a miscalculation” if he is counting on Ukraine’s Western allies eventually growing war-weary and pulling back from their military support.
The German chancellor said Ukraine’s allies with German-made, modern Leopard 2 tanks in their stocks should join Berlin in delivering them to Ukraine, adding that his government would use the three-day Munich conference to “campaign intensively for this.”
The German chancellor himself hesitated for months over whether to send Leopard 2 tanks, only changing course last month, when he vowed to build an international alliance that would give Ukraine 80 of the German-built tanks.
But he is struggling to deliver on that commitment. Some allies like Finland are dragging their feet on tank donations, while others like Portugal are not sending as many as Berlin had hoped.
Other countries like Poland or Spain are only sending an older version of the tank, the Leopard 2 A4. Scholz said he hopes “some more will also join” Germany in sending the more modern Leopard 2 A6.
Scholz also said that Germany “will do everything it can to make this decision easier for our partners,” offering to provide logistical support or training Ukrainian soldiers on the tanks. “I see this as an example of the kind of leadership which everyone is entitled to expect from Germany — and I expressly offer it to our friends and partners.”
Just before Scholz spoke, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that “speed is crucial,” underscoring the German leader’s point.
[ad_2]
#German #chancellor #vows #leadership #call #arm #Ukraine
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
MUNICH — French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday called out Vladimir Putin for telling him last year that the paramilitary Wagner Group had nothing to do with Russia.
“A year ago I spoke to Putin and he assured me Russia had nothing to do with the Wagner Group,” he told an audience at the Munich Security Conference. “I accepted that,” he said.
The Wagner Group has since provided military services supporting Russia’s war effort. It means Moscow “formalized the fact that Wagner was an explicit, direct, diplomatic-military, neo-mafia medium of Russia around the world,” Macron said.
Macron’s speech comes as country leaders and security officials gathered for a three-day event in the Bavarian capital, a conference dominated by the West’s efforts to allign on how to support Kyiv in its conflict with Russia.
The French president said the time isn’t right for dialogue with Russia and called on Western states to “intensify” their backing of a Ukrainian counter-offensive. But he suggested that — when negotiations would end the war on terms acceptable to Kyiv — Europe and Russia should “create an imperfect balance” on the Continent.
“It’s time for a transition,” he said, suggesting Russia and its adversaries will need to agree on a new regional security architecture, calling it an “imperfect balance.”
But he emphasized the time isn’t right for negotiations, noting it’s “too early” to formulate such a Europe-Russia understanding.
The comments reflect Macron’s long-held view that security guarantees for Russia are an “essential” component of any peace talks. Moscow has to be satisfied with how the war ends, or else any deal would be no more than a ceasefire and not a treaty, he argues.
Laura Kayali contributed reporting.
CORRECTION: This article was updated to correctly reflect Macron compared the Wagner group to the mafia.
[ad_2]
#Macron #calls #Russia #work #neomafia #Wagner #group
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
MUNICH — Wake up, Europe. We must face the China challenge.
That was NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s message on Saturday for the global security elite gathered at the Munich Security Conference.
The military alliance chief directly linked Russia’s war in Ukraine to China, hinting at concerns about Beijing launching a war on Taiwan, the self-governed island Beijing still claims.
“What is happening in Europe today,” he cautioned, “could happen in east Asia tomorrow.”
Moscow, Stoltenberg underscored, “wants a different Europe” while Beijing “is watching closely to see the price Russia pays — or the reward it receives for its aggression.”
“Even if the war ends tomorrow,” he added, “our security environment is changed for the long term.”
Stoltenberg’s remarks come against the backdrop of a broader conversation among Western allies about how to approach China as it makes revanchist military threats toward Taiwan and pumps up its own industries with government help.
While countries like the U.S. have pushed allies to keep a closer eye on Beijing and distance themselves from China’s economy, others have expressed caution about turning China into such an unequivocal enemy.
The NATO chief warned that Western allies must act united on both the military and economic fronts.
“The war in Ukraine has made clear the danger of over-reliance on authoritarian regimes,” he noted.
“We should not make the same mistake with China and other authoritarian regimes,” he said, calling on the West to eschew its dependence on China for the raw materials powering society. He also warned against exporting key technologies to the country.
And while focusing on external adversaries, Stoltenberg also implored NATO allies to avoid internal squabbling.
“We must not create new barriers between free and open economies,” he said.
“The most important lesson from the war in Ukraine,” he added, “is that North America and Europe must stand together.”
[ad_2]
#NATO #chief #Europe #Time #talk #China
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
MUNICH, Germany — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy opened the annual Munich Security Conference on Friday, calling on his Western partners to keep supporting his country against Russia in a battle he compared to the biblical story of David and Goliath.
“The Russian Goliath has already begun to lose,” Zelenskyy said, sitting in his trademark olive green sweatshirt behind a desk in Kyiv. “There’s no alternative to our victory.”
Zelenskyy thanked the U.S. and European countries for the military support they’ve sent his nation, while also urging them to do more, saying that Ukraine’s “sling” needed to be stronger. (In the biblical account, young Israelite shepherd David took down the Philistine giant Goliath with a sling and a small stone.) Zelenskyy warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin was trying to drag out the conflict, betting that the world would lose interest in the war.
“We need speed,” Zelenskyy said. “Speed is crucial.”
Zelenskyy also dismissed recent saber-rattling by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who said Thursday that his country was prepared to join Russia’s war against Ukraine, if attacked.
“The probability that Belarus is going get involved in the war is low,” he said. “The people in Belarus are not willing to fight against Ukraine. It won’t be easy to convince them.”
He predicted that if Belarusian troops did become involved, they would suffer considerable losses.
Zelenskyy, whose remarks received enthusiastic applause from the audience of policymakers and military officials gathered in Munich, closed his speech by calling for the acceleration of his country’s integration into the Western fold.
“There’s no alternative to Ukraine in the EU, there’s no alternative to Ukraine in NATO, there’s no alternative to our unity,” he said.
[ad_2]
#Zelenskyy #predicts #Russian #loss #warns #Belarus #attack
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
MUNICH — The United States has determined that Russia is committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris announced Saturday, the latest salvo in the West’s effort to hold Moscow accountable for its wartime atrocities.
In a marquee address at the Munich Security Conference, Harris detailed that Russia is responsible for a “widespread and systematic attack” against Ukraine’s civilian population, citing evidence of execution-style killings, rape, torture and forceful deportations — sometimes perpetrated against children. As a result, Russia has not only committed war crimes, as the administration formally concluded in March, but also illegal acts against non-combatants.
“Their actions are an assault on our common values, an attack on our common humanity,” the vice president said, referencing images of bodies lying in the streets of Bucha and the sexual assault of a four-year-old girl by a Russian soldier. “Barbaric and inhumane.”
Harris then declared: “The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity.”
The Biden administration will continue to assist Ukraine in its investigation into these alleged crimes, she said, vowing that the perpetrators and “their superiors” will be “held to account.”
She added: “Let us all agree: on behalf of all the victims, both known and unknown: justice must be served.”
The declaration is among the most forceful yet from a Western power as allies grapple with how to punish Russians responsible for violations. And it escalates the judicial side of America’s support for Ukraine, which has long said Russia was guilty of these crimes and that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ultimately responsible.
Harris didn’t cite Putin by name, but the clear implication is that the invasion he launched nearly a year ago is why Ukrainian civilians are now victims of these international law violations.
While “crimes against humanity” are not officially codified in an international treaty, they are still adjudicated in the International Criminal Court and other global bodies. The Biden administration’s determination means the U.S. believes Russian actions have met a broader standard than war crimes but not as specific a violation as genocide.
“In contrast with genocide, crimes against humanity do not need to target a specific group,” according to the United Nations. “Instead, the victim of the attack can be any civilian population, regardless of its affiliation or identity. Another important distinction is that in the case of crimes against humanity, it is not necessary to prove that there is an overall specific intent.”
Some, however, would like the Biden administration to go further. Back in the United States, both of West Virginia’s senators, Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican Shelley Moore Capito, introduced a resolution to recognize Russia’s war on Ukraine as a genocide.
Others like Tom Malinowski, a former member of Congress and senior human rights official at the State Department, believe “these debates about what to call Russia’s atrocities are less important than providing Ukraine the means to stop them.”
Andriy Yermak, the chief of Ukraine’s presidential office, said his country wouldn’t feel safe until Russia’s leadership was punished | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
“But yes, there’s no question that Russia is committing crimes against humanity,” he continued, “and we’re right to say so.”
On Friday, shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke via video to the gathering of officials and experts here, Andriy Yermak, the chief of Ukraine’s presidential office, said his country wouldn’t feel safe until Russia’s leadership was punished.
“The fastest and easiest way to build the security of Ukraine and the whole world is to create a special tribunal to try the Russian leadership for the crime of aggression. Europe and the entire civilized world understand why it is necessary,” he said at the opening of the “Ukraine is You” exhibit.
Last November, human rights organization Amnesty International said Russia was “likely” committing crimes against humanity, citing instances of the forceful transfer and deportation of people from Ukraine.
[ad_2]
#formally #accuses #Russia #crimes #humanity #Ukraine #Harris
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
There’s more bad news for Vladimir Putin. Europe is on course to get through winter with its vital gas storage facilities more than half full, according to a new European Commission assessment seen by POLITICO.
That means despite the Russian leader’s efforts to make Europe freeze by cutting its gas supply, EU economies will survive the coldest months without serious harm — and they look set to start next winter in a strong position to do the same.
A few months ago, there were fears of energy shortages this winter caused by disruptions to Russian pipeline supplies.
But a combination of mild weather, increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and a big drop in gas consumption mean that more than 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas is projected to remain in storage by the end of March, according to the Commission analysis.
A senior European Commission official attributed Europe’s success in securing its gas supply to a combination of planning and luck.
“A good part of the success is due to unusually mild weather conditions and to China being out of the market [due to COVID restrictions],” the official said. “But demand reduction, storage policy and infrastructure work helped significantly.”
Ending the winter heating season with such healthy reserves — above 50 percent of the EU’s roughly 100bcm total storage capacity — removes any lingering fears of a gas shortage in the short term. It also eases concerns about Europe’s energy security going into next winter.
The positive figures underlie the more optimistic outlook presented by EU leaders in recent days, with Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson saying on Tuesday that Europe had “won the first battle” of the “energy war” with Russia.
EU storage facilities — also vital for winter gas supply in the U.K., where storage options are limited — ended last winter only around 20 percent full. Brussels mandated that they be replenished to 80 percent ahead of this winter, requiring a hugely expensive flurry of LNG purchases by European buyers, to replace volumes of gas lost from Russian pipelines.
The wholesale price of gas rose to record levels during storage filling season — peaking at more than €335 per megawatt hour in August — with dire knock-on effects for household bills, businesses’ energy costs and Europe’s industrial competitiveness.
Gas prices have since fallen to just above €50/Mwh amid easing concerns over supplies. The EU has a new target to fill 90 percent of gas storage again by November 2023 — an effort that will now require less buying of LNG on the international market than it might have done had reserves been more seriously depleted.
“The expected high level of storages at above 50 percent [at] the end of this winter season will be a strong starting point for 2023/24 with less than 40 percent to be filled (against the difficult starting point of around 20 percent in storage at the end of winter season in 2022,” the Commission assessment says.
Analysts at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services think tank said this week that refilling storages this year could still be “as tough a challenge as last year” but predicted that the EU now had “more than enough import capacity to meet the challenge.”
Across the EU, five new floating LNG terminals have been set up — in the Netherlands, Greece, Finland and two in Germany — providing an extra 30bcm of gas import capacity, with more due to come online this year and next.
However, the EU’s ability to refill storages to the new 90 percent target ahead of next winter will likely depend on continued reduction in gas consumption.
Brussels set member states a voluntary target of cutting gas demand by 15 percent from August last year. Gas demand actually fell by more than 20 percent between August and December, according to the latest Commission data, partly thanks to efficiency measures but also the consequence of consumers responding to much higher prices by using less energy.
The 15 percent target may need to be extended beyond its expiry date of March 31 to avoid gas demand rebounding as prices fall. EU energy ministers are set to discuss the issue at two forthcoming meetings in February and March.
[ad_2]
#Putin #staring #defeat #gas #war #Europe
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
The EU’s energy war with Russia has entered a new phase — and there are signs that the Kremlin is starting to feel the pain.
As of Sunday, it is illegal to import petroleum products — those refined from crude oil, such as diesel, gasoline and naphtha — from Russia into the EU. That comes hot on the heels of the EU’s December ban on Russian seaborne crude oil.
Both measures are also linked to price caps imposed by the G7 club of rich democracies aimed at driving down the price that Russia gets for its oil and refined products without disrupting global energy markets.
Those actions appear to have bitten into the Kremlin’s budget in a way other economic penalties levied in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have not.
The Kremlin’s tax income from oil and gas in January was among its lowest monthly totals since the depths of COVID in 2020, according to Janis Kluge, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Kluge noted that while Russia’s 2023 budget anticipates 9 trillion rubles (€120 billion) in fossil fuel income, in January it earned only 425 billion rubles from oil and gas taxes, around half compared to the same month last year.
It’s only one month’s figures and the income does fluctuate, but Kluge called it “a bad start.”
Russia’s gas sales to Europe have also collapsed — in part as a result of Moscow’s own energy blackmail — with its share of imports declining from around 40 percent throughout 2021 to 13 percent for November 2022, according to the latest confirmed European Commission monthly figure.
But it’s oil that matters most to Kremlin coffers.
On Friday, EU countries struck a deal on two price caps which will come into full force later this year following a 55-day transition period. A cap of $100 will apply to “premium” oil products, including diesel, gasoline and kerosene. A cap of $45 will be enforced on “discount” products, such as fuel oil, naphtha and heating oil.
The EU ban and the G7 price caps are meant to work in tandem. While the EU bans Russian oil, cutting off a vital market, the price caps ensure that insurance and shipping firms based in the EU and other G7 countries aren’t completely blocked from facilitating the global trade in Russian oil. They still can, but it must be under the price caps. This way — so the theory goes — Russia’s fossil fuel revenue will take a hit without disrupting the global oil market in a way that could endanger supply and drive up the price for everyone.
Squeezing the Kremlin
Russia is selling more crude to China and India to make up for the lost trade with the EU | iStock
So far, EU leaders think, it’s working.
Buyers in China and India and other countries are hoovering up more Russian crude, making up for the lost trade with Europe. But knowing that Russia has few alternative markets, buyers have been able to drive down the price. “The discounts that Russia has to give, that its partners can demand, are strong and are here to stay,” said one senior European Commission official. Russian Urals crude is trading at around $50 per barrel, around $30 below the benchmark Brent crude price.
“I think in general the EU and the G7 can be quite happy with how things have unfolded with regards to the oil embargo and the price cap up to now,” said Kluge. “There has been no turbulence on global oil markets and at the same time Russia’s revenues have gone down considerably. The key reason here is that the price which Russia receives for its crude has gone down.”
The question is whether the EU can keep up the economic pressure on Russia without harming itself in the process.
So far, at least as far as oil is concerned, it’s been plain sailing. Oil markets have proved remarkably flexible since the EU’s crude ban in December, with export flows simply shifting: Asia now takes more Russian crude — often at a discount — while other producers in the Middle East and the U.S. step in to supply Europe.
So far, it is looking likely that a similar “reshuffle” of global trade will take place with oil products like diesel, said Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president of analysis at Rystad Energy.
The nature of the oil product sanctions means that there’s nothing to stop Russian crude from being exported to a third country, refined, and then re-exported to the EU, meaning that India and other countries are becoming more important oil product suppliers to the West.
China and India, as well as others in the Middle East and North Africa, also look likely to snap up Russian oil products that are no longer going straight into Europe, freeing up their own refining capacity to produce yet more product that they can sell into Europe and elsewhere.
“There is a reshuffle of product the same way there was a reshuffle of crude,” Galimberti said.
There could still be problems, however. “Europe is not going to import Russian diesel, so it needs to come from somewhere else,” Galimberti said, pointing to two major refineries in the Middle East — Kuwait’s Al-Zour and Saudi Arabia’s Jazan — upon which European supply will now be increasingly dependent.
“If you had a blip in one of these refineries you could see a price response in Europe,” said Galimberti. But for now, after a glut of imports in advance of Sunday’s ban, “inventories of distillates are full,” he added.
“Europe is in good shape.”
[ad_2]
#Russias #oil #revenues #plunge #EUs #oil #war #enters
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
