BERLIN — Germany’s land forces cannot fulfill their NATO commitments, according to a leaked memo from a top soldier cited in a German media report.
A division that Germany promised to NATO isn’t fully ready for battle, Bild newspaper reported Tuesday, citing a routine “leadership message” from Alfons Mais, the army’s inspector general, to the armed forces’ inspector general.
The memo increases pressure on Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is being confronted with the Bundeswehr’s structural problems that also faced his predecessors.
Berlin had promised a fully-equipped army division to NATO in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine as early as 2025, two years earlier than planned.
However, without countermeasures, “the army will not be able to hold its own in high-intensity combat and will also only be able to fulfill its obligations to NATO to a limited extent,” the army chief was quoted by the newspaper.
A spokesperson for the German defense ministry told POLITICO that it generally does not comment on “internal documents” and the “state of readiness.” However, the commitment for 2025 remains unchanged, the spokesperson added. The German army, the Bundeswehr’s land forces, declined to comment “on a classified document and its content.”
The operational readiness of a second division, which the Bundeswehr plans to provide from 2027, is also considered “unrealistic” according to the report, as the division will “not be sufficiently equipped with large-scale equipment in 2027.”
According to the report, Mais wrote that even pulling together all of the army’s assets would not make it possible to fully equip the 2025 division. The report cited continued underfunding and military support for Ukraine as strains that are already leading to a “clearly noticeable reduction in the army’s operational readiness.”
On the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Mais said on social media that the German land forces were “more or less bare” in view of the new threats.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
Meanwhile, officials in London, Brussels, Berlin, Dubai and Kyiv questioned Washington about how the information ended up online, who was responsible for the leak and what the U.S. was doing to ensure the information was removed from social media. They also questioned whether the Biden administration was taking steps to limit the distribution of future intelligence. As of Monday morning, U.S. officials had told allies the administration was investigating and that they were still trying to understand the full scope of the leak, the European officials said.
Ukraine has long worried about information it shares with the U.S. spilling out into the open. “This case showed that the Ukrainians have been absolutely right about that,” said one of the European officials, who like others was granted anonymity to speak about the sensitive leak. “Americans now owe the Ukrainians. They have to apologize and compensate.”
The saga has left the U.S. relationship with its allies in a state of crisis, raising questions about how Washington will correct what officials worldwide view as one of the largest public breaches of U.S. intelligence since WikiLeaks dumped millions of sensitive documents online from 2006 to 2021.
The distress over the leak is particularly problematic because the majority of the documents focus on the war in Ukraine — an effort the U.S. has repeatedly said hinges on collaboration among allies in NATO, Europe and elsewhere.
“The manner of the leak and the contents are very unusual,” said a former U.S. intelligence analyst who focused on Russia. “I can’t remember a time when there was this volume of a leak and this broad of a subject matter of authentic information that was just put on social media rather than say, the Snowden files, that went through a group of journalists first.”
The Pentagon, CIA, ODNI, and FBI declined to comment.
More than 100 U.S. intelligence documents were posted on Discord, a secure messaging app, as early as March 2 and contained sensitive, classified information about the war in Ukraine, Russian military activity, China and the Middle East. The photographed papers, which appeared to have been folded over and then smoothed out, contained top secret information, including from the Central Intelligence Agency.
POLITICO’s review of the documents shows some that appear to have been assembled into a briefing packet by the Joint Staff’s intelligence arm, known as J2, with summaries of global matters pulled from various U.S. intelligence systems. Some of the documents contain markings in the corners that correspond with specific wires with information that appear to be compiled in summary form — a practice often used by individuals inside the government to prepare briefing packets, the former U.S. intelligence analyst said.
It’s still unclear the extent to which the documents have been altered — and by whom. The documents posted in March do not appear to show any glaring alterations, but when some of those were reposted on Discord in April, at least one paper appears to have been altered to show significantly inflated Ukrainian death tolls.
Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said in a statement Sunday that the administration has assembled an interagency team “focused on assessing the impact these photographed documents could have on U.S. national security and on our allies and partners.” She confirmed that U.S. officials had engaged with “allies and partners” across the globe, adding that the department was still assessing the “validity” of the documents posted to social media.
It’s unclear who from the Biden administration is involved in that interagency effort. The senior U.S. official said only the highest levels of government were in discussions about how to manage the leak. Even those senior officials who work on Ukraine and Russia policy and on portfolios that pertain to countries mentioned in the documents did not know as of Sunday how the administration would respond.
“I have no idea what the plan is,” another senior U.S. official said. “I’d like to know myself how we’re going to handle.”
Meanwhile, in Kyiv where military leaders are busy preparing for a spring counteroffensive, senior officials blamed Russia for the leak and characterized it as a disinformation campaign.
“It is very important to remember that in recent decades, the most successful operations of the Russian special services have been carried out in Photoshop,” Andriy Yusov, the representative of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Main Directorate, said on Friday — adding that a preliminary analysis of the documents showed “distorted figures” on losses suffered by both Russia and Ukraine.
A senior Ukrainian lawmaker said the leak was “not seen as a big issue here.”
But elsewhere in Ukraine in the senior national security ranks, officials were angered by the leak, according to one of the European officials. While the documents are dated and likely have no immediate impact on the country’s battlefield operations, the publishing of the information was viewed internally as an embarrassment and potential long-term security problem for Ukraine’s military commanders.
It’s unclear the extent to which the U.S. will alter its intelligence sharing on the Ukraine war in the days and weeks ahead.
The U.S. has made it a habit of sharing intelligence with Ukraine and European allies since 2022. In the months leading up to the war, the U.S. intelligence community shared information with allies to build a coalition of support for Kyiv and to prepare targeted sanctions on Russian government entities and businesses. Senior U.S. officials have heralded that strategy as a major success — one that allowed the U.S., its allies in Europe and in Kyiv to better prepare for the eventual Russian assault.
Veronika Melkozerova contributed to this report.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Emine Dzhaparova
New Delhi: In what would be the first official visit from Ukraine more than a year after the Russian offensive, the country’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Emine Dzhaparova will arrive on a four-day official visit to India on Sunday.
Dzhaparova will be on an official visit to India from April 9-12, during which, she is likely to seek humanitarian aid for her country.
During the visit, she will hold talks with Sanjay Verma, secretary (West) in the External Affairs Ministry, where both sides are expected to discuss bilateral relations, and exchange views on the current situation in Ukraine and global issues of mutual interest.
She will also call on Minister of State for External Affairs Meenakshi Lekhi and meet Deputy National Security Adviser, Vikram Misri, official sources said.
“India shares warm and friendly relations and multifaceted cooperation with Ukraine. Over the last 30 years of establishing diplomatic relations, bilateral cooperation between the two countries has made significant progress in the areas of trade, education, culture and defence. The visit will be an occasion to further mutual understanding and interests,” an official statement said.
The materials that circulated in early March were uploaded on a Discord, an encrypted messaging app. They appear to be photos of slide deck printouts that were folded up and then smoothed out again. They have since been posted on other social media websites, including Twitter and Telegram.
It’s unclear who originally obtained the documents, who leaked them and the extent to which they’ve been altered. It’s also possible an even earlier version exists.
A senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive intelligence matter, said President Joe Biden’s team is “concerned” by the large document leak. “This could be a Russian disinformation operation,” the official continued, citing the manipulations to the documents. “Russia has a history of manipulating information for disinformation purposes.” The official wouldn’t detail when the administration first became aware of the leak.
There are discrepancies between the documents posted in March and those circulated this month, suggesting the earlier tranche could be the original versions — or at least closer to it.
The leak is one of the most high-profile breaches of military intelligence since the Russian invasion in 2022 and comes at a time when Ukraine is preparing to launch the spring offensive. The documents “represent a significant breach in security, which could compromise U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine,” said Mick Mulroy, a former DoD official and CIA officer.
The images that appeared online earlier this week show slides that were produced by the Joint Staff, but which have been heavily doctored to show inaccurate information, according to a second senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.
In reviewing the batch of documents that circulated on Discord and those that appeared in April on sites such as Telegram, Twitter and 4chan, POLITICO found that at least one section had been changed — the death tolls. The number of Ukrainian deaths is significantly higher in the later version.
However, there are irregularities in both the March and April versions. Not all of the documents are dated. One is dated as late as March 23 — about 20 days after someone posted them on Discord. Other pages are missing security markers and have sections replaced by white space.
The documents, which are at least five weeks old, are of limited value to Moscow as they show the conflict as a snapshot in time. Still, they may help Russian intelligence planners with establishing the expected burn rate for Ukrainian supplies, the second senior official said.
The Department of Defense is investigating the leak, which the New York Times first reported, the Pentagon said Thursday.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the department is reviewing the matter,” said DoD spokesperson Sabrina Singh. The Central Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
The early reaction from Capitol Hill has been fierce. “I’d fire anyone who leaks without authorization when they’re identified,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a close ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy and member of the House Armed Services Committee.
“I’m troubled by the potential leak and possible disinformation related to the documents,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee. “I look forward to hearing from the Department of Defense on steps they’re taking to investigate and address any wrongdoing.”
Other pages included in the March tranche include information about various countries, Jordan, Palestine and China.
Some of the Ukraine-related documents, marked “SECRET” and dated February and March, show American and NATO plans for training and arming Ukrainian forces ahead of a planned counteroffensive this spring.
One slide includes detailed plans for equipment Western countries will deliver to Ukraine this spring, such as the number of tanks and armored vehicles each nation is sending and the estimated date of arrival. It also shows the status of training programs by different NATO countries.
One document outlines what Western equipment Ukrainian brigades are receiving and when they’ll be trained. If that information is correct, it could provide useful intelligence to Moscow about new capabilities entering the battlefield this spring and summer. It is also a fascinating look into the international grab-bag of equipment the rapidly equipped Ukrainian army now fields.
The 82nd brigade, for example, looks to be an armored powerhouse. It will boast about 150 armored infantry carriers, including 90 U.S.-Stryker vehicles, 40 German-produced Marders, 24 U.S.-made M113 infantry carriers and 14 British Challenger tanks, giving the unit a powerful punch, according to the documents. The unit is currently being trained as the equipment continues to arrive.
Similarly, the 33rd brigade will have 32 Leopard tanks from Germany, Canada and Poland, alongside 90 American-made MRAP troop carriers. All the vehicles were slated to arrive for training in March and April, according to the documents.
Another slide shows the Joint Staff’s daily update of the conflict, including planned operations of U.S. forces in the surrounding area such as the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush and several submarines, the locations of which are rarely, if ever, publicized.
Others, marked “TOP SECRET,” show the U.S. military’s assessment of Russian and Ukrainian troop movements in key battlegrounds, including Bakhmut, Kharkiv and the Donetsk, on March 1.
Both the March and April tranches show updates from the battlefield from February that includes an allegation that “agents” of Ukraine attacked a Russian aircraft based in Belarus. The Ukrainian government has previously denied those claims. A spokesperson for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to a request for comment on the incident.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
Beijing: Visiting French President Emmanuel Macron has asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping “to bring Russia to its senses” in an effort to end the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to media reports.
Macron arrived in Beijing on Wednesday on his state-visit to China with high expectations for a possible breakthrough on working with the Asian giant to find solutions to end the war, reports CNN.
While Ukraine tops the agenda, Macron’s trip also has a strong economic component, with the President being accompanied by a delegation of some 50 business leaders, with some expected to finalise or even sign new deals during the trip.
He is also joined by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.
Macron and Xi engaged in closed-door talks on Thursday, which officials from the two nations described as being “frank” and “friendly”, the BBC reported.
Later in the day, the two Presidents joint addressed the media at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
In his opening statement, Macron told Xi: “I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses, and bring everyone back to the negotiating table.”
He went on to say Russia had “put an end to decades of peace in Europe” and that finding a “lasting peace” that respected internationally recognized borders was “an important issue for China, as much as it is for France and for Europe”.
“We can’t have a safe and stable Europe,” as long as Ukraine remained occupied, Macron said,adding that it was “unacceptable” that a member of the UN Security Council had violated the organisation’s charter.
On his part, the Chinese leader emphasised his country’s position on the Ukraine issue which is “consistent and clear”, Xinhua news agency reported.
“It is essentially about facilitating peace talks and political settlement. There is no panacea for defusing the crisis.”
Xi said it requires all parties to do their share and create conditions for ceasefire and peace talks through a buildup of trust and added “China supports Europe in playing its role in the political settlement of the crisis”.
He also said that peace talks should resume as soon as possible and urged the international community to “stay rational, exercise restraint, and avoid taking actions that might cause the crisis to further deteriorate or even spiral out of control”.
The Chinese leader reiterated that “nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought”, as well as opposed the “use of biological weapons under any circumstances”.
“China is ready to stay in touch with France and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis,” the President added.
Since the war began in February 2022, China has claimed neutrality and attempted to frame itself as an agent of peace.
It has also released its own peace plan which Western nations have been generally dismissive of, saying it sides too much with Russia.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed interest in it and called for direct talks with Xi, who is yet to publicly respond.
Macron’s trip, which comes four years since his last visit, marks the most politically significant interaction Xi has had with a Western leader since he met US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali last November.
Macron will continues his state visit on Friday with a trip to China’s southern commercial hub of Guangzhou, where he is expected to dine with Xi.
Beijing: Visiting French President Emmanuel Macron has asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping “to bring Russia to its senses” in an effort to end the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to media reports.
Macron arrived in Beijing on Wednesday on his state-visit to China with high expectations for a possible breakthrough on working with the Asian giant to find solutions to end the war, reports CNN.
While Ukraine tops the agenda, Macron’s trip also has a strong economic component, with the President being accompanied by a delegation of some 50 business leaders, with some expected to finalise or even sign new deals during the trip.
He is also joined by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.
Macron and Xi engaged in closed-door talks on Thursday, which officials from the two nations described as being “frank” and “friendly”, the BBC reported.
Later in the day, the two Presidents joint addressed the media at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
In his opening statement, Macron told Xi: “I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses, and bring everyone back to the negotiating table.”
He went on to say Russia had “put an end to decades of peace in Europe” and that finding a “lasting peace” that respected internationally recognized borders was “an important issue for China, as much as it is for France and for Europe”.
“We can’t have a safe and stable Europe,” as long as Ukraine remained occupied, Macron said,adding that it was “unacceptable” that a member of the UN Security Council had violated the organisation’s charter.
On his part, the Chinese leader emphasised his country’s position on the Ukraine issue which is “consistent and clear”, Xinhua news agency reported.
“It is essentially about facilitating peace talks and political settlement. There is no panacea for defusing the crisis.”
Xi said it requires all parties to do their share and create conditions for ceasefire and peace talks through a buildup of trust and added “China supports Europe in playing its role in the political settlement of the crisis”.
He also said that peace talks should resume as soon as possible and urged the international community to “stay rational, exercise restraint, and avoid taking actions that might cause the crisis to further deteriorate or even spiral out of control”.
The Chinese leader reiterated that “nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought”, as well as opposed the “use of biological weapons under any circumstances”.
“China is ready to stay in touch with France and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis,” the President added.
Since the war began in February 2022, China has claimed neutrality and attempted to frame itself as an agent of peace.
It has also released its own peace plan which Western nations have been generally dismissive of, saying it sides too much with Russia.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed interest in it and called for direct talks with Xi, who is yet to publicly respond.
Macron’s trip, which comes four years since his last visit, marks the most politically significant interaction Xi has had with a Western leader since he met US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali last November.
Macron will continues his state visit on Friday with a trip to China’s southern commercial hub of Guangzhou, where he is expected to dine with Xi.
BRUSSELS — Finland formally joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Tuesday, becoming its 31st member on the same day as NATO’s 74th anniversary.
The country applied to join NATO last May in a foreign policy U-turn prompted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s entry brings to the alliance a new 1,340-kilometer border with Russia — as well as its own significant military capabilities.
Finland and Sweden initially planned to join the alliance together. But Turkey and Hungary dragged out the ratification process for the two countries, ultimately signing off on Finland’s bid last week but leaving Sweden hanging in the wind.
On Tuesday this week, Turkey and Finland completed the final steps in the process, handing over accession documents to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Standing alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Finnish Foreign Minister PekkaHaavisto at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Blinken declared: “With receipt of this instrument of accession, we can now declare that Finland is the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty.”
The Finnish flag was then raised outside NATO headquarters.
“The era of military nonalignment in our history has come to an end,” Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said at the accession ceremony, which was attended by senior officials and the alliance’s foreign ministers. “A new era begins,” he continued.
“Finland’s membership,” the president emphasized, “is not targeted against anyone.”
But Niinistö also underscored the importance of Sweden soon joining the alliance.
“Finland’s membership is not complete without that of Sweden. Our persistent efforts for a rapid Swedish membership will continue,” the Finnish leader said.
In his speech, Stoltenberg also made a nod to Stockholm’s ongoing accession bid.
“This has been the fastest accession process in NATO’s modern history,” he said at the ceremony. “I look forward to welcoming Sweden into the alliance as soon as possible.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping showed no sign of changing his position over Russia’s war on Ukraine after talks Thursday with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.
On the second day of Macron’s state visit to China, Xi took his long-standing line on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — saying that “all sides” have “reasonable security concerns” — and gave no hint he would use his influence to help end the conflict.
“China is willing to jointly appeal with France to the international community to remain rational and calm,” was as far as the Chinese leader would go during a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
“Peace talks should be resumed as soon as possible, taking into account the reasonable security concerns of all sides with reference to the U.N. Charter … seeking political resolution and constructing a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework,” he added, sitting next to Macron.
The French president arrived in China on Wednesday in the hope of pushing China to use its leverage with Russia to end the conflict, and to get Beijing to speak out against the Kremlin’s threat to host nuclear missiles in Belarus.
During his private meeting with Xi, Macron raised Western concerns that Beijing will deliver weapons to China, according to a French diplomat with knowledge of the talks. But the French leader didn’t seem to get far.
“The president urged Xi not to make deliveries to Russia that would help its war against Ukraine. Xi said this war is not his,” the diplomat said, speaking anonymously to describe the private session.
The talks — which an Elysée Palace official nonetheless described as “frank and constructive” — ultimately lasted an hour and a half.
Afterward, the action moved to a signing ceremony, where officials and business leaders inked several deals, including the sale of 160 Airbus aircraft. According to the Elysée, the Chinese government approved the purchase of 150 A320 Neo planes and 10 A350s — a delivery that was part of a €36-billion deal Airbus announced last year. The information contradicted previous information from an Elysée official, who said a new sale was being negotiated.
During the deal-signing ceremony, every Chinese minister and business executive bowed deeply to Xi before signing the contracts with their French counterparts.
Xi and Macron then stepped in for their joint appearance, billed as a “press conference with Communist characteristics” — essentially meaning no press questions allowed.
The two leaders’ contrasting styles were immediately apparent. Xi read his carefully scripted remarks while staring straight ahead before ceding to Macron. The French leader then proceeded to speak for roughly twice as long as his host — a protocol faux pas that members of Xi’s Chinese entourage noticed.
Xi himself at times looked impatient and annoyed as Macron continued speaking. The Chinese leader heaved several deep sighs and appeared uncomfortable as Macron addressed him directly while apparently ad-libbing on the Ukraine war and their joint responsibility to uphold peace.
Macron also appealed to Xi to explicitly condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
“Speaking about peace and stability means talking about the war waged by Russia against Ukraine. You’ve made some important comments,” the French leader said. “This is a war that involves all of us because a member of the Security Council has decided to violate the U.N. charter. We cannot accept that.”
Macron and Xi spent one and a half hours in bilateral talks that were described as “frank and constructive” by an Elysée Palace official | POOL photo by Ng Han Guan/AFP via Getty Images
French lawmaker Anne Genetet, who also held talks Thursday with Chinese officials, admitted there were “no surprises” in the Chinese position on Ukraine, but argued it was still useful to lay some groundwork on the issue.
“It’s the beginning,” Genetet said. “There will be more talks and some private moments [between Xi and Macron]. Maybe we’ll get some other messages.”
Xi and Macron will head to the Chinese city of Guangzhou on Friday, where they will hold more talks and a private dinner.
However, in what will be read as a concession to the French, Xi did talk about the need for the warring parties to “protect victims including women and children,” which comes after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin over his role in illegally transferring Ukrainian children to Russia.
Xi didn’t explicitly mention Russia in his remarks, though. And in a move likely to irk U.S. officials, Xi also said that China and France should “resume exchanges between the legislative bodies and militaries.” He then included France in a common refrain that Chinese officials use to criticize the U.S.
“China and France shall continue to … oppose Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation, joining hands in addressing all types of global challenges,” Xi said.
On Thursday, Xi also held talks with Macron and with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was invited by Macron to showcase European unity but who will not take part in many of the events between the Chinese and French leaders.
Indeed, von der Leyen held her own solo press conference as night fell on Thursday in Beijing. Unencumbered by the formalities of a state visit, the EU leader took questions from reporters and sent several pointed messages to Beijing.
She warned it against aiding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine: “Arming the aggressor is a clear violation of international law — he should never be armed,” she said. “This would indeed significantly harm the relationship between the European Union and China.”
And she touched a diplomatic third rail: Taiwan.
“Nobody should unilaterally change the status quo by force in this region,” she said, alluding to China’s threats toward the self-governing island. “The threat of the use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable.”
Von der Leyen did echo Macron’s message, however, that China could play an important role in Ukraine, calling Beijing’s stance “crucial.”
She added: “We expect China will play its role and promote a just peace, one that respects Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.”
Clea Caulcutt and Jamil Anderlini reported from Beijing. Stuart Lau reported from Brussels.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
The Kremlin didn’t waste time blaming Ukraine for orchestrating the weekend bombing of a cafe in St. Petersburg, leaving what they claimed was 40 injured and high-profile ultranationalist military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky dead.
And Ukrainian officials were no less firm batting away the charge.
They blamed an “internal political fight” for the blast just a mile from where Vladimir Putin’s ex-wife lives in the historic heart of the Russian president’s hometown.
“Spiders are eating each other in a jar,” tweeted Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak.
Who should one believe?
“Every day in Russia, it’s a thriller series,” noted Ksenia Sobchak on her Telegram channel. The former Russian presidential candidate and self-exiled daughter of Putin’s onetime patron, Anatoly Sobchak, St. Petersburg’s first post-Soviet mayor, understands better than most that things are seldom as they seem in Putin’s Russia — if ever.
As in any good thriller, the assassination of Tatarsky boasts a cast of colorful characters, an enigmatic figure at the center, rollercoaster twists and turns, as well as distracting sub-plots delaying the denouement.
But in this whodunnit — as with so many in Russia — in the end we’re unlikely to discover the real identity of the murderer or their motives.
Like with the car bombing in August on the outskirts of Moscow of commentator Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, an ultranationalist ideologue, the list of possible perps is long. But that aside, little is certain or reliable — despite the wealth of CCTV footage that’s been released and the surprisingly quick arrest of a 26-year-old, Darya Trepova, until recently an assistant at a vintage clothing store.
She was seen giving Tatarsky a plaster figurine, which Russian investigators say was packed with TNT. In a video released by Russian authorities, Trepova is heard saying she “brought a statuette” inside the cafe, which “later exploded,” adding she would prefer to say later who asked her to give the blogger the gift. It is unclear whether Trepova was making her remarks under duress.
Last year, Trepova, who is married but separated from her husband according to two friends who spoke with POLITICO, was jailed for 10 days for protesting against Russia’s war on Ukraine. But for many reasons, she seems an unlikely bomber and was pictured leaving the cafe, Street Food Bar No 1 — once owned by Wagner paramilitary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and now run by his former son-in-law — as shocked and dazed as others caught in the blast.
Her friends, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, fearing they could be ensnared in the anti-terrorist investigation, say they find it unlikely she knew about the bomb, and her estranged husband, Dmitry Rylov, told a Russian media outlet that killing is just not in her character. “I am fully confident that she never could have done something like that willingly,” he said. “My wife was set up because she would never kill anyone.”
Darya Trepova, charged with terrorism over the April 2 bomb blast | Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
But that isn’t stopping Kremlin officials from painting her as a killer doing the bidding of Ukrainians in league with Russia’s anti-Putin opposition.
“The Kyiv regime supports terrorist actions,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow just hours after the dust had settled on the second assassination on Russian soil of a prominent advocate of the war on Ukraine.
And Russia’s National Anti-Terrorist Committee said the bombing was “planned by Ukrainian special services,” noting Trepova was an “active supporter” of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Opposition activist Ivan Zhdanov has warned that Russian authorities are likely to push the “Navalny narrative” to discredit dissidents and set the stage for show trials, including another one against the imprisoned opposition leader with the goal of extending his nine-year prison sentence.
Mysterious group claims responsibility
Amid all the speculation and counter-narratives being hurled around, things are getting very murky.
Midweek, Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian lawmaker turned dissident who lives in Kyiv, posted a statement from a mysterious group, the National Republican Army, saying it was responsible for the bombing of Trepova, “the well-known warmonger and war propagandist.”
The NRA, which also claimed responsibility for Dugina’s assassination, said: “This action was prepared and carried out by us autonomously, and we have no connection and have not received assistance from any foreign structures, let alone special services.”
But as with the Dugina bombing, the group offered nothing concrete to prove they were behind Tatarsky’s killing, and the claim is being greeted with skepticism by security experts.
The famed blogger was assassinated while giving a talk at the cafe on how Russian war correspondents and bloggers should write about the conflict. The event was hosted by the ultranationalist group Cyber Front Z, which said it had hired the cafe for the evening. “There was a terrorist attack. We took certain security measures but unfortunately, they were not enough,” the group said on Telegram.
Maxim Fomin, who was born into a miner’s family in Donetsk in 1982, chose to write under a nom de plume — Vladlen Tatarsky is a character in a novel by Victor Pelevin. He worked a variety of jobs, including in the mines, before being arrested for bank robbery. His nine-year prison sentence was curtailed when he was pardoned in 2014 by the self-styled head of the separatist “Donetsk Republic,” Alexander Zakharchenko. Tatarsky then enlisted in a local pro-Russia militia.
By 2016 he was blogging a thuggish but supercharged Russian nationalistic take on what it was like to fight in Donbas, relishing the violence, looting and drinking while cautioning would-be volunteers, “before you go to war, ask yourself if you really want to look into the abyss.”
Last year Tatarsky clocked up more than half a million subscribers to his Telegram channel. There they could read his gung-ho, macho chronicles of war, including his own experiences fighting, and rants against Ukraine. “Ukrainians should be cured of their Russophobia and nationalism, as our own forefathers once cured the excellent country called Germany of its mad Führer and his ideas,” he wrote.
A portrait of Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, whose real name is Maxim Fomin | Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images
Tatarsky became a star draw on Russia’s state television and last year he attended a Kremlin ceremony marking the illegal annexation of seized Ukrainian territory. In a video he posted from the event, he announced: “We’ll triumph over everyone, kill everyone, loot everything we want.”
While backing wholeheartedly the war on Ukraine, Tatarsky was, like other ultranationalists, increasingly vitriolic about the poor tactics of Russia’s generals, labeling them “idiots” and backing Prigozhin in the war of words between the Wagner boss and the country’s defense chiefs.
Some local media reports suggest Prigozhin was due to attend Tatarsky’s talk on Sunday, although the paramilitary leader made no mention of that on his Telegram channel when lamenting Tatarsky’s death.
Prigozhin also dismissed the idea that Ukraine had a hand in the killing of the solider-cum-blogger, saying, “I would not blame the Kyiv regime for these actions.” He suggested the killing was carried out by “a group of radicals,” but enigmatically added they’re “hardly related to the government,” as in the Russian government, leaving it hanging as to whether they had any such ties.
His remark has fueled speculation that the FSB or another Russian intelligence service may have had a hand in the blast, either tricking anti-Putin activists into a so-called false flag operation or partnering with some others in the fratricidal world of Russian ultranationalism to kill Tatarsky and blame it on Kyiv and Navalny. According to this theory, the FSB has a vested interest in disciplining Prigozhin — bombing the cafe associated with him sends a warning not to step too far out of line with his attacks on defense chiefs.
Conned into a bombing?
So how does Trepova fit into all of this? The very few friends willing to talk with the media say she could well have been conned into taking the figurine into the cafe. Some analysts agree. “It cannot be excluded that she did not know about the bomb,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder and head of R.Politik, a think tank. “Her subsequent actions suggest that no one had prepared her for a quick escape after the attack, which means she may have been used unwittingly.”
The video of Trepova looking as stunned as others struggling away from the bombed cafe goes some way to supporting that idea. She also hardly fits the profile of a determined bomber or even much of a radical, reading through her social media posts before many were expunged since she was detained very quickly after the bombing.
According to the Telegram-based independent news site Baza, she was known in St. Petersburg as a feminist and activist. But her posts on Vkontakte, or VK, a Russian equivalent of Facebook, included mainly selfies and angst-ridden remarks about her life and very little on social or political issues. She comes across as much younger than a twenty-something, more like a teenager.
The two friends who spoke to POLITICO agree, saying she was mainly interested in fashion and the cinema, could be flighty and entered lightly into her marriage, which fell apart quickly. A month ago, she abruptly decided to give up her job and move to Moscow, mentioning some kind of lucrative job. She only returned to St. Petersburg a few days before the bombing and stayed at a friend’s apartment. Her mother told reporters she saw her daughter just hours before the blast and she seemed her normal self.
There are also some suspicious anomalies, including the quickness of her identification, the speedy interrogations of her mother and sister, and her own arrest — all in a matter of hours after the bombing.
Russian security sources told RBC that they aren’t ruling out Trepova was manipulated. Nonetheless, on Tuesday she was charged with carrying out a terror attack and illegally carrying an explosive device for an organized group.
That still leaves a question: Who was this group? And then we go back into the dizzying narratives.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
ABOARD COTAM UNITÉ (FRANCE’S AIR FORCE ONE) — Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on his plane back from a three-day state visit to China.
Speaking with POLITICO and two French journalists after spending around six hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his trip, Macron emphasized his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a “third superpower.”
He said “the great risk” Europe faces is that it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy,” while flying from Beijing to Guangzhou, in southern China, aboard COTAM Unité, France’s Air Force One.
Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party have enthusiastically endorsed Macron’s concept of strategic autonomy and Chinese officials constantly refer to it in their dealings with European countries. Party leaders and theorists in Beijing are convinced the West is in decline and China is on the ascendant and that weakening the transatlantic relationship will help accelerate this trend.
“The paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers,” Macron said in the interview. “The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” he said.
Just hours after his flight left Guangzhou headed back to Paris, China launched large military exercises around the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory but the U.S. has promised to arm and defend.
Those exercises were a response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen’s 10-day diplomatic tour of Central American countries that included a meeting with Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy while she transited in California. People familiar with Macron’s thinking said he was happy Beijing had at least waited until he was out of Chinese airspace before launching the simulated “Taiwan encirclement” exercise.
Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade in recent years and has a policy of isolating the democratic island by forcing other countries to recognize it as part of “one China.”
Taiwan talks
Macron and Xi discussed Taiwan “intensely,” according to French officials accompanying the president, who appears to have taken a more conciliatory approach than the U.S. or even the European Union.
“Stability in the Taiwan Strait is of paramount importance,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied Macron for part of his visit, said she told Xi during their meeting in Beijing last Thursday. “The threat [of] the use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron in Guangdong on April 7, 2023 | Pool Photo by Jacques Witt / AFP via Getty Images
Xi responded by saying anyone who thought they could influence Beijing on Taiwan was deluded.
Macron appears to agree with that assessment.
“Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it,” he said.
“Europe is more willing to accept a world in which China becomes a regional hegemon,” said Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. “Some of its leaders even believe such a world order may be more advantageous to Europe.”
In his trilateral meeting with Macron and von der Leyen last Thursday in Beijing, Xi Jinping went off script on only two topics — Ukraine and Taiwan — according to someone who was present in the room.
“Xi was visibly annoyed for being held responsible for the Ukraine conflict and he downplayed his recent visit to Moscow,” this person said. “He was clearly enraged by the U.S. and very upset over Taiwan, by the Taiwanese president’s transit through the U.S. and [the fact that] foreign policy issues were being raised by Europeans.”
In this meeting, Macron and von der Leyen took similar lines on Taiwan, this person said. But Macron subsequently spent more than four hours with the Chinese leader, much of it with only translators present, and his tone was far more conciliatory than von der Leyen’s when speaking with journalists.
‘Vassals’ warning
Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries.
He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing.
Macron has long been a proponent of strategic autonomy for Europe | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
“If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won’t have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.
Russia, China, Iran and other countries have been hit by U.S. sanctions in recent years that are based on denying access to the dominant dollar-denominated global financial system. Some in Europe have complained about “weaponization” of the dollar by Washington, which forces European companies to give up business and cut ties with third countries or face crippling secondary sanctions.
While sitting in the stateroom of his A330 aircraft in a hoodie with the words “French Tech” emblazoned on the chest, Macron claimed to have already “won the ideological battle on strategic autonomy” for Europe.
He did not address the question of ongoing U.S. security guarantees for the Continent, which relies heavily on American defense assistance amid the first major land war in Europe since World War II.
As one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and the only nuclear power in the EU, France is in a unique position militarily. However, the country has contributed far less to the defense of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion than many other countries.
As is common in France and many other European countries, the French President’s office, known as the Elysée Palace, insisted on checking and “proofreading” all the president’s quotes to be published in this article as a condition of granting the interview. This violates POLITICO’s editorial standards and policy, but we agreed to the terms in order to speak directly with the French president. POLITICO insisted that it cannot deceive its readers and would not publish anything the president did not say. The quotes in this article were all actually said by the president, but some parts of the interview in which the president spoke even more frankly about Taiwan and Europe’s strategic autonomy were cut out by the Elysée.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
