Tag: Ukraine

Russian diamonds lose their sparkle in Europe

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In the European bubble in Brussels, diamonds aren’t anyone’s best friend anymore.
The Belgian government’s reluctance to ban imports of Russian diamonds, which would hurt the city of Antwerp, a global hub for the precious stones, has outraged Ukraine and its supporters within the EU.
Ukraine has been pushing to stop the import of Russian rough diamonds because the trade enriches Alrosa, a partially state-owned Russian enterprise.

While such a crackdown wouldn’t inflict the same damage on Vladimir Putin’s economy as a prohibition on all fossil fuels, for example, the continuing flow of Russian diamonds has become a symbol of Western countries putting their national interests above those of Ukraine.
New plans for a fresh round of sanctions against Putin have now reignited the debate over the morality of Europe’s trade in diamonds from Russia.
Belgium is fed up with being scapegoated. According to Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Putin’s ability to sell diamonds to all western markets now needs to be shut off.
“Russian diamonds are blood diamonds,” De Croo said in a statement to POLITICO. “The revenue for Russia from diamonds can only stop if the access of Russian diamonds to Western markets is no longer possible. On forging that solid front, Belgium is working with its partners.”
The West’s economic war against Russia has already had an impact. Partly because of U.S. sanctions, the Russian diamond trade in Antwerp has already been severely hit. But those rough Russian diamonds are diverted to other diamond markets, and often find their way back to the West, cut and polished.
That’s why Belgium is working with partners to introduce a “watertight” traceability system for diamonds, a Belgian official said. If it works, this could hurt Moscow more than if Washington or Brussels are flying solo.
“Europe and North America together represent 70 percent of the world market for natural diamonds,” the official said. “Based on this market power, we can ensure the necessary transparency in the global diamond sector and structurally ban blood diamonds from the global market. The war in Ukraine provides for a strong momentum.”
Sanctions at last?
Belgium’s offensive comes just when its position on sanctioning Russian diamonds is under renewed attack — not just from other EU countries and Belgian opposition parties, but also within De Croo’s own government.
According to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Putin’s ability to sell diamonds to all western markets now needs to be shut off | Laurie Dieffembacq/Belga Mag/AFP via Getty Images
The EU is preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia ahead of the first anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Countries such as Poland and Lithuania are again urging the EU to include diamonds. However, one EU diplomat said the discussion is now more an “intra-Belgian fight than a European one.”
De Croo leads a coalition of seven ideologically diverse parties. The greens and socialists within his government are pushing him to actively lobby for hitting diamonds in the next EU sanctions round.
In particular, Vooruit, the Dutch-speaking socialist party, is making a renewed push. Belgian MP Vicky Reynaert will be introducing a new resolution in the Belgian Parliament proposing an import ban.
“It’s becoming impossible to explain that Belgium is not open to blocking Russian diamonds,” Reynaert said. “We want Belgium to actively engage with the European Commission to take action.” Belgian socialist MEP Kathleen Van Brempt is pushing the same idea at the European level.
But the initiative from the socialists isn’t likely to deliver an import ban, or even import quotas, four officials from other Belgian political parties said. De Croo is now set on an international solution instead. No one expects the socialists to destabilize De Croo’s fragile Belgian coalition government over the issue of diamonds.
Even if all seven parties in the Belgian government did agree to hit Russian diamonds, there would be another key obstacle.
In the complicated Belgian political system, the regional governments would have a say as well. The government of the northern region of Flanders is against an import ban. That government is led by the Flemish nationalists, whose party president, Bart De Wever, is also the mayor of Antwerp. “Nothing will change their minds on this,” one of the Belgian officials said of the nationalists’ position.
Blood diamonds
Belgium hopes that by building an international coalition to trace Russia’s “blood diamonds” it will finally stop being seen as a roadblock to action.
The industry agrees. “Sanctions are not the solution,” said Tom Neys of the Antwerp World Diamond Centre. “An international framework of complete transparency, with the same standards of compliance as Antwerp, can be that solution,” he said.
Such a transatlantic plan would have a huge impact, according to Hans Merket, a researcher with the International Peace Information Service, a human rights nonprofit organization. “That would have much more effect than the current U.S. sanctions, which are being circumvented,” said Merket.
But the devil will be in the details. Will Belgium succeed in building a transatlantic coalition? Are consumers willing to pay more for their diamonds, or does it still risk diverting the goods to other markets where traders are less diligent?
One of the Belgian officials was doubtful of Belgium’s chances of success. If the international alliance falters, Belgium and the EU should consider moving ahead on their own to convince the rest of the world to act. “But let’s give De Croo a shot at this,” the official said.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 24, 2023
Scholz doubles down on refusal of fighter jets for Ukraine

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doubled down on his rejection of demands by Kyiv to supply Ukraine with fighter jets on the heels of Berlin’s agreement to send battle tanks.
“The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all,” Scholz said in an interview with Tagesspiegel published on Sunday. “I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems.”
His comments come after a top Ukrainian official said on Saturday that Kyiv and its Western allies were engaged in “fast-track” talks on possibly sending military aircraft as well as long-range missiles to help fight the invasion by Russia.
Scholz last week ruled out providing fighter jets, citing the need to prevent further military escalation. “There will be no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine,” he said on Wednesday, soon after Germany and the U.S. agreed to provide advanced tanks for Kyiv’s war effort.
Ukraine renewed its request for the fighter aircraft almost immediately after Berlin and Washington announced the tanks. Berlin said Germany and its European allies will send about 80 Leopard 2 tanks.
“If, as soon as a decision has been made, the next debate starts in Germany, this does not look very serious and shakes the confidence of the citizens in government decisions,” Scholz told Tagesspiegel. “Such debates should not be conducted for reasons of domestic political profiling. It is important to me now that all those who have announced their intention to supply battle tanks to Ukraine do so,” he said.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on Saturday that Kyiv was in talks with allies about aircraft, but that some partners have a “conservative” attitude on arms deliveries. Without citing any partners by name, he said this attitude was “due to fear of changes in the international architecture.”
Hans von der Burchard contributed to this report.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 24, 2023
Finland may need to join NATO without Sweden, foreign minister says

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Finland could reconsider its joint NATO bid with Sweden if Stockholm’s application is delayed further, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said Tuesday, a day after Turkey said it would not support the Swedish candidacy.
“You have to assess the situation,” Haavisto told Finnish public broadcaster Yle. “Has something happened that the longer term would prevent the Swedish project from going ahead? It [is] too early to take a position on that.”
Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO together last October, as a consequence of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey and Hungary are the last two members of the military alliance who still need to ratify the joint bid.
While Budapest has pledged it would sign off the bid, Ankara is yet to follow suit.
But relations between Sweden and Turkey have taken a turn for the worse in recent days, after a far-right Swedish politician burned a copy of the Quran during a protest in Stockholm last Saturday.
On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the burning was an insult, and that Sweden would not receive “any support from [Turkey] on the NATO issue.”
Haavisto seemed more restrained in an interview to Reuters, also on Tuesday morning. When asked if Finland could join NATO on its own, the Foreign Minister said: “I do not see the need for a discussion about that.”
Haavisto also told Reuters the three-way talks between Finland, Sweden and Turkey on NATO accession would be paused “for a couple of weeks” until “the dust has settled after the current situation.”
“No conclusions should be drawn yet,” Haavisto added.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 24, 2023
Ukraine wants to join EU within two years, PM says

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Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has a tight two-year timetable for securing EU membership that is bound to dominate discussions at this week’s historic EU-Ukraine summit, the first to take place on Ukrainian soil.
The problem? No one within the EU thinks this is realistic.
When EU commissioners travel to Kyiv later this week ahead of Friday’s summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the heads of the European Commission and Council, their main task is likely to involve managing expectations.

Shmyhal himself is imposing a tough deadline. “We have a very ambitious plan to join the European Union within the next two years,” he told POLITICO. “So we expect that this year, in 2023, we can already have this pre-entry stage of negotiations,” he said.
This throws down a gauntlet to the EU establishment, which is trying to keep Ukrainian membership as a far more remote concept.
French President Emmanuel Macron said last year it could be “decades” before Ukraine joins. Even EU leaders, who backed granting Ukraine candidate status at their summit last June, privately admit that the prospect of the country actually joining is quite some years away (and may be one reason they backed the idea in the first place.) After all, candidate countries like Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro have been waiting for many years, since 1999 in Ankara’s case.
Ukraine is a conundrum for the EU. Many argue that Brussels has a particular responsibility to Kyiv. It was, after all, Ukrainians’ fury at the decision of President Viktor Yanukovych to pull out of a political and economic association agreement with the EU at Russia’s behest that triggered the Maidan uprising of 2014 and set the stage for war. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it: Ukraine is “the only country where people got shot because they wrapped themselves in a European flag.”
Ukraine’s close allies in the EU such as Poland and the Baltic countries strongly support Kyiv’s membership push, seeing it as a democracy resisting an aggressor. Many of the EU old guard are far more wary, however, as Ukraine — a global agricultural superpower — could dilute their own powers and perks. Ukraine and Poland — with a combined population of 80 million — could team up to rival Germany as a political force in the European Council and some argue Kyiv would be an excessive drain on the EU budget.
Short-term deliverables
Friday’s summit in Kyiv — the first EU meeting of its kind to take place in an active war zone — will be about striking the right balance.
Though EU national leaders will not be in attendance, European Council officials have been busy liaising with EU member states about the final communiqué.
Some countries are insisting the statement should not stray far from the language used at the June European Council — emphasizing that while the future of Ukraine lies within the European Union, aspirant countries need to meet specific criteria. “Expectation is quite high in Kyiv, but there is a need to fulfill all the conditions that the Commission has set out. It’s a merit-based process,” said one senior EU official.
Ukraine is a conundrum for the EU. Many argue that Brussels has a particular responsibility to Kyiv | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
Still, progress is expected when Zelenskyy meets with von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.
Shmyhal told POLITICO he hopes Ukraine can achieve a “substantial leap forward” on Friday, particularly in specific areas — an agreement on a visa-free regime for industrial goods; the suspension of customs duties on Ukrainian exports for another year; and “active progress” on joining the SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area) payments scheme and the inclusion of Ukraine into the EU’s mobile roaming area.
“We expect progress and acceleration on our path towards signing these agreements,” he said.
Anti-corruption campaign
The hot topic — and one of the central question marks over Ukraine’s EU accession — will be Ukraine’s struggle against corruption. The deputy infrastructure minister was fired and deputy foreign minister stepped down this month over scandals related to war profiteering in public contracts.
“We need a reformed Ukraine,” said one senior EU official centrally involved in preparations for the summit. “We cannot have the same Ukraine as before the war.”
Shmyhal insisted that the Zelenskyy government is taking corruption seriously. “We have a zero-tolerance approach to corruption,” he said, pointing to the “lightning speed” with which officials were removed this month. “Unfortunately, corruption was not born yesterday, but we are certain that we will uproot corruption,” he said, openly saying that it’s key to the country’s EU accession path.
He also said the government was poised to revise its recent legislation on the country’s Constitutional Court to meet the demands of both the European Commission and the Venice Commission, an advisory body of the Council of Europe. Changes could come as early as this week, ahead of the summit, Shmyhal said.
Though Ukraine has announced a reform of the Constitutional Court, particularly on how judges are appointed, the Venice Commission still has concerns about the powers and composition of the advisory group of experts, the body which selects candidates for the court. The goal is to avoid political interference.
Shmyhal said these questions will be addressed. “We are holding consultations with the European Commission to see that all issued conclusions may be incorporated into the text,” he told POLITICO.
Nonetheless, the symbolic power of this week’s summit is expected to send a strong message to Moscow about Ukraine’s European aspirations.
European Council President Michel used his surprise visit to Kyiv this month to reassure Ukraine that EU membership will be a reality for Ukraine, telling the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) that he dreams that one day a Ukrainian will hold his job as president of the European Council.
“Ukraine is the EU and the EU is Ukraine,” he said. “We must spare no effort to turn this promise into reality as fast as we can.”
The key question for Ukrainians after Friday’s meeting will be how fast the rhetoric and promises can become a reality.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 24, 2023
European allies will send about 80 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Germany says

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BERLIN — Germany and its European partners plan to “quickly” send two Leopard 2 tank battalions to Ukraine — suggesting about 80 vehicles — the government in Berlin announced Wednesday, adding that Germany would provide one company of 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks “as a first step.”
Other countries likely to send Leopards to the war against Russia include Poland, Spain, Norway and Finland.
The decision by Chancellor Olaf Scholz — which emerged on Tuesday evening — marks a decisive moment in Western support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, which entered its 12th month this week and could soon heat up further as Moscow is expected to launch a new offensive.

Following Berlin’s move, other European countries like Spain and Norway reportedly agreed to join the Leopard tank alliance.
Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, welcomed the German announcement as a “first step.”
“Leopards are very much needed,” he said on Telegram.
Zelenskyy himself also welcomed the move on Twitter. “Sincerely grateful to the Chancellor and all our friends in” Germany, he said.
Russia’s Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechaev said in a statement the decision was “extremely dangerous,” and took the conflict “to a new level of confrontation.”
Kyiv had long urged Germany and other partners to supply its army with the powerful German-built Leopard 2 tank, but Scholz hesitated to take the decision, partly out of concern that it could drag Germany or NATO into the conflict. He remained adamant that such a move had to be closely coordinated and replicated by Western allies, most notably the United States.
The news of an imminent announcement by U.S. President Joe Biden to send “a significant number” of American M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine facilitated the chancellor’s decision. Scholz had come under huge pressure from European partners like Poland, as well as his own coalition partners in government, to no longer block the delivery of the German tank. Since they are German-made, their re-export needed the approval of the German government.
“This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We act internationally in a closely coordinated manner,” Scholz said in a written statement. He is also due to address the German parliament at 1 p.m. on Wednesday to further explain his decision.
“The goal is to quickly form two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine,” a German government spokesperson said.
“As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will also hand over Leopard-2 tanks,” the spokesperson added.
The spokesperson also said the training of Ukrainian crews on the tanks “is to begin rapidly in Germany.” Berlin would also provide “logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.”
Moreover, Germany will provide partner countries like Spain, Poland, Finland or Norway, which “want to quickly deliver Leopard-2 tanks from their stocks,” the necessary re-export permission, the spokesperson said.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg tweeted that he “strongly welcomes” Berlin’s decision. “At a critical moment in Russia’s war, these can help Ukraine to defend itself, win & prevail as an independent nation.”
Spain, which owns one of the largest fleets of Leopards in the EU, with 347 tanks, has previously said it would send tanks to Kyiv as part of a European coalition, according to El País.
The Norwegian government is considering sending eight of its 36 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but no decision has been made yet, Norwegian daily DN reported late Tuesday after a meeting of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs and defense, quoting sources close to the deliberation.
Portugal, which has 37 Leopards, could provide four tanks to the assembling European coalition, a source close to the government told Correio da Manhã late on Tuesday.
The Netherlands, which is leasing 18 Leopards from Germany, is also weighing supplying some of their armored vehicles, Dutch newswire ANP reported, quoting a government spokesperson. On Tuesday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he was “willing to consider” buying the tanks from Germany and shipping them to Ukraine, but that no decision had been made.
On Wednesday, the Swedish defense minister said that Sweden did not exclude sending some of its own tanks at a later stage, according to Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet.
Wilhelmine Preussen and Zoya Sheftalovich contributed reporting.
This article was updated.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 24, 2023
In divided Russia, ‘compassion has become civil resistance’

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MOSCOW — Malika sobbed as she laid flowers at the foot of a statue of a Ukrainian poet in the center of the Russian capital.
In addition to her sorrow — the act was a commemoration of the victims of a Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro — she had two reasons to also feel unease.
The first was the flashing blue lights of the police car parked a few meters away. In Russia, any expression of sympathy for Ukraine can be considered to discredit the Russian Armed Forces, and in the days before Malika’s visit, several people had been arrested.

“I despise them,” she said of the officers mulling around the memorial.
Her second reason for concern was her fellow Muscovites walking by. “Someone could overhear that I am playing Okean and notify the authorities,” she said, referring to the Ukrainian rock band playing through her headphones whose music has become the unofficial soundtrack of those who oppose the war.
According to Russian media, the police were first alerted to the makeshift memorial by nationalist vigilantes.
“That’s the country we live in now,” Malika said. “I look around me at these people who go about their lives as if nothing is happening, and I’m horrified.”
Even Malika’s ex-husband, with whom she shares a son, is “on the other side of the divide” when it comes to his views on the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault on Ukraine has severed his country from the Western world. It’s also created a rift within Russian society, pitting countrymen against each other and siloing them more than ever into information bubbles.
Although the accuracy of polling in Russia is often questioned, the survey results — whether from independent, state-financed or leaked secret surveys by the Kremlin — all suggest a majority of the Russian population supports the war, or at least is prepared to accept it as a fact of life.
From exile, independent Russian-language media continue to produce critical news, taking advantage of platforms such as YouTube and Telegram. Though they claim to cater mainly to people still inside Russia, they admit that in doing so they are mostly trying to retain their old audience.
Expanding that audience to pro-Kremlin Russians is a Herculean task: Just as opposition-leaning Russians eschew state television, those who support the Kremlin consume state-funded media as their main source of news, or follow a selection of pro-war channels on social media.
A woman embraces a Russian soldier in Moscow | Yuri Kadobnov/AFP via Getty Images
In real life, however, the bubbles overlap. The fault line runs through families, friends and workplaces.
For decades, Dmitry, a 45-year-old director who opposes the war, would gather with his longtime friends around Christmas time. This year he wasn’t invited to the reunion. “They know how I think, so in their own way they were trying to avoid an uncomfortable situation,” he said.
Similarly, a young female designer who asked to remain anonymous said she cut contact with her mother for months because the latter kept sending her links to pro-war YouTube videos.
“My family is like a microcosm of Russia as a whole and I don’t know how to live with it,” she said. “There is a complete lack of understanding between us, as if we’re from different planets.”
For Russian authorities, the societal divide is cause for celebration, as the result of their years-long concerted effort to marginalize opposition sentiment.
On Thursday, the Kremlin branded Meduza, by far the most-read independent news outlet among young Russians, an “undesirable organization.” Russians who share a link to an article now risk a fine or even criminal prosecution.
Nevertheless, there is still room for isolated acts of protest, as long as they stay within strict parameters.
In recent weeks, improvised memorials like that at the statue in Moscow to the victims of the strike on Dnipro, which killed аt least 46 civilians, have popped up in cities across Russia. Those like Malika who bring flowers or toys are largely left alone.
But the moment the sentiment is put into words, allowing bystanders to catch on to the message and perhaps even join in, the authorities move in.
A video widely circulated on social media showed a young woman named Yekaterina Varenik as she was detained by police after holding up a handwritten sign at the Moscow memorial. Before she was escorted off, she was allowed to deposit a red carnation at the statue, but not the sign.
On the video, a police officer can be heard repeating the words on the sign — “Ukrainians are not our enemies, but our brothers” — into his phone, presumably informing his superiors on the other end of the line.
A Moscow court later handed Varenik a 12-day prison sentence and a fine.
Andrei Kolesnikov, a political analyst whom authorities have labeled a “foreign agent,” said Varenik’s fate was illustrative of where Russia stands today.
“In the context of the war and at risk of prosecution, the simple expression of compassion has become an act of civil resistance,” he added.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 24, 2023
‘Poland would request authorisation from Germany to send tanks to Ukraine’

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Warsaw: Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that his government would request authorisation from Germany to send the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
But he also said that Poland would send the tanks to Ukraine, even if authorisation was not granted, reports the BBC.
The Prime Minister’s remarks came a day after German Foreign Minister Anna Baerbock said on Sunday that she “would not stand in the way” of Poland if it were to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, adding that Warsaw was yet to ask for export permission.
“For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way,” she told France’s LCI TV.
In response to her statement, Morawiecki said on Monday that “even if ultimately we did not get this consent, within the framework of a small coalition… we will still hand over our tanks, together with others, to Ukraine”.
Also on Monday, the Polish president’s foreign policy adviser, Marcin Przydacz, said he welcomed Baerbock’s announcement, but would prefer to hear Germany’s position confirmed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“It turns out that through talks and diplomatic actions, Poland is able to change the German position,” Przydacz told Polish Radio.
Speaking to the BBC on the development, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Germany had the power to “save the lives of many Ukrainian soldiers”.

He appealed to all countries willing to send Leopard 2 tanks to “immediately, officially request the German government to allow delivery of these tanks to Ukraine”.
“This is the move that will make the whole situation crystal clear and we will see where it takes Germany. This is something that needs to be done right away and everything will become obvious,” he told the BBC on Monday.
Kuleba later told Ukrainian national TV that he was “confident” Germany would supply the tanks eventually.
“We already received British Challenger. They said it would be impossible… Every time in the end we obtained the desired result. We will have it this time as well.”
Last week, Morawiecki had said that Poland was ready to provide 14 Leopard 2s for Ukraine.
Polish government official however opined that the 14 tanks will have a limited impact on Ukraine’s fighting capacity and that Warsaw would ultimately want Germany and other NATO allies to also send their own Leopards.
The Leopard 2 tanks were specifically designed to compete with the Russian T-90 tanks, which are being used in the ongoing invasion, the BBC reported.
There are believed to be more than 2,000 of them worldwide and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said about 300 of them would help ensure a Russian defeat.
Under current regulations, Germany must also sanction any re-export of its tanks by other countries, such as Poland.
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January 24, 2023
‘This is not a moment to slow down:’ U.S. says Ukraine making new gains

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The gains come as the U.S. and Western allies drastically ramp up support for Kyiv ahead of the expected spring counteroffensive. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin alluded to the upcoming operation last week after a meeting of defense ministers at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, noting that now is the time for the West to provide additional arms and training Ukraine needs to smash through Russian lines.
“We have a window of opportunity here, you know, between now and the spring when they commence their operation, their counteroffensive,” Austin said Friday after announcing a $2.5 billion package of aid that includes additional armored vehicles and artillery. “That’s not a long time, and we have to pull together the right capabilities.”
The new package included 59 Bradley Fighting Vehicles — in addition to the 50 provided in a previous tranche — 90 Stryker armored combat vehicles, 53 mine-resistant vehicles, 350 Humvees, as well as additional air defenses, missiles and artillery.
At the same time, the Pentagon has begun large-scale training of Ukrainian forces on advanced tactics at a U.S. base in Germany. The training will enhance their fighting skills as the war enters a new phase, officials say.
“This is not a moment to slow down when it comes to supporting Ukraine in their defense,” the senior military official said.
The gains near Kreminna also come as Ukrainian officials sound the alarm about Russia laying the groundwork for a massive new campaign in the spring. The Ukrainian military has recently reported seeing increased Russian movement of troops, military equipment and ammunition in the Luhansk area.
Kreminna is one of the towns along Russia’s Svatove-Kreminna defensive line, said Michael Kofman, research program director at CNA’s Russian Studies Program. Taking Kreminna would be an important step for any further advances into Luhansk, he said.
“Seizing Kreminna would put Ukrainian forces on a path towards threatening Rubizhne, and provide one of the potential axes of advance towards Starobilsk, an important Russian logistics hub,” he told POLITICO.

The fighting around Kreminna is a continuation of Ukraine’s counteroffensive that began in the fall, when Kyiv’s forces swept through the country’s northeastern Kharkiv region. Now, Ukrainian soldiers have turned south to focus on Luhansk, but are meeting stiff resistance as Russian forces dig in there.
Moscow has in recent weeks sent in tens of thousands of replacement troops to bolster their front lines after suffering heavy casualties, particularly in the area around the city of Bakhmut in the central Donetsk region, the official said.
The new troops are not necessarily arriving in organized units, but are “filling in gaps” where Russia needs replacements and reinforcements, the official said, noting that they are “ill-equipped, ill-trained, rushed to the battlefield.”
“A key aspect is despite these increased numbers, in terms of replacements, reinforcements, not a significant enhancement in terms of the training of those forces,” the official said.
In Kreminna, Kyiv is looking to “exploit opportunities along the Russian defensive lines,” the official continued.
Top Pentagon officials have said Ukraine is unlikely to push Russia out of the country altogether this year. But Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley suggested on Friday that Kyiv could reclaim significant territory, depending on the new equipment and training Ukrainians receive in the coming months.
The equipment in the new U.S. aid package, combined with the previous one, includes capabilities equivalent to at least two combined arms maneuver brigades or six mechanized infantry battalions, 10 motorized infantry battalions, and four artillery battalions, Milley said.
“Depending on the delivery and training of all of this equipment, I do think it’s very, very possible for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical- or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible,” Milley said. “Then we’ll see where it goes.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

January 24, 2023
Ukraine storing weapons at nuclear plants: Russia

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Moscow: Ukrainian forces are storing Western-supplied missiles and artillery shells in nuclear power plants, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin said on Monday, reports said.
He claimed that Kiev has been using the plants as cover for ammunition stockpiles, RT reported.
“There is credible information that Ukrainian troops are stockpiling the Western-supplied weapons and ammunition on the territory of nuclear power plants,” Naryshkin said, according to a statement on the intelligence service’s website.
He added that the armaments include rockets for US-made HIMARS launchers and missiles used by foreign air defence systems, as well as “large-caliber artillery shells”.
According to Naryshkin, several cars loaded with “lethal cargo” were delivered by rail to the Rovno Nuclear Power Plant in western Ukraine during the last week of December alone. “They rely on the calculation that the Russian Armed Forces would not strike nuclear power plants because they realise the danger of a nuclear disaster,” the intelligence chief said, RT reported.
Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of shelling the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which is Europe’s largest. It is located in the eponymous region which, along with three other former Ukrainian territories, joined Russia following referendums in September.
Kiev denied targeting the facility and claimed that Russia was using the plant as a base and cover for its soldiers. Russian officials said that heavy weapons have never been deployed to the site, and that a select number of armed security personnel were maintaining the safety of the plant, as it is located near the frontline, RT reported.

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January 23, 2023
Germany ready to let Poland send Leopard tanks to Ukraine

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Berlin: Germany is ready to authorize Poland to send German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine to help Kyiv fight the Russian invasion if Warsaw makes such a request, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told French Television LCI on Sunday, reported CNN.
“The question has not been asked. If we were asked the question, we would not stand in the way,” Baerbock said in an interview on the sides of a French-German cabinet meeting celebrating 60 years of the Elysee treaty.
When asked for clarification by the interviewer if she meant Germany would not stop Poland from sending battle tanks to Ukraine, Baerbock said, “You have understood me correctly.”
Her comments come as Berlin resists pressure from Kyiv to send some of its own stocks of the Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Poland has announced it is ready to deliver 14 Leopard tanks to Kyiv but Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said he was waiting for “a clear statement” from Berlin whether countries that have the Leopards can transfer them to Ukraine, reported RFI.
“We have rules, the so-called end-use controls,” Baerbock said of Germany’s hesitancy to send combat tanks into the war zone.
According to Germany’s basic law, “weapons intended for warfare may be manufactured, transported, and marketed only with the authorization of the federal government,” reported CNN.
Under the “War Weapons Control Act” the German government must consent to any delivery of German-made weapons to a war zone.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz must consent and the final decision rests with him, according to German law.
Scholz has been heavily criticized by his liberal coalition partner and many others for his stance on sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday said that there was “no alternative” but for the West to give Ukraine heavy tanks.
Meanwhile, a Russian politician warned that the continued delivery of weapons to Ukraine “will lead to a global catastrophe,” reported CNN.
“Delivery of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime will lead to a global catastrophe,” Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, wrote on his Telegram channel Sunday.
Volodin said the delivery of weapons will lead to Russian retaliation “using more powerful weapons.”
Volodin comments come after NATO partners met at Ramstein air base in Germany Friday to discuss more military aid for Ukraine.
However, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the availability of modern weapons in the Ukrainian army will not lead to an escalation of war with Russia, in a Sunday address to students and professors at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, reported CNN.
“Do not listen to the arguments of those who talk about escalation. People worry in the west that things are going to escalate if we give Ukraine the weapons,” Johnson said. “I was in Bucha. How can we escalate the confrontation, where one side is already using the most advanced modern aircraft to bomb residential areas? Ukraine deserves all the help possible.”
Johnson went on to say that Ukraine should “seek its destiny in NATO” because it not being in NATO “has led to the worst war in Europe in the past 80 years.”
Johnson said the whole world “owes Ukraine a debt,” because it is fighting for everybody who can potentially become “a victim of Vladimir Putin’s aggression.” He said Ukraine “fights for freedom around the world” and that the British people support Ukraine “a 100 pc.”
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

January 23, 2023