Tag: Taiwan

Chinese invasion of Taiwan could cost world economy USD 1 trillion: US intelligence

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Washington: US intelligence officials predicted that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or an attack as early as 2025 on the island nation could cost the world economy USD 1 trillion, reported Taipei Times.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented what she called a “general estimate” during testimony before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
“A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could halt production by the world’s largest advanced chipmaker, wiping out up to USD 1 trillion per year from the global economy in the first few years,” said the top US intelligence official.

The advanced semiconductors produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) are used in 90 per cent of “almost every category of electronic device around the world,” said Haines.
Haines said that Chinese President Xi Jinping is leaning toward unifying with Taiwan in a “peaceful” manner, but is also preparing possible military action to achieve that goal, reported Taipei Times.
“I think we continue to assess that he [Xi] would prefer to achieve unification of Taiwan through peaceful means,” she said.
If a Chinese invasion stopped TSMC from producing those chips, “it will have an enormous global financial impact that I think runs somewhere between USD 600 billion to USD 1 trillion on an annual basis for the first few years,” she said.
“It will also have an impact on [US] GDP if there was such an invasion of Taiwan and that [TSMC’s production] was blocked,” Haines said.

However, Haines said it would also have a large impact on China’s economy, reported Taipei Times.
To deal with that risk, TSMC is investing USD 40 million to build two sophisticated wafer fabs in Arizona at Washington’s urging.
A fab using the 4-nanometer process is scheduled to begin mass production next year, and the other, using the more advanced 3-nanometer process, is slated to mass-produce chips starting in 2026, reported Taipei Times.
Haines’ comments came after US Senator Rick Scott raised concerns about the possibility of China invading Taiwan, citing Xi’s remarks in the past year suggesting that he was preparing the Chinese population for a war against Taiwan.
Xi has directed the Chinese military to “provide him with a military option, essentially, to be able to take it without concern of [US] intervention,” which is expected to “have a meaningful impact on his capacity to do so,” Haines said.
Also at the hearing, US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier appeared to have greater concern than Haines about a possible invasion of Taiwan, saying that Xi’s rhetoric has been “picking up” after he assumed his third term as president, reported Taipei Times.
Berrier provided a list of possible invasion dates ranging from 2025 to 2049. “I think the bottom line is he’s told his military to be ready,” Berrier said.
Haines said the relationship between the US and China has become “more challenging,” citing a speech made by Xi in March in which he blamed Washington for suppressing Beijing, reflecting his distrust of the US and his belief that Washington is seeking to contain his country, reported Taipei Times.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 8, 2023
Chinese TB-001 drone flies around Taiwan in rare encirclement, says island’s military

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A Chinese combat drone that state media says can carry a heavy weapons payload has flown around Taiwan, according to the island’s defence ministry.
The ministry said a TB-001 drone was one of 19 military aircraft that had entered the island’s air defence identification zone in 24 hours.
It flew around Taiwan, first crossing the Bashi Channel that separates Taiwan from the Philippines, then up the east of Taiwan before crossing back towards the Chinese coast.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) regularly sends aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, or ADIZ, but full circuits around the island are extremely rare.
Chinese state media has referred to the TB-001 as the “twin-tailed scorpion” and has shown pictures of it with missiles under its wings, saying it is capable of high-altitude, long-range missions.
China’s air force has flown what it calls “island encirclement” missions with the nuclear-capable H-6 bomber.
No shots were fired and Chinese aircraft have not flown in Taiwan’s airspace. The ADIZ, is a broader area Taiwan monitors and patrols to give its forces more time to respond to threats.
China has increased military pressure on democratically governed Taiwan over the past three years as it tries to force Taipei to accept Beijing’s sovereignty claims. Taiwan’s government rejects being part of China and says only the island’s people can decide their future.

This month China staged war games around Taiwan after the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, met with Kevin McCarthy, speaker of the US House of Representatives, in Los Angeles.
The drills included deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group led by the Shandong, one of China’s two aircraft carriers. Japan’s defence ministry, which also monitors activity in the region, this week said the Shandong ran a record 620 fighter jet launches across 18 days in April.
Chinese military aircraft have since 2022 regularly crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which serves as an unofficial barrier between the two sides, though China says it does not recognise this.
Thursday’s sorties included fighter jets and reconnaissance aircraft, many of which crossed the media line. Taiwan’s defence ministry also detected six PLA ships, but did not give locations. It said defence aircraft, navy vessels, and land-based missile systems had been “tasked in response”, a usual reaction to the PLA’s ADIZ incursions.
With Reuters
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( With inputs from : www.theguardian.com )

April 28, 2023
If China invaded Taiwan it would destroy world trade, says James Cleverly

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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would destroy world trade, and distance would offer no protection to the inevitable catastrophic blow to the global economy, the UK’s foreign secretary, James Cleverly, warned in a set piece speech on Britain’s relations with Beijing.
In remarks that differ from French president Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to distance Europe from any potential US involvement in a future conflict over Taiwan, and which firmly support continued if guarded engagement with Beijing, Cleverly said “no country could shield itself from the repercussions of a war in Taiwan”.
He added that he shuddered to think of the financial and human ruin that would ensue.
Urging no side to take unilateral action to change the status quo, he asserted the relevance of Taiwan to UK interests saying: “About half of the world’s container ships pass through these vital waters [the Taiwan Strait] every year, laden with goods bound for Europe and the far corners of the world. Taiwan is a thriving democracy and a crucial link in global supply chains, particularly for advanced semi-conductors.
“A war across the Strait would not only be a human tragedy, it would destroy world trade worth $2.6 trillion, according to Nikkei Asia. No country could shield itself from the repercussions.
“Distance would offer no protection from this catastrophic blow to the global economy – and to China most of all.”
He added: “As we watch new bases appearing in the South China Sea and beyond, we are bound to ask ourselves: what is it all for? Why is China making this colossal investment?
“If we are left to draw our own conclusions, prudence dictates that we must assume the worst.”

Overall Cleverly set himself apart from advocates of economic decoupling including some of his own backbenchers saying he wanted Britain to “engage directly with China, bilaterally and multilaterally, to preserve and create open, constructive and stable relations, reflecting China’s global importance”.
Although he said the mass incarceration in Xinjiang cannot be ignored or brushed aside, he said: “We believe in a positive trade and investment relationship, whilst avoiding dependencies in critical supply chains.
“We want British companies to do business in China – just as American, ASEAN, Australian and EU companies do – and we will support their efforts to make the terms work for both sides, pushing for a level playing field and fairer competition.”
China he acknowledged represented a ruthlessly authoritarian tradition utterly at odds with Britain’s own. “But we have an obligation to future generations to engage because otherwise we would be failing in our duty to sustain – and shape – the international order. Shirking that challenge would be a sign not of strength but of weakness.”
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Invasion of Taiwan would be a ‘horror scenario’, says German foreign minister – video
At the same time he balanced this by saying: “The UK had a right to protect core interests too, and one of them is to promote the kind of world that we want to live in, where people everywhere have a universal human right to be treated with dignity, free from torture, slavery or arbitrary detention.”
He insisted, without going into details: “We are not going to be silent about interference in our political system, or technology theft, or industrial espionage. We will do more to safeguard academic freedom and research.” He did not repeat the promise by Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, to close Chinese-controlled Confucius Institutes at British universities.
He also urged China in its relations with Russia over Ukraine not to allow Vladimir Putin to trample upon China’s own stated principles of non-interference and respect for sovereignty.
He told China: “A powerful and responsible nation cannot simply abstain when this happens, or draw closer to the aggressor, or aid and abet the aggression. The rights of a sovereign nation like Ukraine cannot be eradicated just because the eradicator enjoys a ‘strategic partnership’ with China.”
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( With inputs from : www.theguardian.com )

April 26, 2023
Europe’s disunity over China deepens

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BRUSSELS — Just when you thought Europe’s China policy could not be more disunited, the two most powerful countries of the European Union are now also at odds over whether to revive a moribund investment agreement with the authoritarian superpower.
For France, resuscitating the so-called EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) is “less urgent” and “just not practicable,” according to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in favor of “reactivating” the agreement, which stalled soon after it was announced in late 2020 after Beijing imposed sanctions on several members of the European Parliament for criticizing human rights violations.
Speaking to POLITICO aboard his presidential plane during a visit to China earlier this month, Macron said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed the CAI, “but just a little bit.”
“I was very blunt with President Xi, I was very honest, as far as this is a European process — all the institutions need to be involved, and there is no chance to see any progress on this agreement as long as we have members of the European Parliament sanctioned by China,” Macron told POLITICO in English.
Beijing has proved skilled at preventing the EU from developing a unified China policy, using threats ranging from potential bans on French and Spanish wine to warnings that China will buy American Boeing instead of French Airbus planes.
Disagreement over the CAI is only one further example of divergence over China policy in Europe, where Beijing has expertly courted various countries and played them against each other in games of divide-and-rule over the past decade.
Scholz seeks CAI thaw
Following seven years of tortuous negotiations, the CAI was rushed through by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the end of Germany’s six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU in late 2020.

Merkel sought to seal the deal and ingratiate herself with Beijing before Washington could apply pressure to block it, causing tension with the incoming administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.
Germany has long been the most vocal cheerleader for the CAI due to its scale of manufacturing investments in China, particularly in the car-making and chemicals sectors.
The CAI would have made it marginally easier for European companies to invest in China and protect their intellectual property there. But critics decried weak worker protections and questioned to what degree it could be enforced.
Xi Jinping during Macron’s visit to Beijing | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
Soon after the agreement was announced, Beijing imposed sanctions on several European parliamentarians in retaliation for their criticism of human rights abuses in the restive region of Xinjiang.
The deal, which requires ratification by the European parliament, went into political deep freeze.
Scholz, who at times seems to mimic the more popular Merkel, would like to take CAI “out of the freezer” — but has cautioned that “this must be done with care” to avoid political pitfalls, according to a person he briefed directly but who was not authorized to comment publicly.
“It is surprising Scholz still thinks this is a good idea, despite the vastly changed context from a couple of years ago,” said one senior EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to freely discuss sensitive diplomatic issues.
EU branches split
Not only are EU countries divided on how to approach CAI — there’s also a rift among institutions in Brussels.
With its members sanctioned, the European Parliament is certain to reject any fresh attempt to ratify the CAI.
But like Scholz, European Council President Charles Michel also hopes to resuscitate the deal. He has discussed this with Chinese communist leaders, including during his solo visit to Beijing late last year, according to a senior EU official familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, however, has stymied Michel’s attempts to place the agreement back on the agenda in Brussels. Von der Leyen is far more skeptical of engaging with China, citing increasing aggression abroad and repression at home.
Von der Leyen accompanied Macron on part of his China trip earlier this month, but said of her brief meeting with Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials that the topic of CAI “did not come up.” She has publicly argued that the deal needs to be “reassessed” in light of deteriorating relations between Beijing and the West.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have made overtures to Michel and other sympathetic European leaders, suggesting China could unilaterally lift its sanctions on members of the European Parliament — but only with a “guarantee” the CAI would eventually be ratified.
A spokesperson for Michel said an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers will discuss EU-China relations on May 12. “Following that discussion we will then assess when the topic of China is again put on the table of the European Council,” he said.
During the same interview with POLITICO, Macron caused consternation in Western capitals when he said Europe should not follow America, but instead avoid confronting China over its stated goal of seizing the democratic island of Taiwan by force.
Manfred Weber, head of the center-right European People’s Party, the largest party in the European Parliament, described the French president’s comments as “a disaster.”
In an an interview with Italian media, he said that the remarks had “weakened the EU” and “made clear the great rift within the European Union in defining a common strategic plan against Beijing.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

April 21, 2023
Macron doubles down on French ‘independence’ amid pension reform crisis

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PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron drew a connection between his country’s pension reform and Europe’s independence from other countries, during a televised address Monday evening.
“We are a people who intend to control and choose our destiny, who do not want to depend on anyone, neither on the forces of speculation, nor on foreign powers, nor on wills other than our own, and we are right,” Macron said during the 15-minute speech.
The French head of state’s TV appearance was the first time he has addressed the nation since he signed his contentious pension reform — which raises the retirement age from 62 to 64 — into law amid a prolonged political and social crisis.
The president’s reference to independence from “foreign powers” echoed controversial comments he made earlier this month in an interview with POLITICO and French daily Les Echos. On his way back from China, the French president created a stir by saying Europe should avoid being the United States’ follower — including on the matter of Taiwan’s security.
“One cannot declare its independence: It is built through ambitions, efforts at the national and European level, in terms of knowledge, research, attractiveness, technology, industry, defense. And it is also financed collectively through work,” Macron said Monday.
European and French independence, he added, is what will “allow us to obtain more justice” and decrease inequalities.
The bill was greenlit by the country’s top constitutional court on Friday, crushing hopes of opposition parties and unions that the reform could still be stopped.
The French president, who faces the prospect of a gridlocked parliament, said his government would focus on labor, law and justice, and “progress” in the coming months, with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne expected to present a more detailed roadmap next week.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

April 17, 2023
China to quickly gain air superiority in Taiwan attack, US leaks warn

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London: China would probably establish air superiority very rapidly in any attack on Taiwan, according to leaked US intelligence assessments that raise disturbing questions about the self-ruled island’s military readiness, media reports said.
The documents emerged as G7 foreign ministers met to discuss a common China strategy and Beijing briefly halted flights over part of the East China Sea on Sunday.
The classified documents seen by the Washington Post reveal that Taiwan’s military leaders doubt their air defences can “accurately detect missile launches” and that only about half of the island’s aircraft are capable of effectively engaging the enemy.

The documents also said Taiwan feared moving its aircraft to shelters could take up to a week, leaving them vulnerable to missile strikes, and that China’s use of civilian ships for military purposes was hampering US intelligence’s ability to predict an invasion, The Guardian reported.
Pentagon analysts concluded China’s air force would find it far easier to establish early air superiority than Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine, it added.
China views Taiwan as part of its territory to be retaken one day, by force if necessary. Chinese President Xi Jinping has expanded and modernised the People’s Liberation Army and China’s armed forces are thought to be 14 times the size of Taiwan’s.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said in a statement to the Washington Post that it “respects outside opinions about its military preparedness” but its response to recent Chinese military exercises showed officers were “absolutely capable, determined and confident”.
Taiwan last week staged large-scale emergency response drills enacting scenarios including missile and chemical weapons attacks, after China held its latest military exercises around the island, 100 miles (160km) off the Chinese mainland.

Flights out of northern Taiwan were delayed on Sunday morning after China launched a satellite rocket that dropped debris into waters north of the capital, Taipei. Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said the incident posed no threat to “our nation’s territory”, The Guardian reported.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

April 16, 2023
Up close in Taiwan with the Republican who compared Xi to Hitler

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McCaul is hardly alone in making saber-rattling comments about Taiwan while visiting East Asia. Most provocative may have been Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of State who previously served with McCaul in the House. Pompeo last year used a trip to Taiwan to call for the U.S. to recognize the island as an independent nation — the ultimate diplomatic red line for mainland China.
President Joe Biden has also engaged in McCaul-style gestures toward ditching strategic ambiguity. He has repeatedly indicated that the U.S. would defend Taiwan from an invasion, only to have his aides walk it back in the press.
But McCaul’s remarks underscored a reality that the Brookings Institution warned about in an analysis published while he was on the ground: American politicians who go too far in defense of Taiwan run the risk of drawing unwanted Chinese attention to the island.
A “client” state like Taiwan might normally enjoy support from a “patron” state like America, the Brookings authors wrote. But when “its security environment appears to be deteriorating, a client might not welcome signals of support from the patron if the client considers those signals to be so provocative that they undermine its security.”
The security risks are real. Hours before McCaul met with Tsai, China announced three days of live-fire military exercises around the island. Beijing imposed sanctions on the hosts of Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy, bringing U.S.-China relations to a recent low point, and later separately announced sanctions against McCaul, which he deemed a “badge of honor” in a statement.
But in an interview, McCaul didn’t back down. He stood by his comparison between Xi and Hitler, arguing that Russia and China together presented a threat unseen in generations.
“We really haven’t seen anything quite like this, on this scale and a threat to Europe and the Pacific, since World War II,” the 61-year-old said.
McCaul has made it his personal mission to enlist other Republicans in support of hawkish foreign policy, even as loud voices on the right — including Donald Trump — have questioned America’s interest in countering China and confronting Russia’s invasion. He brought fellow Texas GOP Reps. Keith Self and Jake Ellzey with him on a recent Ukraine trip, part of what Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) called his effort to “educate” Republican colleagues.

He’s particularly active on the U.S. airwaves.
“I joke with Mike because every time I turn on the Sunday TV shows, I’ll see McCaul. And then I’ll click over to the next channel, and I’ll see McCaul,” Fitzpatrick said in an interview. “He gets more TV time than the speaker.”
In the interview, McCaul notably declined to criticize Trump’s approach to both Xi and Putin. Trump “at least projected strength,” the GOP lawmaker said, alleging that Biden “seems so weak” compared with his predecessor.
McCaul even argued that Trump’s “personality probably prevented an invasion” of Ukraine during his administration and “certainly would have deterred Chairman Xi from invading Taiwan” — both dubious claims, given the former president’s past praise for both Xi and Putin.
The former president’s polling lead in the 2024 primary could soon force McCaul and other GOP backers of Ukraine to grapple with a standard-bearer whose foreign policy views clash with theirs.
While McCaul steered clear of Trump, he conceded that he is not certain Congress would be prepared to vote to authorize or otherwise fund a U.S. military response should Beijing escalate: “I do worry about that,” he said.
Even as he reiterated one-on-one that he wouldn’t shrink from supporting a military response against China, he used a public press conference in Taipei to sound a note of characteristic bravado that may or or may not go over well in Beijing.
Asked by a reporter near the end of his trip if officials like Tsai had shared concern privately about his harsh rhetoric, McCaul responded that the Taiwanese president “welcomes” the American lawmakers’ backing, particularly because it was bipartisan.
“Obviously,” he added about China, “you don’t want to poke the Panda.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

April 15, 2023
China backs Macron’s remarks against following US policy on Taiwan

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Beijing: China on Wednesday waded into controversy over French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments in which he called for greater “European sovereignty” by not following the US policy over China and Taiwan.
“The question we need to answer, as Europeans, is the following: Is it in our interest to accelerate (a crisis) on Taiwan? No,” Macron was quoted as saying in the interview after his recent visit to China during which he held extensive talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing and later Guangzhou.
“The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” Macron said.

The comments were made last Friday before China launched large-scale combat drills around Taiwan that simulated sealing off the island in response to the Taiwanese president’s trip to the US last week.
Macron’s comments raised questions over the EU’s relationship with both the US and China.
“We have noticed that President Macron’s view that Europe should insist on strategic autonomy and avoid getting involved in group confrontations has attracted some criticism, especially from the United States. We are not surprised by this,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told the media here while responding to the controversy over the French President’s comments.
“What we want to tell you is that some countries do not want to see other countries become independent, and always want to coerce other countries to obey their will,” he said.
“But adhering to strategic autonomy will win more respect and more friends, while coercion and pressure will only result in more resistance and opposition,” Wang said.

He said Macron paid a successful visit to China and the two sides reached important consensus, injecting new impetus into deepening China-France and China-EU cooperation.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

April 12, 2023
UK’s Truss warns of Western ‘weakness’ over China in wake of Macron visit

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LONDON — Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss will take a not-so-subtle swipe at Emmanuel Macron over his attempt to build bridges with Beijing.
In a Wednesday morning speech to the Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington, D.C. Truss will argue that too many in the West have “appeased and accommodated” authoritarian regimes in China and Russia.
And she will say it is a “sign of weakness” for Western leaders to visit China and ask premier Xi Jinping for his support in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — just days after Macron’s own high-profile trip there.
While Truss — who left office after just six weeks as crisis-hit U.K. prime minister — will not mention Macron by name, her comments follow an interview with POLITICO in which the French president said Europe should resist pressure to become “America’s followers.”
Macron said: “The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction.”
Macron has already been criticized for those comments by the IPAC group of China-skeptic lawmakers, which said Monday his remarks were “ill-judged.”
And Truss — who had a frosty relationship with Macron during her brief stint in office last year — will use her speech to urge a more aggressive stance toward both China and Russia.
“We’ve seen Vladimir Putin launching an unprovoked attack on a free and democratic neighbor, we see the Chinese building up their armaments and their arsenal and menacing the free and democratic Taiwan,” Truss will say according to pre-released remarks. “Too many in the West have appeased and accommodated these regimes.”

She will add: “Western leaders visiting President Xi to ask for his support in ending the war is a mistake — and it is a sign of weakness. Instead our energies should go into taking more measures to support Taiwan. We need to make sure Taiwan is able to defend itself.”
Relations between Macron and Truss’ successor Rishi Sunak have been notably warmer. The pair hailed a “new chapter” in U.K.-France ties in March, after concluding a deal on cross-Channel migration.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

April 11, 2023
Europe’s eastern half claps back at Macron: We need the US

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Stop driving Europe away from the United States, dismayed central and eastern European officials fumed on Tuesday as French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments continued to ripple across the Continent.
Macron jolted allies in the EU’s eastern half after a visit to China last week when he cautioned the Continent against getting pulled into a U.S.-China dispute over Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own, imploring his neighbors to avoid becoming Washington and Beijing’s “vassals.”
The comments rattled those near the EU’s eastern edge, who have historically favored closer ties with the Americans — especially on defense — and pushed for a hasher approach to Beijing.

“Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Tuesday before flying off to the U.S., of all places, for a three-day visit.
Privately, diplomats were even franker.
“We cannot understand [Macron’s] position on transatlantic relations during these very challenging times,” said one diplomat from an Eastern European country, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely express themselves. “We, as the EU, should be united. Unfortunately, this visit and French remarks following it are not helpful.”
The reactions reflect the long-simmering divisions within Europe over how to best defend itself. Macron has long argued for Europe to become more autonomous economically and militarily — a push many in Central and Eastern Europe fear could alienate a valuable U.S. helping keep Russia at bay, even if they support boosting the EU’s ability to act independently.
“In the current world of geopolitical shifts, and especially in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is obvious that democracies have to work closer together than ever before,” said another senior diplomat from Eastern Europe. “We should be all reminded of the wisdom of the first U.S ambassador to France Benjamin Franklin who rightly remarked that either we stick together or we will be hanged separately.”
Macron, a third senior diplomat from the same region huffed, was freelancing yet again: “It is not the first time that Macron has expressed views that are his own and do not represent the EU’s position.”
Walking into controversy
In his interview, Macron touched on a tense subject within Europe: how it should balance itself against the superpower fight between the U.S. and China.
The French president encouraged Europe to chart its own course, cautioning that Europe faces a “great risk” if it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy.”
Macron said he wants Europe to become a “third pole” to counterbalance China and the U.S. in the long term | Pool photo by Jacques Witt/AFP via Getty Images
It’s a stance that has many adherents within Europe — and has even worked its way into official EU policy as officials work to slowly ensure the Continent’s supply lines aren’t fully yoked to China and others on everything from weapons to electric vehicles.
Macron said he wants Europe to become a “third pole” to counterbalance China and the U.S. in the long term. An imminent conflict between Being and Washington, he argued, would put that goal at risk.
Yet out east, officials lamented that the French leader was simply treating the U.S. and China as if they were essentially the same in a global power play.
The comments, the second diplomat said, were “both ill-timed and inappropriate to put both the United States and China on a par and suggest that the EU should keep strategic distance to both of them.”
A Central European diplomat flatly dismissed Macron’s stance as “pretty outrageous,” while another official from the same region chalked it up to an attempt “to distract from other problems and show that France is bigger than what it is” — a reference to the protests roiling France amid Macron’s pension reforms.
The frustration in Central and Eastern Europe stems in part from a feeling that the French president has never made clear who would replace Washington in Europe — especially if Russia expands its war beyond Ukraine, said Kristi Raik, head of the foreign policy program at the International Centre for Defence and Security, a think tank in Estonia, a country of about 1.3 million people that borders Russia.
It’s an emotional point for Europe’s eastern half, where memories of the Soviet era linger.
“We hear Macron talking about European strategic autonomy, and somehow just being completely silent about the issue, which has become so clear in Ukraine, that actually European security and defense depends very strongly on the U.S.,” Raik said.
Raik noted, of course, that European countries, most notably Germany, are scrambling to update their militaries. France has also pledged large increases in its defense budgets.
But these changes, she cautioned, will take a “very long time.”
If Macron “wants to be serious in showing that he really aims at a Europe that is capable of defending itself,” Raik argued, “he also should be showing that France is willing to do much more to defend Europe vis-à-vis Russia.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

April 11, 2023