Tag: survey

There’s Good News and Bad News for Trump in a New Survey

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My survey of GOP county chairs is part of an ongoing effort to track the so-called “invisible primary” for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, with a series that is being featured in POLITICO Magazine over the next year. What takes place during the invisible primary is the crucial coordination and jockeying that occurs before anyone starts voting or caucusing, but which will do much to determine the eventual winner. County chairs are figures who will play a key role in shaping the race. They are highly attentive to the party’s internal dynamics and are influential in local GOP circles; they offer the kind of endorsements that candidates are eager to collect. They’re also still close to the rank-and-file grassroots, and their shifts are likely to signal where the rest of the party is going.
When I launched my first survey in February, Trump was looking vulnerable. He was tied with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among those who had committed to a candidate, and unlike DeSantis, there appeared to be a real ceiling for how much Trump’s support could grow. But in the wake of Trump’s April indictment in Manhattan, related to his alleged hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, Trump picked up some support, largely at DeSantis’ expense. It appeared Republicans were rallying to the embattled former president once again.
The most recent survey, conducted in the first few weeks of June, came amid yet another criminal indictment — this time involving federal charges that he mishandled classified documents, including violations of the Espionage Act. Yet I found Trump’s support continued to increase. Roughly twice as many county party chairs are now committed to Trump as to DeSantis, and no other candidates have really broken through.
This past month has seen a raft of new entrants to the GOP race, including some expected contenders like former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, along with seemingly even bigger longshots like North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.
Some commentators have suggested the crowded primary campaign could mirror that of 2016, when Trump snatched the nomination because other candidates split the anti-Trump vote. But so far, support for all the candidates combined still falls short of Trump’s tally. The one hope for Trump holdouts is that many chairs remain undecided.
As director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, I sent this survey to roughly 3,000 GOP chairs, one for every county in the country; 133 Republican chairs responded, roughly the same number who responded to the April survey.
The first question I asked was simply whether the county chairs had committed to supporting a candidate, and if so, whom that might be.
The proportion of undecided chairs remains significant, but it dipped a bit to 47 percent, down from 51 percent in April. DeSantis’ share of supporters has not shifted, holding just under 14 percent. But Trump’s support continues to grow. He has 29 percent now — roughly double what DeSantis has — and up from 24 percent in April and 16 percent in February. Support for all other candidates added up to around 10 percent.

Moe Yoder, a Trump backer who chairs the Republican Party of Yamhill County, Ore., summed up the sentiment of many: “I was impressed by his first term and was very upset that he was robbed of his second term.” Meanwhile, DeSantis supporter Donna Girten of Crittenden County, Ky., echoed the rationale many of his backers have voiced throughout this year, crediting “his conservative efforts and no-holds-barred approach. He’s Trump like without the drama.”
I then asked another question to gauge potential candidate support: Which candidates are county chairs considering for the presidential nomination?
DeSantis still holds the lead in this category, with 61 percent of chairs saying they’re open to the Florida governor’s nomination. But notably, that figure has dropped with each survey wave; it had been 67 percent in April and 73 percent in February. Trump’s numbers, while not as strong, continue to improve. He’s now at 53 percent, up from 51 percent in April and 43 percent in February, suggesting more and more Republicans are getting comfortable with him back at the top of the ticket. Again, that’s even as his legal woes grow.
The one non-Trump, non-DeSantis contender who saw a real bit of movement in my survey is South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. He appears to have enjoyed a strong campaign rollout, with 46 percent of chairs now saying they’re considering supporting him, up from 26 percent in April. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s numbers are up slightly, from 29 percent in April to 31 percent in June, while Pence saw his numbers rise from 17 to 24 percent between April and June.

Finally, I asked the chairs whom they do not want to see as their presidential nominee. Christie led the pack for the third straight time, with 57 percent of chairs saying they do not want him as the GOP nominee. This is roughly the same figure as in April, suggesting his recent campaign rollout in which he offered sharp critiques of Trump hasn’t done much to alter his image among Republican grassroots leaders. The one bright spot for Christie is that a few more chairs are considering him now than were in April: 11 percent rather than just 4 percent.
As in previous surveys, the candidates with the most opposition among county chairs after Christie were former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (who has continued to criticize Trump for his legal travails), Pence and Trump himself. Pence’s negatives are down slightly, however, to 42 percent of chairs ruling him out as opposed to 47 percent in April.
Meanwhile, considerably more county chairs are now rejecting Trump’s candidacy than in the last wave, with 38 percent of chairs now opposed to him, up from 29 percent in April. Ever the polarizing force, it appears that the latest round of indictments may have increased both Trump’s supporters and detractors within the party.

We can learn a bit more about these party leaders’ sentiment by focusing on just those who answered both the April and June surveys; that’s 57 chairs overall. For the most part, we see relatively stable candidate alignments. DeSantis picked up two undecideds while Trump picked up one chair and lost two. A few chairs shifted around a bit, but there wasn’t a lot of change.
This stability, of course, advantages Trump the longer it goes on. But the race is still relatively early. The debates start in August, and Trump could face yet more indictments based on his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Eventually those undecided chairs will have to pick a side.
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#Good #News #Bad #News #Trump #Survey
( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

July 11, 2023
Dangerous, misleading, say LGBTQ activists on RSS’s survey on same-sex marriage

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New Delhi: Several LGBTQ rights activists have called the survey on same-sex marriage by an RSS body “dangerous and misleading” and accused the organisation of “spreading disinformation”.
According to the survey by Samwardhini Nyas, an affiliate of the Rashtra Sevika Samiti (a women’s organisation which parallels the RSS), many doctors and allied medical professionals believe that homosexuality is “a disorder” and it will increase further in society if same-sex marriage is legalised.
“Such a study is dangerous and misleading for a society that is unaware. It goes against basic dignity and amounts to defamation. Who are these doctors who have respondents in the survey? Their licences should be cancelled.

“Be it The Yoga Institute which was founded in 1918 or the Indian Psychiatric Society, both have maintained that homosexuality is legitimate and normal, it is natural, inborn and choiceless,” said author and advocate for equal rights, Sharif Rangnekar, who also points out how Hinduism is replete with references to homosexuality.
Activist Harish Iyer said that psychiatric bodies from across the world and India have maintained that homosexuality is not an “aberration but a variation”. It is beyond any reasonable doubt, he said.
“No religion that claims to be a protector of humanity can also support this labelling of LGBTQIA+ individuals as deviants. It is against the ethos of our nation and also against the very grain of the belief of every religion that is based on the principle of love and acceptance.
“If you believe that your God created all of humankind. Then God made me too. And standing up against LGBTQIA+ individuals is akin to working against the intent of your God. God made me this way,” he said.
Iyer also appealed to the government to raise awareness on the issue.

“In keeping with the ruling on Section 377, the government’s responsibility is to create awareness to ensure more acceptance and no misinformation. I would appeal to the government of the day to step in and stand against such blatant disinformation,” he said.
Q Manivannan, a queer scholar and PhD candidate, at the University of St Andrews, to refers to ancient mythology in debunking the results of the survey.
“The RSS forgets, when convenient, that homosexuality is rife in mythology too. Same-sex unions of many kinds, companionships and homoeroticism, much like transgender themes, feature in the Ramayana, in the Mahabharata, and the Upanishads,” he said.
Activist and CPI-M leader Subhashini Ali also attacked the survey. “It was “idiotic unscientific, inhuman,” she tweeted.
The survey has been conducted by the Samwardhini Nyas against the backdrop of a five-judge Constitution bench of the Supreme Court, headed by Chief Justice D Y Chandrachud, hearing arguments on a batch of pleas seeking legal sanction for same-sex marriage.
A senior functionary of the Rashtra Sevika Samiti had said the findings of the survey are based on 318 responses collected across the country covering medical practitioners from eight different paths of treatment from modern science to Ayurveda.
In their response to the survey, according to Samwardhini Nyas, nearly 70 per cent of the doctors and allied medical professionals stated that “homosexuality is a disorder” while 83 per cent of them “confirmed transmission of sexual disease in homosexual relations.”
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#Dangerous #misleading #LGBTQ #activists #RSSs #survey #samesex #marriage
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 7, 2023
ASI agrees to survey Jama Masjid in UP’s Badaun

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Lucknow: The Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) has given an application in Badaun court, for carrying out a survey of the Jama Masjid there.
A lawyer on behalf of the ASI appeared before the court, agreeing to carry out the survey and also seeking time for it.
Mukesh Patel, state president of Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha, had filed an application in the court of civil judge, senior division, Badaun in September 2022, claiming that the Jama Masjid was Neelkanth Mahadev temple that was destroyed and converted into a mosque.

The Mahasabha had sought a survey of the mosque by the ASI. It made three parties to the case, including ASI, the state government and the mosque committee.
According to Hindu Mahasabha’s advocate Ved Prakash Sahu, the ASI will carry out a survey of the Jama Masjid and thereafter submit its report in court.
The court had given 15 days’ time to the ASI for submitting the report, Sahu added.
The next date for the hearing of the case is May 30.

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#ASI #agrees #survey #Jama #Masjid #UPs #Badaun
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 7, 2023
Survey shows Congress still in the lead in Karnataka

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New Delhi: The final opinion poll for the Karnataka Assembly elections conducted by C-Voter for ABP News indicates that the Congress is still in the pole position though the BJP seems to have closed the earlier gap in the last leg of campaigning.
A detailed analysis of the poll data across demographics and other categories in the major regions of the state suggests that the Congress is likely to win between 110 and 122 seats in the May 10 elections. The Karnataka Assembly has 224 members and a tally of 113 is required to form a simple majority government.
The party is projected to get 40.2 per cent of the vote share, up 2.2 per cent from what it managed in the previous Assembly elections in 2018. The BJP, which currently has a government in the state, is projected to win between 73 and 85 seats. In 2018, the saffron party had won 104 seats.

Interestingly, BJP’s vote share is projected to remain the same at 36 per cent. Compared to the earlier rounds of the C-Voter poll, this is an improvement both in terms of seats and vote share.
The JD(S) is projected to win between 21 and 29 seats. In 2018, it had won 37 seats. The projected vote share for the JD(S) in 16.1 per cent, down almost 2 per cent compared to the 2018 elections.
Barring the Greater Bengaluru region, which sends 32 MLAs to the Karnataka Assembly, the Congress is projected to win more seats than the BJP in all the other regions of the state.
Interestingly, the BJP is projected to substantially increase its vote share in the Old Mysuru region, a stronghold of the JD(S), from 17 per cent in 2018 to more than 25 per cent this time.
But this seems to be resulting in a triangular fight which is helping the Congress.

Elections are scheduled in a single phase on May 10 and the results will be declared on May 13.
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#Survey #shows #Congress #lead #Karnataka
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 6, 2023
‘Homosexuality a disorder..’: RSS survey on same sex marriage

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New Delhi: Many doctors and allied medical professionals believe that homosexuality is “a disorder” and it will increase further in society if same-sex marriage is legalised, according to a survey by Samwardhini Nyas, an affiliate of the women’s wing of the RSS.
A senior functionary of the Rashtra Sevika Samiti, a women’s organisation which parallels the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), said the findings of the survey are based on 318 responses collected across the country covering medical practitioners from eight different pathies of treatment from modern science to Ayurveda.
In their response to the survey, according to Samwardhini Nyas, nearly 70 per cent of the doctors and allied medical professionals stated that “homosexuality is a disorder” while 83 per cent of them “confirmed transmission of sexual disease in homosexual relations.”

“From the survey, it is observed that the decision to legalise such marriages may promote more disorder in the society rather than curing patients and bringing them to normalcy,” the RSS body said.
“Counselling is the better option to cure patients of such a psychological disorder,” it added.
Samwardhini Nyas’s survey recommended that public opinion should be taken before taking any decision on the demand for legalising same-sex marriage.
“Over 67 per cent of the doctors in their response to the survey questionnaire felt that homosexual parents cannot raise their offspring properly,” the Rashtra Sevika Samiti affiliate added.
The survey has been conducted by the Samwardhini Nyas against the backdrop of a five-judge constitution bench, headed by Chief Justice D Y Chandrachud, hearing arguments on a batch of pleas seeking legal sanction for same-sex marriage”

“Over 57 per cent of the doctors who responded to the survey disfavoured the Supreme Court’s intervention in the matter,” a senior functionary of the Samwardhini Nyas said.
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#Homosexuality #disorder. #RSS #survey #sex #marriage
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 6, 2023
With just 7 pc increase, Congress could win 150 seats in Karnataka: Survey

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The upcoming Karnataka Assembly elections have sparked controversy, with surveys conducted by the BJP and its frontal organizations indicating that a narrow margin of votes and a combined use of 13 percent Muslim votes could help the Congress win 150 seats, adding to the BJP’s woes.
The BJP leadership is throwing all its might in the elections, fearful of these revelations in the surveys. In the 2019 assembly elections, Congress obtained 31.50 percent of the total votes, and the Janata Dal-Secular managed to secure 4.87 percent of the votes, while the BJP secured 50.32 percent of the votes. However, if the votes are seen closely, Congress could win by a huge majority.
According to the India Today survey, a mere one percent increase in the Congress’s vote share will benefit three seats, while a 2 percent increase can add 12 seats to the Congress. The Congress, which secured 80 seats in the previous elections, can obtain 92 seats. If the Congress increases its vote share by 3 percent, it is likely to win 107 seats, an increase of 4 percent votes can make the Congress win 122 seats, while a 5 percent increase can help the Congress secure 139 seats. If the Congress manages to obtain an extra 7 percent votes i.e. 39 percent votes, it can win 150 seats.

Not only Muslims but also secular urban and Lingayat voters are fighting unitedly to prevent the BJP from winning the Karnataka elections. There is no trend among women to vote in favor of the BJP. In Karnataka, Muslim voters constitute 13 percent of the electorate, while Lingayats account for 17 percent of the population. If Muslims and Lingayats vote together in favor of the Congress, then the Congress can win a historic victory in the Karnataka Assembly elections.
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#increase #Congress #win #seats #Karnataka #Survey
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 5, 2023
Bihar govt directs all DMs to implement Patna HC decision on caste-based survey

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Patna: In wake of Patna High Court’s interim stay on the caste-based survey on Thursday, the Bihar government has asked District Magistrates of all 38 districts to stop the exercise with immediate effect.
The letter, issued by the office of Deputy Secretary, General Administration Department, Rajnish Kumar, directed the District Magistrates to follow the decision of the high court and direct officials and employees to take necessary steps and not release any data to anyone.
As per the order, the division bench of Chief Justice Vinod Chandran and Justice Madhuresh Kumar said: “We are of the considered opinion that the petitioners have made out a prima facie case against the continuation process of the proposed caste-based survey as attempted by the state of Bihar. There is a question raised on data integrity and security which has to be more elaborately addressed by the state.”

“We also have the opinion that the state has no power to carry out caste-based surveys in a manner it is fashioned now. It would amount to a census thus impinging upon the legislative power of the Parliament,” the HC said.
“We also see the notification that the government intends to share data with the leaders of different political parties of the state assembly. The bigger question arises here is the right of privacy which the Supreme Court has held to be a facet of right to life.
“In such circumstances, we have directed the state government to immediately stop the caste-based survey and ensure that the data already collected are secured and not shared with anybody till final orders on this writ petition,” the bench said.
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#Bihar #govt #directs #DMs #implement #Patna #decision #castebased #survey
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 4, 2023
Committed to conduct caste-based survey in Bihar, says Tejashwi

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Patna: Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav on Thursday said that he is committed to the caste-based census in Bihar and despite the Patna High Court’s interim stay, asserted that it will be conducted in future.
“Our fight for the caste-based survey will continue in the state. The people of Bihar are in favour of caste-based survey. It is in the interest of common people.
“The decision of caste based survey was taken unanimously by all political parties of the state. It is not for any particular caste. It is for all,” he said.

“Bihar government was conducting a caste-based survey at its own expense as the Centre had declined to make a financial contribution to it. The BJP did not want the caste- based survey being conducted in the state. They are frightened that once the actual data would come out, they would know how many people are staying below the poverty line and how many of them are landless. Who is in good financial condition and who has not. It is in the interest of all caste and community people,” Tejashwi Yadav said.
“As the interim order has come, the state government will analyse it and take the decision accordingly,” he said.
“After the court order, the BJP is celebrating the decision and spreading lies that they are in favour of caste-based survey. If it was the case, then why have they not conducted in any BJP-ruled states or by the Centre,” he added.
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#Committed #conduct #castebased #survey #Bihar #Tejashwi
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

May 4, 2023
DSEK To Conduct Survey On Implementation Of National School Bag Policy 2020

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SRINAGAR: The School Education Department Friday proposed for conducting a survey on implementation of National School Bag Policy 2020 and Rule 8A of J&K School Education Act, 2002.
Director of School Education Kashmir (DSEK) in a communique to Director of Jammu and Kashmir State Council of Education Research and Trainings (JKSCERT) has requested to conduct of survey on the implementation of Rule 8A of JK School Education Act, 2002, Rules & National School Bag Policy 2020 for reduction of school bag weight and homework burden.
“As the School Bag weight and homework burden beyond the recommendations of Rule 8A of JK School Education Act, 2002 Rules and National School Bag Policy 2020 is depriving the children of their happy childhood and impede their different developmental domains to a greater extent,” reads the official communique.
The director said that in this regard, a survey needs to be conducted as desired by School Education Department, as to whether the guidelines in Rule 8A of JK School Education Act, Rules 2002 and National School Bag Policy 2020 are being followed in the schools or not.
DSEK has requested that a survey may be conducted in six schools including two government and four private institutions in each district and 12 Schools in Srinagar district that includes four government and eight Private schools.
“The survey shall be involving DIETs of the Kashmir division in collaboration with Chief Education Officers so that the findings are shared with Administrative Department,” DSEK said. (KNO)

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#DSEK #Conduct #Survey #Implementation #National #School #Bag #Policy

( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

April 30, 2023
AP: 1.45 cr households participate in ‘Jagananne Maa Bhavishyathu’ survey

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Amaravati: Marking the successful culmination of the ‘Jagananne Maa Bhavishyathu’ campaign, the YSRCP leadership declared the results of the mega people’s survey at the Central Party Office in Tadepalli.
Senior leaders including Rajya Sabha MP Alla Ayodhya Rami Reddy, MLC Marri Rajasekhar, Vijayawada West MLA Vellampally Srinivas, Vijayawada Central MLA Malladi Vishnu, and Vijayawada East ACC Devineni Avinash elaborated on the remarkable milestone achieved by the 7 lakh party cadre in mission mode and expressed gratitude to the people for their overwhelming and humbling response.
Highlighting the unprecedented results of the one-of-it’s-kind mega people’s survey, Rajya Sabha MP Alla Ayodhya Rami Reddy said, “Indian politics has never seen such a political survey before. The outcome of the survey is interesting and is going to set a trend for other political parties to follow. In such a short time,1.45 crore households participated in the drive and we received over 1.10 crore missed calls. This shows people’s confidence and belief in the leadership of CM Jagan Mohan Reddy. This also shows how much people trust him in converting their vision into reality on the ground.”

The Rajya Sabha MP also extended his gratitude to the entire party cadre. Thanking the grassroots workers of YSRCP he said that he has never seen a people’s survey of this scale.
“I want to thank all the grassroots workers of YSRCP and the people of Andhra Pradesh for reposing faith in the leadership of Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy. In my 40 years of political life, I have never seen a people’s survey of this scale. Everyone who has been associated with this drive must feel proud of what they have achieved,” said Alla Ayodhya Rami Reddy.
On April 7, YSRCP launched a unique campaign across the state, where the party’s grassroots army was tasked to knock on the doors of all 1.6 crore households and capture the people’s choice as to who they trust for their and their children’s future.
Throwing light on the exemplary party machinery, YSRCP MLC Marri Rajasekhar said, “This milestone wasn’t achieved overnight. The party trained 7 lakh grassroots workers for over six months and meticulously mapped the cadre at each level – be it households, sachivalayams, mandals, assembly constituencies and districts. This strategic and calculated plan of action is what helped us get a rousing response from the public.”
Further elaborating on the results, Vijayawada West MLA Vellampally Srinivas said that the support of a staggering 1.45 crore families is a stamp of approval that today people are satisfied with the work done by the Jagan Government.

“The results prove that the people of Andhra Pradesh trust Chief Minister Jagan for their and their children’s future,” said Srinivas.
Giving insights into the survey results, Vijayawada Central MLA Malladi Vishnu said, “Kakinada, NTR, Bapatla, Chittoor, Ananthpur, and YSR Kadapa are the top districts that saw maximum household participation in the mega people’s survey. In fact, it’s thrilling to see that the slogan, Maa Nammakam Nuvee Jagan which was coined by the people themselves is reverberating loud on the ground today. The mega survey result is an endorsement of CM Jagan’s credibility and today, given your response we are motivated to work harder.”
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#households #participate #Jagananne #Maa #Bhavishyathu #survey
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

April 30, 2023