Patna: The 2024 Lok Sabha elections may be contested between the Mahagathbandhan and the BJP in Bihar, but the importance of smaller parties cannot be ruled out.
The political leaders know this fact and hence they are going all-out to bring them in their side.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Friday invited Chirag Paswan during the Iftar party in his former official residence probably to pacify him. Chirag Paswan however refused to go there.
Deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav invited Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav (Jan Adhikar Party) in the Iftar party scheduled in Rabri Devi’s residence on Sunday. Pappu Yadav accepted the invitation and has given a positive signal for the event.
Upendra Kushwaha, who recently left JD-U and formed a new political party Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD), is making a strategy to become a strong contender at a time when he opts for an alliance. Similar situations are with Pashupati Kumar Paras (RLJP), Mukesh Sahani (Vikassheel Insaan Party) and Jitan Ram Manjhi (Hindustani Awam Morcha) as well.
In Bihar, Chirag Paswan is considered as the strongest leader of all smaller parties. His popularity was seen several times during by-polls in Mokama, Gopalganj, Kurhani and other places. He is having bigger face value than any other leaders of BJP Bihar wing.
It was seen recently during the birth anniversary celebration of Chaudhar Mal – a Dalit icon – in Mokama when a large crowd assembled there to see Chirag Paswan. When Samrat Chaudhary went on the dais to make the speech, people hooted. Samrat Chaudhary was claiming that he is also from OBC but they were not ready to listen to him. Eventually, Samrat Chaudhary left the event only in two to three minutes.
Such a situation probably emerged after the Nawada rally when Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that BJP will contest the 2024 Lok Sabha election for all 40 seats in Bihar. Chirag Paswan himself claimed that he is a Hanuman of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and always stands behind BJP. Shah’s statement may hurt the supporters of Chirag Paswan.
Following the Chaudhar Mal birth anniversary event, Chirag Paswan called for his party Lok Janshakti Party Ram Vilas (LJPR) state executive committee meeting in Patna and announced to contest on all 40 Lok Sabha seats of Bihar in 2024.
Such a decision of Chirag Paswan could tease BJP as it is a single opposition party in Bihar and it has to face the might of Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Dipankar Bhattacharya (CPIM-L) and Congress.
For BJP, making alliances with smaller parties is its political compulsion. At the same time, if Chirag Paswan would opt for the strategy of the 2020 assembly election, his political existence could be over in Bihar. During the 2020 assembly election, Chirag Paswan had given the tickets to candidates against JD-U only to cut the votes of its candidates. He had deeply hurt the JD-U at that time, reducing it from 69 in 2015 to 43 in 2020.
Pasupati Kumar Paras, the MP from Hajipur and national president of Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP), is another leader in Bihar who is currently sharing the cabinet of the Narendra Modi government. After the separation from Chirag Paswan, five MPs came into RLSP. In the case of alliance with BJP, it will be a tough challenge to accommodate Paras in NDA. Chirag Paswan already announced that he will not make an alliance with his uncle Pasupati Kumar Paras’s party.
Mukesh Sahani is another leader in Bihar who claimed himself as the son of Mallah (Fisherman community). The Narendra Modi government had given Y plus category security to him. The idea could be to make an alliance with his party VIP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Sahani is considered an influential leader in the fisherman community in Bihar and he proved it in the 2020 Bihar assembly election when VIP won four seats. Mukesh Sahani however lost his own seat at that time. Later, three of his MLAs joined the BJP and another MLA died in 2021. Sahani has not opened his cards about which way he will go. Since Mahagathbandhan has seven parties, the chances of negotiation for the alliance are thin. So, he may side with BJP.
Upendra Kushwaha is another prominent face of Kushwaha community in Bihar. Like Chirag Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha is another leader who has openly supported BJP in Bihar.
However, BJP has given a clear message to Upendra Kushwaha that the former is not dependent only on him for the Kushwaha vote bank. BJP recently appointed Samrat Chaudhary as state president of the party. He also comes from Kushwaha community.
For the BJP, the vote of the Kushwaha community is important. It is a core vote bank of Nitish Kumar’s Lav-Kush equation. BJP wants to intrude into Nitish Kumar’s vote bank and the separation of Upendra Kushwaha followed by the appointment of Samrat Chaudhary could be a plan of its strategy.
When it comes to Chirag Paswan and Pashupati Kumar Paras, BJP has to make an understanding between these two. In case anyone would go away from NDA, it will deeply hurt the Dalit vote bank which the BJP is aiming at through these two.
The trust issue could arise between BJP and Upendra Kushwaha as well after the appointment of Samrat Chaudhary. The motive of Upendra Kushwaha has been hit after the BJP appointed Samrat Chaudhary as Bihar unit chief.
Similarly, Mukesh Sahani needs to be cautious this time while dealing with BJP. He knew how BJP got his three MLAs.
The Lok Sabha election 2024 is crucial for BJP in Bihar. The state has 40 seats which will decide the fate of Narendra Modi. It is a non-BJP-ruled state and hence the saffron leaders are dependent only on the mood of voters. In that case, negotiating with smaller parties is the only way to get success and smaller parties, they would not afford to come in the position of ‘Vote Katwa’ to help BJP.
