Tag: SaudiIran

Will Saudi-Iran accord trigger a domino effect and stabilize Middle East?

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Nicosia: Last Thursday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, held in Beijing their first meeting in seven years and formalized the agreement to restore diplomatic relations and bury the hatchet between their countries.
They discussed the appointment of ambassadors, a visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Riyadh, the issuing of visas to each other’s citizens and the resumption of flights between the two countries.
The Chinese-brokered landmark accord between two countries that were bitter rivals for years may have a domino effect on other Middle East countries like Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, where the two countries supported opposing sides, and could play a big role in stabilizing the region.

Furthermore, it is indicative of China’s new role as a diplomatic and strategic player in the Middle East and causes uneasiness to Washington, which sees Beijing’s economic and soft power increasing and its own influence diminishing in this strategic region of the world.
It looks like the bloody war in Yemen, where the Iranians backed the rebel Houthis and Saudi Arabia the internationally recognized government, will come to an end. The war in Yemen has claimed the lives of more than 233,000 people, while about five million people are at risk of famine and a cholera outbreak has affected over one million people.
Last year, a ceasefire was brokered by the United Nations, which was largely observed by the two sides. Now, following the accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran, under which the two countries agreed to stop their involvement in the war, the ceasefire is expected to become permanent.
Moreover, the Saudi government expects that it will no longer have to worry about Houthi missile and drone attacks against its oil installations and will not have to spend additional billions of dollars on sophisticated air defence systems.
The agreement represents a major success for internationally isolated Iran as it has managed to mend relations with Saudi Arabia, one of its two main enemies in the Middle East (the other enemy is Israel) and what is more this was achieved without Tehran’s prior deal on its nuclear program, which was generally believed to be a prerequisite for any improvement of relations with Riyadh.

Hussein Ibish, of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, points out that the accord “for Iran represents a successful effort of trying to push back against regional isolation without major changes to its policies, which adversaries like Saudi Arabia had previously been demanding.”
As regards Syria, for many years Saudi Arabia had been actively supporting insurgents trying to topple the Bashar al-Assad regime, while Iran sent thousands of troops to prevent its collapse. Currently, pro-Iranian militias continue to control several Syrian provinces.
However, due to the military support given by Russia to Damascus, it became apparent to Riyadh that the Assad regime will stay in power. So, the Saudis changed their policy on Syria. They discontinued assistance to the insurgents and now they are talking about Syria’s return to the Arab League.
For many years now, the pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah has been a formidable force in Lebanon that exercises a big influence in the military and political affairs of the country. It has gradually become a hybrid terrorist organisation that occasionally fights Israel, while it provides social welfare to thousands of citizens who suffer due to the unprecedented economic crisis facing the country.
Lebanese politics have been broadly split for years between Hezbollah and a pro-Saudi coalition.
More many months now, Lebanon is facing an economic meltdown, without a president or a fully empowered cabinet, while the opposing sides fail to reach an agreement almost on all burning issues facing the country.
The restoration of relations between Riyadh and Tehran has sparked some hope that this could lead to an end to government paralysis. Nabih Berri, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, recently described the accord achieved in Beijing as “historic” and said the “positive reading of the news should also prompt Lebanon’s politicians to quickly elect a president.”
With regard to Iraq, following the US-led invasion of 2003 and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, various militias with ties with Tehran joined the reconstituted Iraqi Army. After the advance of the Islamic state into northern Iraq in 2014, Iran provided technical advisers to the Iraqi government, troops to fight ISIL and weapons to the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, sparking Saudi alarm.
In 2020 there was a limited thaw in relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and the two countries reopened a crossing between them. Now with the Chinese brokered accord, relations between Tehran, Riyadh, and Baghdad are expected to improve even more.
Clearly, Israel is the country that is most unhappy with the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as it sees its hopes of establishing diplomatic relations with Riyadh and even forming a coalition against Iran vanish into thin air.
The threat of a possible Iranian attack against Saudi Arabia has now receded and there is no more a powerful incentive for Riyadh to think about improving relations with the Jewish state.
Another country that is not thrilled about the Chinese-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, is the United States, which sees its general plans for the Middle East as failing. A State Department spokesman, commenting on the Riyadh- Tehran accord, said: “If this dialogue leads to concrete action by Iran to curb its destabilizing activities in the region, including the proliferation of dangerous weapons, then of course, we would welcome that.”
Furthermore, the US is not happy about China’s growing influence in the Middle East, while Washington’s influence diminishes. It realizes that it is now unlikely to achieve a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, while Iran forges ahead with enriching uranium to nuclear weapons grade, and instead of facing increased international isolation, it is improving its relations with a formerly implacable rival.
(Except for the headline, the story has not been edited by Siasat staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

April 10, 2023
‘Win-win’: Washington is just fine with the China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal

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“Not everything between the U.S. and China has to be a zero-sum game,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East panel. Plus, he said, better relations between Riyadh and Tehran means that there will be less conflict in the region, which would lower the chance of the United States getting dragged into a fighting in the Middle East. “I don’t know why we would perceive there to be a downside to de-escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.”
Others provided reasons stretching from the grand strategic to the tactical.
At the highest level, a more-involved China means the United States can focus on its national security priorities, namely defending Ukraine against Russia and deterring China from invading Taiwan. Friendlier ties between Riyadh and Tehran also mean that the Saudi-led coalition’s eight-year war on Yemen could soon come to an end, a key goal for the Biden administration. And there’s the fact that the U.S. has no diplomatic relations with Iran, meaning Washington couldn’t have brokered the rapprochement.
“The United States should see China’s mediation of a Saudi-Iran agreement as a win-win for American interests,” said Martin Indyk, who served as the special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations from 2013 to 2014. And if the deal falls apart, “the blame for the failure will be on China’s back and its foray into Gulf diplomacy will be seen to be much ado about nothing.”
This is generally the argument Biden administration officials make in public and private, despite President Joe Biden’s push for competition with China in the military, economic and technological arenas.
A Democratic Senate aide, who like others was granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions and diplomacy, said lawmakers express mixed feelings when briefed by senior figures on the deal.
“It’s good in that it reduces the threat of nuclear escalation and conflict in the region,” the staffer has heard lawmakers say, but others argue “it gives China too much influence and positions them in the Middle East, where they have never really been engaged, as a political power.” The good-or-bad arguments don’t fall neatly on party lines, the aide noted.
But there’s no real evidence that China’s role in the Saudi-Iran deal means the United States has somehow removed itself from the Middle East. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, called Saudi Arabia’s chief of defense Thursday to discuss security cooperation and the military partnership. Col. Joe Buccino, a CENTCOM spokesperson, said the conversation wasn’t tied to diplomacy in China. “Frankly we didn’t even think of that,” he said.

It shows that Beijing is involved in one aspect of the Middle East’s politics, but hasn’t usurped America’s place in all facets. Among other things, the U.S. is working with Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, partnering in cyberspace and maritime security operations, investing in Riyadh’s infrastructure goals and developing advanced telecommunications networks. And Washington remains the kingdom’s most important security partner, sending billions in weapons to help defend against regional threats — mainly from Iran — and stationing 3,000 troops in the kingdom.
“It’s not like Iran’s Shia militias have quieted down on threats or propaganda,” said Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies.
China’s maneuvering, of course, has raised eyebrows in Washington and around the world. It shows Beijing’s willingness to make nice with distant partners, like Iran, and a possible desire to play the long game so that the region eventually tips in China’s favor.
“The U.S. is perceived as leaving the Middle East, and China fills the void,” gaining more influence in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, a Middle East official said. “China becomes the winner here.”
After saying “the Saudi-Iran thing isn’t that big a deal,” a GOP congressional aide added that the “Chinese capitalized on U.S disengagement…We will see others play upon our absence even more in the months ahead.”
There’s also the fear that Riyadh, upset that Biden once vowed to make the kingdom a “pariah,” might leverage China’s clout to extract more support from the United States. It’s why Biden traveled to Jeddah last year to mend relations with Saudi Arabia and box China out of the region.
But in the immediate term, Washington is chalking up China’s work on the Saudi-Iran deal as a win for the United States, not a loss.
“Anything that reduces the chances of conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a good thing, regardless of who brokered it,” said Matthew Duss, Sen. Bernie Sanders’ former foreign policy adviser now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Joe Gould contributed to this report.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

April 7, 2023
Why Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Is Chinese Victory?

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by Asad Mirza
The manner in which China has brokered a peace deal between arch-foes, Saudi Arabia and Iran, it may help China to emerge as a global peacemaker, eclipsing the USA.
President Xi Jinping with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (Mbs) in Riyadh on December 9, 2022
Last week a major diplomatic coup was staged by China, when it announced the results of its successfully mediated efforts, of bringing two old foes to the negotiating table and signing a friendship deal.
The Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement comes as a major diplomatic breakthrough between two regional neighbours after years of mutual animosity, suspected attacks and tales of rivalry between the two countries.
The move also represents Beijing’s first foray into Middle Eastern politics, an area that has always been regarded as a prerogative of the US, since when most of these nations become a free and independent entities, after the end of the colonial era.
On March 10, both Riyadh and Tehran announced that after seven years of severed ties, they would reopen embassies and missions within two months and implement security and economic cooperation agreements signed more than 20 years ago.
Much of the world was stunned when the two arch-rivals announced they were restoring diplomatic relations, this was not only because of the breakthrough after years of mutual animosity but because of the mediator, who played a key role in bringing the foes to the negotiating table, i.e. the Chinese government.
By this move, China has ostensibly taken up a role that the US could not have fulfilled, or it never tried to perform that role. In addition, this also comes as Beijing’s first major diplomatic foray into the Middle East mediation, an area where often rivalries are built around nuances and subtleties, which are hard to fathom for an outsider, though in recent times they have up the shape of hardnosed economic and strategic interests.

Apparently, the Saudis had been engaged in talks with Iran from around the same time as the Al Ula Summit held in Saudi in 2021, which ended the blockade of Qatar and mended the internal rifts of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In the subsequent two years, the United Arab Emirates restored its diplomatic relations with Iran and even replaced China as Iran’s top import partner; Kuwait, too, has returned its ambassador to Tehran.
The negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia since 2021 largely took place in Iraq and Oman. Other regional countries, including Kuwait and Pakistan, had attempted to arrange for talks between Tehran and Riyadh on numerous occasions in the past seven years, which were largely unsuccessful.
As tensions simmer between the world’s two largest economies: the US and China, US policymakers had sounded an alarm over competition and security concerns with China, but what does Beijing’s ascendance in the region mean for the Middle East – and for the larger US interests?
In recent times, China has been pushing for reconfiguring the regional security architecture in the Persian Gulf since 2020. In a UN Security Council meeting arranged by Russia in October 2020, China presented its proposal for security and stability in the Gulf region, arguing that with a multilateral effort, the region can become “an Oasis of Security.”
Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to resume diplomatic relations after four days of intensive previously undisclosed talks in Beijing.
Apparently, the edifice of this Chinese plan to transform into a global peacemaker seems to be the Global Security Initiative – GSI, which was unveiled by Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2023. It is portrayed as a banner for China to reform the current international security order, especially at a time when the US is prioritising alignment with countries that share the same political system and ideology, through its Democracy Summit.
Mainly, with growing power and influence China has a fair say in international peace and security architecture building. The GSI Concept Paper released by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in February 2023 identified “bringing about security changes through political dialogue and peaceful negotiation” as core concepts and principles.
China’s successful brokering of the peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran has given it confidence that this track could work. The aspiration is that China can fill the gap in regions the US has failed to lead or ignore.
According to the Chinese understanding of the region, Iran and Saudi Arabia are “pivot countries” whose political, economic, and military power make them indispensable partners for Beijing, making balance between the two the most consequential strategy.
For both countries, China is the largest trading partner. Beijing has granted Tehran and Riyadh the status of comprehensive strategic partners – the highest in China’s partnership diplomacy in the Middle East.
Asad Mirza
But China’s balancing act is more articulated than just signing similar partnership agreements with both partners. While economic relations are unequivocally unbalanced in Saudi Arabia’s favour, China guarantees Iran political support and a financial lifeline in the face of US pressure. Yet, offering different goods to equal partners often shakes the balancing act. In December, the joint China-GCC communiqué that followed Chinese President Xi Jingpin’s trip to Saudi Arabia generated anger in Iran, exposing the limits of China’s diplomacy from the sidelines.
The GSI Concept Paper also emphasises the need to support political settlements of hotspot issues such as the war in Ukraine. Therefore, President Xi’s efforts to promote a political settlement to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be essential to watch. If another success is achieved after his Russia visit, it may lend more credence to the GSI.
(Asad Mirza is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. In his career spanning more than 20 years, he was also associated with BBC Urdu Service and Khaleej Times of Dubai. Views are personal.)

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( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

March 26, 2023
Saudi-Iran rapprochement: A victory for China

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The manner in which China has brokered a peace deal between two arch foes: Saudi Arabia and Iran may help Beijing to emerge as a global peacemaker, eclipsing the US.
Last week a major diplomatic coup was staged by China, when it announced the results of its successfully mediated efforts, of bringing two old foes at the negotiating table and signing a friendship deal.
The Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement comes as a major diplomatic breakthrough between two regional neighbours after years of mutual animosity, suspected attacks, and tales of rivalry between the two countries.
The move also represents Beijing’s first foray into Middle Eastern politics, an area that has always been regarded as a prerogative of the US, since when most of these nations become a free and independent entity, after the end of the colonial era.
On March 10, both Riyadh and Tehran announced that after seven years of severed ties they would reopen embassies and missions within two months and implement security and economic cooperation agreements signed more than 20 years ago.
Much of the world was stunned when the two arch-rivals announced they were restoring diplomatic relations, this was not only because of the breakthrough after years of mutual animosity, but because of the mediator, who played a key role in bringing the foes to the negotiating table, i.e. the Chinese government.
By this move China has ostensibly taken up a role that the US could not have fulfilled, or it never tried to perform that role. In addition this also comes as Beijing’s first major diplomatic foray into the Middle East mediation, an area where often rivalries are built around nuances and subtleties, which are hard to fathom for an outsider, though in the recent times they have up the shape of hard-nosed economic and strategic interests.
Apparently, the Saudis had been engaged in talks with Iran from around the same time as Al Ula Summit held in Saudi in 2021, which ended the blockade of Qatar and mended the internal rifts of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

In the two years since, the United Arab Emirates has restored its diplomatic relations with Iran and even replaced China as Iran’s top import partner; Kuwait, too, has returned its ambassador to Tehran.
The negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia since 2021 largely took place in Iraq and Oman. Other regional countries, including Kuwait and Pakistan, had attempted to arrange for talks between Tehran and Riyadh on numerous occasions in the past seven years, which were largely unsuccessful.
As tensions simmer between the world’s two largest economies: the US and China, American policymakers had sounded an the alarm over competition and security concerns with China, but what does Beijing’s ascendance in the region mean for the Middle East — and for the larger US interests?
In recent times, China has been pushing for reconfiguring the regional security architecture in the Persian Gulf since 2020. In a UN Security Council meeting arranged by Russia in October of that year, China presented its proposal for security and stability in the Gulf region, arguing that with a multilateral effort, the region can become “an Oasis of Security”.
Apparently the edifice of this Chinese plan to transform into a global peacemaker seems to be the Global Security Initiative (GSI), which was unveiled by Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2023.
It is portrayed as a banner for China to reform the current international security order, especially at a time when the US is prioritising alignment with countries that share the same political system and ideology, through its Democracy Summit.
Mainly, with growing power and influence China’s to have a fair say in international peace and security architecture building. The GSI Concept Paper released by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in February 2023 identified “bringing about security changes through political dialogue and peaceful negotiation” as core concepts and principles.
China’s successful brokering of the peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran has given it the confidence that this track could work. The aspiration is that China can fill the gap in regions the US has failed to lead or ignore.
According to the Chinese understanding of the region, Iran and Saudi Arabia are “pivot countries” whose political, economic, and military power make them indispensable partners for Beijing, making balance between the two the most consequential strategy.
For both countries, China is the largest trading partner. Beijing has granted Tehran and Riyadh the status of comprehensive strategic partners — the highest in China’s partnership diplomacy in the Middle East.
But China’s balancing act is more articulated than just signing similar partnership agreements with both partners. While economic relations are unequivocally unbalanced in Saudi Arabia’s favour, China guarantees Iran political support and a financial lifeline in the face of US pressure. Yet, offering different goods to equal partners often shakes the balancing act.
In December 2022, the joint China-GCC communique that followed Xi’s trip to Saudi Arabia generated anger in Iran, exposing the limits of China’s diplomacy from the sidelines.
The GSI Concept Paper also emphasises the need to support political settlements of hotspot issues such as the war in Ukraine.
Therefore, President Xi’s efforts to promote a political settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war would be essential to watch.
If another success is achieved after his Russia visit, it may lend more credence to the GSI.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

March 25, 2023
Tunisia welcomes Saudi-Iran decision to resume ties

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Tunis: Tunisia welcomed the decision by Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic ties, the Tunisian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.
Tunisia wished to see the step contribute to strengthening regional security and stability, uprooting tension, and establishing a new phase of cooperation between regional countries, the Ministry added on Saturday in a statement.
The Ministry also praised the role played by China in facilitating the Saudi-Iran agreement, Xinhua news agency reported.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies and missions within two months after China-mediated talks in Beijing. They have also agreed to hold talks between foreign ministers to arrange ambassadors’ exchange and explore ways to strengthen bilateral relations.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

March 12, 2023
World leaders welcome Saudi-Iran deal to resume diplomatic ties

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Riyadh: World leaders have welcomed the announcement that Saudi Arabia and Iran have reached an agreement to resume diplomatic relations which were severed in 2016.
The decision to re-establish relations came following talks that took place from March 6-10 in Beijing, reports Al Arabiya.
The announcement, which was made on Friday in a joint statement with China, has been welcomed across the globe as a victory for peace and dialogue.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the agreement.
The French Foreign Ministry also said in a statement that the Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna supports dialogue and any initiative that can make a tangible contribution to calming tensions and strengthening regional security and stability.
Jordan on Friday welcomed the trilateral statement issued by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China on resuming diplomatic relations, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates in Amman expressing hope that this agreement would contribute to enhancing security and stability in the region, in a way that preserves the sovereignty of states while avoiding interference in their internal affairs, and serves common interests, Al Arabiya reported.
Pakistan said that it firmly believes that this important diplomatic breakthrough will contribute to peace and stability in the region and beyond.
The Kuwaiti Ministry of Foreign Affairs also affirmed the country support for this agreement, hoping that it would contribute to strengthening the pillars of security and stability in the region.

The Kingdom of Bahrain also welcomed the agreement. The Ministry also expressed hope that this agreement would constitute a positive step on the road to resolving differences and ending all regional conflicts through dialogue and diplomatic means.
It praised the leading role of Saudi Arabia in supporting security, peace, and stability, as well as in pursuing diplomacy in settling regional and international disputes.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey also welcomed the agreement.
In a statement, it congratulated the two countries on the agreement, which it said contributes significantly to laying the foundations for security in the region, Al Arabiya reported.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

March 11, 2023