Tag: Russia

‘We are all Ukrainian.’ How the yellow-and-blue flag won over Europe

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The yellow-and-blue flag of Ukraine has become a powerful symbol for millions of people across the Western world who want to express their solidarity with the victims of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression.
Adopted officially in 1992, the year after Ukraine gained its independence from the Soviet Union, the banner represents the country’s pride in its status as Europe’s bread basket — just picture endless wheat fields under blue skies.
In the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the colors were displayed on some of Europe’s most famous landmarks, from the Eiffel Tower to the Brandenburg Gate.
Over the course of the year since, the flag has spread to all corners of the Continent and beyond, in the hands of protesters, on official government buildings in London and Washington, and in the windows of private homes and cars.
Brandenburg Gate in Berlin | John Mcdougall/AFP via Getty Images
European Commission headquarters | Nicolas Maeterlinck/AFP via Getty Images
Munich’s television tower | Christof Stache/AFP via Getty Images
The Eiffel Tower | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images
The flag not only came to signify Ukraine’s brave resistance in a war that ended decades of peace in Europe — it quickly became the hallmark of European unity in the face of the biggest state-backed threat to the Continent’s security this century.
On a visit to Kyiv in January, Charles Michel, the European Council’s president, captured the point.
“With the Maidan uprising, 22 years after gaining your independence, you, Ukrainians said: We are European,” Michel said. “So today, I have come to Ukraine to tell you: We are all Ukrainian.”
Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images
Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris and Volodymyr Zelenskyy | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images
Bulent Kilic/AFP via Getty Images
Beyond political symbols, Putin’s invasion triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

Within weeks, European governments rushed to welcome in millions of Ukrainians, skipping administrative procedures at a speed that caused some to raise eyebrows.
Benedicte Simonart was one of the founders of a Brussels-based NGO BEforUkraine, whose logo features the Belgian and Ukrainian flags side by side. She was “struck” by the solidarity of those early days. “It was unbelievable: People kept coming to us, they were so eager to help,” she said.
“We felt very close to the Ukrainians,” she added. “Ukraine is the door to Europe, it’s almost as if it was our home.”
As the war has dragged on, European resolve has remained stable at a political level and in surveys of public opinion. The question is how long this will last if the conflict continues.
“One year ago, Europe came together very strongly and very supportively,” said Erik Jones, director of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute.
“I’m very interested to see what this is going to do over the longer term in the way Europeans think about themselves,” Jones added. “As we approach this one-year anniversary, I think it’s really important to ask: Do we have the same power as a community to support Ukraine through what may be a very long conflict?”
For now at least, Europe and Ukraine seem closer than ever. Ukrainians, through the voice of their President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, make no secret of their desire to join the EU — the sooner, the better.
And the powerful symbolism of the flag continues to color European towns and cities, a gesture that’s welcomed by Ukrainians who are now living in Europe.
“The flag is very important: it’s the symbol of Ukraine, and we need to keep displaying it, to talk about it, to remind people,” said Artem Datsii. “Because the war goes on.”
Datsii, 21, is a student at the University of Geneva (Switzerland), where he moved before the war. He has not seen his parents, who live in Kyiv, for a year, but they speak regularly over the phone.
“At home, everyone is afraid that something will happen on the 24th,” Datsii said, referring to the invasion’s one-year marker. “The Russians love anniversaries.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 21, 2023
Russia developing North-South Corridor for business with India, Iran, and Pakistan: Putin

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Moscow: President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said Russia is developing the ambitious North-South Transport Corridor, which will open up new routes for business cooperation with India, Iran and Pakistan, as well as West Asian countries.
In his one hour and 45 minutes State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly, Putin also said that Russia will expand promising international economic connections, as well as build new supply corridors, as the US-led West has imposed crippling sanctions for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine nearly one year ago.
“We will develop the ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, we will particularly focus on the North-South International Corridor,” Putin said, noting that it will open up new routes for business cooperation with India, Iran, Pakistan as well as West Asian countries.
“We will continue developing this corridor,” Putin was quoted as saying by the state-run Tass news agency.
“What areas should the state, regions, and local businesses focus their partnership work on? First, we will expand promising international economic connections and build new supply corridors,” he said in the speech days before the Ukraine war’s first anniversary on Friday.
He said a decision has already been taken to extend the Moscow-Kazan highway to Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk and Tyumen, and in the future — to Irkutsk and Vladivostok, and potentially — to Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China, which will particularly expand Russia’s economic ties with the markets of Southeast Asia.
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200-km-long multi-mode transport project for moving freight among India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe.
The INSTC is India’s vision and initiative to reduce the time taken for EXIM shipments to reach Russia and Europe, and enter the Central Asian markets.

During a visit to Yerevan in Armenia in October 2021, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar proposed that the strategic Chabahar Port in Iran be included in the North-South Transport Corridor that has the potential to bridge connectivity barriers.
The Chabahar port in the Sistan-Balochistan province in the energy-rich nation’s southern coast is easily accessible from India’s western coast and is increasingly seen as a counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port located at a distance of around 80 km from Chabahar.
The first phase of the Chabahar port was inaugurated in December 2017 by then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, opening a new strategic route connecting Iran, India and Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan.
The Chabahar port is being considered a gateway to golden opportunities for trade by India, Iran and Afghanistan with Central Asian countries, besides ramping up trade among the three countries in the wake of Pakistan denying transit access to New Delhi.
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#Russia #developing #NorthSouth #Corridor #business #India #Iran #Pakistan #Putin
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 21, 2023
DeSantis downplays Russia threat after Biden visit

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Russia tried to freeze Europe by curtailing gas supplies this winter, though the continent has so far managed to get through the season with a combination of planning and luck, POLITICO previously reported.
The war also prompted Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO, the Western military alliance. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged the expansion to be accepted, speaking in Turkey — one of the holdout states for ratification. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said last month she believed that Ukraine would not have been invaded if her country had been a member of NATO.
DeSantis, who is considered a likely candidate for the Republican presidential nomination next year, criticized Biden and his administration for visiting Ukraine instead of focusing on other priorities.
“He’s very concerned about those borders halfway around the world. He’s not done anything to secure our own border here at home,” DeSantis said, referring to the southern border.
Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.), while giving “kudos” to Biden for visiting Ukraine, suggested the president should have instead visited the site of this month’s toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.
“There are a lot of people here in the U.S. that would say he probably should have gone to Ohio and visited with the people who have been afflicted by the derailment first,” Kustoff said on Fox Business, also criticizing the amount of spending on aid to Ukraine.
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, led by President Vladimir Putin, has prompted fears within the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — about further invasion if Ukraine falls. Russia has already threatened Moldova, a neighboring country to Ukraine.
Moldova’s pro-European Union government resigned this month following pressure from Russia, though its Parliament soon approved another pro-Western prime minister. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said earlier this month that Russia wanted to stage a coup in her country; Zelenskyy said days earlier that Russia planned to “destroy” Moldova.

Biden visited Kyiv on Monday morning to show solidarity, a surprise appearance marking the anniversary since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, 2022. In an address with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Biden also announced a new half-billion-dollar weapons package to Ukraine.
The administration has “no clear strategic objective identified” as it provides aid, DeSantis said.
“And I don’t think it’s in our interest to be getting into proxy war with China, getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea,” he said. While Russia is “hostile,” he said, China poses a bigger threat.
The Biden administration has repeatedly disputed the idea that it is providing blank checks to Ukraine.
“There’s been no blank checks,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said this week on Fox’s “Fox News Sunday.” “Every single item that we have sent in to Ukraine has been done in full consultation with the Congress.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 20, 2023
Biden brings hope — as well as pledges of cash and weapons — to Ukraine

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KYIV — Just days before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the streets of the capital were suddenly locked down on Monday morning. Then videos of a mysterious procession of vehicles with blacked-out windows began being posted online.
Who, wondered many ordinary Ukrainians — trying to go about their daily business as best as they can despite the war — was the foreign guest causing so much inconvenience?
There had been rumors that Joe Biden was going to make a surprise visit to Kyiv before his scheduled trip to Poland. But the people of Ukraine didn’t know for sure until Biden was pictured walking out of Mykhailivsky monastery in central Kyiv together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The image of the U.S. president calmly walking in Kyiv, while air raid sirens blared in the background, gave hope to Ukrainians, who saw a powerful ally standing beside them.
“Thank you, Mister President, for visiting Kyiv today. Strong gesture in support of our fight. Again, we are invincible when united! Russia is already losing. Invaders will die. Be brave like Ukrainians and like Biden,” prominent Ukrainian military volunteer Serhiy Prytula said in a statement.
Russians were obviously less impressed. Dmitry Medvedev, a former president, reacted with a rant about Biden “being allowed to safely travel to Kyiv by Russians” and Russian military bloggers started asking when Vladimir Putin is going to the occupied Donetsk region to show the same kind of support for his troops.
Vladyslav Faraponov, an Internews Ukraine media analyst, told POLITICO that “Russians are going crazy on social media because they realize their weakness during this visit. There is nothing they can do about it. What is more, as the first anniversary of the war approaches, it makes them think of their foolishness as Russia’s officials have convinced them that Kyiv could be captured in three days.”
Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told the AP that the Russians were only formally informed several hours before the visit to avoid “any miscalculation that could bring the two nuclear-armed nations into direct conflict.”

“It is difficult to imagine a bigger diplomatic slap [in the face] to Putin than the arrival of President Biden in Kyiv,” former CEO of Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz Andriy Kobolev wrote on Facebook.
Biden came bearing more than support: In a joint address with Zelenskyy, he announced half a billion dollars of additional assistance to Ukraine, which will include military equipment such as artillery munitions, javelins and howitzers.
“Together with more than 50 partner countries, we have approved more than 700 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles,” the U.S. president said. Biden also said he thought it was critical not to leave any doubt about U.S. support for Ukraine in the war: “The Ukrainian people have stepped up in a way that few people ever have in the past.”
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar described Biden’s visit as a historic day for Ukraine. “It is a sunny and warm day in Kyiv. We survived this winter, which is almost over. Now it is time to win the war,” she wrote in a statement, posting a photo of the Ukrainian first couple happily greeting Biden in Kyiv.
Ukraine’s Deputy of Defence Minister Hanna Maliar | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front lines also saw Biden’s visit as a morale boost ahead of the expected counteroffensive later this week.
“He came to the capital, half a thousand kilometers from the front line. And the guys at the very front, despite the wild fatigue and cold, have a completely different mood. More energy and strength. There is even greater confidence that we are doing everything right,” Ukrainian serviceman and environmental activist Yehor Firsov wrote in a Facebook post.
Faraponov, the Internews Ukraine media analyst, said: “In my view, the visit of President Biden is crucial for Ukrainians because it hasn’t been announced in advance, and it brings some hope during this difficult time.”
He added: “The visit is happening at the moment of the Russian counteroffensive in the east. In addition, last week Russia continued to launch missiles all over Ukraine. Therefore, Ukrainians have enormous expectations for the U.S. regarding extending its support toward Ukraine. It applies to fighter jets, more tanks, long-range missiles, and other means to defeat Russia. But what I’ve seen today is a confirmation that Biden has a special sentiment toward Ukraine.”
The shock visit was a logistical nightmare to arrange. Biden left Washington at 4:15 a.m. local time and U.S. officials had expressed concerns that the president couldn’t fly into Ukraine or take a 10-hour train ride without immense risk to the host nation and Biden himself. Ensuring the president’s safety was a near-impossible endeavor, those officials said, though they acknowledged Biden had long wanted to go to Kyiv.
A Ukrainian government official, speaking on the condition on anonymity due to the confidential information involved, said the Ukrainians “have been requesting this visit for a long time.”
The same official added that the visit had been prepared “in a very short amount of time” — around a week — “with the utmost level of secrecy through (President’s Office Head Andriy) Yermak’s and (Foreign Minister Dmytro) Kuleba’s lines of communication.”
Biden’s bold move brought praise from beyond Ukrainian borders. Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said the visit to Kyiv was “immense.”
“In a way, it will frame all these events around the sad anniversary of the year of the full-scale war. And it will give, I think, a lot of mental power to the Ukrainian people. It will give a strong signal to Russia. But very important also, I think, all over the planet, and also countries of global south will get that signal.”
Poland’s Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sadoś said Monday’s visit “strengthens the allies’ determination to support Ukraine and introduce further sanctions against Russia. It is a timely, symbolic and historic visit which shows that the free world stands with Ukraine.”
Lili Bayer contributed reporting.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 20, 2023
Putin suspends participation in key nuclear arms treaty

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that he is suspending Moscow’s participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the United States.
Russia will halt its participation in the New START Treaty, Putin announced in a lengthy speech to his country’s parliament.
“I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty,” he said.
The U.S. recently raised concerns that Russia is not complying with provisions of the treaty, designed to place limits on strategic offensive arms.
The agreement — formally called the treaty between the U.S. and Russia on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms — originally entered into force in 2011, and includes limitations on systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs. The deal also includes processes for verification.
Earlier this month, NATO called on the Kremlin to stick to its commitments.
“NATO Allies agree the New START Treaty contributes to international stability by constraining Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear forces,” allies said in a statement.
“Russia’s refusal to convene a session of the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC) within the treaty-established timeframe, and to facilitate U.S. inspection activities on its territory since August 2022 prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the Treaty,” the allies said.

“We call on Russia,” the allies added, “to fulfil its obligations.”
On Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he regrets Russia’s decision.
“Over the last years, Russia has violated and walked away from key arms control agreements,” he said at a press conference.
“With today’s decision on New START, the whole arms control architecture has been dismantled,” the NATO chief added. “I strongly encourage Russia to reconsider its decision and to respect existing agreements.”
The U.S.’ top diplomat also condemned Putin’s move.
“Russia’s announcement that it is suspending its participation in New Start is very disappointing and irresponsible,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters at the U.S. Embassy in Athens. “But of course we remain ready to discuss the limitation of strategic arms at any time with Russia regardless of anything that happens in the world or in our relations.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 20, 2023
Liz Truss: UK should have ‘done more earlier’ to counter Vladimir Putin

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LONDON — Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss argued the U.K. should have “done more earlier” to counter Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric before he invaded Ukraine, and said the West depended on Russian oil for too long.
Truss — the U.K.’s shortest-serving prime minister who resigned amid market turmoil last year — was speaking in a House of Commons debate about Ukraine, her first contribution in the chamber as a backbencher since 2012. She has been increasingly vocal on foreign policy since leaving office.
The former prime minister, who as served foreign secretary for Boris Johnson before succeeding him in the top job, recalled receiving a phone call at 3.30 a.m. on the morning of the invasion, and told MPs: “This was devastating news. But as well as being devastating, it was not unexpected.”
Truss praised the “sheer bravery” of Ukrainians defending their country, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Cabinet for not fleeing the country in the aftermath. “I remember being on a video conference that evening with the defense secretary and our counterparts, who weren’t in Poland, who weren’t in the United States,” she said of Ukraine’s top team. “They were in Kyiv and they were defending their country,” she added.
But while Truss argued Western sanctions had imposed an economic toll on Putin’s Russia, said urged reflection. “The reason that Putin took the action he took is because he didn’t believe we would follow through,” she argued, and said the West should “hold ourselves to high standards.”
Ukraine, she said, should have been allowed to join NATO.
“We were complacent about freedom and democracy after the Cold War,” she said. “We were told it was the end of history and that freedom and democracy were guaranteed and that we could carry on living our lives not worrying about what else could happen.”
Truss urged the U.K. to do all it could to help Ukraine win the war as soon as possible, including sending fighter jets, an ongoing matter of debate in Western capitals despite Ukrainian pleas.

And the former U.K. prime minister said the West should “never again” be “complacent in the face of Russian money, Russian oil and gas,” tying any future lifting of sanctions “to reform in Russia.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 20, 2023
Blinken warns China of ‘serious consequences’ on bilateral ties for aiding Russia

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Washington: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned China that providing “lethal support” for Russia’s war against Ukraine will have “serious consequences” on bilateral ties between the two countries and condemned Beijing’s balloon incursion, saying it “must never happen again.”
Blinken and Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s senior-most foreign policy official, held hourlong talks in Munich on Saturday, where they were attending an international security conference, according to the US State Department.
The two high-profile diplomats met in their first high-level contact since the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon a fortnight ago.
“I made very clear to him that China sending a surveillance balloon over the US, in violation of our sovereignty, in violation of international law, was unacceptable, and must never happen again,” Blinken told CBS News in an interview.
His spokesman, Ned Price, said Blinken also told the Chinese diplomat that his nation’s “high-altitude surveillance balloon programme — which has intruded into the airspace of more than 40 countries across five continents — was exposed to the world.”
The balloon incident prompted Blinken to postpone a planned visit to Beijing.
The February 5-6 trip would have been the first by a US secretary of state to China in five years and was seen by both countries as an opportunity to stabilise their strained ties.
During Saturday’s meeting, Blinken also raised the Russia-Ukraine war with Wang.

“There were concerns that China was considering providing lethal support to Russia in its war against Ukraine. I was able to share with him, as President Biden had shared with President Xi, the serious consequences that would have for our relationship,” Blinken said.
He also underscored the importance of maintaining diplomatic dialogue and open lines of communication at all times.
“Finally, it was important for me to underscore that we believe having lines of communication, engaging in direct diplomacy, is very important. We have a responsibility to manage our relationship in a responsible manner,” he added.
The two diplomats could meet again in New Delhi next month on the sidelines of the G-20 Foreign Ministers meeting.
The meeting between the two senior officials came hours after Wang renewed Beijing’s criticism of the US for shooting down what Washington says was a Chinese spy balloon, arguing at the conference in Germany that the move doesn’t point to US strength.
“The actions don’t show that the US is big and strong, but describe the exact opposite,” Wang explained.
“This is actually a political farce created by the US. We have categorically told them that this is a civilian unmanned airship. Due to the influence of the super westerly winds and its limited control ability, it deviated from the planned path and entered the skies over the US. We have asked them to work with China and handle it properly in a rational, calm and professional manner,” Xinhua news agency, quoted Wang as saying.
After delivering the keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference, Wang told the Chinese media that everyone is concerned about how the recent balloon incident has strained the Sino-US relations.
“Regrettably, the US ignored the basic facts and brazenly dispatched fighter planes to shoot down a non-threatening airship with missiles. This behaviour is unbelievable, almost hysterical, and a 100 per cent abuse of force, which clearly violates international conventions,” he added.
Wang urged Washington to show sincerity, correct its mistakes and resolve the damage caused to the Sino-US relations due to this incident.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 19, 2023
F-16s, longer-range missiles could help Ukraine beat Russia, U.S. general privately tells lawmakers

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The general’s answer goes further than previous public comments by top national security officials, who have said they haven’t ruled out sending fighter jets in the future, but also note that air defenses are the most urgent current need.
Cavoli told the lawmakers at the Munich Security Conference that the U.S. and its allies should send the most advanced weapons they can part with to Ukraine. That included advanced aircraft, drones and missiles with ranges over 62 miles (100 kilometers), such as the Army Tactical Missile System. Those weapons would do a better job positioning Kyiv to repel Moscow’s troops, Cavoli said.
The general, who serves as both the supreme allied commander for Europe and as head of U.S. European Command, argued that Ukraine needs more advanced weapons and equipment to “enhance the deep fight,” per one of five people. A second person said Cavoli believes the West should equip Ukraine to “reach further” into Russian positions within Ukraine’s border.
A spokesperson for the general didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The remarks come as the transatlantic debate on whether to provide Kyiv with advanced aircraft has intensified.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long called for fighter jets, arguing that Ukrainian pilots are skilled enough to train on Western-made warplanes and control the skies despite Russia’s air defenses. But President Joe Biden and some European leaders have so far rebuffed that request, saying that the provision of tanks and artillery are more important for the current phase of the war.
That stance has frustrated advocates of providing Ukraine with whatever the U.S. can afford to hand over. “The F-16s are an absolute must,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters on the sidelines of the conference. He accused the White House of being “slow on everything,” adding, “what you saw with the tanks is going to happen with the jets.”
On Thursday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers sent a letter to Biden urging him to send F-16s right away, POLITICO reported.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who met with Cavoli and Ukrainian leaders in Munich, said he supports identifying Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews and bringing them to the United States for training.
“It is the right thing to do to come up with a plan to identify personnel to be trained, along with the maintainers and develop a syllabus” on how to operate and repair the complex fourth-generation fighter plane. Kelly was not one of the five people who confirmed that Cavoli discussed sending more advanced weapons.
Kelly, a retired Navy pilot with combat experience, added that Ukrainians are interested in using the warplane to hit Russian air defense systems from far away, which would then allow other aircraft and drones to operate more freely across the country, particularly in the east and south where the fighting is concentrated.
The British government promised to train Ukrainians on NATO-standard aircraft, but didn’t provide a timeline for when or if London would send those warplanes eastward.
“The first step in being able to provide advanced aircrafts is to have soldiers or aviators who are capable of using them,” U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said last week while standing alongside Zelenskyy. “We need to make sure they are able to operate the aircraft they might eventually be using.”
Both American and British officials continue to say that nothing is off the table.
Slovakia, meanwhile, is in talks with Ukraine about sending MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. “The Ukrainian president asked me to deliver the MiGs. Now, because this official request has come, the process of negotiations can be started,” Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger said last week. “Our MiGs can save innocent lives in Ukraine.”
Cavoli spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart this week about what other military aid Kyiv needs. Also this week, allies started training Ukrainian troops on Leopard 2 and other tanks that Germany in January approved to be sent.
Any new, modern capability the Ukrainians receive will have a major impact on the fighting this year. Russian forces have stalled out in Donbas, launching costly attacks on Ukrainian lines that can be measured in feet rather than miles, and their poorly trained conscripts- and prisoners-turned-soldiers are struggling.
“The Russians will try to launch an offensive” this spring, a NATO official said on the sidelines of the gathering. “I don’t know how effective they’re going to be. I don’t know how much different it’s going to look than what everything else has looked like. … I don’t know what else they can do.”
That doesn’t mean the Ukrainians will have an easy go of it.
“People need to be aware that this is going to be a long fight,” the official said. “This is a war. This is not a crisis. This is not some small incident somewhere that can be managed. This is not a skirmish. This is an all-out war.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 19, 2023
India reaps pricing benefits of crude oil imports from Russia

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Chennai: In the case of oil imports, India till now is on a firm path of sourcing the product cheaply from Russia since the latters invasion of Ukraine.
This is much against the wishes of the western powers who want to bring down the Russian economy by curbing its oil revenue.
However, the Indian government has categorically said that it would source what it needs from where the price is advantageous.
The government also said its three oil marketing companies are not buying crude from Russia but only the private companies are the ones who are buying, refining and shipping out.
According to reports, India’s exports of petroleum products shot up to $78.58 billion for the period April 2022 to January 2023, from $50.77 billion shipped out during the previous year corresponding period.
Fueled by the imports of crude oil, India’s imports from Russia went up by about 384 per cent to $37.31 billion during April 2022-January 2023. As a result, Russia became India’s fourth largest import partner up from 18th position in 2021-22.
The soaring oil imports from Russia have prevented India from paying for the commodities in Rupees.
Queried about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Indian oil sector, Sweta Patodia, AVP, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service told IANS: “Crude oil and international fuel prices have surged following the Russia-Ukraine war. Net realized prices for the oil marketing companies in India, however, have not increased at the same pace which has resulted in significant marketing losses for them.

“While the marketing losses were steep in the first half of the fiscal year, it has narrowed since then.”
According to Patodia, the EU imposed price cap on Russian crude purchases will have an impact on the overall crude oil market but any assessment of specific impact will be speculative.
On the Russian announcement of cutting down oil production following the price cap, Patodia said: “Reduction in oil production from Russia, if not met by a corresponding increase in production from other producers or demand moderation, will reduce the overall supply relative to demand and may strengthen the crude oil prices.”
According to a recent credit rating report by ICRA on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), the latter’s subsidiary OVL’s assets in Russia were impacted due to geopolitical issues and normal operations in these are expected to resume shortly.
Moody’s in a research report last March said ONGC, Oil India, Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) have invested in upstream oil and gas assets in Russia.
According to Moody’s import bans and international sanctions on Russia may constrain the future cash flow-generating capacity of these assets and lead to impairment losses for the companies.
Indian companies, however, have not announced an exit from their Russian investments. An immediate impairment in the value of investments will be limited, especially in the current oil price environmentChennai, Feb 18 (IANS) In the case of oil imports, India till now is on a firm path of sourcing the product cheaply from Russia since the latters invasion of Ukraine.
This is much against the wishes of the western powers who want to bring down the Russian economy by curbing its oil revenue.
However, the Indian government has categorically said that it would source what it needs from where the price is advantageous.
The government also said its three oil marketing companies are not buying crude from Russia but only the private companies are the ones who are buying, refining and shipping out.
According to reports, India’s exports of petroleum products shot up to $78.58 billion for the period April 2022 to January 2023, from $50.77 billion shipped out during the previous year corresponding period.
Fueled by the imports of crude oil, India’s imports from Russia went up by about 384 per cent to $37.31 billion during April 2022-January 2023. As a result, Russia became India’s fourth largest import partner up from 18th position in 2021-22.
The soaring oil imports from Russia have prevented India from paying for the commodities in Rupees.
Queried about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Indian oil sector, Sweta Patodia, AVP, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service told IANS: “Crude oil and international fuel prices have surged following the Russia-Ukraine war. Net realized prices for the oil marketing companies in India, however, have not increased at the same pace which has resulted in significant marketing losses for them.
“While the marketing losses were steep in the first half of the fiscal year, it has narrowed since then.”
According to Patodia, the EU imposed price cap on Russian crude purchases will have an impact on the overall crude oil market but any assessment of specific impact will be speculative.
On the Russian announcement of cutting down oil production following the price cap, Patodia said: “Reduction in oil production from Russia, if not met by a corresponding increase in production from other producers or demand moderation, will reduce the overall supply relative to demand and may strengthen the crude oil prices.”
According to a recent credit rating report by ICRA on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), the latter’s subsidiary OVL’s assets in Russia were impacted due to geopolitical issues and normal operations in these are expected to resume shortly.
Moody’s in a research report last March said ONGC, Oil India, Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) have invested in upstream oil and gas assets in Russia.
According to Moody’s import bans and international sanctions on Russia may constrain the future cash flow-generating capacity of these assets and lead to impairment losses for the companies.
Indian companies, however, have not announced an exit from their Russian investments. An immediate impairment in the value of investments will be limited, especially in the current oil price environment.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 18, 2023
‘No contradiction’ in India remaining US partner & its buying crude oil from Russia: US

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New Delhi: By driving a hard bargain with Russia in procuring crude oil at the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of G7 and Washington is “comfortable” with New Delhi over its approach in addressing issues relating to energy security, a top Biden administration official said.
In an exclusive interview to PTI, Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey R Pyatt said there is “no contradiction at all” in India remaining one of the key global partners of the US and the country’s increasing procurement of discounted crude oil from Russia.
The comments are the first clear articulation of the Biden administration’s position on India’s increasing procurement of discounted crude oil from Russia amid the Ukraine conflict.
Asked whether the US will impose secondary sanctions on Indian banks if they use the Rupee-Rouble mechanism set up by India and Russia for bilateral trade, the top diplomat chose not to speculate on it but said Washington’s sanctions are only aimed at punishing Moscow.
The US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy also said the Indian companies are “very successfully” negotiating the price for Russian crude oil which enabled Indian refiners to then put the product on the global market at a “very competitive and profitable price”.
Pyatt, during his February 16-17, visit to New Delhi, said India is a critical partner for the US on everything around energy transition and both sides are looking at an array of options to significantly expand the collaboration including in areas of green hydrogen and civil nuclear energy.
“Our experts assess that India right now is enjoying the discount of about USD 15 a barrel in the price that it is paying for its imports of Russian crude. So India, by acting in its own interest, by driving a hard bargain to get the lowest price possible, is furthering the policy of our G7 coalition, our G7 plus partners in seeking to reduce Russian revenues,” Pyatt said.
“I think that is how we look at this. We have a very good dialogue with the government of India on these issues,” he said.

“But I think what is very important for everybody to understand is that this is not a temporary state of affairs. There is going to be no return to business as usual with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin continues to choose this course of aggression,” Pyatt said.
India, the world’s third-largest crude importer after China and the US, has been snapping discounted Russian oil after many Western countries shunned it as a means of punishing Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
Also, the G7 (US,UK,Germany,France,Italy,Japan,Canada) imposed a cap on the oil price that came into effect in December and stopped countries from paying more than USD 60 a barrel to Russia for oil procurement with an aim to stop Moscow profiting from its oil exports.
Pyatt, who served in Ukraine as US ambassador said Russian President Putin has not only lost his major market in Europe through his action, but he has also spurred the Europeans to double down their investment in the clean and most secure energy sources.
“So, we are very comfortable with where India is on these issues, but most importantly we are strongly committed to a close dialogue with the Indian government on this and I will continue that dialogue in my discussions,” he said.
To a question on whether he sees any contradiction in India remaining one of the strongest global partners of the US and its increasing procurement of crude oil from Russia, Pyatt said he does not think so.
“No contradiction at all. To the contrary, we see India as a really critical partner for the United States on everything around both energy transition and also energy security,” he said.
“We understand that energy security has been disrupted by the actions of Putin and…have to work together to build a more resilient system and to deal with the consequences of Moscow’s actions,” he added.
On apprehensions among Indian banks to use the Rupee-Rouble mechanism Pyatt only said the Biden administration has not sanctioned third countries.
“I don’t want to get into too much of a speculative scenario …but what I want to be clear is that our policy has been focused on punishing Russia, trying to change Russia’s behaviour. We have not sanctioned third countries as part of this effort. I will leave it there for now,” he said.
“I am very comfortable with the status of the US-India conversation on this question of Russian crude oil,” Pyatt said.
The US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy pointed out the cost of Russian aggression on the globe, especially in countries like India.
“This disruption, I am fully aware, is imposing a cost not just on Europe but globally, but especially in countries like India. You see the effect on commodity prices and rising prices of fertilisers. Huge swings have taken place in the price of crude oil which affects every farmer,” Pyatt said.
“The US has worked very closely with our partners to build a structure through the G7 price cap mechanism intended to reduce the resources which Vladimir Putin gets from his oil and gas, which he uses to pay for the brutal war of aggression, but at the same time to keep that product on the global market,” he said.
Pyatt said the US recognises that India, as an energy importer, is severely affected by the disruption.
“We have to remember why this happened. It happened because of one man and I think we also see an important role for India in the context of ensuring that this can never happen again,” he said.
The US Assistant Secretary of State also said the policy of the G7 is working.
“You can see it is working in the growing Russian deficits,” he said
The Indian government has been vehemently defending its oil trade with Russia, saying it has to source oil from where it is the cheapest.
Pyatt also accused Putin of weaponising Russian energy resources through his actions.
“He has lost Russia’s traditional largest market for oil and gas in Europe. Everybody talks about European dependence on Russian oil and gas but they forget the other side of the coin which is Russia’s dependence on Europe. That market is gone,” Pyatt said.
“We cannot lose sight of the fact that the only reason that the world has gone through this huge disruption is one man’s obsession with denying the reality of a sovereign Ukrainian state,” he said.
“Let’s remember how we got here. We got here because 12 months ago, Vladimir Putin chose to invade a sovereign country because he denied its existence,” the US diplomat said.
“He has caused untold suffering of innocent civilians. He has been responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians including women and children. He tried to systematically destroy the Ukrainian energy grid,” Pyatt said.
The senior diplomat said the crisis has created an incentive, particularly in places like Europe, to accelerate the energy transition.
“It is important to understand that Putin thought he could bring Europe to its knees by holding back gas resources, (but) that has failed and now that it has failed, he cannot play that card again. We have to make sure that he is never in a position to do that to anybody else,” Pyatt said.
The diplomat said the US and its G7 partners have put in place very rigorous sanctions against Russia not only against its product but also against the technology that the country uses.
He also cited an assessment by the International Energy Agency that by the end of 2030, Russia’s oil and gas revenues will decline by half because of Putin’s actions.
Pyatt served as US Ambassador to Ukraine from 2013 to 2016.
He has also served at the US Embassy in New Delhi in different positions – Deputy Chief of Mission from 2006 to 2007, Political Counselor from 2002 to 2006, and Political Officer from 1992 to 1994.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 17, 2023