Tag: risks

Recession risks rise for Biden and Democrats

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Other midsize banks including PacWest, Western Alliance and Zions came under heavy investor pressure late last week as Wall street probed for possible next victims in the rolling crisis, created in part by the Fed jacking up interest rates ten consecutive times to the highest level since 2007. The Fed bumped up rates another quarter point last week but suggested it could possibly pause the hikes at its next meeting in June.
The rate increases helped tamp down a historic rise in consumer inflation in the wake of the Covid pandemic. But prices are still rising significantly faster than the Fed’s target of around 2 percent per year.
The April employment report released on Friday, showing a still remarkably healthy 253,000 new jobs created, also showed wage increases bumping up to a 4.4 percent annual pace from 4.3 percent. The Fed is eager to see wage increases cool because they can feed into overall inflation as companies pass higher employment costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Shares in regional banks that got slammed late last week recovered somewhat over the last two trading sessions. And each bank has depositor profiles very different from the three failed lenders, which had much higher levels of accounts with above the FDIC insured threshold of $250,000.
Still, there remains heavy concern across Wall Street and among many economists that the Fed’s rapid and intense campaign of rate hikes meant to battle inflation will smash the brakes on the economy hard enough to create a recession.
Such a recession would come as Biden, who continues to suffer from very low approval ratings especially on the economy, is just launching his reelection effort. Republicans are poised to rip the incumbent and Congressional Democrats, arguing their heavy spending policies in the wake of Covid helped drive up inflation. The White House is also facing a possibly market-shaking showdown with Hill Republicans on the nation’s borrowing limit.
All the rate hikes are only just now beginning to ripple across the economy, driving down the homebuilding and other sectors as borrowing costs make it much more difficult for consumers to make big purchases and businesses to make major investments. That impact showed up in the survey released on Monday, officially known as the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey or “SLOOS.” The report, while not as dire as some feared, showed that the banking sector meltdown is causing lenders to tighten up even further.
“Banks most frequently cited an expected deterioration in the credit quality of their loan portfolios and in customers’ collateral values, a reduction in risk tolerance, and concerns about bank funding costs, bank liquidity position, and deposit outflows as reasons for expecting to tighten lending standards over the rest of 2023,” the report said.

The Fed in a separate report Monday cited a potential contraction in lending triggered by bank stress as one of the financial system’s top near-term risks. Businesses would feel the brunt of the impact.
“A sharp contraction in the availability of credit would drive up the cost of funding for businesses and households, potentially resulting in a slowdown in economic activity,” Fed officials said in the report. “With a decline in profits of nonfinancial businesses, financial stress and defaults at some firms could increase, especially in light of the generally high level of leverage in that sector.”
Many economists — including Democrats like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers — argue that all the hikes will eventually cause at least a brief recession that drives the jobless rate higher, knocking out a key pillar of Biden’s pitch for a second term. The economy expanded at just a 1.1 percent pace in the first quarter of the year, according to an initial government estimate. And many economists now see significant odds of a recession starting later this year and possibly dragging into the 2024 campaign year.
“The Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey provides the first real insight into how much lending has tightened on the back of turmoil among local and regional banks,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US. “While banks have been tightening lending standards for the past year, the jump in the percentage of those reporting further tightening does denote an increase in the risk of a hard economic landing.”
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#Recession #risks #rise #Biden #Democrats
( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

May 9, 2023
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol honored the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korean alliance and warned of risks to democracy in an address to Congress.

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Yoon also strongly condemned the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

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#South #Korean #PresidentYoon #Suk #Yeol #honoredthe #70th #anniversary #U.S.South #Korean #alliance #warned #risks #democracy #address #Congress
( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

April 27, 2023
Sitharaman meets IMF’s Gita Gopinath, discusses downside risks to economy

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New Delhi: Union Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman met IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath in Washington D.C., during which she noted the monetary body’s concerns on key downside risks to the economy including financial sector stress, inflation and geo-political fragmentation as well as faltering growth in China.
The meeting took place on Tuesday on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings.
According to the Finance Ministry, Sitharaman congratulated Gopinath for accelerating India’s work on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable along with the World Bank and reiterated New Delhi’s commitment to foster efforts to address growing debt vulnerabilities.

Sitharaman also acknowledged IMF’s support to India’s G20 Presidency in the form of inputs towards developing evidence-based policy guidance.
Meanwhile, the top IMF official congratulated the Union Minister on the “fruitful discussions that translated the February consensus on the need for a globally coordinated policy response on crypto assets into an agreed set of guiding principles and an action plan on crypto assets”, said the Ministry.
Taking to Twitter following the meeting, Gopinath said: “Had a very good discussion with Finance Minister Sitharaman at the IMF-World Bank spring meetings, to discuss the progress being made under India’s G20 Presidency on debt issues and crypto related challenges.”
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#Sitharaman #meets #IMFs #Gita #Gopinath #discusses #downside #risks #economy
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

April 12, 2023
Two Adani group companies face ‘contagion risks’: Fitch report

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New Delhi: Global ratings agency Fitch has said that two companies within the Adani Group – Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd. and Adani Transmission Ltd. – face increased “contagion risks” due to weak governance within the conglomerate.
The report, released on Tuesday in Singapore, suggests that until these concerns are addressed, the ratings for Adani Transmission and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone will remain capped at their current level of “BBB-/Stable”.
Fitch also noted that as of the end of December 2022, the debt of Adani’s rated Indian entities was largely secured and held offshore, with U.S. dollar bonds maturing from mid-2024. Therefore, there are no immediate concerns about repayment.
Adani debunks reports on repayment of loans against shares
Meanwhile, the Adani Group has strongly refuted news reports which make the baseless and deliberately mischievous claim that the Group has not completed the repayment of USD 2.15 billion in share-backed debt.
Adani has completed full prepayment of margin linked share backed financing aggregating to USD 2.15 billion and all corresponding shares pledged for those facilities have been released.
Adani said all share backed facilities availed by the promoters have been paid off.
After the statement, stocks of Adani Group companies rebounded.

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#Adani #group #companies #face #contagion #risks #Fitch #report
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

March 30, 2023
IMF’s Georgieva: ‘Risks to financial stability have increased’

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The outlook for the global economy is likely to remain weak in the medium term amid heightened risks to financial stability, according to International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
“We expect 2023 to be another challenging year, with global growth slowing to below 3 percent as scarring from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and monetary tightening weigh on economic activity,” Georgieva said on Sunday at a conference in China. “Even with a better outlook for 2024, global growth will remain well below its historic average of 3.8 percent,” she said.
“It is also clear that risks to financial stability have increased,” Georgieva said. “At a time of higher debt levels, the rapid transition from a prolonged period of low-interest rates to much higher rates — necessary to fight inflation — inevitably generates stresses and vulnerabilities, as evidenced by recent developments in the banking sector in some advanced economies.”
Policymakers have acted decisively in response to threats to financial stability, helping ease market stress to some extent, she said. But “uncertainty is high, which underscores the need for vigilance,” she added.
Georgieva also warned about risks of geo-economic fragmentation, which she said “could mean a world split into rival economic blocs — a ‘dangerous division’ that would leave everyone poorer and less secure. Together, these factors mean that the outlook for the global economy over the medium term is likely to remain weak,” she said.
Georgieva spoke during the second day of the China Development Forum in Beijing. The three-day annual event is a social mixer of politics and business, bringing together members of the Chinese Politburo with dozens of CEOs from Western companies like Siemens, Mercedes-Benz and Allianz.
“Fortunately, the news on the world economy is not all bad. We can see some ‘green shoots,’ including in China,” Georgieva said, adding that Beijing is set to account for around a third of the global growth this year.

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#IMFs #Georgieva #Risks #financial #stability #increased
( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

March 23, 2023
Herpes Zoster, ‘Shingles Awareness Week’ to inform about the risks

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The ‘Shingles Awareness Week’ is back from 27 February to 5 March, a global week to increase understanding of the impact of Herpes Zoster, the so-called Shingles, on the lives of fragile people and patients and to encourage discussion on the risks and on the complications of this disease that can be prevented. Promoted worldwide by GlaxoSmithKline (Gsk) in collaboration with the International Federation on Aging (Ifa), and in Italy under the patronage of Italia Longeva, the second edition of the initiative finds a country more attentive to the issue of prevention and more inclined to deepen the risks of the disease, but still poorly informed.
In a survey conducted by Ipsos in Italy on 300 people between the ages of 40 and 75 – reports Gsk – it emerges that there is still little awareness of St. Anthony’s Fire: 47% of the sample does not know the seriousness of the pathology and only one out of two know that debilitating pain is one of the main symptoms. Despite this, the majority of participants (64%) acknowledge that the impact of shingles on quality of life is “extremely negative”. Just to underline the fact that this painful and disabling pathology can be prevented, the theme of Shingles Awareness Week 2023 is ‘Ignite your passions, don’t let the shingles stop you’.
The virus that causes Herpes Zoster is that of varicella-zoster, which causes chicken pox, a note recalls. More than 90% of adults over 50 have already contracted the virus and one in three adults will develop the disease in their lifetime. That’s why it’s important to be aware of the possible risks and discuss with your doctor to find out what prevention tools are available today and what you can do to reduce the risk of developing shingles. “Herpes Zoster, a recrudescence of the varicella virus experienced as children, when it recurs in adulthood attacks the nerves, especially in those subjects, such as the elderly, who have a deficient immunity or a frail picture due to the presence of comorbidities – says Roberto Bernabei, president of Italia Longeva – The disease greatly worsens the quality of life of those affected and can have very dangerous results if it affects some critical points such as the trigeminal nerve, even causing blindness. post-herpetic, a complication that can manifest itself after some time causing excruciating pain along the affected nerve, often not treatable with drugs.A way to ensure that the shingles do not light up and avoid all these dreadful sequelae c ‘is and is vaccination’.
Particular attention to the issue of the protection of fragile patients – continues the note – is reserved for people with type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus, for whom the Italian Society of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health (Siti), the diabetes doctors (AMD) and the Italian Society of Diabetology (SID) have recommended, as stated in a joint document dated 25 January, the “anti-Herpes Zoster vaccination with adjuvanted recombinant vaccine starting from 18 years of age”, in addition to the others available (anti-influenza, anti-pneumococcal, anti-Sars-CoV-2, anti-meningococcal B and ACWY, anti-hepatitis B, anti-diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and anti-measles, mumps, rubella and varicella).
The Ipsos survey also shows that only 26% have spoken to their doctor about shingles and prevention tools and, among patients suffering from other comorbidities and who are immunosuppressed for other conditions, the figure rises to 30%. The interviewees agree on one thing: for 65% it should be the doctor himself who initiates the discussion about the disease with his patient. “Vaccines ‘make life’, but there is no awareness, especially among the elderly, of this opportunity for prevention which helps to age better – observes Bernabei – In the case of Herpes Zoster, today we have a recombinant protein vaccine available which it has proven to be highly effective in preventing the disease and its sequelae, offered free of charge to 65-year-olds and subjects at increased risk, based on regional access.One more reason to evaluate the opportunity to get vaccinated together with your trusted doctor “.
There are many public initiatives that offer opportunities for free prevention both to the population over 65 and to frail people, through vaccination projects and campaigns. Among these, the Open day organized by the A. Gemelli Irccs University Hospital in Rome on Thursday 2 March, that of 28 February at the Vaccination Center of the San Giuseppe Moscati Hospital in Avellino and, on Saturday 4 March, in Milan at the Great Metropolitan Hospital Niguarda. Added to these appointments are the initiatives of active calls for the anti-Herpes Zoster vaccination, promoted by various health agencies at the local level for those over 65, such as those envisaged in Lombardy by Asst Valle Olona and in Veneto by the Ulss company 8 Berica.
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#Herpes #Zoster #Shingles #Awareness #Week #inform #risks
( With inputs from : pledgetimes.com )

February 27, 2023
Lithium discovery important for India’s EV push but mining poses serious environmental risks: Experts

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New Delhi, Feb 24: The discovery of lithium in Jammu and Kashmir is significant for India’s push towards electric vehicles but any environmental gains could be negated if it is not mined carefully, say experts, citing risks such as air pollution and soil degradation in the fragile Himalayan region.
The Geological Survey of India recently identified a potential deposit of 5.9 million tonnes of lithium in Reasi district’s Salal-Haimana area, the first such anywhere in India, which imports lithium. GSI said the site is an “inferred resource” of the metal, which means it is at a preliminary exploration stage, the second of a four-step process.
The discovery of lithium deposits can be a potential “game changer” for the country’s clean energy manufacturing ambitions in several ways, said Siddharth Goel, senior policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
“First of all, the scale of the reserves is significant, and can — if proven to be commercially viable — reduce India’s reliance on imports of lithium-ion cells, which are a key component for EV batteries and other clean energy technologies,” he said.
But there is a flip side too.
“Reports indicate that approximately 2.2 million litres of water are needed to produce one tonne of lithium. Further, mining in the unstable Himalayan terrain is fraught with risks,” cautioned Saleem H. Ali, distinguished professor of Energy and the Environment at the University of Delaware.
Lithium mining in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, for instance, has led to concerns over soil degradation, water shortages and contamination, air pollution and biodiversity loss.
“This is because the mining process is extremely water-intensive, and also contaminates the landscape and the water supplies if not done in a sustainable method,” Ali said.

According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), about a fourth of the Earth’s known lithium deposits (88 million tonnes) would be economical to mine, said Charith Konda, energy analyst, Electricity Sector at at US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
“Applying this benchmark, India could probably economically extract 1.5 million tonnes of lithium from the 5.9 million tonnes discovered in preliminary studies,” Konda told PTI.
Economically here would mean that the resources and technology used to extract will give good return in terms of usage of the resource.
“India has a vision of increasing the share of electric vehicle sales to 30 per cent in private cars, 70 per cent in commercial vehicles, 40 per cent in buses, and 80 per cent in two- and three-wheelers by 2030. In absolute numbers, this could translate to 80 million EVs on Indian roads by 2030,” Konda said.
The battery pack of an average electric car, he explained, requires 8 kg of lithium. By this metric, India’s economically extractable lithium reserves should be enough to power 184.4 million electric cars.
Currently, India is import dependent for several elements such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. Ministry of Commerce data shows that India spent around Rs 26,000 crore importing lithium between 2018-2021.
In 2021, preliminary surveys by Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration and Research (AMD) showed the presence of lithium resources of 1,600 tonnes in Mandya District in Karnataka. However, there has been no report of mining the resource till date.
An IISD study found that access to critical elements such as lithium is a key challenge faced by companies investing in India’s EV ecosystem.
“These reserves could potentially be a huge carrot to attract investment into domestic battery manufacturing and other clean energy technologies,” Goel said
The potential site in Reasi has the same amount of lithium as the reserves in the US and more than China’s current reserves which are around 4.5 million tonnes.
However, the world’s largest lithium reserves in South America — especially in Bolivia, Chile and Argentina — are several times greater, collectively over 40 million metric tonnes.
According to University of Delaware’s Ali, domestic supply of usable lithium, if developed, could help develop batteries for solar and wind storage and EV usage.
What is critical in this scenario is the government putting in place the right support to make sure that securing these critical minerals is done in a socially and environmentally responsible manner, experts agree.
Environmentalists also argue that the focus should be on redesigning cities to reduce car usage in general instead of using metals like lithium to shift to EVs.
“This could specially be done in high density population centres of India with smarter urban planning,” Ali said.
This is because even when safeguards try to limit the social and environmental harm around fossil fuel extraction, which is considerable, there is no “fix” for air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, IISD’s Goel added.
“Given that lithium-ion batteries are the most advanced batteries available, they would continue to play a major role for the foreseeable future. India should mine lithium with proper environmental and social safeguards in place given the ecological and political sensitivities of the area,” IEEFA’s Konda said.–(PTI)
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#Lithium #discovery #important #Indias #push #mining #poses #environmental #risks #Experts
( With inputs from : roshankashmir.net )

February 24, 2023
India can mitigate risks like Joshimath instead of embracing them

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By Feroze Varun Gandhi
On Dec 24, 2009, a tunnel boring machine drilling into the mountain on which Joshimath resides punctured an aquifer ~3km away from Selang village – this resulted in water being discharged at ~700-800 litres per second (enough to sustain the needs of 20-30 lakh people per day) (Upadhyay, Kavita, Jan 2023). Soon after, groundwater sources in Joshimath started drying up – over time, the discharge reduced but never stopped. Meanwhile, Joshimath, built on a mountain slope with deposits from a landslide, has no system to manage wastewater. Instead, most buildings use a soak-pit mechanism, which leads to sewage entering the ground and potentially exacerbating land sinking. In addition, ongoing infrastructure projects (e.g. the Tapovan Vishnugad dam, Helang-Marwari bypass road) may have exacerbated the situation (Upadhyay, Kavita, Jan 2023). This irreversible loss is a harbinger of worse to come.
Sadly, land subsidence incidents in hilly urban India are increasingly common. ~12.6% of India’s land area is prone to landslides, with some of this falling in hilly urban regions of Sikkim, West Bengal, Uttarakhand etc. Urban policy makes this worse – as per the National Institute for Disaster Management (and in the National Landslide Risk Management Strategy, Sep 2019), construction in such landscapes is often driven by building byelaws that ignore local geological and environmental factors (Moudgil, Manu, Oct 2020). Consequently, land use planning in Himalayan towns and the Western Ghats is often ill-conceived when planned, and primarily unplanned – all adding up to slope instability. As a result, landslide vulnerability has risen, exacerbated by tunnelling construction that weakens rock formations.
A first step towards enhancing urban resilience with regard to land subsidence requires credible data. We need to map landslide risk at a granular level. The Geological Survey of India has conducted a national mapping exercise (at a 1:50,000 scale, with each cm denoting ~0.5km). Urban policymakers need to take this further, with additional detail and localization (e.g. at a 1:1000 scale) (Moudgil, Manu, Oct 2020). Areas with high landslide risk should not be allowed to expand large infrastructure, with a push to reduce human interventions and adhere to carrying capacity. Select examples show the way – Aizawl, in Mizoram, is in Seismic Zone V, and is built on very steep slopes – an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7 would easily trigger over 1,000 landslides, collapsing 13,000 buildings (Moudgil, Manu, Oct 2020). The city has prepared by developing a landslide action plan (with a push to reach 1:500 scale), and updated regulations to guide construction activities in hazardous zones. The city’s landslide policy committee is cross-disciplinary in nature, and seeks inputs from civic society and university students, with a push to continually update risk zones.
Furthermore, any site development in hazardous zones requires assessment by a geologist (w.r.t soil suitability and slope stability) and an evaluation of the potential impact on nearby buildings. Corrective measures (e.g. retention walls) are then required, with a push to prohibit construction in hazardous areas. In Gangtok, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham has helped set up a real-time landslide monitoring and early warning system, with multiple sensors highlighting the impact of rainfall infiltration, water movement and slope instability (Moudgil, Manu, Oct 2020).
Beyond land subsidence, flood risk is also becoming frequent. In August 2019, the township of Palava City (Phase I and II) in Dombivli in Maharashtra was flooded, with ~5 ft water depth in much of Phase I – incessant rain led to vehicles being submerged and electricity connections being switched off (Gupta, Pradeep, Aug 2019). Residents were stranded in their flats until the water was drained out using pumps. While seasonal downpours have increased in intensity, the impact of seasonal flooding was worsened by a simple fact – the township, spread over 4,500 acres, was built on the flood plains of the river Mothali! When planned townships are approved, with a distinct lack of concern for natural hazards, such incidents are bound to occur. Such tales are awfully familiar – Panjim was hit by floods in July 2021 – incessant rains led to local rivers swelling up and flooding homes, with urban settlements along the Mandovi affected in particular (Lobo, Aaron Savio, Bhandari, Ashali, Kuppu, Karthikeyan, Mar 2022). Again, urban planning had a role to play – the city, built on the marshlands that lie astride on the floodplains of the river Mandovi, was once fringed by mangroves and fertile fields, which helped bolster its flood resilience.
Meanwhile, other cities continue to face a high risk of flooding in the near future – in Delhi, there are ~9,350 households living in Yamuna floodplains (Hargovind, Abhinaya, Mar 2022). IPCC’s report (in March 2022) highlighted that Kolkata faced a significant risk of subsidence due to a rise in sea levels and flooding. Poor urban planning, combined with climate change, will mean that our cities will be perennially flooded.
Flood-proofing our cities will require measures on various axes – urban planners will have to temper the push to fill up local water bodies, canals and drains and focus on enhancing sewerage and the stormwater drain network. Existing sewerage networks need to be expanded, in coverage and depth, to enable wastewater in low-lying urban geographies to drain away. Additionally, there needs to be a push to desilt rivers that frequently overflow, along with a push for coastal walls in areas at risk from sea rise. Beyond this, greater spending on building flood-resilient architecture (e.g. constructing river embankments, constructing flood shelters in coastal areas), along with flood warning systems, is necessary (Parida, Yashobanta, Bharadwaj, Parul, Sahoo, Prakash Kumar, Aug 2022). In addition, there needs to be a push for protecting “blue infra” areas – i.e. places that act as natural sponges for absorbing surface runoff, allowing groundwater to be recharged. As rainfall patterns and intensity change, urban authorities will need to invest in simulation capacity to determine flooding hotspots and flood risk maps, along with integrating relief efforts (Prakash, Anjal, Goswami, Aishani, Aug 2020).

Urban India doesn’t have to embrace such risks. We can mitigate them – if our cities proactively incorporate environmental planning, with a push for enhancing natural open spaces. Urban master plans need to consider the impact of climate change and extreme weather (e.g. planning for ~125 mm per hour peak rainfall in Bengaluru in the future, vs 75 mm currently; Shakeel, Shobhan, Nov 2022). Urban authorities in India should continually assess and update disaster risk and preparedness planning. Early warning systems will also be critical (Rajshekhar, M., Jan 2021). Finally, each city needs to have a disaster management framework in place, with a push for having large arterial roads that allow people and goods to move in and out of the city at pace. Our urban journey is not limited to an election cycle – we must plan for a multi-generational process.
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#India #mitigate #risks #Joshimath #embracing
( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 17, 2023
World risks descending into a climate ‘doom loop’, warn thinktanks

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The world is at risk of descending into a climate “doom loop”, a thinktank report has warned.
It said simply coping with the escalating impacts of the climate crisis could draw resources and focus away from the efforts to slash carbon emissions, making the situation even worse.
The damage caused by global heating across the globe is increasingly clear, and recovering from climate disasters is already costing billions of dollars. Furthermore, these disasters can cause cascading problems including water, food and energy crises, as well as increased migration and conflict, all draining countries’ resources.
The researchers, from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Chatham House, said a current example of the impact of the climate crisis complicating efforts to reduce emissions and other action was the debate over whether keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5C – the international goal – was still possible.
Those arguing 1.5C was still possible risked perpetuating complacency that today’s slow pace of action was sufficient, the researchers said, while those arguing it was not possible risked supporting fatalism that little that could now be done, or “extreme approaches” such as geoengineering.
Avoiding a doom loop required a more honest acceptance by politicians of the great risks posed by the climate crisis, the researchers said, including the looming prospect of tipping points and of the huge scale of the economic and societal transformation required to end global heating. This should be combined with narratives that focused on the great benefits climate action brought and ensuring policies were fairly implemented.
“We’ve entered, sadly, a new chapter in the climate and ecological crisis,” said Laurie Laybourn, an associate fellow at IPPR. “The phoney war is coming to an end and the real consequences now present us with difficult decisions. We absolutely can drive towards a more sustainable, more equitable world. But our ability to navigate through the shocks while staying focused on steering out the storm is key.”
The report said: “This is a doom loop: the consequences of the [climate] crisis draw focus and resources from tackling its causes, leading to higher temperatures and ecological loss, which then create more severe consequences, diverting even more attention and resources, and so on.”

It noted that, for example, Africa’s economy was already losing up to 15% of GDP a year to the worsening effects of global heating, cutting into funds needed for climate action and emphasising the need for support from developed countries, which emit the most carbon dioxide.
“The thing I’m most concerned about is that we’re not factoring in the cascading risks to societies,” said Laybourn. “It’s not just the big city-smashing storms we should be concerned about, it’s the consequences that ripple through our globalised systems.”
“For the UK, it may not necessarily be the sheer cost of responding to disasters that’s the biggest distraction. It could be that it has to deal at the same time with a food price shock and resurgent nativism, playing off fears about so-called climate refugees,” he added.
Laybourn said the narratives used to describe the situation were very important. For example, he said, greener transport was not simply about switching to electric vehicles, but about better public transport and redesigned cities that meant people were closer to the jobs, education and healthcare they needed. This in turn meant reevaluating local authority budgets and taxes to implement the change.
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Unfairness in climate policy could drive the doom loop, Laybourn said, because if people felt unaffordable changes were being forced on them they would reject the need for a green transition. But, he added: “If you have fairness at the heart of things, it can instead be a virtuous circle, if you’re in a situation where people recognise that switching to a heat pump and having better insulation will be better for them regardless of the climate crisis.”
Making progress on climate action resilient to difficulties posed by climate impacts was also crucial. “I’m a massive fan of citizens’ assemblies, because if people feel they have a role in decision making, they’re more likely to maintain their support, even in a future in which the shocks start to rack up. They become moments where we actually do build back better,” said Laybourn, unlike after the 2008 crash and Covid pandemic.
Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: “This report rightly highlights the critical point we have reached, namely the increasing likelihood that global temperature will rise by more than 1.5C. This does not mean that we should abandon the target.
“Our main aim should still be radical emissions cuts to try to avoid breaching 1.5C, but we should now also be considering what happens if we continue to fail.
“This will mean bringing temperatures back down [and] we will have to invest in geoengineering options such as carbon dioxide removal and even solar radiation management. But it also means we will have to spend far more on dealing with [climate] damage, which will make it more difficult to make the transition to a sustainable, inclusive and resilient world.”
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( With inputs from : www.theguardian.com )

February 16, 2023
Buttigieg said U.S. had to balance risks in deciding when to shoot down balloon

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An F-22 stealth fighter shot the balloon down off the coast of the Carolinas a week after the U.S. first started tracking it Jan. 28, POLITICO previously reported. The balloon crossed the continent in the succeeding days, from Alaska to Canadian airspace, then over Idaho and Montana to the Atlantic. The U.S. military is now attempting to recover the debris for intelligence purposes.
Even as Republicans continued to pile on criticism about the way the Biden administration handled the situation, Buttigieg pointed out that the mission was completed without any loss of American life or property. The Transportation secretary repeatedly characterized the balloon’s intrusion as unacceptable behavior from the Chinese government.
Pressed by host Jake Tapper about whether it could be assumed that the balloon gathered intelligence, Buttigieg said that was out of his purview.
“I’m sure there’s a similar presumption about what spy satellites do,” he said, pointing to China’s space program. He also declined to confirm exactly when the Biden administration first became aware of the balloon.
Republicans on Sunday continued to use Biden’s reaction to the balloon as evidence of the administration’s perceived weakness; they were happy to see the balloon shot down but argued it should have been done days earlier.
“What began as a spy balloon has become a trial balloon, testing President Biden’s strength and resolve, and unfortunately the President failed that test,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a frequent China hawk, said Sunday on Fox’s “Fox News Sunday.” “And that’s dangerous for the American people.”
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” repeatedly called the deployment of the balloon a “deliberate” act from China, an attempt to show the U.S. was a declining superpower that can’t be counted on by its allies in the Pacific and elsewhere.
“I can assure you that if we fly a balloon over China, they’d shoot it down,” Rubio said. Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Rubio added that the U.S. had to consider the risks to civilians in shooting the balloon down, but that there should have been earlier opportunities to down it.

Some of the criticism took the form of colorful language.
Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, compared the takedown of the balloon over the Atlantic to “tackling the quarterback after the game is over.”
“They didn’t go and look at the Grand Canyon. They went and looked at our nuclear weapons sites,” Turner alleged.
Speaking on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) was similarly descriptive.
“Letting a Chinese surveillance balloon lazily drift over America is like seeing a robber on your front porch and inviting him in, showing him where you keep your safe, where you keep your guns, where your children sleep at night, and then politely asking him to leave. It makes no sense,” said Gallagher, who is chair of the House Select Committee on China.
A senior defense official noted this week that it’s not the first time a Chinese spy balloon has entered U.S. air space, POLITICO previously reported. Such incidents occurred at least three times during President Donald Trump’s administration and once at the beginning of the Biden administration, but the flights were never for this duration.
While he was grateful for the military’s action taking down the balloon, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation” the U.S. has challenges with China beyond this single incident.
“We have a real problem with China on a number of issues, from their human rights violations to their violations of international business law, to even the challenges we’ve had with them on overt spying,” he said.
Biden told the Pentagon earlier in the week to shoot down the balloon, but military advisers recommended they wait until it was over water, Biden told reporters this week.
China, which has denied the balloon was used for spying, has threatened repercussions over its downing.
One former CIA counterterrorism official said he thought the whole controversy had been absurdly overinflated.
Speaking on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” Philip Mudd judged the crisis a “2” on a scale of 1 to 10 when it comes to national security issues.
“This says a lot more about the inability of Washington and Congress and the White House to talk about relatively insignificant national security issues than it does about intelligence,” he said. “Look, if the Chinese want to collect photos of America, you could get to Google Earth; you could get a Chinese secret satellite if they want to intercept communications. They could do it with satellites.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 5, 2023