Tag: rematch

“Trump’s obviously an extremely dangerous person who would be very dangerous for the country. But I’m confident that President Biden could beat him,” the retiring senator said in an interview. “Politically, for us, it’s helpful if former President Trump is front and center.”

“Broadly,” Stabenow added, “the public rejects him.”

As Trump reels in endorsements, rakes in campaign dollars and reclaims his lead in Republican primary polls, Democrats are growing more enthusiastic about his chances of clinching his party’s nomination. They think Trump would not only maximize Biden’s chances of a second term, but help the party battle for control of Congress.

With Biden set to announce his reelection bid as soon as Tuesday, Democrats aren’t blind to his stubbornly low approval ratings. But they also know Trump’s polarizing profile — including an indictment, his fixation on the 2020 election and polarizing profile both within his own party and among independents — could be their best matchup in 2024.

Of course, that was the same logic they applied in 2016. After Trump won the GOP nod, Democrats thought Hillary Clinton was in for a romp. With that in mind, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) warned Democrats “to be careful what you wish for.”

“I hope they realize that there’s at least a 50/50 chance — and even more than 50/50 — that he becomes president if he becomes the nominee,” the 2012 Republican nominee said. “They think he’s the easiest Republican to beat. That may be the case. But in my opinion, he’s someone the country would not be well served to have in the White House again.”

Nevertheless, Democrats still find themselves rooting for a Trump-Biden ballot as some polls show Trump would be weaker in a general election than someone like Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.

“Obviously, it’s politically helpful,” said Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who flipped a red seat in his party’s anti-Trump-fueled wave in 2018. “But that’s not good for the country.”

In the House, where Democrats need to flip just a handful of seats to win the majority, they’re betting on Trump’s ability to turn out blue voters and inspire Democratic fundraising. That amounts to a much more potent villain for campaign ads than Hill Republicans like Speaker Kevin McCarthy or other potential presidential candidates like DeSantis.

There’s always the chance Trump’s gravitational pull could propel more GOP voters, too, but Democrats believe the math is on their side. Just a handful of Democrats represent districts Trump won in 2020, like Jared Golden in northern Maine, Matt Cartwright in eastern Pennsylvania or Mary Peltola in Alaska.

There are 18 Republicans, though, who sit in seats that Biden carried — more than three times as many as Democrats need to flip the House.

“It’s very good for us,” said Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.), who’s held onto her own swing seat for a decade. Kuster called Trump “unelectable” in purple seats like hers, and predicted that if Republicans in Biden-friendly turf get behind Trump: “I think we’ll win them all.”

One of those Republicans is Rep. Mike Garcia, a Trump-endorsed Californian who’s survived three elections since 2020 in a heavily pro-Biden seat. He said he’s not sweating having Trump at the top of the ticket and posited that turbocharged turnout on both sides would be essentially a wash: “The left gets more excited, and our base gets more excited.”

Other Republicans predicted Biden’s presidency would help them more than Trump would hurt the GOP. “Two more years of this? I’m more and more confident every day,” said Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), a longtime Trump backer. “It’s looking really good for him right now.”

Across the Capitol, the battle for the Senate majority hinges on deep-red Trump states like Montana, West Virginia and Ohio. That means Democrats could win the presidency and perhaps the House but still lose the Senate, even with anti-Trump tailwinds. But further down the map, in purple states like Stabenow’s that Biden flipped in 2020, Democrats say their constituents are tired of Trump.

“I don’t want to see that for our country. I don’t even want to see that for the Republican Party,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) of a Trump nomination. “But if you’re just asking me numbers? We’ve seen that matchup before in Wisconsin. We can win that one.”

Still, some endangered Democrats worry that their party could again overlook Trump’s strength. They noted how he emerged with a stronger hand in the GOP primary after his indictment last month and acknowledged there are plenty of purple districts with enough Trump supporters to tip tough races. Plus, House Democrats still lost a handful of seats in 2020, even as they kept their majority and their party won back the White House.

A lesser-known candidate, like DeSantis or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, they argue, might not draw the same crowds. There’s also anxiety over how the election would change from 2020, as pandemic-era campaigning gives way to more traditional tactics and would require more time on the road for both the octogenarian president and his 76-year-old predecessor.

“Democrats are rightfully terrified of 2024 because they have to own Joe Biden’s disastrous economic record that has hurt Americans and his foreign policy blunders,” said Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for Trump’s campaign.

Nonetheless, there’s a gut feeling that Trump is more beatable.

“Personally, I think it’s probably better for Biden to have Trump as the nominee. But I don’t know that that’s true,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), one of Republicans’ top targets in 2024. “He’s a known commodity. Biden’s a known commodity. You just don’t know about the others. You don’t know how they’re gonna perform under pressure. You don’t know if they got a glass jaw.”

A Biden adviser argued that the president proved in previous contests that “he is second to none in prosecuting extreme MAGA candidates.” The adviser also noted Biden’s endurance traveling the country to sell his accomplishments, comparing him favorably to former President Barack Obama in 2011 ahead of his successful reelection campaign.

Still, using Trump as a cudgel in down-ballot races is now a tried-and-true Democratic campaign method everywhere but deep-red states like Montana. House Democrats’ campaign chief even began meddling in GOP primaries to boost pro-Trump opponents last cycle — with the hopes of helping their own candidates’ chances in the general election. It infuriated Democrats in the caucus, who feared it would backfire.

It didn’t, ultimately, but there’s still some apprehension about elevating candidates that Democrats simultaneously argue are more beatable and extreme.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a Biden confidante, said he’s “surprised at how strongly the former president is performing in the early polls. But not a single vote has been cast in a single primary or caucus.”

“If you look back at almost every previous election cycle, guesses about who was going to be the nominee, who would fare well, who would fare poorly, were almost always wrong,” Coons said. “Otherwise, we’d have President Giuliani or President Thompson or President [Hillary] Clinton.”