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Tag: Manchin

  • Republicans want Manchin to bow out, fearful that he may have one more trick up his sleeve

    Republicans want Manchin to bow out, fearful that he may have one more trick up his sleeve

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    Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.V.) said she doesn’t know whether her fellow home-state senator will run for reelection and hasn’t asked him about it. But a presidential bid? “He might — he’s talking about it,” she said.

    There’s no sugar-coating the dire position in which Manchin finds himself. After Democrats dominated West Virginia for decades, the state has gone full-blown MAGA in recent years. Former President Donald Trump won it by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020, and there are only 14 Democrats left in West Virginia’s 134-member state legislature. Manchin’s approval rating has plummeted, with 55 percent of voters giving him a thumbs down, according to a recent Morning Consult poll.

    But interviews with 18 elected officials, strategists and political observers in West Virginia and Washington, D.C. reveal that Manchin isn’t quite being left for dead yet. Even Justice’s former pollster said it would be unwise to count Manchin out.

    “There is a reason that Joe Manchin is basically the last standing Democrat in a state that has had a red tsunami since 2014,” said Mark Blankenship, a West Virginia-based GOP pollster who worked for Justice’s 2020 gubernatorial campaign. “You can’t say that it’s impossible for him to win because he’s won so much.”

    Manchin’s GOP colleagues agreed with the sentiment: “You can’t take Joe for granted. He’s a formidable politician,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who appeared as a featured speaker at Justice’s campaign kickoff last month.

    The early investment from McConnell’s allies at the group One Nation could save Republicans money next year — if it nudges Manchin toward the exit. Otherwise, the GOP will have to spend millions convincing West Virginia voters to part ways with a man who has not lost an election since the 1990s. Without Manchin on the ballot, many operatives see the state as an automatic flip, and Republicans can redirect their money toward other crucial battleground states.

    “It would be nice if we didn’t have to,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) when asked if his party would need to spend money if Manchin retires. “We’ll see how it all plays out.”

    Manchin first joined the West Virginia state legislature in 1982 at the age of 35. He served in both chambers before departing to run an unsuccessful primary campaign for governor in 1996. It was the only race he ever lost. He ended up supporting the Republican nominee over the woman who beat him for the Democratic nomination.

    Four years later he became West Virginia’s Secretary of State and won the governorship in 2004. In 2010, he made the jump to the Senate, campaigning in a special election seat left open by Democrat Robert Byrd’s death.

    Democrats’ best hope of keeping Manchin’s seat in 2024 involves him seeking reelection and a brutally messy Republican primary that leaves the eventual nominee bruised and broke.

    Justice, while wealthy and well-liked, does not have the GOP field to himself. Also in the race is Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a conservative hardliner who trounced a fellow member in a Republican primary for a House seat in 2022. He is planning on running to Justice’s right with the help of $10 million from the anti-tax Club for Growth super PAC.

    Democrats and Republicans alike said Manchin has been able to hold onto elected office in the past in part due to his skills as a retail politician, a key advantage in a state of only 1.7 million people.

    “He is the best face-to-face politician I’ve interacted with outside of Bill Clinton,” said Patrick Hickey, a political scientist who previously worked at West Virginia University. “He has that Clinton-esque ability to make everybody feel like he’s your friend and he’s listening to you and he’s concerned about you.”

    In 2012, Hickey said he invited Manchin’s GOP opponent, John Raese, to class. “Within a week,” he said, Manchin came into his class to glad-hand students.

    Manchin, a moderate, has benefited from distancing himself from national Democratic leaders for years. During his first Senate campaign, he fired at Democrats’ cap-and-trade bill in an ad. His vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 was credited with helping save him in that year’s Senate race. But Manchin’s favorability rating took a nosedive last year after he voted for — and helped write — President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. That’s left many of the few remaining Democrats in West Virginia feeling pessimistic about Manchin’s chances for holding on, regardless of his history.

    “I don’t think he can pull it out,” said Deirdre Purdy, chair of the Calhoun County Democratic Party. “My county has so few Democrats in it, I can’t even get a full committee together.”

    Manchin is now threatening to vote to repeal Biden’s signature climate legislation with Republicans, arguing that Biden has extended electric vehicle tax credits beyond the law’s specifications.

    Given the state’s deep-MAGA hue, some in the GOP think it doesn’t even matter whether Justice or Mooney wins the nomination because either will defeat Manchin. “This state’s now solidly Republican,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

    Manchin has given few clues about whether he will run for reelection except to say that he won’t make a decision until the end of the year. Amid that vacuum of information, political insiders have desperately tried to read the tea leaves.

    When a political operative who has served as an adviser to both Manchin and Justice attended Justice’s campaign launch, it set off speculation among Republicans that Manchin may not run. Larry Puccio, Manchin’s former chief-of-staff and longtime friend, would only go to the event, the thinking went, if he had gotten a signal from the senator that he’s bowing out. A GOP strategist close to Justice said Puccio will not have an official role on Justice’s Senate team, but the governor will “talk to him about the race and campaign.”

    Some Democrats cautioned against reading into it, however. According to a person close to Manchin, Puccio “will support Manchin for any office he seeks.”

    Puccio did not respond to a request for comment.

    Jonathan Kott, a former senior adviser to Manchin, said he believes Manchin is truly undecided on another Senate run. In the 2018 election, Manchin waited until January — days before the filing deadline — to tell his colleagues that he was seeking reelection.

    “This is just who he is,” he said. “He just doesn’t focus on the campaign till he has to. He’s busy being a senator for West Virginia and legislating. He’ll sit down with his family, I would guess sometime in like December, and that’s when they’ll make a decision. I’m pretty sure that’s what he did last time.”



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Biden beware: Manchin and Sinema align with Republicans in debt negotiations

    Biden beware: Manchin and Sinema align with Republicans in debt negotiations

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    Republicans say they follow Manchin and Sinema’s utterances closely and hope the duo is subtly speaking for other Democrats, too.

    “She’s trying to play a constructive role and try to get people to the table and understand that we can’t go over the brink on this,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who has spoken with Manchin and Sinema about the debt ceiling. “Manchin saying things like that is constructive and helpful. Hopefully helps his leadership realize … a straight debt increase just is a nonstarter.”

    It’s too early for Manchin and Sinema to be negotiating a deal with Republicans — next week’s meeting between Biden and congressional leaders needs to play out first. But their clear push for a bipartisan solution is notable given how strongly they’ve resisted big portions of Biden’s agenda.

    And there’s always the possibility that one of the Senate’s familiar bipartisan “gangs” swoops in to craft a debt limit remedy. If Manchin and Sinema throw their weight behind a bipartisan discussion, they have big priorities that could be in the mix, from immigration to energy permitting. They’re both up for reelection next year, though neither has committed to running again.

    In typical Manchin form, the West Virginian centrist is already chiding Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for referring to the House GOP’s debt ceiling bill and its massive government spending cuts as “dead on arrival.”

    In an interview on Tuesday, Manchin said of Schumer’s dismissal that “to say something’s dead on arrival, before we really had a chance to look at it — I think there’s a better way to approach it.”

    Manchin said he’s told McCarthy “there’s things I don’t like in there, but there’s a lot of things we can agree on.” In particular, he touted the idea of approving a bipartisan, bicameral fiscal commission that would be required to bring deficit reduction legislation to the Senate floor.

    He described himself as “fine” with the possibility that Biden and McCarthy would negotiate a debt agreement, the same position that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has taken. Manchin also pointed to the debt ceiling negotiations between Democrats and the Trump administration as precedent for this time around — even as his colleagues say there’s nothing to negotiate.

    “I don’t know why this is any different,” he said.

    Sinema warned in a statement for this story that “playing chicken with the full faith and credit of the United States is irresponsible” given the impacts a debt default could have on her constituents.

    “Both sides need to come together, put down the partisan talking points, and discuss realistic solutions to prevent default,” she said.

    For Manchin and Sinema, the debt ceiling presents perhaps their best opportunity to influence Congress and the president during a time of divided government. Each could run for reelection in 2024, and playing a role in averting a catastrophic default would be huge for their respective potential campaigns.

    Both of them resisted Democratic suggestions to raise the debt ceiling during the last Congress through a filibuster-avoiding maneuver known as budget reconciliation. That gave them extra credibility with Republicans.

    “Many others agree with them among my Democratic friends, but they’re just not saying it. They’ve got to stick with Sen. Schumer’s party line,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said of Manchin and Sinema’s “very helpful” treatment of the debt limit.

    “We’re all together on the floor, and I follow what they say publicly, and they’re both being very adult about it.”

    There’s unfinished business for Manchin in the debt talks after the Senate rejected his energy permitting reform bill, which could make a return appearance in any deal. That’s on top of the prospect that the talks could address his continued complaints about the Biden administration’s implementation of the Democratic tax, climate and health care bill he helped write last year.

    Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who appeared at an event with Manchin challenger-in-waiting Gov. Jim Justice last week, said she still appreciates Manchin’s rhetoric about debt negotiations: “I totally agree with what he says.”

    As for Sinema, who left the Democratic Party last year, the debt ceiling is just one more example of her going her own way. She and Manchin have split on tax policy in the past, but he praised her policy positions on Tuesday: “She’s really pretty sharp on the fiscal responsibilities. We’re in pretty good agreement on it.”

    At the moment, both are focused on the task at hand with no immediate timelines for announcing any 2024 reelection plans. But it’s not lost on anyone that cutting a debt deal could be crucial to their political brands.

    “They’re both on the ballot, as you know, assuming they both choose to run. So they have some extra political calculations that certainly would play to a cooperative spirit,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said.

    His hope for the coming days: “Joe and Kyrsten send some signals that ‘Hey, let’s do this reasonably.’”

    Other centrist Democrats haven’t taken the same tack as Manchin and Sinema. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), for example, is fine with negotiating on spending and deficit reduction, but only after a clean debt ceiling increase goes into law. That openness to a two-step process is “overwhelmingly” where Senate Democrats are, said progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

    Schumer on Tuesday reiterated his disinterest in giving ground, as the Senate’s two most famous centrists would prefer.

    “As Democrats expose the Default on America bill for what it is, our position remains the same: Both parties should pass a clean bill to avoid default together before we hit the critical upcoming June 1 deadline,” he said at a press conference.

    He and Biden are determined to show no daylight between them heading into the meeting between congressional leaders and the president. But once leaders are there, Manchin said he hopes Biden would deviate from his public remarks to meet McCarthy and McConnell halfway.

    “Talk about: How do we accumulate so much debt in such a short period of time in the last two decades?” Manchin said. “We cannot stay on this trajectory to this much debt.”

    Caitlin Emma contributed to this report.

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    #Biden #beware #Manchin #Sinema #align #Republicans #debt #negotiations
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Think Manchin has coal connections? Meet his rival.

    Think Manchin has coal connections? Meet his rival.

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    west virginia state of the state 12162

    His entrance catapults the race into one of the highest-profile political battles of 2024, with the possibility of showcasing both men’s personal ties to an energy industry that President Joe Biden and other world leaders have promised to largely replace with renewable power.

    Manchin, perhaps the most vulnerable Senate Democrat, confounded members of his party by stalling major legislation aimed at reducing fossil fuel use. But by ultimately voting for the Inflation Reduction Act, which pours hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy, he risks losing support among voters with ties to coal.

    Both men have earned millions from their families’ fossil fuel businesses.

    Over the years, Justice’s family coal businesses have collected millions of dollars in state and federal fines for pollution and public safety violations. The businesses have a long history of ignoring those fines or paying them after years of protracted legal efforts.

    Manchin’s political position has benefited his business interests, which include a family company that trucks discarded coal to a high-emitting power plant near his hometown. The facility is the only plant in West Virginia that still uses waste coal to generate electricity.

    Accusations around conflicts of interest have followed Justice, 72, and Manchin, 75, through much of their careers. But that has not slowed their political rise in West Virginia, said Rob Cornelius, the former chair of the Wood County Republican Executive Committee and a critic of Justice, whom he described as “Teflon as hell.”

    “We expect our leaders to be a little dirty, I guess is the nice way of putting it,” Cornelius said. “No one here cares about what I would call government and business corruption, and that’s probably an indictment of our voters.”

    A spokesperson for Justice did not respond to requests for comment.

    Manchin has said he will not make a decision about his political future until the end of the year. That could include running for reelection, launching an independent bid for president or retiring. Manchin has been increasingly critical of the Biden administration and his fellow Democrats in recent months, particularly over energy issues.

    “Senator Manchin continues to consider the best way he can serve his state and country,” Sam Runyon, a Manchin spokesperson, said in a statement. “But make no mistake, he will win whatever race he enters.”

    West Virginia remains almost entirely reliant on coal for its power, even as other states move toward cheaper renewables and natural gas. The state gets 90 percent of its power from coal, compared with about 20 percent nationally (Greenwire, Jan. 26). In recent months, Justice has fought to keep the state’s largest coal-fired power plant from closing — a move that could cost ratepayers more than $30 million in additional monthly costs.

    Justice’s financial disclosures show that his family’s sprawling business empire extends to more than a hundred businesses, including in energy, hospitality, health care, resorts and timber. Justice’s family owns dozens of coal-related businesses based in West Virginia, Virginia, Alabama and elsewhere, his financial disclosures show.

    Those companies, many of which operate mines, have faced millions of dollars in fines for air pollution and unsafe working conditions. They have missed numerous deadlines to pay those fines after being sued by the U.S. attorney’s office and the Mine Safety and Health Administration.

    Justice has also faced liabilities related to land reclamation on the surface mines owned by his companies. At one time, the Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy estimated that the companies had about $200 million in such liabilities.

    Recently, the Bluestone Coke facility in Alabama, which is owned by Justice’s family, had to pay a fine of almost $1 million for releasing an excessive amount of toxic air pollution that affected a Black neighborhood for years, a ProPublica investigation revealed. The Birmingham facility repeatedly ignored public health concerns, resulting in the largest fine being proposed in the history of the Jefferson County Board of Health.

    Justice’s family is considering a sale of Bluestone, The Wall Street Journal reported last month.

    In 2009, Justice bought the 6,500-acre Greenbrier luxury resort in White Sulphur Springs and then built a casino underneath it. The resort was home to a secret congressional bunker that has since been decommissioned. He spoke there Thursday evening as he officially announced his candidacy.

    The personal ties that Justice and Manchin have to the coal industry may raise questions in such a high-profile race, but that is “not new information for people in West Virginia,” said Conrad Lucas, a former chair of the West Virginia Republican Party.

    He said voters have looked at those entanglements and repeatedly elected both men.

    Justice, despite his wealth, has cultivated the image of someone who is approachable to the average West Virginian, Lucas said, “despite him being a figure who owns the Greenbrier.”

    “He has an ability to connect with voters that you wouldn’t think an incredibly wealthy person would, but voters have found him incredibly relatable,” Lucas said.

    Justice is one of the most popular governors in the country. A Morning Consult poll conducted in January found that Justice was the fifth-most-liked governor, with a 64 percent approval rating.

    Justice leads Manchin 52 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, according to a poll from the Senate Leadership Fund, the super political action committee aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The only other declared candidate in the race, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), trails Manchin by 15 percentage points, the poll showed.

    West Virginia is among the reddest states in the country. Former President Donald Trump, who could once again be at the top of the ticket, won the state by almost 40 percentage points in 2020. The Senate race, and especially the Republican primary, are widely expected to be the most expensive in state history. A poll released earlier this month by National Public Affairs showed Justice outpacing Mooney by 31 points.

    Mooney “looks forward to a robust debate of the issues important to all West Virginians including Justice’s record,” his campaign manager, John Findlay, said in a statement before the governor entered the race.

    If he wins, Justice would arrive in Washington not as a power broker, as Manchin has been in the closely divided Senate, but as a backbench Republican. His personal wealth and potential for raising campaign contributions could elevate his standing within the Republican Party, but he wouldn’t be the decisive vote on major legislation.

    But there are similarities between Justice and Manchin that go beyond making money on coal. Manchin’s close friend and former chief of staff, Larry Puccio, has worked for both men’s campaigns.

    At the federal level, Puccio has leveraged his friendship with Manchin to receive lucrative lobbying contracts, as POLITICO’s E&E News has reported. In Charleston, Puccio works as a lobbyist for multiple businesses owned by Justice, including the Greenbrier and Bluestone. Puccio has also worked as chair of Justice’s transition team — as he did for Manchin.

    Justice’s extensive business holdings won’t necessarily make him stand out in Congress, said Craig Holman, who lobbies on ethics and campaign finance issues for Public Citizen, the progressive consumer rights group founded by Ralph Nader.

    “Lawmakers here in Congress do have very strong conflicts of interest and business interests, and they’re not expected to recuse themselves from votes that affect those interests,” he said. “And it is a conflict of interest, an obvious one, and it’s rather prevalent throughout Congress and not really subject to regulation.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • GOP drops $1M on Manchin as Justice preps run

    GOP drops $1M on Manchin as Justice preps run

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    Manchin is bristling on a near-daily basis at Biden’s implementation of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act and keeps declining to support the president’s reelection. But Republicans are making clear that last year’s multibillion-dollar bill will be the centerpiece of their campaign to defeat him.

    Splicing in clips of Manchin close to Biden during the law’s signing ceremony, the new ad push claims that “100,000 West Virginia jobs are at risk thanks to Sen. Joe Manchin falling in line with D.C. liberals to pass the Inflation Reduction Act.” And One Nation is signaling more is to come.

    “The so-called ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will hurt Americans’ quality of life in a lot of ways, and One Nation will continue to advocate against bad policies,” said the group’s president and CEO Steven Law.

    Manchin has not yet announced his own reelection plans, saying he won’t decide on his future until the end of the year. In the meantime, he’s fighting openly with the Biden administration over its implementation of the law he helped write, dinging a missed deadline on stricter sourcing requirements for electric vehicles. On Tuesday he called new EPA emission standards “dangerous.”

    He’s also acknowledged Republicans were likely to come after him for supporting the party-line bill. Manchin cut a slimmed-down deal with Schumer last summer after rejecting a more sweeping plan known as “Build Back Better” in 2021.

    “I’m fighting the administration for trying to implement a piece of legislation we didn’t pass,” Manchin said in an interview, alleging that Biden’s team is stretching the intent of the smaller bill that passed to a more progressive extent. “The intent of the bill was for energy security. And we were not energy secure … Just implement the bill that was passed, not the bill you think you wanted.”

    Manchin has faced tough races before and should never be underestimated, even in a state Biden lost by nearly 40 points. While 2024 could be even more challenging, particularly if Justice gets in, Manchin does have a couple cards up his sleeve: He has nearly $10 million in his campaign account and the support of national Democrats if he runs.

    “West Virginians know Joe Manchin’s work has decreased the deficit and made prescription drugs more affordable. One Nation should save their cash for a bloody primary that will pit Club for Growth’s carpetbagger against Mitch McConnell’s ethically challenged pick,” said Sarah Guggenheimer, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

    Polls show Manchin with an early lead against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) in a hypothetical matchup, but with work to do against Justice. And Justice is close enough to jumping in that he’s looking at several dates for his launch, including April 27, as well as several other days.

    “I do think the governor made a decision,” the Republican strategist close to Justice said, speaking candidly on the condition of anonymity. “It’s only a matter of time.”

    However, Republicans in the state and in D.C. cautioned that Justice is a seat-of-his-pants politician, and a campaign kickoff isn’t final until the moment the governor decides. Not to mention that plenty can change in the GOP primary over the next year; the state’s attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, lost to Manchin in 2018 but decided to run for governor next year after flirting with another Senate bid.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with a bipartisan trio of senators in Ukraine that included Joe Manchin, Lisa Murkowski and Mark Kelly (along with country music star Brad Paisley). 

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with a bipartisan trio of senators in Ukraine that included Joe Manchin, Lisa Murkowski and Mark Kelly (along with country music star Brad Paisley). 

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    russia ukraine war one year anniversary 84442
    Paisley played a song outside in the rain in Kyiv, posting a brief video of the moment.

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    #Volodymyr #Zelenskyy #met #bipartisan #trio #senators #Ukraine #included #Joe #Manchin #Lisa #Murkowski #Mark #Kelly #country #music #starBrad #Paisley
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Opinion | America Doesn’t Want Joe Manchin

    Opinion | America Doesn’t Want Joe Manchin

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    There is no doubt that the former governor, hailing from a red state where Democratic presidential candidates lose by 40 points, is a different kind of Democrat, especially on energy, cultural issues such as guns, abortion and immigration, and procedural matters like the filibuster and court-packing.

    Yet, he’s still recognizably a Democrat, who tends to be there for his party — whatever drama he might create during the sausage-making — on big pieces of legislation.

    During an appearance on “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Manchin spoke openly about the possibility of a presidential run. He portrayed himself as a unifying force occupying the neglected center. “I’m fiscally responsible,” he said, “and socially compassionate” — a sentiment that owes more to false labels than no labels.

    Let’s review the past two years: Manchin voted for the $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill at the outset of the Biden administration; he voted for a $550 billion infrastructure bill; he voted for a $280 billion chips bill; and, finally, he voted for — indeed, helped craft — nearly $500 billion in yet more spending on green-energy and health care initiatives in the so-called Inflation Reduction Act that is offset by what is supposed to be roughly $800 billion in new taxes and reductions in Medicare spending.

    Add it all up, and this is not the voting record of a fiscal conservative, a fiscal moderate, or even a fiscal realist.

    It’s true that Manchin cut down Biden’s Build Back Better proposal by a couple of trillion before it morphed into the Inflation Reduction Act. But if your party wants to shoot money out of a powerful M20 Super-Bazooka (which was developed near the end of World War II), and you want to shoot money out of an earlier, less potent M1 Bazooka instead, that doesn’t make you a force for austerity.

    In point of fact, you don’t need to shoot money out of bazookas at all.

    While the Senate was evenly split, Manchin had stopping power. He could have single-handedly prevented Biden from spending an additional dollar. Instead, he went along with the big-ticket items and made it possible for Democrats to get more than they reasonably could have hoped for — and now harangues Biden to do more about the debt.

    This is an accomplice to a crime after the fact, tsk-tsking the mastermind of the heist for not being more law-abiding.

    Manchin has taken to complaining that his baby, the Inflation Reduction Act, has been distorted by the Biden administration. “When President Biden and I spoke before Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act last summer,” he wrote in The Wall Street Journal last week, “we agreed that the bill was designed to pay down our national debt and shore up America’s energy security.”

    He might have wanted to get that in writing. If the rest of your party is convinced that a major bill is climate legislation — and proudly touts it as such — while you are the only one who believes that it is really about deficit reduction and exploiting more fossil fuels, there is a good chance you are the one who is wrong.

    Say this for Biden — he may have lost a step, but he apparently can still take Manchin to the cleaners.

    The senator had a large hand in drafting the bill, and had the leverage to insist on any provision that he wanted. There is nothing he wants now that he couldn’t have insisted on or made explicit in the legislation. Manchin’s denunciations of how the bill is being implemented are really confessions of his own poor negotiating and shabby legislative draftsmanship.

    None of this is an auspicious launching pad for a national campaign. The typical fallacy of such third-party efforts is the belief that all, or a lion’s share, of self-identified independents would vote for an independent candidate. This ignores the fact that many independents lean Democrat or Republican, and vote much like actual Democrats and Republicans.

    While the distaste for another Trump and Biden race is real, most Republicans and Democrats will make peace with these candidates if they win their respective nominations. Even if there is greater openness than usual to an alternative at the outset of the race, an independent candidate will inevitably look more like a spoiler or a wasted vote the closer the election gets, eroding their support further and making the campaign look even more quixotic and forlorn.

    There’s also the matter of charisma and star power. The last independent candidate to get real traction, Ross Perot in 1992, was a one-of-a-kind American original with a kind of anti-charm and a set of distinctive issues, running in just the right populist environment. Manchin can do Sunday shows and looms large in West Virginia, but there’s nothing to suggest he has the performative ability or a unique ideology to dominate on a national stage.

    Even if he did, he’d be most likely to help elect Trump. Biden wants to win independents and disaffected Republicans, the voters Manchin would be targeting as well. If he were serious about winning, Manchin would have to argue that Biden is not the moderate he campaigns as, and thus help make Trump’s case for him.

    We live in a time of political unpredictability and disruption, just not enough for Manchin 2024 to make sense.

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    #Opinion #America #Doesnt #Joe #Manchin
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Automakers are resigned. Manchin is furious. Europe has to wait.

    Automakers are resigned. Manchin is furious. Europe has to wait.

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    congress treasury budget 84667

    At its heart, Friday’s guidance creates a way to determine which car and truck models will qualify for the $7,500-per-vehicle credit under last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, based on their compliance with a new thicket of restrictions on where their battery minerals and components come from.

    It leaves some key details yet to be filled in, however, and the Treasury Department could make more changes once a comment period closes on June 16.

    An initial list of qualifying vehicles will be available April 18, with updates posting each month.

    POLITICO took a look at how the new guidance applies — and who wins and loses now that it’s been made public.

    Automakers: Some vehicles will qualify, but many won’t

    Verdict: A GRUDGING WIN

    Given the law’s considerable constraints, Treasury’s interpretation is about as friendly as possible to automakers and anyone else interested in seeing more people driving electric vehicles. That’s because it will mean that at least some of the electric vehicles now on the market will be eligible for the federal tax credits — though many that now qualify for the tax breaks will lose them.

    Carmakers didn’t have to get even this much accommodation. The strictest interpretation of the law’s sourcing requirements could have meant that not a single vehicle qualified.

    Also, because Treasury delayed the issuance of the proposal until the last day of March, then offered another two weeks before it takes effect, automakers got more time to prepare to prepare for the new restrictions — and sell cars — than Congress had envisioned when it wrote the law.

    John Bozzella, Here’s what I can say: this latest turn will further reduce the number of eligible EVs. Fewer vehicles (and fewer customers) will qualify for the full $7,500 credit in the near term.
    In fact, this period may go down as the highwater mark for EV tax credit eligibility since the IRA passed last year.

    Consumers will have limited selection — but that will broaden

    Verdict: A PARTIAL WIN

    For now, consumers will only be able to apply the tax credit to a limited number of electric vehicle models, and that will disappoint those inclined to move to an electric vehicle sooner than later. But Treasury intends to publish a monthly list of vehicles that are eligible, a number is expected to grow steadily as manufacturers navigate the requirements.

    On climate, trading one polluting industry for another

    Verdict: MIXED

    Transportation is largest contributor to the United States’ greenhouse gas pollution, so getting drivers behind the wheel of electric cars and trucks is a major priority of the environmental movement and the Biden administration. But it comes at a cost — mining what’s necessary to make electric vehicle batteries trades one polluting industry for another.

    Climate advocates are also alarmed that the administration is rushing to negotiate trade pacts with Japan — and possibly Europe — without including standard safeguards for environmental and labor protections. Some some Democrats in charge of writing tax laws, such as Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden, share those concerns.

    Sen. Joe Manchin thinks he got rolled

    Verdict: LOSE

    The West Virginia Democrat insisted on the domestic sourcing provisions as a condition for his vote on the Inflation Reduction Act — one of the Biden administration’s biggest priorities. But he’s accused Treasury of trying to skirt the law almost since it was signed, and earlier this week groused that he thought Treasury was “going to try to screw me on this” by allowing too many countries to participate in supplying electric vehicle materials.

    His goal is to make sure U.S. energy security is under U.S. control as much as possible — or at least under the control of friendly nations, and definitely not China. And he said he wants the jobs created by the law to be created in the United States.

    Manchin is particularly incensed by the guidance’s sections allowing Treasury to determine which countries America has a free trade agreement with, “since this term is not defined in statute.” The guidance notes that this could include “newly negotiated critical minerals agreements.” of the sort that the U.S. just negotiated with Japan and is negotiating with Europe.

    In a statement, Manchin teed off on the guidance, calling it “horrific” and a “pathetic excuse to spend more tax payer dollars as quickly as possible and further cedes control to the Chinese Communist Party in the process.”

    U.S. miners get customers, but more competition from abroad

    Verdict: MIXED

    The U.S. critical mining industry is getting a huge boost from the law, which seeks to spur the creation of a domestic clean-energy supply chain that doesn’t yet exist. Miners have pushed to retain the law’s original provisions, to keep demand for their minerals high.

    But they will face a growing number of foreign competitors as the Biden administration inks trade deals with more U.S. allies.

    Also in flux is how Treasury will define “foreign entity of concern,” a term that has riled hard-rock miners worried that battery components assembled abroad will include minerals from countries like China. Treasury says it will make that decision later this year.

    Europe still awaits its seat at the table

    Verdict: WIN (EVENTUALLY)

    Earlier this week, the Biden administration announced a novel trade arrangement allowing Japan to supply mineral resources for electric vehicles under the tax credit, despite not having a broad free-trade agreement with the United States. It’s a model that the U.S. could emulate with Europe, with a deal that could be finished before the rule takes effect April 18.

    Treasury officials say that even if it takes longer than that, Europe can be written in later.

    Hannah Northey contributed to this report.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Justice for Manchin: Senate Republicans closing in on 2024 recruit

    Justice for Manchin: Senate Republicans closing in on 2024 recruit

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    He is dropping hints everywhere. He’s put his coal business up for sale to pay off debts and met with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) last week. He finished up his state’s legislative session earlier this month, pushing through a tax cut after Manchin helped direct federal funds to the state. And he’s been texting with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), according to two people familiar with Justice’s interactions.

    “The governor has a good political sense. So I am assuming that he’s going to get in,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). “It would change things. He has a huge approval rating, he just passed the biggest tax cut in state history. He’s got a lot of good things to talk about.”

    But Justice’s plans, not to mention Republicans’ confidence that he puts them in striking distance of picking up a Democrat-held seat, doesn’t faze the incumbent one “iota.” Manchin reiterated in an interview that he won’t decide whether he’ll run until the end of the year, describing himself as content to watch his rivals spar from afar — for a few months, at least.

    “God bless them, it’ll be entertaining to watch their primary. That’s the greatest thing,” Manchin said.

    The Senate GOP whiffed repeatedly during the 2022 midterms on trying to recruit popular governors like Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Doug Ducey of Arizona and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Already this year, though, former Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts has joined the Senate via appointment. Justice is different: The party’s spent months courting him, and Republicans believe if he runs they will get much closer to picking up a Democrat-held seat.

    In conversations with D.C. Republicans, Justice has discussed the pros and cons of making the jump from governor to senator, according to one of the people familiar with his interactions. Yet Justice has made no final public decision. And until he files his candidate paperwork, there’s still a chance he backs out.

    Should he jump in, he’d immediately help Republicans solidify their path to a majority which runs through Ohio, Montana and West Virginia. They need to net two seats to take back the majority, regardless of the outcome of the presidential race.

    Still, a Justice win isn’t straightforward. He’ll have to navigate Republican primary waters in his state that are already choppy thanks to Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), whom former President Donald Trump and the Club for Growth backed in a hotly contested House GOP primary last year.

    Mooney launched his campaign almost immediately after the midterms, and Justice already feuded with him last year when the Freedom Caucus member defeated former Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.). Both Manchin and Justice supported McKinley over Mooney, a former Maryland state senator.

    Not only did Justice cut a TV ad for McKinley, he openly questioned Mooney’s “ability to represent West Virginians well, after spending the majority of his time and life representing Maryland.”

    In a preview of a potential Senate primary attack line, Justice also claimed last year that he had only met with Mooney once since he became governor. Mooney shot back to POLITICO that the governor’s response was “petty anyhow, the phone works both ways” — adding that he had five pictures with Justice, each of which showed him wearing different ties.

    In an interview Thursday, with Justice’s potential launch looming, Mooney vowed that “I can beat whoever runs” but declined to lob fresh attacks at the governor: “I’ll wait for him to announce before I comment on any of that stuff.”

    Mooney, a staunch fiscal conservative, could run to Justice’s right. He has already signaled he will knock the governor for endorsing Democrats’ $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure law.

    Club for Growth President David McIntosh said his group won’t back Justice, whom he described as in “the moderate camp,” but would be open to supporting Mooney. Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with McConnell, commissioned a poll showing Justice as the only candidate who can beat Manchin.

    If he decides to run, Justice would also have to file personal financial disclosures that would invite more scrutiny of his financial holdings than he has faced in the past. Asked if he thought the primary sparring could turn personal, Mooney said pointedly: “You should ask him about that.”

    The general election could get quite messy, too, in a state where everyone in politics seems to know each other. Manchin and Justice share a political network, with lobbyist and consultant Larry Puccio serving as an advisor to both.

    “They are both my friends and wonderful people, past that I really don’t do interviews,” Puccio told POLITICO in a brief phone call. “I’m not an elected official and I prefer to keep my thoughts to myself.”

    The race could scramble the close-knit Senate as well. Manchin endorsed a pair of moderate Republicans in the past, and they are returning the favor. One of them, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), said she’s already donated money to Manchin and expected little blowback back home for it. She made the donation a couple weeks ago at a joint event with Manchin, and encouraged other attendees to do the same, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    “He’s a close friend. Should he choose to run again, I would anticipate endorsing him,” said the other, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

    Still, most Republicans suspect Manchin would likely bow out rather than face defeat by Justice. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said that “I keep hearing Manchin might not run again if he had to run against the governor.”

    “He’s a force to be reckoned with in West Virginia. It’ll be hard for any Republican or Democrat to beat” Justice, said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.).

    But Manchin isn’t conceding their point. Responding to the idea that Justice would either force him out or beat him, Manchin said: “They could be wrong on both. Who knows?”

    Justice ran as a Democrat in 2016, with Manchin’s endorsement, and his later party switch irked the Democratic governor-turned-senator. Manchin then ran for re-election in 2018, defeating Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, but flirted with running against Justice in 2020.

    With that in mind, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who chairs Democrats’ campaign arm, brushed aside any aura of invincibility around Justice: “Our incumbent is unbeatable, with a proven track record. So I’m confident.”

    “If every time a candidate like Jim Justice got in a race and we said, ‘oh my God forget about it’, we wouldn’t have 51″ seats, said Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), a campaign arm vice chair.

    The biggest potential wild card for Manchin would be running in a presidential year, requiring an extreme split-ticket path to victory in his red state. He won handily in 2012 alongside former President Barack Obama, whom he did not endorse, but plenty has changed in politics since then. Including the GOP governor looking to go to Washington.

    “When he gets in, he’ll be a formidable opponent no matter if Manchin runs or not,” Daines said.



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Manchin keeps ’em guessing, from Senate Dems to the House GOP

    Manchin keeps ’em guessing, from Senate Dems to the House GOP

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    Manchin says he’s not deciding on anything until the end of the year and is also pointedly refusing to rule out a presidential run on a third-party ticket. That gives him roughly nine more months to keep Washington guessing. In the meantime, he’ll keep exerting his political leverage, at least until he runs and Republicans start to limit his opportunities or a retirement announcement saps his Senate sway.

    And the West Virginian is well aware of that limited window to maximize his current role as the GOP’s best bipartisan dealmaking partner and the Senate Energy Committee chair. This week alone, he announced opposition to Biden’s proposed IRS commissioner, tanked the nomination of an FCC commissioner and has “serious concerns’’ about Interior nominee Laura Daniel-Davis.

    “If you can’t do the job the last two years because you’re in cycle, that tells you what’s wrong with this place. That’s why I haven’t made any commitment or a decision,” Manchin said in an interview this week.

    It seems not a day goes by without Manchin tweaking the Biden administration over something. He thrashed the president’s team Wednesday for “putting their radical climate agenda ahead of our nation’s energy security” then on Thursday said White House advisor John Podesta was “irresponsible” in comments about Chinese energy production.

    In his typical style, Manchin says none of those moves have anything to do with his reelection decision.

    “I’m just trying to do the right thing. I’m just trying to get things implemented. The country desperately needs energy security,” Manchin said. “And if you can’t implement a bill that basically is all about national security … it’s bullshit.”

    There’s also a critical new ingredient to his legislative success in the newly empowered House GOP. Manchin spent the first two years of Biden’s presidency cutting deals with more liberal Democrats, only to get kneecapped by Senate Republicans on his final push for an energy permitting deal.

    Yet for the moment, the House Republican majority is staying open to collaboration with Manchin on the topic, regardless of his political future — as long as any cross-Capitol compromise delivers a win for them, too.

    “There’s a lot of motivation all around for us to do something on permitting reform,” said Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who is so devoted to an energy deal that he turned down a spot on a more sought-after House committee to work on it.

    Senate Democrats are similarly playing it cool when it comes to the parlor game of what Manchin might be thinking about 2024. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who chairs the party’s campaign arm, said he’d had conversations with Manchin about running again but is taking a light touch.

    “He has time. It’s not like we have a lot of Democrats wanting to run in West Virginia. And if he decides to run, I am confident he will win,” Peters said.

    Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) is already running for the seat, but Republicans are also looking to land West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice in their primary. They see the Democrat-turned-Republican as the strongest possible recruit to force Manchin into retirement.

    “It would certainly make me think twice, if I was in his shoes,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

    Amid the political intrigue, House Republicans are downright buoyant about their chances of reaching a Manchin-blessed deal on energy permitting that would help speed the way for construction of major fossil-fuel and other projects. It helps that the genial West Virginian has personally spoken with nearly every major House player on the issue, from Speaker Kevin McCarthy to GOP panel chairs to the Democrats who are quietly supportive of his push.

    Several House Republicans who’ve spoken with Manchin said they’ve given little thought to what he — the pivotal vote on some of Biden’s biggest wins — will choose to do next year. The same goes for whether a bipartisan permitting agreement could help him achieve it.

    Natural Resources Committee Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) spoke to Manchin this week, and Westerman said each is committed to getting a result. Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) brushed aside potential GOP concerns that a deal could help lift Manchin to reelection: “My goal is to get a substantial permitting bill on the president’s desk.”

    Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), whose GOP colleague Mooney is running for that Senate seat next year, said of Manchin: “I would work with anyone on permitting.”

    Senate Republicans are more committed to defeating Manchin because West Virginia could easily determine who holds the Senate majority next year. They blocked attempts at attaching permitting legislation to year-end spending deals last year, in part out of retribution for Manchin’s dealmaking with Biden on Democrats’ massive party-line tax, health care and climate bill.

    Now they’re questioning whether the rest of Manchin’s party would really follow him on a sweeping energy permitting deal with the House GOP.

    “I do believe I can make a deal with Manchin. I’m not sure how many other Democrats would come on board,” said Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, his Republican counterpart on the Energy Committee.

    Manchin said Democrats would “be hypocritical” to shun work on an energy bill just because it’s led by the GOP House. He called his work last year a “roadmap” for Republicans to follow; 40 Senate Democratic caucus members supported his bill last year.

    And he’s putting out feelers of his own. As Republicans steer their party-line energy package to the floor this month, Manchin has asked some of his House Democratic colleagues about the GOP’s plans.

    “He said, ‘Let me know what the Republicans are looking at, because I want to do something,’” said Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar, another conservative Democrat who’s been talking to the GOP on energy.

    Asked how he’s reading the tea leaves on Manchin’s fate in 2024, Cuellar replied: “He wants to legislate.”

    Still, Manchin isn’t totally tuned out of politics. He inquired about where his fellow red-state Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana stood in the lead-up to announcing a reelection bid.

    But now, as Manchin wreaks havoc on the Biden administration, Tester has no plans to push Manchin on 2024.

    “Joe being Joe, it’s just what Joe does,” Tester said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Manchin to oppose Biden’s nominee to head IRS

    Manchin to oppose Biden’s nominee to head IRS

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    Manchin’s move also comes as he faces the prospect of a tough reelection race next year in his Republican-leaning state. He has not said whether he’ll run for another term.

    Manchin’s opposition is unlikely endanger Werfel’s nomination, which appears assured. Werfel won bipartisan support on the chamber’s Finance Committee, with three Republicans there backing him. The Senate is expected to vote on Werfel’s confirmation Wednesday evening.

    “At every turn, this administration has ignored congressional intent when implementing the Inflation Reduction Act,” Manchin said, referring to the law that includes the tax incentives. “First and foremost, the IRA is an energy security bill with clear and direct guidelines to ensure we are able to onshore our supply and manufacturing chains.”

    “But instead of adhering to Congressional intent and prioritizing our nation’s energy and national security, the Treasury Department has pandered to automakers and progressive extreme groups and continued to sacrifice the national security of the United States.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )