New Delhi: With just few days left for the crucial Assembly polls in Karnataka, a new opinion poll predicted that the Congress may emerge as the single largest party in the southern state but may fall eight seats short of a clear majority.
According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, telecast on the news channel on Sunday, the Congress may win 105 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, while the ruling BJP may win 85 seats, followed by Janata Dal-Secular which may win 32 seats.
The opinion poll predicted that ‘others’ may win two seats.
In the 2018 elections, the BJP had won 104, the Congress 80, the JD-S 37, and ‘Others’ had won three seats.
As per the vote share projections, Congress may get 40.32 per cent, the BJP may get 35.5 per cent, the JD-S 17.81 per cent, and ‘others’ may get 6.37 per cent.
In the 2018 elections, the Congress had got 38.04 per cent, the BJP had got 36.22 per cent, the JD-S 18.36 per cent and ‘Others’ had got 7.38 per cent votes.
The opinion poll also predicted that caste and community wise projections show, the Congress may get 75.3 per cent of Kuruba votes, 15.11 per cent Lingayat votes, 17.57 per cent Vokkaliga votes, 40.56 per cent of SC votes, 34.58 per cent of OBC votes, 42.35 per cent of ST votes, and a whopping 78 per cent of Muslim votes.
On the other hand, the BJP may get 15.14 per cent Kuruba votes, a whopping 75.8 per cent Lingayat votes, 17.39 per cent Vokkaliga votes, 39.6 per cent SC votes, 51.7 per cent OBC votes, 32.18 per cent ST votes and only 2.07 per cent Muslim votes.
The projection show the JD-S may get 56 per cent Vokkaliga votes.
The India TV-CNX poll projections region-wise show also predicted that the BJP and the Congress may share 15 seats each in Greater Bengaluru area (32 seats total), while the JD-S) may get two.
In Central Karnataka’s 21 seats, the BJP may win 13 and Congress eight seats.
The Congress may sweep the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, winning 32 of the 40 seats, while the BJP may win six and the JD-S two.
In Old Mysore’s 62 seats, the Congress may win 26 seats, the JD-S may win 28, and the BJP only seven seats. ‘Others’ may win the remaining one seat.
In coastal Karnataka having 19 seats, the BJP may win 15 and the Congress 4.
In the Bombay Karnataka region having 50 seats, the BJP may win 29, the Congress may win 20 and ‘Others’ may win one seat.A
The opinion poll survey findings also showed that Congress leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah still remains the first choice for the top post, leading the list with 32.2 per cent votes, while 26.83 per cent favouring incumbent Basavaraj Bommai as Chief Minister.
Meanwhile, 16.37 per cent opted for JD-S leader and former CM H.D. Kumaraswamy, while 10.97 per cent favoured BJP leader and former CM B.S. Yeddyurappa and only seven per cent preferred Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar for the Chief Ministerial post.
The opinion poll survey was carried out by CNX among 11,200 respondents (5,620 males and 5,580 females) in 112 out of a total of 224 seats. The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view demographic, professional and migration dimensions.
Polling for the Karnataka Assembly is scheduled on May 10 and counting of votes will take place on May 13.
The measure, which passed the House by a vote of 217-215, is widely perceived as having no chance of passing the Senate, where Democrats have a slim majority.
Emmer didn’t explain why he thought Senate Democrats other than Manchin might come to embrace the legislation.
If no agreement is reached, the nation would bump up against its debt ceiling, which is now projected to happen in July, and default on its debts. President Joe Biden has said he is willing to negotiate over the nation’s budget, but wants the debt limit raised independently of those talks, without any conditions, as occurred during the Trump administration. Most Capitol Hill Democrats have said the same thing.
Emmer said no negotiations are needed: The Senate could simply approve the House GOP bill and Biden could sign it.
“Our recommendation is: We passed it through the House; take it up in the Senate and pass it,” Emmer said.
As he tried to redirect the narrative on the legislation, Emmer also rejected the idea that the bill was built on spending cuts, referring instead to “spending reforms.”
“I take a little issue, Dana, with the cuts language that the media likes to use all the time,” the Minnesota Republican told host Dana Bash. “This is a transformational bill. It would limit spending.”
Speaking later on the same CNN program, former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said he didn’t see much hope that the debt crisis would be resolved quickly or easily.
“I’m really concerned about the debt limit when we approach it,” Kinzinger said.
[ad_2]
#House #majority #whip #rejects #idea #GOP #debt #bill #doomed
( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
Washington: The 2024 Presidential race to the White House appears to be clearly a 2020 rematch between the GOP favourite Donald Trump and US President Joe Biden as current trends indicate that 70 percent of Republicans back Trump despite his indictment and criminal investigations and multiple probes of tax frauds, incitement to violence and spiriting away of top secret documents.
Nearly 70 percent of GOP voters stand behind Trump amid indictment and investigations, says an NBC poll but the majority of Americans are highly displeased with the Trump versus Biden rematch in 2024 as the current scenario emerges.
Almost two-thirds of Republican primary voters say they will back former President Donald Trump and show no concern about his eligibility, electability, despite his recent criminal arrest in a lower Manhattan court in New York for hush money paid to an adult star during his 2016 poll campaign, and other legal investigations into his past conduct, the NBC poll was reported in leading media outlets in the country.
Trump’s double-digit lead over his nearest potential GOP rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — makes the former president the clear front-runner in the primaries as of now in the Republican presidential nomination.
Paradoxically, the Republican Party’s continued enthusiasm for Trump contrasts sharply with a nation torn apart on critical issues such as abortion rights, gun laws, and high health care and higher education’s costs clearly reflecting their displeasure towards the 2024 race and how it is shaping up, while Biden is trying to fix them.
Political strategists and multiple polls by agencies suggest that a huge majority of Americans do not want Trump or President Joe Biden to run for president in 2024, resulting in what they perceive as a potentially divisive and uninspiring general-election rematch between the two heavy weights — one a rich billionaire with extreme right wing views promoting hard core capitalism, and the other a seasoned politician statesman coming off as a compassionate human wanting to do good for the urban middle class and the poor.
Biden’s opponents cite his age (80) as the main reason for their opposition to him to run. Trump, however, is 76 years old.
Both appear too old for the job people feel, which is, however, rejected by senior Congressmen as older senators and Congressmen have contributed a lot to the country.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research, which conducted this poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies said: “Sequels are frequently hits at the box office, but apparently not at the ballot box.”
McInturff, the GOP pollster, said: “It’s clear that people do not want a Biden-Trump rematch.”
The NBC News poll — conducted April 14-18 — came after Trump’s arraignment in New York City over charges that he falsified business records to conceal damaging information in a hush-money case.
It also followed grand juries in Atlanta and Washington, D.C., examining the former president’s reported interference in Georgia’s 2020 election results, his role in the January 6 attack on the Capitol and his inept handling of classified documents found at his Mar-a-Lago home seized by the FBI claimed to be CIA, FBI and National Security documents which ought to have been handed over to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA).
Such is the popularity of the New York tabloid headliner, Donald Trump, who has occupied the headlines of Manhattans papers despite being out of politics for 30 years, that 46 percent of Republican primary voters pick him as their first choice, while 31 percent select DeSantis as the 2024 candidate they favor.
Mike Pence is pretty much a low choice at 6 percent, and by former South Carolina Governor and US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott (who is exploring a 2024 bid), and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who are all tied at 3 percent.
Businessman of Indian origin Vivek Ramaswamy has 2 percent.
Meanwhile, DeSantis is the second choice of 33 percent of GOP primary voters, Trump is the second pick of 20 percent, and Haley is the second choice of 14 percent.
What is striking is that nearly 70 percent of Republican primary voters stated that they back Trump despite the various criminal investigations he is facing.
Sixty-eight percent of GOP primary voters opine that investigations into Trump are politically motivated and are designed to stop him from being president again, and that they must support him now to stop his opponents from winning, reports said.
Contrast this with 26 percent who say it is important to nominate a candidate other than Trump who would not be distracted and who can focus only on beating Biden in the general election.
Yet among all voters — not just Republicans — 52 percent believe that Trump is being held to the same standard as anyone else accused of doing what he did as he faces charges in New York. Another 43 percent disagree and say he is being unfairly targeted, the poll said.
As for Trump, 60 percent of Americans — including a third of Republicans — think the former president should not run in 2024. Forty-one percent say they would vote for Biden in the general election. The NBC News survey finds a combined 41 percent of registered voters saying they would definitely or probably vote for Biden in the general election, versus 47 percent who say they would vote for the eventual Republican nominee.
Biden said he was not bothered by the poll numbers as he stood exactly where his predecessors stood at 42 to 46 percent rating and went onto win the presidency.
New Delhi: An exclusive opinion poll conducted by ABP-CVoter in Karnataka in late March reveals that the Congress will probably win a majority of seats in the 224-seat Karnataka Assembly, which will go to the polls on May 10.
According to an analysis of the survey data, the vote share of the Congress could rise from 38 per cent in 2018 to 40.1 per cent this time. Compared to 80 seats in 2018, the ABP-CVoter survey projects the Congress to win between 115 and 127 seats.
The survey also reveals that the party is leading over rivals BJP and JD(S) in all the regions of Karnataka. Even in the old Mysore region, which has been a stronghold of the JD(S), the Congress is projected to edge ahead of its rival while the BJP is projected to perform very poorly in this region.
Using scientific random sampling techniques, the survey interacted with around 25,000 respondents across all demographics, age groups and identities.
According to the survey, the BJP will probably lose the state by some distance. The vote share of the party could come down from 36 per cent in 2018 to 34.7 per cent this time. The drop in vote share is small, but the projected loss of seats is far higher.
From 104 seats in 2018, the party is projected to win between 68 and 80 seats, far behind the Congress. Contrary to what some political analysts say, the JD(S) will not be decimated or wiped out, as per the survey. The vote share of the party remains virtually the same at 18 per cent while the number of seats won drops from 37 in 2018 to between 23 and 35 seats this time.
If the initial ABP-CVoter poll projections hold true, the Congress could be in a position to form the government on its own in Karnataka like it had done in 2013.
Party operatives believe a favorable ruling in North Carolina could clear the way for a new configuration that nets Republicans four more additional seats. In Ohio, it could help the GOP win between one and three more districts. And nationwide, a dozen other states have active litigation that could shift their balance of power too.
“The cumulative effect of all these fights is significant, and I think could be the determining factor for control of the House following the 2024 elections,” said Marina Jenkins, who was recently named the executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, the party’s mapmaking power center.
The case in North Carolina is an especially unusual one. The state’s Supreme Court invalidated a map drawn by the GOP-controlled state legislature after the 2020 census that would have given Republicans control of as many as 11 of the 14 districts. Instead, the court set into place for the midterms a new map that resulted in the election of an equal number of Democrats and Republicans.
But the justices themselves were also on the ballot.
Republican candidates won both of the state Supreme Court seats up in the midterms, flipping the balance of the court from a 4-3 liberal majority to a 5-2 conservative one. In a rare move, the new conservative majority agreed to rehear the already decided case.
A new ruling in North Carolina could give Republican lawmakers a much freer hand in the state, granting them an opportunity to draw maps similar to their initial proposal. State House Speaker Tim Moore, a Republican, said in February he didn’t expect lawmakers to redraw the lines until summer.
The North Carolina delegation could be scrambled dramatically
A best-case scenario for North Carolina Republicans could shift the delegation from an even split to 11 Republicans and 3 Democrats, though mapmakers may not be that aggressive. Perhaps most at risk is Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning, whose Greensboro-based district was eviscerated in the initial map that GOP legislators crafted. Former GOP Rep. Mark Walker, who represented the seat before it was redrawn to favor Democrats, is rumored to be eyeing a comeback bid, although he has publicly acknowledged he is also considering a gubernatorial run.
Manning said she’s trying to stay hopeful that the new state Supreme Court doesn’t reverse its prior ruling but she knows it could doom her nonetheless.
“Maybe it’s unrealistic to expect that they’re going to put partisanship aside and do what’s right for the state,” she said.
Also on the chopping block: Democratic freshmen Reps. Wiley Nickel, who holds a newly created seat in the south Raleigh suburbs, and Jeff Jackson, who nabbed a safe blue seat in the Charlotte area. Jackson’s seat is likely to shift west in a redrawn map toward Cleveland County. That’s the home base of the state’s speaker, who has long eyed a perch in Congress and would have great influence over any new map.
A redraw could also endanger another freshman, Rep. Don Davis, a moderate Air Force veteran who took over retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s rural northeastern district in 2022.
“Republican judges are gonna call balls and strikes,” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“I think the current map is a partisan gerrymander and that we need fair and legal maps,” he added. “And if you have fair and legal maps, I think you’ll have more Republican representatives.”
President Joe Biden lost North Carolina to former President Donald Trump by less than 2 points.
Ohio, similarly, saw a back-and-forth battle over its congressional lines. The state Supreme Court twice struck down maps that favored Republicans, though the second ruling came too late to get a new map in place for the midterms.
For now, any future legal challenges would ultimately land in front of a newly made up Ohio state Supreme Court.
Then-state Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, a Republican, sided with three Democratic justices to strike down the congressional maps. (The court also ruled five times that legislative maps violated the state constitution.) But O’Connor did not run for reelection. And while the partisan balance of the court did not shift, the new conservative majority is not expected to rule the same way.
“The liberal majorities on the Ohio and North Carolina supreme courts overreached,” said Adam Kincaid, the leader of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, “and the voters responded by electing new conservative majorities.”
In Ohio, three Democrats could feel a squeeze under new lines. Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur‘s Toledo-based district already favors Republicans, but could become even redder under a new map. In 2022 she faced flawed opponent, JR Majewski, who misrepresented his military service, leaving Republicans eager to block him this time around. (State Rep. Derek Merrin, who narrowly lost a bid to be speaker of the Ohio House, lives in her district.) In Akron, freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes, a Democrat, is also a clear redistricting target.
A big question is how aggressively Republicans decide to target the Cincinnati-based first district, which elected a Democrat in 2022 for the first time since 2008. Redistricting reform laws in the state prohibit mapmakers from splitting the city between two districts.
The U.S. Supreme Court is watching
Looming over both states is the U.S. Supreme Court.
The high court has already heard arguments surrounding North Carolina’s congressional maps in a case called Moore v. Harper in December, before the state Supreme Court court granted a rehearing.
In that court case, Republican lawmakers challenged the ability of the state court to question their maps, advancing a once-fringe legal theory known as the “Independent State Legislature” doctrine. That theory argues that state courts have little — to no — ability to police legislatures on laws passed around federal elections, including redistricting, under the U.S. Constitution. And while the justices seemed chilly to North Carolina’s arguments in December, at least four of the court’s conservative justices had signaled a friendliness to the theory in the past.
But Tuesday’s rehearing of the case in state court raises the question of what the nation’s highest court will do. Earlier this month, the U.S. Supreme Court directed parties in the federal case to submit briefs on how the rehearing and “any subsequent state court proceedings” would affect the court’s jurisdiction — suggesting that the justices could consider dismissing the case as improvidently granted, which is the court functionally saying it should not have heard the case.
Rick Hasen, a well-known election law professor at UCLA Law, said he was “uncertain” if the high court would do that, given that the underlying issue of the independent state legislature theory is something “I think almost everybody recognizes the court has to resolve before the 2024 elections.”
But should the high court actually do so, another case is waiting in the wings — from Ohio. Lawmakers from that state have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to toss their own state Supreme Court’s rulings out as well, while also advocating for the Independent State Legislature theory. The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet acted on that petition.
If the court does punt on the North Carolina case, it could continue the sense of unevenness in redistricting, Hasen notes, with some state courts wading in on gerrymandering while others don’t. Some Democratic-drawn maps were struck down by their state courts last cycle as illegal partisan gerrymanders.
Hasen said that if the case gets dismissed as improvidently granted, “then that would — for the short term — allow North Carolina to engage in a partisan gerrymander, but would not free New York or Maryland.”
[ad_2]
#House #Republicans #expand #majority #win #court #cases
( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
New Delhi: The Election Commission has settled internal disputes in several political parties with the test of majority in their legislative and organisational wings.
After it recognised the group led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde as the real Shiv Sena, the commission is now expected to deliver its final order on the internal dispute in the Lok Janshakti Party.
The LJP split in 2021, months after the demise of its founder Ram Vilas Paswan. Its two factions are now led by the founder’s son Chirag Paswan and brother Pashupati Kumar Paras.
In an interim order on October 2, 2021, the EC had barred the two factions from using the Lok Janshakti Party name or its symbol “bungalow” till the dispute was settled by it.
The interim order of the poll watchdog remains in force.
According to EC sources, the two factions have been seeking more time before the physical hearing in the dispute commences in the court of the Commission.
On Friday, the Election Commission allotted the name Shiv Sena and its poll symbol “bow and arrow” to the group led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, in a big blow to Uddhav Thackeray.
Article 324 of the Constitution and the Symbols Order of 1968 empower the Election Commission to adjudicate internal party feuds.
While settling such disputes, the EC functions as a quasi-judicial body and the aggrieved parties are free to approach the high court or the Supreme Court challenging its order.
Since 1969, when the Congress witnessed its first split, the EC has applied the test of majority in the legislative and organisational wings of parties to settle various disputes.
The EC’s orders have been upheld by courts when challenged.
In early 2017, the dispute between Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav reached the EC.
In its order, the EC handed over the name Samajwadi Party and its election symbol “cycle” to Akhilesh Yadav.
The poll panel had noted that Akhilesh Yadav enjoyed the support of the legislative wing and the organisational side of the party.
Following the demise of former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa in 2016, her AIADMK saw a dispute between O Panneerselvam and Sasikala-E K Palaniswami factions.
Next year the two factions had staked claim over the party and its “two leaves” symbol. Later, Panneerselvam and Palaniswami joined hands and removed Sasikala and her supporters from the party.
Later, the EC allotted the “two leaves” symbol to the Panneerselvam-Palaniswami factions noting that they enjoyed the support of the legislative as well as organisational wings of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
“We’re never going to not fund defense. But at the same time we — every single year, we look at how we make it better,” Rounds said. “And I think it’s about time we start talking about Social Security and making it better.”
In his State of the Union speech last week, President Joe Biden highlighted Scott’s (R-Fla.) “Rescue America” agenda released during the 2022 campaign, which would sunset all federal programs including Social Security and Medicare. Those programs don’t currently require ongoing congressional approval, so the plan puts benefits in jeopardy, Biden asserted.
Some Republicans — a handful of whom heckled the president for the statement in his address Tuesday — have characterized the threat as dishonest. The plan’s text online states: “All federal legislation sunsets in 5 years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again.”
“We should be saying, let’s plan now, so that Social Security has a long run ahead of it, more than 75 years. And why don’t we start talking about the long-term plans, instead of trying to scare one another?” Rounds said Sunday.
He said he did see ways to make Social Security and Medicare better.
Possible reforms to Social Security could include “moving up by a couple of months” the time when full benefits start, or changing the amount of income subject to Social Security-related taxes, Rounds said.
“Simply looking away from it and pretending like there’s no problems with Social Security is not an appropriate or responsible thing to do,” Rounds said. He added: “Republicans want to see Social Security be successful and be improved.”
[ad_2]
#GOP #senator #Vast #majority #direction #Rick #Scott #Social #Security
( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
New Delhi: Congress leader P. Chidambaram on Wednesday accused the government for ignoring the common man behind, saying the absence of key concerns in Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget speech showed how far this government is removed from the people and their concerns about life, livelihood and the growing inequality between the rich and the poor.
He termed it a callous Budget that has “betrayed” the hopes of the vast majority of the people.
Addressing a press conference, Chidambaram said: “FM has not mentioned the words unemployment, poverty, inequality, or equity anywhere in her speech. Mercifully, she has mentioned the word poor twice in her speech. I am sure the people of India will take note of who are in the concerns of the government and who are not.”
He said that last year, the government estimated the GDP for 2021-22 at Rs 232,14,703 and, assuming a nominal growth rate of 11.1 per cent, projected the GDP for 2022-23 at Rs 258,00,000 crore. The GDP for 2021-22 has been since revised upward to Rs 236,64,637 crore.
In today’s Budget papers, the GDP for 2022-23 has been estimated at Rs 273,07,751 crore which yields a growth rate of 15.4 percent, much above the earlier estimate, he added.
Chidambaram also said that no taxes have been reduced except for the small number, who have opted for the new tax regime, while no indirect taxes have been reduced.
“There is no cut in the cruel and irrational GST rates. There is no reduction in the prices of petrol, diesel, cement, fertilisers and no cut in the numerous surcharges and cesses which are, any way, not shared with the state governments.
“Who has benefited by this Budget? Certainly, not the poor. Not the youth looking desperately for jobs.A Not those who have been laid off. Not the bulk of the taxpayers. Not the homemaker. Not the thinking Indians who are shocked by the growing inequality, the rise of the number of billionaires and the wealth being accumulated in the hands of the 1 per cent of the population. Certainly, not you,” Chidambaram said.
He also accused the government of being determined to push the fortunes of GIFT city, Ahmedabad,A at the cost of other commercial and financial centres. The government is also determined to push the ‘new’ tax regime for which there are few takers for a variety of reasons.
“Besides, making the new tax regime the default option is grossly unfair and will rob the ordinary tax payer of the meagre social security that he may get under the old tax regime,” he added.
