Tag: india pakistan

The US Foresees Looming Conflict Between Three Nuclear Armed Neighbours

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by Raashid Andrabi
SRINAGAR: The American intelligence community has raised concerns about the rising tensions between India and its neighbouring countries, Pakistan and China, and the possibility of conflict between them.
The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi in a Bilateral Meeting with the President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, at the White House, in Washington DC, USA on September 24, 2021.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence submitted its annual threat assessment report to the US Congress during a Congressional hearing last Wednesday, warning of the elevated risk of armed confrontation between the nuclear-armed powers.
The report highlighted the expanded military postures of both India and China along the “disputed border”, which could escalate into a direct threat to US persons and interests, calling for US intervention. Persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly, as demonstrated by previous standoffs, the report said.
Even though India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, their relations remain strained due to the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, which was the most serious in decades. The report stated that this clash has contributed to the strained Sino-Indian relationship and elevated the risk of conflict.
The crises between India and Pakistan are also of particular concern due to the risk of an escalator cycle between the two nuclear-armed states. The report noted that Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, while India is more likely under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to respond with military force to “perceived or real Pakistani provocations”. Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with potential flashpoints being violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India.
Foreign ministers of India and China, S Jaishankar and Wang Yi
The report cautioned that the possibility of conflict between India and China or India and Pakistan could have significant implications for the US, as it could impact regional stability and disrupt global supply chains. The US has been closely monitoring the situation and has called for a peaceful resolution of the border disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.
Responding to a query by The Indian Express, the spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, stated that the US-Pakistan counter-terrorism dialogue provides an opening for the two nations to work together to address terrorist threats and counter violent extremism in the region, which has the potential to impact global stability. The spokesperson added that both nations share a mutual interest in maintaining regional security and stability, and the dialogue is a demonstration of their commitment to a strong and resilient security partnership.

Pertinent to mention, the Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor, Manoj Sinha, recently affirmed that Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) is an integral part of India and the commitment made in the Parliament will soon be fulfilled. Sinha said this at a function where he inaugurated a special governance camp for displaced persons of PoJK at Bhour Camp, stating that the development of new Jammu and Kashmir would be incomplete without complete integration of PoJK displaced persons into the mainstream.
The increasing tension between India, Pakistan, and China has caught the attention of not only the US but also other nations around the world. The potential of conflict between these nuclear-armed countries could have dire consequences not just for the region but also for the global community.
The United Kingdom, for instance, has said it is closely monitoring the situation and expressed its concerns regarding the potential conflict. The UK’s High Commissioner to India, Alex Ellis, recently stated that the UK is watching developments in the region with concern and hopes for a peaceful resolution of the disputes. He added that the UK recognizes India’s legitimate interests in the region but also encourages all parties to engage in dialogue and resolve issues peacefully.
The rising tensions between India and Pakistan have also led to the re-ignition of debates surrounding Kashmir.
Besides, the ongoing border tensions between India and China in Ladakh have also created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the region. China has been aggressively pursuing its territorial claims in the South China Sea and other areas, which has led to tensions with several countries in the region, including India. The US has also expressed concerns about China’s growing military influence in the region and has been actively seeking to counter its assertiveness.
Chinese premier handing over a handmade portrait to host Prime Minister Narenndra Modi in 2019 during his India visit.USA
The US has been working to strengthen its partnerships with countries in the region, including India, to promote regional stability and counter China’s aggressive actions. In 2020, the US and India signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which aims to enhance military cooperation and interoperability between the two countries. The US has also been providing military and intelligence support to India to counter China’s growing influence.
Despite the efforts of the US and other countries to promote peace and stability in the region, the potential for conflict remains a concern. The situation is further complicated by the fact that all three countries possess nuclear weapons, which raises the stakes and makes any conflict even more dangerous.

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#Foresees #Looming #Conflict #Nuclear #Armed #Neighbours
( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

March 15, 2023
Kashmir Borders Peaceful As India Pakistan Renewed Ceasefire Enters Third Year

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SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir’s borderland continues to be peaceful and tension free as the ceasefire between the rival armies entered the third year. There is no shelling from either side and life is near normal. Unlike past, people straddling the Line of Control are throwing big feasts on marriages, which are visible and noisy.
A sweets exchange between the two army officers from India and Pakistan on the bridge over Kishanganga in Teetwal. The sweets were exchanged on the the occasion of Eid on July 21, 2021.
The ceasefire is holding despite Islamabad and Delhi not seeing eye to eye and the diplomatic relationship continues to remain at the lowest ebb, ever. The two countries, however, continue to hit at each other in international forums, mostly on and around Kashmir. The security grid continues to maintain a strong counter-infiltration mechanism in place.
In the last two years, there were only three instances of breach of ceasefire and the officials insist they were of minor nature.
While the infiltration is by and large very difficult, the security grid is facing two different challenges. One is the use of drones in supplying arms and ammunition and another is the consistent supply of drugs. While the patches of the International Border falling in the Kathua and Jammu sector is usually in news for drone infiltrations, it is the Karnah (Tangdhar) sector of the LoC that is usually been as major source of drugs entry into Kashmir.
With the guns silent along the Line of Control (LoC), the residents who were earlier demanding bunkers and shelters to save from raining shells are now seeking better road and other basic infrastructure.
“The road stretches at Dardkote in Uri are dotted with potholes which speaks volumes about the tall claims of the government of improving road connectivity,” Faisal Khan, a Sarpanch in Uri, were quoted saying by a local news gatherer, KNO. “The road is dotted with huge potholes and has not been repaired for the last several years and the authorities concerned are least bothered about the sufferings of people. The road acts as an important link which connects several areas and thousands of commuters, transporters pass through potholes every day.”
The residents expressed concern over the condition of government schools. “Four classes are functioning in a single room at Dardkote,” they said, adding that similar conditions are in maximum government-based schools”.
Authorities, however, are not taking the bunker construction far granted. By the end of fiscal 2022-23, almost all the bunkers are expected to be ready. MHA is funding the construction of 14460 bunkers which includes 13029 Individual and 1431 community bunkers.

The bunker construction was not impacted by the February 25, 2021 ceasefire when the Director Generals of Military Operations of India and Pakistan announced the ceasefire after discussing it on hotline. The ceasefire was outcome of back-channel diplomacy between the two countries and took many months to happen. AK Doval, India’s National Security Adviser and Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed are reported to have held a secret meeting in the United Arab Emirates in 2020, which led to the February 25 joint statement from the rival armies agreeing to strict adherence to the 2003 ceasefire understanding. This actually was revival and renewal of the ceasefire that came into force on November 26, 2003.
Both sides maintained a ceasefire for the first three years. However, in 2006, the breaches started and continued expanded with the hot talks in Delhi and Islamabad.
In 2017, 12 civilians and 19 security personnel were killed in border shelling incidents. 2018 saw 2140 instances of ceasefire violations, which peaked to 3479 in 2019. In 2020, 46 people lost their lives in 5133 incidents of ceasefire violations.
On February 3, 2021, MHA told the parliament that in three years – 2018, 2019 and 2020, 72 security personnel and 70 civilians were killed in 10,752 cases of ceasefire violations in Jammu and Kashmir on LoC and IB. In these incidents, 364 security personnel and 341 civilians survived with injuries.

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#Kashmir #Borders #Peaceful #India #Pakistan #Renewed #Ceasefire #Enters #Year
( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

February 26, 2023
Nuclear Conflict?

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Mike Pompeo, former US Secretary of State has claimed that India and Pakistan were on the brink of a nuclear war in wake of the surgical strikes in 2018, an issue that the US settled in a night that he will never forget
US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania on Monday tried their hands at spinning the ‘charkha’ (spinning wheel) at the Sabarmati Ashram Ahmedabad Gujarat. Pic: ANI
The Balakot surgical strike on February 27, 2018, had triggered a serious diplomatic crisis and was heading towards a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. This is precisely what Donald Trump’s Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo has claimed in his memoir Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love.
“I do not think the world properly knows just how close the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spilling over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019. The truth is, I don’t know precisely the answer either; I just know it was too close,” Pompeo wrote.
Then in Hanoi, Vietnam, for negotiations between North Korean leader and Trump, the Indo-Pak tensions flared after a militant blew up an explosive-laded vehicle hitting a CRPF convey killing more than forty paramilitary personnel on February 14. In retaliation, Indian Air Force flew bombers during the night of February 27 and 28, hitting Balakot, a key Jaish formation. A day later, there was a dogfight between the rival fighters as a result of which India lost a fighter jet and its pilot was caught (later returned). Pakistan Air Force also bombed various spots inside Jammu and Kashmir.
Talking about the call that he received from his counterpart, then Sushma Swaraj, Pompeo wrote that he was informed that “Pakistanis had begun to prepare their nuclear weapons” and India was also “contemplating its own escalation”.
“I asked him to do nothing and give us a minute to sort things out. I began to work with Ambassador Bolton, who was with me in the tiny secure communications facility in our hotel,” Pompeo wrote. “I reached the actual leader of Pakistan, General Bajwa, with whom I had engaged many times. I told him what the Indians had told me. He said it wasn’t true. As one might expect, he believed the Indians were preparing their nuclear weapons for deployment. It took us a few hours—and remarkably good work by our teams on the ground in New Delhi and Islamabad—to convince each side that the other was not preparing for nuclear war. No other nation could have done what we did that night to avoid a horrible outcome.”
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Love for J
The Ministry of External Affairs Ministry in Delhi has avoided reacting to the revelation. At the same time, Pompeo has asserted that he actually worked with NSA Ajit Doval and the then foreign secretary, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who later in May 2019, became the Foreign Minister of India.

In his book, Pompeo has showered praises on Jaishankar’s capacity and knowledge – a man speaking seven languages, English “somewhat better than mine”, professional, rational, and a “fierce defender of his boss and his country”. However, Pompeo has termed Swaraj, a “goofball and a heartland political hack”. Jaishanker has strongly reacted to this and termed it “disrespectful” to his predecessor.
India versus Pakistan
While Pompeo’s book is an idea about Trump’s world order, it offers many details about the Indian subcontinent, especially India and Pakistan.
Indian leaders, Pompeo writes are “intently focused every minute on their bête noire of Pakistan” because the nuclear power controlled by its military and Islamist-sympathizing intelligence services presents a significant strategic and a terroristic threat to India. “Every action I took with respect to Pakistan—a trip or a phone call or a comment—was sure to result in a message saying that Prime Minister Modi or Foreign Minister Jaishankar wanted to speak. They were relentless and appropriately so,” the book reads.
Great Allies
At the same time, however, Pompeo has staked credit for ensuring a shift in India’s foreign policy that has always “charted its own course without a true alliance system, and that is still mostly the case” and has never remained tilted either towards USSR or the USA.
Pompeo sees the China angle as the key to a change. A strong ally of Pakistan, the Chinese army clubbed 20 soldiers in a skirmish in Ladakh. “That bloody incident caused the Indian public to demand a change in their country’s relationship with China. India also banned TikTok and dozens of Chinese apps as part of its response,” Pompeo wrote.
India’s foreign minister speaking to the UN general assembly on September 29, 2018
Offer details of a shift in US foreign policy, Pompeo – who was CIA chief before becoming Secretary of State, wrote that American diplomacy put Tokyo at the centre of its Asia policy and viewed Seoul as its primary location for geostrategic reach, which neglected India.
“Its population rivals that of China. We are natural allies, as we share a history of democracy, a common language, and ties of people and technology. India is also a market with enormous demand for American intellectual property and products. These factors, plus its strategic location in South Asia, made India the fulcrum of my diplomacy to counteract Chinese aggression,” explained Pompeo. “In my mind, a counter-China bloc made up of the United States, India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the European Union would have an economic weight at least three times that of China. I chose to devote serious quantities of time and effort to help make India the next great American ally.”
This was the key reason why India joined Quad, according to the book. However, certain inherent limitations remain. These include India’s inherent dislike for alliances, a deeply protectionist and state-directed economy, Russian weaponry and its trading relationship and a long international border with China. These issues limit “India’s appetite for risk”.

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#Nuclear #Conflict
( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

February 2, 2023
Balakot Surgical Strike: Did Trump Administration Prevent India-Pak Nuclear War?

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SRINAGAR: Donald Trump’s Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo has claimed that India and Pakistan were on the verge of a nuclear war in February 2019, when India resorted to surgical strikes deep inside Balakot. In his latest book he has claimed that his then-Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj woke him up for a phone conversation to tell him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack and that India too was preparing to retaliate, The Tribune reported.
A 2019 photograph showing Dr Jaishankar with his US counterpart, Mike Pompeo
Writing in Never Give an Inch: Fighting for America, Pompeo claims the phone call came when he was in Hanoi for the US-North Korea summit on February 27-28 and his team then had to work through the night with both New Delhi and Islamabad to avert the crisis.
“I will never forget the night I was in Hanoi, Vietnam, when — as if negotiating with the North Koreans on nuclear weapons wasn’t enough —India and Pakistan started threatening each other in connection with a decades-long dispute over the northern border region of Kashmir,” wrote Pompeo in the book. “I do not think the world properly knows just how close the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spilling over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019. The truth is, I don’t know precisely the answer either; I just know it was too close.”
The book reads: “After an Islamist terrorist attack in Kashmir — probably enabled in part by Pakistan’s lax counter-terror policies — killed 40 Indians, India responded with an air strike against terrorists inside Pakistan. The Pakistanis shot down a plane in a subsequent dogfight and kept the Indian pilot prisoner.”
“In Hanoi, I was awakened to speak with my Indian counterpart. He believed the Pakistanis had begun to prepare their nuclear weapons for a strike. India, he informed me, was contemplating its own escalation. I asked him to do nothing and give us a minute to sort things out (sic),’’ wrote Pompeo, mistakenly referring to Swaraj as “he”. The MEA has so far not responded to Pompeo’s recollection.
India’s foreign minister speaking to the UN general assembly on September 29, 2018
He went on to say that while the incumbent External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was “competent”, his earlier counterpart Sushma Swaraj was not “important” in the matters of external affairs and he used to directly deal with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.
Reacting to this, Jaishankar said, “I have seen a passage in Secretary Pompeo’s book referring to Smt Sushma Swaraj ji. I always held her in great esteem and had an exceptionally close and warm relationship with her. I deplore the disrespectful colloquialism used for her.”
Pompeo in his book also claims that “India, which has charted an independent course on foreign policy, was forced to change its strategic posture and join the four-nation Quad grouping due to China’s aggressive actions.” India and China are locked in a lingering border standoff in eastern Ladakh for over 31 months.

The bilateral relationship came under severe strain following the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020.
India has maintained that the bilateral relationship cannot be normal unless there is peace in the border area.
Pompeo called India the “wild card” in Quad. “The country (India) has always charted its own course without a true alliance system, and that is still mostly the case. But China’s actions have caused India to change its strategic posture in the last few years.”
Pompeo also explains how the Donald Trump administration succeeded in bringing India on board the Quad grouping.
The US, Japan, India and Australia had in 2017 given shape to the long-pending proposal of setting up the Quad or the Quadrilateral coalition.
“In June 2020, Chinese soldiers clubbed twenty Indian soldiers to death in a border skirmish. That bloody incident caused the Indian public to demand a change in their country’s relationship with China,” Pompeo writes.

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#Balakot #Surgical #Strike #Trump #Administration #Prevent #IndiaPak #Nuclear #War
( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

January 26, 2023