Tag: hawks

  • Divided government threatens to clip wings of Congress’ China hawks

    Divided government threatens to clip wings of Congress’ China hawks

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    “The worst mistake we could make is for our China positioning to be dictated by the House of Representatives. There aren’t a lot of thoughtful policy makers over there. We should make our own policy,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

    Biden administration officials are set to give a broad China briefing to senators Wednesday afternoon, after holding two straight classified briefings on the Chinese spy balloon and three unrelated aerial craft shot down by the military. Those meetings have shined a bright light on bipartisan concern over China’s surveillance capabilities, putting Beijing front and center as the 118th Congress gets off to a slow start.

    Yet there are already signs that translating bipartisan worry into legislation would be a struggle. Even senators who are cheerleading further action to hold Beijing accountable — such as re-upping provisions to boost competition with China that Democratic leaders scrapped from last year’s semiconductor bill — talk about their priorities with at least some doubt.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a brief interview Tuesday that “there’s desire to do some of it, if we could,” but observed: “we’ll see where the House is.” A Schumer spokesperson later added that last year’s legislation “was a major step forward to improving American competitiveness, but we need to do more.”

    Lawmakers originally had high hopes for that legislation, known as the CHIPS Act, as a way to stand up to China. But the final version did little more than subsidize microchips, with leadership taking out more China-specific provisions in order to ease passage through both chambers after more than a year of bicameral debate.

    Now, senators are eager to take up those scrapped measures, despite the added problem of partisan gridlock. Senators say even provisions that won bipartisan support last year, such as a trade compromise meant to cut costs for American manufacturers, are unlikely to go anywhere this term.

    “The very strong vote we saw on the [trade provisions] is hard to remove from support that was behind” the broader bill, said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.). “That was offered as an amendment, and as a standalone, it would be difficult this Congress to get that through, but I think we should try.”

    And the prognosis isn’t looking better elsewhere. The Foreign Relations Committee’s top two senators are planning to introduce an updated version of a bill that would challenge China’s economy by strengthening U.S. competitiveness. But senators were clear there’s still a lot of details they’re ironing out.

    Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the foreign relations panel, said that Democratic and Republican panel staff are meeting to draft the legislation. He added that he plans to meet with House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) “on a broad range of issues.”

    “I would like to think from my conversations that there is bipartisan, bicameral interest” in addressing China, he said.

    Suzanne Wrasse, a spokesperson for Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the panel, called bipartisan efforts to boost competition with China a “work in progress” but said the “hope is that this Congress we can avoid another badly broken legislative process on the Senate floor.”

    On the other side of the Capitol, a spokesperson for McCaul said he is part of the discussion on the potential legislation but had no further details to share about the negotiations. A spokesperson for the Ways and Means Committee, the counterpart to the Senate Finance Committee that worked out the trade compromise last year, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Meanwhile, the House is on recess until the end of the month, and the Senate is set to be out next week.

    Not everyone is so pessimistic about the chances of moving legislation. Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) both said on Tuesday they’re hopeful at least some of the provisions — like removing tariffs on imports from developing nations and goods used by American manufacturers — could be revived this year.

    And Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee, was optimistic that a substantial bipartisan committee vote on China competition legislation could lead to movement on the Senate floor.

    As for the prospects of passage in the House, Kaine said “this may be one of the bills where it actually helps for the Senate to go first.”

    On the national security side, Democrats and Republicans on both sides of Capitol Hill have sought to nudge the Pentagon to better posture U.S. forces in the Pacific in order to deter Beijing. Leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services panels have sounded the alarm over China’s military modernization and nuclear expansion, and they’ve made the country a priority as they craft annual defense legislation.

    Emerging from a classified briefing on Tuesday, some senators also argued Congress should fund improvements in “domain awareness” so the military can better track slow-moving or low-flying objects.

    “I think all of this is gonna provide a wake-up call and hopefully motivation to authorize and appropriate money to get on it,” said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who had an unidentified object shot down off the coast of his state last week.

    “I think it’s a revealing moment for the American people who haven’t been tracking this that this country, their leadership, has no problem looking at the whole world, including the American people, and lying their ass off,” Sullivan added of the spy balloon. “And that’s dangerous.”

    There’s also been bipartisan consensus on arming Taiwan as concerns grow that China could be rapidly building its military capability to invade the self-governing island in the coming years.

    Defense policy legislation enacted in December incorporated a swath of provisions proposed by Menendez and Risch aimed at beefing up Taiwan’s defense. Lawmakers notably voted to step up arms sales to Taiwan, greenlighting $10 billion in security assistance over the next five years.

    “If there’s one thing that seems to unify Republicans and Democrats today it’s addressing the China threat, and the spy balloon probably got everybody’s attention like nothing else,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

    Yet he underscored the huge scope of “the challenges we face” on the issue beyond the balloon episode: “an aggressive China, not only economically, but also building a huge military and nuclear arms threat to not only Taiwan … but also to the region and the rest of the world.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Trump’s ‘24 game plan: Be the dove among the hawks

    Trump’s ‘24 game plan: Be the dove among the hawks

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    The claims are a continuation of a posture Trump sought to project both as a candidate for president in 2016 and while in the White House — one occasionally contradicted by his record.

    But his renewed focus on international affairs also comes as the Republican primary field is expected to get crowded with potential challengers likely to pitch their own foreign policy bona fides. That includes two former Trump lieutenants: former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and former secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

    Those close to Trump’s campaign operation say he plans to try and paint himself as an anti-war dove amongst the hawks. They believe doing so will resonate with GOP voters who are divided on, but growing wary of, continued support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

    “Trump is the peace president and he’s the first president in two generations to not start a war, whereas if you look at DeSantis’ congressional record, he’s voted for more engagement and more military engagement overseas,” said a person close to the Trump campaign, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions.

    “Trump is the only person who has said no more funding for the Ukraine war. I haven’t heard Nikki Haley say anything like that… Pompeo or Pence? Where do they stand on Ukraine?”

    In fact, Haley, Pence and Pompeo have all, to varying degrees, called for the U.S. to fund Ukrainians and even, on occasion, criticized the Biden administration for not doing enough.

    Still, Trump’s modernized “America First” framework has already had profound implications, both in upending establishment Republican and neo-conservative orthodoxy on foreign policy and in muddying the consensus on issues ranging from military intervention to how to handle ruthless dictators.

    And as multiple Republican officials noted for this story, last week the conservative and once-hawkish Heritage Foundation stepped away from its long standing demands for a robust defense budget and said cuts to Pentagon spending should be on the table as part of the debt limit negotiations.

    “I do think national security is going to be a much more important issue in 2024 than in many of the most recent presidential elections,” said Trump’s former national security adviser-turned-public critic John Bolton, who also is considering a 2024 run. “You may have noticed there’s a Chinese balloon floating over the country today.”

    Aware that his instincts aren’t as hawkish as some of his potential Republican challengers, Trump and his aides have started to draw contrasts and set the parameters of the debate.

    On Thursday, Trump said Pompeo “took a little bit more credit than he should” for accomplishments made while he was secretary of State, a sign that Trump may try to minimize his opponents’ foreign policy experience, despite having been appointed by him. Later that day, the super PAC supporting Trump highlighted recent attacks on Haley by right-wing conservative commentators, some of whom called her a “warmonger” and “Neocon Nikki.”

    Trump’s team was also eager to tout a Wall Street Journal op-ed endorsement this week from Sen. J.D. Vance, the populist Republican from Ohio, who touted Trump’s inclination against getting into foreign entanglements.

    “Every Republican running is going to be opposed to [critical race theory]. Every Republican running is going to say we need to secure the border and we need to oppose amnesty. Every Republican running is for lower taxes and less regulation,” a Vance adviser said of Trump’s early foreign policy play. “It makes sense for Trump to drag the race where his opponents don’t want to be.”

    Trump’s team also sees foreign policy as an area to draw distinctions with his potential top political foe, DeSantis, who gained national attention for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and embrace of cultural wars but who, as governor, has a limited track record internationally.

    “The governors will have a tough time proving their foreign policy chops because it’s not in their job description so they’re going to have to do something to step up and prove to voters that they’re capable of handling all these issues that present themselves on the global stage,” said David Urban, a Republican strategist who remains close to numerous potential 2024 contenders.

    “[Potential] candidates such as Pompeo and Haley and Pence and the [former] president can say, ‘Here’s me sitting down with Kim Jong Un, and here’s what we were able to accomplish with the Abraham Accords or on USMCA.’ Everyone has something they can talk about on concrete terms, where governors can’t and that will be a point of differentiation among a wide group of them.”

    There are already signs that DeSantis is making moves to address this likely line of attack. He has had phone calls and meetings with foreign leaders and ambassadors in recent months, including a face-to-face session in Tallahassee last week with Mario Abdo Benítez, the president of Paraguay. Relatives of Paraguay’s first lady – Silvana Abdo – were killed in the deadly Surfside condominium collapse of 2021.

    Back in December, DeSantis met in his office with Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador to the U.S., along with Yousef Al Otaiba, the ambassador from the United Arab Emirates. Right after DeSantis handily won re-election he met top officials from Japan, including Koji Tomita, ambassador to the United States, as well as Japanese business leaders.

    “Florida continues to be an important political and economic partner to many countries around the world, and as foreign officials request meetings with our office it is appropriate to further develop these ties,” said Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for DeSantis.

    Bolton, for his part, said he thought Trump would prove vulnerable on foreign policy when it became clear that he had none.

    “He doesn’t have policy on much of anything, he has Donald Trump,” he said. “So his most recent musing is that if he were president he could solve Ukraine-Russia dispute in 24 hours — I think it is so ridiculous it falls on its own weight. …I think people over time and self-identified Republicans just don’t buy it.”

    But so far, Trump’s other likely opponents aren’t taking the bait. DeSantis this week hit back on Trump’s digs about the governor’s Covid response, touting his margin of victory in Florida’s November election, but has not sought to defend his record on foreign policy.

    A person close to Haley’s political operation, meanwhile, said the former U.N. ambassador will tout her own foreign policy record, one that involved helping Trump secure some of his top accomplishments abroad. They include moving the United States embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, repealing a nuclear deal with Iran and securing buy-in from China on sanctions against North Korea.

    While some big gulfs do exist between Haley and her former boss — she has championed U.S. support of Ukraine and became a vocal critic of Putin and Moscow during her tenure in the Trump administration — she likely won’t take swings at Trump, choosing instead to criticize Biden’s approach to China, Iran and the U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “That is not the focus,” the Haley ally said of contrasting with Trump. “We are focused on Biden.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )