Tag: Germany

  • Ukraine frustrated as Germany holds back decision on supply of tanks

    Ukraine frustrated as Germany holds back decision on supply of tanks

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    Germany has declined to take a decision on whether to give Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine at a special international summit, prompting frustration in Kyiv and a warning from Poland that lives could be lost because of hesitation in Berlin.

    It had been hoped in Europe and the US that Germany would at least allow Leopards owned by countries such as Poland and Finland to be re-exported, but despite days of pleading, Berlin’s newly appointed defence minister said no final decision had been taken.

    Instead, Boris Pistorius said on the sidelines of the 50-nation meeting at the Ramstein US air force base in Germany on Friday that he had asked his ministry to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available.

    Germany’s Leopard 2

    Although it was the closest Germany has come to suggesting it might be contemplating the use of the tanks in the conflict, it provoked a number of pointed comments from Ukraine and its allies as the meeting broke up without progress on what has come to be seen as the core issue.

    Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s foreign minister, said Ukrainian lives would be lost because of Germany’s reluctance to act. “Arming Ukraine in order to repel the Russian aggression is not some kind of decision-making exercise. Ukrainian blood is shed for real. This is the price of hesitation over Leopard deliveries. We need action, now,” he tweeted.

    Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said after the meeting that there was “not a long time” available to provide Ukraine with extra equipment before the expected renewed offensives on both sides as the weather improves. “We have a window of opportunity between now and the spring,” he added.

    The chair of the US joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley, said: “This year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine.”

    Milley told reporters that a “continued defence stabilising the front” would be possible, but that would depend on the delivery and training of military equipment to Ukraine.

    Prior to the meeting, Ukraine’s president said pointedly that his country was waiting for a “decision from one European capital that will activate the prepared chains of cooperation on tanks”. In an address, Volodymyr Zelenskiy added it was “in your power” to at least make a decision in principle about tanks.

    Poland, which had said it could donate its own Leopard 2 tanks without seeking permission from Germany, said it had participated in a meeting of defence ministers of 15 countries to make progress on the topic.

    Mariusz Blaszczak, the country’s defence minister, said he was still “convinced that coalition-building will end in success”.

    Berlin is at the centre of the tanks debate because it has yet to allow the re-export of any of the 2,000-plus German-made Leopard 2 tanks owned by Nato countries, holding out for the US to agree to send some of its own Abrams tanks in addition.

    The US argues that its Abrams tanks, which run on jet engines, are fuel-inefficient and so difficult to supply, but earlier this week the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, directly asked the US president, Joe Biden, to send US tanks in return for sending its own Leopard tanks.

    Yet Berlin said on Friday it had backed away from such a demand, leaving Germany to carry on considering the issue in isolation. Steffen Hebestreit, a German government spokesman, said Scholz was not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the US delivered its M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

    “At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” the spokesperson said. “I find it difficult to imagine a German chancellor dictating any conditions or making demands to an American president.”

    Berlin, he further insisted, did not expect Poland to carry out its threat to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unilaterally, without receiving the necessary export licence from Germany. Hebestreit said: “All our partners will surely want to behave in a law-abiding way.”

    Leopard 2 inventories

    There had been hope that Germany might, as a compromise, allow export licences to be issued to European owners of the Leopard 2, while withholding its own Leopard tanks.

    But in the end that too was dashed at Friday’s meeting of 50 western defence ministers in the Ukraine international contact group. Ukraine says it wants 300 tanks to help force out the Russian invaders in the spring, although western analysts say the supply of 100 would be enough to make an immediate difference.

    Zelenskiy had begun the meeting, arguing that urgent action was necessary because “Russia is concentrating its forces, last forces, trying to convince everyone that hatred can be stronger than the world”.

    It was vital to “speed up” weapons supplies, Zelenskiy added, because the war with Russia amounted to a battle between freedom and autocracy. “It is about what kind of world people will live in, people who dream, love and hope.”

    Earlier this week, Britain said it would donate 14 of its Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, while Poland said it wanted to follow suit with a similar number of German-made Leopard 2s. Finland has said it wants to donate tanks, while France has indicated that it is considering supplying some of its own Leclerc armoured units.

    But it is the Leopards that are considered crucial because they are the dominant tank model in Europe. Germany itself has 321 Leopards in active service, plus another 255 in storage, out of a Nato total of more than 2,300.

    Austin also announced a fresh $2.5bn (£2bn) military aid package to Ukraine, including 59 more Bradley fighting vehicles, on top of 50 already announced earlier this month, and 90 Stryker eight-wheeled armoured personnel carriers and 350 Humvees.

    The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the war in Ukraine was escalating, and argued that Nato countries were playing a direct role in the conflict, although the western military alliance is not at war with Russia.

    “It really is developing in an upward spiral. We see a growing indirect, and sometimes direct, involvement of Nato countries in this conflict,” Peskov said.

    “We see a devotion to the dramatic delusion that Ukraine can succeed on the battlefield. This is a dramatic delusion of the western community that will more than once be cause for regret, we are sure of that.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.theguardian.com )

  • If Germany has truly learned from its history, it will send tanks to defend Ukraine

    If Germany has truly learned from its history, it will send tanks to defend Ukraine

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    Germany has a unique historical responsibility to help defend a free and sovereign Ukraine. Europe’s central power is also uniquely qualified to shape a larger European response designed to end Vladimir Putin’s criminal war of terror in a way that deters future aggression around places such as Taiwan.

    As a signal of strategic intent to measure up to this double obligation, from the past and for the future, the Berlin government should commit at the Ukraine defence contact group meeting in Ramstein, Germany, this Friday not only to allow countries such as Poland and Finland to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine but also do so itself, in a coordinated European action. Call it the European Leopard plan.

    Germany’s historical responsibility comes in three unequal stages. Eighty years ago, Nazi Germany was itself fighting a war of terror on this very same Ukrainian soil: the same cities, towns and villages were its victims as are now Russia’s, and sometimes even the same people.

    Boris Romanchenko, for example, a survivor of four Nazi concentration camps, was killed by a Russian missile in Kharkiv. No historical comparison is exact, but Putin’s attempt to destroy the independent existence of a neighbouring nation, with war crimes, genocidal actions and relentless targeting of the civilian population, is the closest we have come in Europe since 1945 to what Adolf Hitler did in the second world war.

    The lesson to learn from that history is not that German tanks should never be used against Russia, whatever the Kremlin does, but that they should be used to protect Ukrainians, who were among the greatest victims of both Hitler and Stalin.

    The second stage of historical responsibility comes from what the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has honestly described as the “bitter failure” of German policy towards Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the start of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine in 2014. That policy could accurately be characterised as appeasement. (In a recent interview, former chancellor Angela Merkel praised the Netflix drama Munich – The Edge of War for suggesting that Neville Chamberlain might be seen in a more positive light.) Fatefully, far from reducing its energy dependence on Russia, Germany further increased it after 2014, to more than 50% of its total gas imports, as well as building the never-used Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

    This historic mistake led to the third and most recent stage. A month after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year, a group of leading German figures formulated an appeal for an immediate boycott of fossil fuels from Russia. “Looking back on its history,” they wrote, “Germany has repeatedly vowed that there must ‘never again’ be wars of conquest and crimes against humanity. Today the hour has come to honour that vow.” (Full disclosure: I co-signed this appeal.)

    Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided against this radical course, arguing that it would endanger “hundreds of thousands of jobs” and plunge both Germany and Europe into recession. Instead, the country made hugely impressive efforts, led by the Green economy minister Robert Habeck, to wean itself off Russian energy.

    While doing so, however, it was paying Russian bills that had soared precisely because of the impact of the war on energy prices. According to a careful analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, in the first six months of the full-scale war, Germany paid Russia some €19bn for oil, gas and coal. For comparison: Russia’s entire military budget for six months in 2021 was around €30bn. (No reliable figures are available for 2022.) Since a large part of Russia’s budget revenues comes from energy, the unavoidable conclusion is that Germany was contributing to Putin’s military budget, even as he prosecuted a war of terror on the very soil where Nazi Germany had prosecuted a war of terror 80 years before. Yes, other European countries also went on paying Russia for energy, but none had Germany’s unique historical responsibility towards Ukraine.

    Vladimir Putin in Moscow at last year’s Russian Energy Week
    Vladimir Putin in Moscow at last year’s Russian Energy Week, when he talked of increasing gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Photograph: Getty Images

    To its credit, the German government’s position on military support for Ukraine has moved a very long way since the eve of the Russian invasion. In total figures of defence aid promised, Germany is among Ukraine’s leading supporters, as it is in humanitarian, economic and financial support. But on arms supplies it has been hesitant and confused, always at the reluctant end of the western convoy. As the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tartly comments: “It’s always a similar pattern: first [the Germans] say no, then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say yes in the end.” It’s worth noting that Germany has a formidable defence industry that has very profitably exported lethal equipment to some quite dubious regimes around the world. So why not send it to defend a European democracy against the new Hitler?

    Berlin’s concerns about Russian escalation in response to higher-end western arms supplies – possibly even to the first use of a Russian nuclear weapon – are shared by the Biden administration in Washington. But there is no risk-free way forward. By systematically targeting Ukraine’s civilian population, Putin has already escalated. Now he is mobilising the Russian Federation’s vast reserves of manpower, and probably intends to launch a new offensive sometime this year. And in the meantime, there is daily and continuing tragedy. Witness today’s terrible helicopter crash, which killed Ukraine’s interior minister, Denys Monastyrskyi, his first deputy, Yevhen Yenin, other senior officials and several children.

    On a sober strategic analysis, the only realistic path to a lasting peace is to step up military support for Ukraine so it can regain most of its own territory and then negotiate peace from a position of strength. The alternatives are an unstable stalemate, a temporary ceasefire or an effective Ukrainian defeat. Putin would then have demonstrated to Xi Jinping, and other dictators around the world, that armed aggression and nuclear blackmail can pay off handsomely. Next stop, Taiwan.

    The exact mix of military means needed by Ukraine is a matter for the experts. It includes more air defence, reconnaissance systems, ammunition and communications equipment as well as armoured vehicles. But any large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive will now require modern battle tanks. Leopard 2 is the best suited and most widely available such tank, with – so successful are German arms exports – more than 2,000 of them held by 12 other European armies besides the Bundeswehr.

    This has also become a litmus test of Germany’s courage to resist Putin’s nuclear blackmail, overcome its own domestic cocktail of fears and doubts, and defend a free and sovereign Ukraine. Scholz’s speech at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday gave no hint of such boldness. But in stepping to the front of a European Leopard plan for Ukraine, Scholz would be showing German leadership that the entire west would welcome. He would also be learning the right lessons from Germany’s recent and very recent history.

    Timothy Garton Ash’s Homelands: A Personal History of Europe will be published this spring

    This article was amended on 19 January 2023. An earlier version said that the film Munich – The Edge of War was a Netflix series, rather than a Netflix drama.

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    ( With inputs from : www.theguardian.com )