PARIS — French unions vowed to continue demonstrations next week amid another day of protests Tuesday against French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reforms — the 10th general strike this year.
Clashes broke out between small groups of protesters and police, especially in Paris, where some people also ransacked a supermarket. But the number of protesters also decreased almost everywhere in the country compared to last week, according to estimates by both French authorities and unions. Around 730,000 people protested in total, compared to more than 1 million last Thursday, according to the French interior ministry. Estimates by trade union CGT, meanwhile, calculated that the number of protesters declined from 3.5 million last week to approximately 2 million on Tuesday.
But Parisians can expect some relief for their noses Wednesday when garbage collectors are set to resume work after weeks of a strike that has left piles of rubbish stacked along streets.
The protests have been running since the beginning of the year, prompted by Macron’s plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 and increase the level of contributions required to receive a full pension. Discontent mounted earlier this month when the government decided to force the measures through parliament without a vote, raising concerns that the protests could turn into a broader anti-government movement like the Yellow Jackets, which brought months of unrest during Macron’s first term in office.
The strikes on Tuesday hit sectors including public transport and schools as well as energy plants and oil refineries, causing fuel shortages.
But Macron’s administration has not shown signs that it will revise the reforms. Government spokesperson Olivier Véran on Tuesday rejected a proposal by the CFDT union to put the measures on ice and find a mediator to resolve the situation.
But Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has invited union representatives to meet at the beginning of next week for talks, according to CFDT leader Laurent Berger.
“The anger begins to rise, even among the most peaceful protesters,” Berger told broadcaster TMC Tuesday evening after protests died down.
Major trade unions are still planning a further day of strikes and protests next Thursday.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
PARIS — In a typically French move, France’s top lawmakers are refusing to side with the United States and single out China’s TikTok.
This week, top members of France’s National Assembly strongly encouraged fellow MPs to “limit” their use of social media apps and messaging services, according to a damning internal email seen by POLITICO. The recommendation does include Chinese-owned TikTok — at the heart of a storm on both sides of the Atlantic — but also features American platforms such as Snap and Meta’s WhatsApp and Instagram, alongside Telegram, founded by Russian-born brothers, and Signal.
“Given the particular risks to which the exercise of their mandate exposes MPs using these applications, we wish to appeal to your extreme vigilance and recommend that you limit their use,” wrote Marie Guévenoux and Eric Woerth from Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party and Eric Ciotti from conservative Les Républicains.
France’s narrative of putting Chinese and American companies in the same basket is in stark contrast to moves by other European countries, including the Dutch government, which decided to target apps from countries that wage an “offensive cyber program” against the Netherlands, such as China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
But refusing to pick sides and follow the United States’ geopolitical lead is a long political tradition in France, which is often accused of anti-American bias. During the Cold War, French President Charles de Gaulle tried to position his country as an alternative between the U.S.’s capitalism and the Soviet Union’s communism.
“France has not mourned the loss of its power and is trying to resurrect the so-called third way, also carried by [European commissioner] Thierry Breton,” said Asma Mhalla, a tech geopolitics lecturer at Columbia University and Sciences Po. “This will serve as a political argument to put French sovereignty and French tech back on the table,” she added, arguing that the next step will likely be to promote French apps instead.
And indeed, the top lawmakers’ letter encourages members of parliament to use French software WIMI for project management and collaborative work.
Their main issue with foreign social media apps is that Chinese and American laws are extraterritorial. The personal data gathered via the platforms — including contacts, photos, videos, and both professional and personal documents — could be used by foreign intelligence services, they argued in their email.
During Macron’s tenure, France has fought tooth and nail against the U.S. Cloud Act, a piece of legislation that allows American authorities to seize data stored on American servers even if they’re located abroad. Paris has even come up with a specific set of rules for cloud services to try and shield European data from Washington’s extraterritorial reach.
In China, an intelligence law also requires domestic technology companies to hand over data to state authorities on subjects anywhere in the world.
“The U.S. are well aware that all their arguments used against TikTok — namely that Chinese law is extraterritorial — awkwardly echo what the Europeans have been reproaching them for some time,” said Mathilde Velliet, a researcher in tech geopolitics at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
“On the other hand,” she added, “the U.S. also believes they cannot be put on the same footing as China, because they’re a European ally with a different political and security relationship, and because it’s a democracy.”
Washington and EU capitals including Paris and Brussels also engage in dialogue on data security issues and cyber espionage, which is not the case with Beijing.
In the National Assembly’s corridors, however, the top lawmakers’ decision to call out foreign platforms from both the U.S. and China was very much welcome. “It’s all starting to look like a third way, which would be European sovereignty,” said Philippe Latombe, an MP from Macron’s allied party Modem. “And that’s good news.”
Océane Herrero contributed reporting.
This article has been updated.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
Western governments are ticked off with TikTok. The Chinese-owned app loved by teenagers around the world is facing allegations of facilitating espionage, failing to protect personal data, and even of corrupting young minds.
Governments in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, New Zealand and across Europe have moved to ban the use of TikTok on officials’ phones in recent months. If hawks get their way, the app could face further restrictions. The White House has demanded that ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, sell the app or face an outright ban in the U.S.
But do the allegations stack up? Security officials have given few details about why they are moving against TikTok. That may be due to sensitivity around matters of national security, or it may simply indicate that there’s not much substance behind the bluster.
TikTok’s Chief Executive Officer Shou Zi Chew will be questioned in the U.S. Congress on Thursday and can expect politicians from all sides of the spectrum to probe him on TikTok’s dangers. Here are some of the themes they may pick up on:
1. Chinese access to TikTok data
Perhaps the most pressing concern is around the Chinese government’s potential access to troves of data from TikTok’s millions of users.
Western security officials have warned that ByteDance could be subject to China’s national security legislation, particularly the 2017 National Security Law that requires Chinese companies to “support, assist and cooperate” with national intelligence efforts. This law is a blank check for Chinese spy agencies, they say.
TikTok’s user data could also be accessed by the company’s hundreds of Chinese engineers and operations staff, any one of whom could be working for the state, Western officials say. In December 2022, some ByteDance employees in China and the U.S. targeted journalists at Western media outlets using the app (and were later fired).
EU institutions banned their staff from having TikTok on their work phones last month. An internal email sent to staff of the European Data Protection Supervisor, seen by POLITICO, said the move aimed “to reduce the exposure of the Commission from cyberattacks because this application is collecting so much data on mobile devices that could be used to stage an attack on the Commission.”
And the Irish Data Protection Commission, TikTok’s lead privacy regulator in the EU, is set to decide in the next few months if the company unlawfully transferred European users’ data to China.
Skeptics of the security argument say that the Chinese government could simply buy troves of user data from little-regulated brokers. American social media companies like Twitter have had their own problems preserving users’ data from the prying eyes of foreign governments, they note.
TikTok says it has never given data to the Chinese government and would decline if asked to do so. Strictly speaking, ByteDance is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, which TikTok argues would shield it from legal obligations to assist Chinese agencies. ByteDance is owned 20 percent by its founders and Chinese investors, 60 percent by global investors, and 20 percent by employees.
There’s little hope to completely stop European data from going to China | Alex Plavevski/EPA
The company has unveiled two separate plans to safeguard data. In the U.S., Project Texas is a $1.5 billion plan to build a wall between the U.S. subsidiary and its Chinese owners. The €1.2 billion European version, named Project Clover, would move most of TikTok’s European data onto servers in Europe.
Nevertheless, TikTok’s chief European lobbyist Theo Bertram also said in March that it would be “practically extremely difficult” to completely stop European data from going to China.
2. A way in for Chinese spies
If Chinese agencies can’t access TikTok’s data legally, they can just go in through the back door, Western officials allege. China’s cyber-spies are among the best in the world, and their job will be made easier if datasets or digital infrastructure are housed in their home territory.
Dutch intelligence agencies have advised government officials to uninstall apps from countries waging an “offensive cyber program” against the Netherlands — including China, but also Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Critics of the cyber espionage argument refer to a 2021 study by the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab, which found that the app did not exhibit the “overtly malicious behavior” that would be expected of spyware. Still, the director of the lab said researchers lacked information on what happens to TikTok data held in China.
TikTok’s Project Texas and Project Clover include steps to assuage fears of cyber espionage, as well as legal data access. The EU plan would give a European security provider (still to be determined) the power to audit cybersecurity policies and data controls, and to restrict access to some employees. Bertram said this provider could speak with European security agencies and regulators “without us [TikTok] being involved, to give confidence that there’s nothing to hide.”
Bertram also said the company was looking to hire more engineers outside China.
3. Privacy rights
Critics of TikTok have accused the app of mass data collection, particularly in the U.S., where there are no general federal privacy rights for citizens.
In jurisdictions that do have strict privacy laws, TikTok faces widespread allegations of failing to comply with them.
The company is being investigated in Ireland, the U.K. and Canada over its handling of underage users’ data. Watchdogs in the Netherlands, Italy and France have also investigated its privacy practices around personalized advertising and for failing to limit children’s access to its platform.
TikTok has denied accusations leveled in some of the reports and argued that U.S. tech companies are collecting the same large amount of data. Meta, Amazon and others have also been given large fines for violating Europeans’ privacy.
4. Psychological operations
Perhaps the most serious accusation, and certainly the most legally novel one, is that TikTok is part of an all-encompassing Chinese civilizational struggle against the West. Its role: to spread disinformation and stultifying content in young Western minds, sowing division and apathy.
Earlier this month, the director of the U.S. National Security Agency warned that Chinese control of TikTok’s algorithm could allow the government to carry out influence operations among Western populations. TikTok says it has around 300 million active users in Europe and the U.S. The app ranked as the most downloaded in 2022.
A woman watches a video of Egyptian influencer Haneen Hossam | Khaled Desouki/AFP via Getty Images
Reports emerged in 2019 suggesting that TikTok was censoring pro-LGBTQ content and videos mentioning Tiananmen Square. ByteDance has also been accused of pushing inane time-wasting videos to Western children, in contrast to the wholesome educational content served on its Chinese app Douyin.
Besides accusations of deliberate “influence operations,” TikTok has also been criticized for failing to protect children from addiction to its app, dangerous viral challenges, and disinformation. The French regulator said last week that the app was still in the “very early stages” of content moderation. TikTok’s Italian headquarters was raided this week by the consumer protection regulator with the help of Italian law enforcement to investigate how the company protects children from viral challenges.
Researchers at Citizen Lab said that TikTok doesn’t enforce obvious censorship. Other critics of this argument have pointed out that Western-owned platforms have also been manipulated by foreign countries, such as Russia’s campaign on Facebook to influence the 2016 U.S. elections.
TikTok says it has adapted its content moderation since 2019 and regularly releases a transparency report about what it removes. The company has also touted a “transparency center” that opened in the U.S. in July 2020 and one in Ireland in 2022. It has also said it will comply with new EU content moderation rules, the Digital Services Act, which will request that platforms give access to regulators and researchers to their algorithms and data.
Additional reporting by Laura Kayali in Paris, Sue Allan in Ottawa, Brendan Bordelon in Washington, D.C., and Josh Sisco in San Francisco.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
PARIS — France is bracing for fresh chaos Tuesday with a day of protests planned against Emmanuel Macron’s detested pensions reform, and trade unions calling for a general strike.
Protests last Thursday descended into turmoil with clashes between police and protesters, and scenes of violence across the country. In the wake of the unrest, which resulted in more than 450 arrests, the French president was forced to cancel a state visit by King Charles III amid security concerns.
Public transport, universities, schools and public services are expected to be disrupted again Tuesday. The impact of the industrial action is being felt across all sectors and areas of public life. A rolling strike of waste collectors in Paris has meant that trash is still piled high in parts of the French capital, and a strike at refineries has led to fuel shortages at some petrol pumps.
Despite widespread unrest, the French president pledged last week that he would not backtrack on the pensions reform which raises the age of retirement to 64 from 62, saying it was “necessary” for the country to balance the books of its generous pensions scheme.
The French government sparked outrage when it invoked article 49.3 of the French constitution to pass its pensions reform, in a controversial move that bypassed a vote in parliament it was expected to lose. The government narrowly survived two motions of no confidence in the National Assembly after the controversial move.
Tuesday’s protest could be an indicator of whether Macron’s inflexibility whips up more discontent on the street or whether the protest movement is starting to subside. French police have been accused of using heavy-handed tactics and it is likely that students and pupils will join protests in greater numbers. On Saturday, a man was left in a critical condition after clashes with police at a French water reservoir project.
Stalemate over pensions reform
Ahead of the protests on Tuesday, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne called for talks with trade unions and announced she would no longer use article 49.3 except when it comes to budgetary measures.
“Obviously there are tensions over the reform, we need to listen,” she told AFP on Sunday. “[We need] to calm the country and give the French some answers promptly.”
A demonstration of Totalenergies striking employees outside the Gronfreville-l’Orcher refinery | Lou Benoist/AFP via Getty Images
However, talks between the government and trade unions over the pensions reforms are at a standstill. Macron has said he is open to discussing a range of issues including working conditions, pay and work-related strain, but not the pensions reform. Trade unions say they would agree to talks only if the government agreed to re-examine the legal age of retirement.
With no clear way out and in the wake of a string of violent incidents over the last weeks, there are fears within the trade unions that France may be facing a socio-political crisis similar to the Yellow Jackets movement that rocked the country in 2018-2019.
Trade union leader Laurent Berger warned Monday that France was in “a total state of tension.”
“There is a common will [with the government] to find an exit for this protest movement and not descend into a madness that might take hold of the country, with violence and resentment,” he warned in an interview with French channel France 2.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
PARIS — Emmanuel Macron’s government faces several motions of no confidence in the National Assembly Monday after his government forced through a deeply unpopular pensions reform bill last week.
Protesters took to the streets in major cities over the weekend, after the government invoked a controversial constitutional maneuver to pass its pensions reform bill in what was widely seen as a move likely to inflame social unrest. Industrial action is expected to disrupt public transport, refineries, universities and waste collection this week, as trade unions hope to strong-arm the government into withdrawing the pensions reform.
On Saturday, more than 100 people were arrested in Paris after a demonstration by several thousand protesters against the reform turned violent.
The 573 lawmakers of the French National Assembly will vote on two motions of no confidence Monday which could trigger the resignation of Macron’s Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and her government. Though the French president would not be forced to resign in case of a defeat, a successful motion of no confidence would trigger a deep political crisis for Macron.
On Saturday, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the reform was “vital” for the country and called on MPs to “face their responsibilities,” in an interview with Le Parisien.
“There will be no majority to bring the government down, but it will be a moment of truth,” Le Maire said with the reference to the votes on Monday. “Is it a good idea to overthrow the government and cause political disorder over the pensions reforms? The answer is clearly no,” he added.
Macron wants to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and extend contributions for a full pension in order to balance the accounts of the pensions system. The reform is a cornerstone of the French president’s second mandate and failure to pass it would have repercussions for the rest of his mandate.
Amid scenes of anger and rebellion in parliament, his trusted lieutenant Borne announced on Thursday the government had decided to invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass legislation without a vote, putting an end to weeks of heated and acrimonious debate. Invoking Article 49.3, however, allowed lawmakers to table a motion of no confidence within 24 hours.
All eyes on the conservatives
Macron’s Renaissance party lost its majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections last year and has faced several motions of no confidence in recent months. In a sign of the deepening crisis in France, it is the first time that the several opposition parties have tabled a motion of no confidence together.
On Friday a small centrist opposition group submitted a cross-party motion supported by leftwing parties, which is also expected get the support of the far right National Rally, after RN leader Marine Le Pen announced that her party would vote for “all the motions of no confidence.”
“A vote on this motion will enable us to put an honorable end to a deep political crisis,” said the centrist MP Bertrand Pancher as he submitted the motion.
A police officer attempts to extinguish flames at the entrance of the town hall of the 4th arrondissement of Lyon | Jeff Pachoud/AFP via Getty Images
Macron’s opponents need the backing of 287 MPs to topple the government — a bar they are not likely to pass given the deep political divisions in parliament. The National Assembly is split between Macron’s Renaissance coalition, the far-right National Rally and the left-wing Nupes coalition.
In addition to getting the backing of the left and the far right, a cross-party motion would need the support of 27 conservative Les Républicains lawmakers to pass. But only 10 are planning to vote for the motion, said a conservative MP who wanted to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic in an interview with Playbook Paris.
MPs are also expected to vote on a second motion of no confidence submitted by the National Rally, that is widely seen as unlikely to pass.
If the government survives the votes on Monday, it will still face a wave of protests this week and the risk of more social unrest. On Friday, the hard left CGT trade union called for “visible actions” ahead of a day of nationwide protests and strikes planned for Thursday.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
LONDON — “Better than the last guy” might not be quite the tagline every world leader hopes for. It could yet be Rishi Sunak’s winning formula.
The British prime minister, swept into office late last year by wave after wave of Tory psychodrama, has cleared several major hurdles in the space of the past month. His success has even sparked a shocking rumor in Westminster that — whisper it — he might actually be quite good at his job.
That was the murmur among hopeful Conservative MPs ahead of this week’s U.K. budget, anyway — many of them buoyed by the PM’s recent moves on two long-running sources of angst in Westminster.
First came an apparent resolution to the intractable problem of post-Brexit trade arrangements in Northern Ireland. Sunak’s so-called Windsor Framework deal with Brussels landed to near-universal acclaim.
A week later, Sunak unveiled hard-hitting legislation to clamp down on illegal migration to the U.K., coupled with an expensive deal with France to increase patrols across the English Channel. Tory MPs were delighted. The Illegal Migration Bill sailed through parliament Monday night without a single vote of rebellion.
Then came Wednesday’s annual budget announcement, with Sunak hoping to complete an improbable hat trick.
It started well, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt making the big reveal that the U.K. is no longer expected to enter recession this year, as had been widely predicted.
But a series of jaw-droppers in the budget small print show the scale of the challenge ahead.
The U.K.’s overall tax take remains sky-high by historic standards — an ominous bone of contention for skeptical Tory MPs and right-wing newspapers alike. Meanwhile, millions of Britons’ living standards continue to fall, thanks to high fuel bills and raging inflation. U.K. growth forecasts remain sluggish for years to come.
“He’s chalking up some wins,” observed one former party adviser grimly, “because he’s going to need them.”
‘Workmanlike’
Among all but the bitterest of Sunak’s Tory opponents, there is a palpable sense of relief about the way he has approached his premiership so far.
“It doesn’t mean everything will suddenly turn to gold,” said Conservative MP Richard Graham, a longtime Sunak-backer. “But like Ben Stokes and England’s cricket team, his quiet self-confidence may change what the same team believes is possible.”
Nicky Morgan, a Conservative peer and former Treasury minister, praised a “workmanlike” budget that would reassure voters and the party there was a “firm hand on the tiller” after the “turmoil” of the preceding year with two prime ministers stepping down, Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss.
UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt meets children during a visit to Busy Bees Battersea Nursery in south London after delivering his Budget earlier in the day | Stefan Rousseau/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Most of Wednesday’s biggest announcements, including an extra £4 billion for childcare and a decision to lift the cap on pensions allowances, were either trailed or leaked in advance. This may have made for a predictable budget speech, but as Morgan put it: “I think that’s probably what businesses and the public need at the moment.”
An ex-minister who did not originally support Sunak for leader said that the general tone of the budget, together with the Northern Ireland deal and small boats legislation, meant that “increasingly it’s hard for hostile voices to pin real failure on Rishi.”
Others, however, fear key announcements could yet unravel. An expensive change to pension taxes was instantly savaged by critics as a “giveaway for the 1 percent.” Headline-grabbing back-to-work programs and an expansion of free childcare will take years to kick in.
Hiking corporation tax was the “biggest mistake of the budget,” Truss ally and former Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg complained.
Doing the hard yards
Observers note that in the wake of the rolling chaos under Truss and Johnson, the bar for a successful government has been lowered.
“[Sunak] could stand at the podium and soil himself, and he’d be doing a better job than his predecessors,” noted one business group lobbyist on Wednesday evening, having watched budget day unfold.
But even Sunak’s fiercest critics praise his work rate and attention to detail, in sharp contrast to Johnson. Most accept — grudgingly — he has set up an effective Downing Street operation.
Having returned from his Paris summit last Friday evening, the PM kicked off budget week with a whirlwind trip to the west coast of California to launch a defense pact with the U.S. and Australia, arranging a bank bailout along the way. He landed back in the U.K. less than 24 hours before Hunt unveiled the annual spending plan.
“It turns out working like an absolute maniac and being forensic is quite useful,” one of his ministers said.
Another Tory MP added: “He’s got the brainpower and will do the hours. He’s not good at barnstorming politics or old school dividing lines — but he is good for the politics we have right now.”
There has also been a clear effort to run a tighter ship behind the scenes at No. 10. One veteran of Johnson’s Downing Street said the atmosphere seemed “calm” in comparison.
There are tentative signs that voters are starting to notice.
James Johnson, who ran a recent poll by JL Partners which showed Sunak’s personal ratings are on the up, said the PM’s growing reputation as a “fixer” seems to be behind his recent rally, and that the biggest increase on his polling scorecard was on his ability to “get things done.”
It remains to be seen if this will shift the dial on the Tory Party’s own disastrous ratings, however, which languish some 25 points behind the opposition Labour Party. “Voters have clearly lost trust in the Tories,” Johnson said. “But if government can deliver … I would expect it to feed through.”
Anthony Browne, a Tory MP elected in 2019, expressed hope that Sunak had begun “changing the narrative” which in turn “could restore our right to be heard.”
Trouble ahead?
Sunak will be well aware that plenty of recent budgets — not least Truss’ spectacular failure last September — have unraveled in the 72 hours after being announced.
And while expanding free childcare, incentivizing business investment and ending the lifetime pensions allowance were all crowd-pleasers for his own MPs, they were not enough to conceal worrying subheadings.
The tax take is predicted to reach a post-war high of 37.7 percent in the next five years, while disposable incomes are hit by fiscal drag pulling 3.2 million people into higher tax bands. Right-wing Tories are not impressed.
Ranil Jayawardena, founder of the Conservative Growth Group of backbench MPs, described it in a statement as “an effective income tax rise,” which will be “a concern to many.”
Net migration is set to rise to 245,000 a year by 2026-27, and will add more people to the labor force than all the measures intended to make it a “back to work” budget, according to the Whitehall’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The message is not one Conservative MPs want to hear.
Already singled out by Labour’s Keir Starmer as a “huge giveaway to the wealthiest,” scrapping the lifetime allowance on pensions will cost £835 million a year by 2027-28 while benefiting less than 4 percent of workers. Conservative MPs reply that NHS doctors are one of the main groups to benefit.
Perhaps most worrying of all, the government’s own budget expects living standards to fall by 6 percent this year and next — less than the 7 percent fall predicted in November but still the largest two-year fall since records began in the 1950s.
There are some problems that can’t be solved by pulling an all-nighter. Ironically for Sunak, whose career was made in the Treasury, his may prove to be the state of the U.K. economy.
Rosa Prince, Stefan Boscia and Dan Bloom contributed reporting.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron will face a moment of reckoning Thursday as lawmakers gear up for a final vote on the government’s deeply unpopular pension reform.
The controversial bill, a centerpiece of Macron’s second term, has sparked weeks of nationwide protests led by trade unions and faced intense criticism from both the far left and the far right in the National Assembly.
The French president wants to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and extend contributions for a full pension in an effort to balance the accounts of France’s state pensions system — among the most generous in the world. According to projections from France’s Council of Pensions Planning, the finances of the pensions system are balanced in the short term but will go into deficit in the long term.
Despite government concessions on various aspects of the bill in recent weeks, opposition to the reform remains very high, with polls saying two-thirds of French citizens oppose it.
Speculation is running high that Macron might not have enough support in the National Assembly, and may choose a constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament — in a move that could unleash a political storm in France.
On Thursday, the French Senate and the National Assembly are expected to cast a crucial vote on the second reading of the bill, after the Senate voted in favor last week. The outcome will determine the shape of Macron’s second term and stands to bear heavily on his legacy.
The worst case: Macron loses the vote in parliament
Losing the parliamentary vote would be a stunning defeat for the French president, who pinned his bid for a second term on his promises to reform France’s pensions system. But political commentators have been speculating in recent days that Macron’s Renaissance party doesn’t have enough votes to pass the bill.
The French president lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections last June. He has since been forced into making ad-hoc deals with MPs from France’s conservative party Les Républicains. But the once-mighty conservatives appear split on the reform, despite assurances this week from their leader Olivier Marleix that there was “a clear majority” backing the bill.
A defeat in parliament would have seismic and long-term repercussions for Macron’s second term and it is likely that the president’s trusted lieutenant Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne would have to resign in such a scenario. Party heavyweights however say they will not shy away from seeking a vote.
“There will be a vote, we want a vote, everyone must take its responsibilities,” said Aurore Bergé, leader of the Renaissance group in the National Assembly.
“There can be an accident … we’ll manage it as we can,” admitted Jean-Paul Mattei, a centrist MP who belongs to Macron’s coalition, with reference to a defeat in parliament.
However, this is the most unlikely scenario as expectations are that the government will bypass a vote if they sense that they are short on votes.
Protestors hold an effigy of French President Emmanuel Macron, during a demonstration on the 8th day of strikes and protests across the country against the government’s proposed pensions overhaul in Paris on March 15, 2023 | Alain Jocard/AFP via Getty Images
Pretty bad: Macron bypasses parliament and loses credibility
In the face of a potential defeat in the National Assembly, Macron has a nuclear option: invoke article 49.3 of the French constitution. This mechanism allows the government to force through legislation without submitting it to a vote.
While the constitutional maneuver may seem like an easy way out, it’s a highly risky move as it allows lawmakers to table a motion of no confidence within 24 hours. Macron’s government has faced down motions of no confidence in the past but the stakes are much higher this time around.
Beyond surviving a motion of no-confidence, Macron and Borne will also come under fire for refusing to submit to the democratic process.
According to Frédéric Dabi, general director of the IFOP polling institute, the impact on public opinion if the government uses the 49.3 article as opposed to passing a tight vote in parliament would be “radically different.”
“Public opinions on the 49.3 article have changed … it is regarded as a tool to brutalize the National Assembly: it’s now seen as authoritarian instead of merely authoritative. People want more transparency, more democracy today,” he said.
France’s hardline unions would no doubt use this to stoke unrest and call for further strike action.
Trade union leader Laurent Berger has warned the government against using the 49.3 article, saying that it would be “incredible and dangerous.”
“Nobody can predict what will happen, the protest movement seems to be running out of steam, but if the government invokes article 49.3 it could be read as forcing the issue and may relaunch the protest movement,” said Dabi.
Still not great: Macron wins vote but faces mass protests
If the French president wins the vote in parliament, it’ll be seen as a victory but one that may completely drain his political capital, and whip up protests on the streets.
“It’ll be a victory for Macron, but it’ll only bear its fruit in the long term. In the short term, he’ll face a tense country where relations have become very strained,” said Chloé Morin, a writer and political analyst.
Trade union leader Berger has said that he would “take on board” the result of Thursday’s vote in parliament. But protests, which have been almost weekly since January, may continue nonetheless across the country in an effort to force the government into backing down and withdrawing the text.
Morin thinks it is unlikely there will be “an explosion of protests” after the vote as people are resigned to seeing it pass.
French police officers intervene during a protest by local council employees against the government’s retirement reform in front on the prefecture in Seine Saint-Denis, in Bobigny, a surburb of Paris on March 14, 2023 | Thomas Samson/AFP via Getty Images
“However, the protest movement might become more radical with lightning protests or sabotages, led by a minority in the citizens’ movement,” said Morin.
In October last year, industrial action in France’s refineries led to nationwide shortages at petrol stations, forcing the government to intervene in what was seen as Macron’s biggest challenge since his re-election last year.
There are dangerous precedents for Macron too. In December 2019, the government was forced to abandon a new green tax when faced with the explosive Yellow Vests protests that shook the political establishment.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
Matthew Karnitschnig is POLITICO’s chief Europe correspondent.
BERLIN — Europe’s worst-kept secret is that the Germans ultimately decide everything.
“I’ll never forget how all the other member states held back in anticipation, waiting to see what the Germans would do,” a senior U.K. official, recalling his time in Brussels, recently told a private dinner of MPs and other German officials in Berlin.
The recollection was meant as a compliment, one the official hoped would ingratiate him with the Germans around the table.
Sad thing is it worked.
The second worst-kept secret in Brussels is that for all the “peace project” kumbaya, the Germans actually enjoy dominating the place. That said, even stalwart veterans of the EU bubble were hard-pressed in recent days to cite a more blatant example of toxic Germanity than Berlin’s last-minute intervention to save the internal combustion engine.
To recap: Last week, EU countries were expected to rubber-stamp a package of measures aimed at ridding Europe’s roads of fuel-burning autos. Under the plan, the EU would prohibit new registrations of cars powered by internal combustion engines beginning in 2035. The sweeping deal, the culmination of years of painstaking negotiations in Brussels and European capitals, is a pillar of the EU’s ambitious goal to become carbon neutral by 2050.
Berlin’s 11th-hour intervention on a deal everyone believed was done and dusted not only left the EU’s environmental policy in limbo, it also laid bare the bloc’s power vertical in all its dubious Teutonic glory. The message: Germany is no longer even trying to hide its power.
Enter France.
“For the French, the situation also represents an opportunity and they are never ones to waste a good crisis,” an EU diplomat said. “The more they can contribute to the idea that Germany goes it alone, the more it strengthens the view that the Germans are an unreliable partner in Europe.”
Germany’s unprecedented move has given rise to fears that other countries will try to follow its example and hold EU reforms hostage by threatening a last-minute veto to win concessions, in effect rewriting the rules of engagement.
Germans may not be known for their finesse, but even so, Berlin’s bare-knuckle tactics to save the engine have not just shocked Brussels veterans, it’s angered them.
That’s why the real significance of the standoff has less to do with CO2 emissions than how Brussels works. One big concern among EU insiders is that the coalition Germany has assembled to save the car, which includes the likes of Poland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, will go rogue as a bloc on other fronts, with or without German support.
Berlin’s views on “the future of mobility” were so clear that Mercedes, VW and BMW pledged to shift to all-electric by 2035 | Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images
It’s easy to mock the circuitous nature of EU decision-making, the push and pull between the European Commission, Parliament and Council, communicated in the opaque dialect of Brussels’ earnest eurocrats.
Boring as it may be, the alchemy produces bona fide results that legitimize and sustain the EU.
That Germany is willing to tinker with this delicate balance betrays either ignorance in the current regime of how the EU works, ambivalence, or both.
One could argue with justification that Germany was never going to kill the golden goose. Invented and perfected in Germany over more than a century by the likes of Mercedes, BMW and Audi, the internal combustion engine has been the wellspring of German pride and prosperity for generations.
The image of a piston-fired Porsche 911 zooming down the autobahn is as core to German identity as sex is to the French.
Take that away, what’s left (aside from beer and bratwurst)?
Indeed, considering that the country’s automakers haven’t proved particularly adept at manufacturing electric cars (or more specifically the batteries at the heart of the vehicles), there was a strong case for Germany to develop low-emission synthetic fuels that would keep the internal combustion engine alive.
Berlin had at least a decade to do so.
Thing is, it didn’t, choosing instead to pour billions into subsidizing the purchase of electric vehicles and the infrastructure to recharge them (full disclosure: the author is a beneficiary of such a subsidy).
What’s more, Germany also encouraged other European countries to follow suit. In fact, Berlin’s views on “the future of mobility” were so clear that Mercedes, VW and BMW pledged to shift to all-electric by 2035. The cluster of countries that have served as the workbench for those companies, from Slovakia to Hungary and Austria, all agreed to go along.
That’s why the German insistence this month that the EU carve out an exception to the engine ban for cars powered by synthetic, so-called e-fuels has caught the rest of Europe flat-footed.
Why now? In a word, politics.
Germans may not be known for their finesse, but even so, Berlin’s bare-knuckle tactics to save the engine have not just shocked Brussels veterans, it’s angered them | John Thys/AFP
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats have dropped below 20 percent in a number of recent polls, putting them more than 10 percentage points behind the first-place Christian Democrats.
Scholz’s smallest coalition partner, the business-oriented Free Democrats (FDP), are in even worse shape. The party fared miserably in a string of recent regional elections and in national polls, it is teetering perilously close to the 5 percent threshold parties need to surpass for entry into parliament.
Party leader Christian Lindner, who used to drive souped-up Porsches around the storied Nürburgring race track, has vowed to save the engine from the clutches of the Green lobby.
Scholz, keenly aware that his party’s base also remains attached to “das Auto,” has been happy to let him try and has so far not stepped in to intervene.
About 1 million Germans work in the auto industry and many of those jobs — especially at suppliers — would be lost if the engine is killed for the simple reason that electric cars have far fewer (and different) parts than traditional automobiles.
The real mystery is why the Greens, the other party in Germany’s governing triumvirate, have not done more to resolve the crisis. Not only has the environmental party championed the engine ban for years, but it is also the most pro-European party in the government and would normally be at pains to keep Berlin from even appearing to undermine Brussels.
Yet Green Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has largely been silent on the issue. Far from the fray in Europe, he was last spotted in the Amazon having his face painted by an indigenous girl during a swing through the region.
In a bid to defuse the standoff ahead of next week’s EU leaders’ summit, the German government sent a letter to the Commission on Wednesday, spelling out what it wants in return for lifting its blockade. Its chief demand — a broad exception for e-fuels — was already rejected by the Parliament and other institutions during the original negotiations over the package.
Reversing that would require the deal to be reopened.
The French are sure to cry foul.
And then Germany will push ahead anyway.
Joshua Posaner contributed reporting.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to bypass parliament and impose his deeply unpopular pensions reform has revealed an uncompromising and weakened leader who now faces severe backlash from emboldened opposition lawmakers and protesters.
Macron had vowed to abandon his top-down approach to politics and work with opposition parties during his second term. But when it comes to old-style politicking, Macron’s troops still have a lot to learn.
Despite intense lobbying efforts with MPs and frantic meetings at the Elysée on Thursday and in the weeks leading up to the decisive moment, the French president and his stalwart lieutenant Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne faced the likelihood of a defeat in parliament and decided instead to invoke a controversial constitutional tool — article 49.3 — to bypass a vote.
“My political interest would have been to submit to a vote … But I consider that the financial, economic risks are too great at this stage,” Macron privately told ministers according to a participant at the meeting.
Macron’s flagship pensions reform aims to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and extend contributions for a full pension in an effort to balance the accounts of France’s state pensions system. Macron’s Renaissance party lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections last year, but the government was able to pass legislation in recent months with the support of the conservative party Les Républicains. It appears, however, that in the nail-biting run-up to the vote, there were concerns the president wasn’t able to rally enough troops in favor of the bill.
Arriving in parliament on Thursday, Borne faced scenes of anger and unrest in the National Assembly as she made her announcement triggering article 49.3. Far-left lawmakers from the France Unbowed party booed and chanted the national hymn the Marseillaise as far-right National Rally MPs shouted “Resign! Resign!” The speaker of the house was forced to suspend debates to allow Borne to make her speech.
“We can’t take the risk of seeing 175 hours of parliamentary debate come to nothing,” Borne said.
After the announcement, opposition MPs vowed to continue the battle against the reform, either in parliament, by supporting a motion of no-confidence, or in the streets.
The leader of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, slammed the move as a “personal failure” for Macron. “It’s his reform, he’s the one who proposed it and defended it during his campaign,” she told reporters at the National Assembly.
Spontaneous protests erupted Thursday evening in several cities across France, including Paris, where thousands of protestors descended on the Place de la Concorde after the move, clashing with police and setting fire to scaffolding. Trade unions called for a day of protest on March 23, undeterred by Macron’s decision to push through the legislation.
Article 49.3, ‘a denial of democracy’
Invoking article 49.3 is widely seen as a perilous move for the government as it allows MPs to put forward a motion of no-confidence within 24 hours and risks radicalizing protest movements in France. Trade unions have already shown great unity and led almost weekly marches and strikes, bringing out hundreds of thousands of citizens to the streets. In Paris, a strike by garbage collectors has seen an estimated 7,000 tons of garbage left on the street.
While the French constitution does allow governments to bypass parliament under certain conditions, its use is increasingly seen as undemocratic in France amid social tensions and the growing mistrust of politicians.
“The government’s use of the 49.3 procedure reflects the failure of this presidential minority,” Charles de Courson, a longtime independent lawmaker, told the BFMTV news channel.
“They are not just a minority in the National Assembly, they are a minority in the whole country. The denial of democracy continues,” he said.
Speaking ahead of the vote, Frédéric Dabi, general director of the IFOP polling institute, said that opinions on invoking article 49.3 — as opposed to passing a tight vote in parliament — are “radically different.”
“Public opinions on the 49.3 article have changed … it is regarded as a tool to brutalize the National Assembly: it’s now seen as authoritarian instead of merely authoritative. People want more transparency, more democracy today,” he said.
But the show of force also exposes a weakened president, who after having lost a majority in parliament and amid low popularity ratings, was unable to turn the tide of public opinion in France.
Surviving now, and later
In the short term, the government will have to survive several motions of no-confidence that are expected to be voted on Monday. Macron’s government has faced down motions of no confidence in the past but the stakes are much higher this time around.
“It’s maybe the first time that a motion of no-confidence may overthrow the government,” Green MP Julien Bayou told reporters, adding that the government was “prepared to wreak havoc” in the country.
Longer term, the move destroys prospects of a closer alliance between Macron’s Renaissance party and the conservative Les Républicains following a string of ad-hoc deals in recent months. In a worrying sign for Macron’s second term, as the debates on the pensions reform reached a climax, the leadership of the conservative party could not muster its own faithful despite concessions on the bill from the ruling party.
The great irony for Macron — needing partners and not finding them — is that he is the man who upended France’s political landscape by crushing the traditional left-wing and right-wing parties in 2017.
The dilemma for Macron is how he will get anything done in the next four yours of his presidency, given the reinvigorated opposition he is sure to face in a parliament dominated by the far left and the far right, and without reliable coalition partners.
Perhaps the only silver lining for Macron is the view from abroad.
“On the international scene, it’s a sign that France can make reforms, even if, frankly, many may think we are having a nervous breakdown over something so small, given that the government has made so many concessions [on the bill],” said Chloé Morin, a writer and political analyst ahead of the vote.
“Everybody knows that [reforming pensions] in France is difficult …That’s what’s at stake for Macron: he is a president who is building his legacy,” she said.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
Poland will deliver four Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine “in the next few days,” President Andrzej Duda said Thursday.
Poland is the first country to formally commit to sending combat planes to Ukraine, which Kyiv says it urgently needs to repel the Russian invasion, which has become a brutal war of attrition in the eastern Donbas region.
“We will be handing over four fully operational planes,” Duda said at a joint press conference with Czech President Petr Pavel, according to French newswire AFP.
Additional planes which are “currently under maintenance” will be “handed over gradually,” Duda added, and Poland will replace the MiGs with American-made F-35s and South Korean FA-50 fighters.
After convincing its Western allies to supply Ukraine with dozens of tanks following a months-long diplomatic marathon, Kyiv has been intensively lobbying its partners in recent weeks to send modern fighter jets.
As he toured European capitals last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made repeated pleas to the U.K. and France to provide modern jets to boost his country’s aging air force, which is mostly made up of Soviet-era planes.
Yet, Kyiv’s allies have been wary of handing over the latest generation of combat planes, such as American F-16s, out of fear it would only serve to further escalate the conflict.
So far, the U.K. has started training Ukrainian pilots as a “first step” toward sending jets, while the U.S. has welcomed two pilots on an American airbase to assess their flying skills, but will not let them operate American F-16s.
Meanwhile, countries such as France and the Netherlands have expressed openness to the idea, but steered clear of making any formal commitments.
The Polish government — one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 — had already signaled its intention to send jets in recent days.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )
