Tag: Conflict

Nuclear Conflict?

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Mike Pompeo, former US Secretary of State has claimed that India and Pakistan were on the brink of a nuclear war in wake of the surgical strikes in 2018, an issue that the US settled in a night that he will never forget
US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania on Monday tried their hands at spinning the ‘charkha’ (spinning wheel) at the Sabarmati Ashram Ahmedabad Gujarat. Pic: ANI
The Balakot surgical strike on February 27, 2018, had triggered a serious diplomatic crisis and was heading towards a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. This is precisely what Donald Trump’s Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo has claimed in his memoir Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love.
“I do not think the world properly knows just how close the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spilling over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019. The truth is, I don’t know precisely the answer either; I just know it was too close,” Pompeo wrote.
Then in Hanoi, Vietnam, for negotiations between North Korean leader and Trump, the Indo-Pak tensions flared after a militant blew up an explosive-laded vehicle hitting a CRPF convey killing more than forty paramilitary personnel on February 14. In retaliation, Indian Air Force flew bombers during the night of February 27 and 28, hitting Balakot, a key Jaish formation. A day later, there was a dogfight between the rival fighters as a result of which India lost a fighter jet and its pilot was caught (later returned). Pakistan Air Force also bombed various spots inside Jammu and Kashmir.
Talking about the call that he received from his counterpart, then Sushma Swaraj, Pompeo wrote that he was informed that “Pakistanis had begun to prepare their nuclear weapons” and India was also “contemplating its own escalation”.
“I asked him to do nothing and give us a minute to sort things out. I began to work with Ambassador Bolton, who was with me in the tiny secure communications facility in our hotel,” Pompeo wrote. “I reached the actual leader of Pakistan, General Bajwa, with whom I had engaged many times. I told him what the Indians had told me. He said it wasn’t true. As one might expect, he believed the Indians were preparing their nuclear weapons for deployment. It took us a few hours—and remarkably good work by our teams on the ground in New Delhi and Islamabad—to convince each side that the other was not preparing for nuclear war. No other nation could have done what we did that night to avoid a horrible outcome.”
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Love for J
The Ministry of External Affairs Ministry in Delhi has avoided reacting to the revelation. At the same time, Pompeo has asserted that he actually worked with NSA Ajit Doval and the then foreign secretary, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who later in May 2019, became the Foreign Minister of India.

In his book, Pompeo has showered praises on Jaishankar’s capacity and knowledge – a man speaking seven languages, English “somewhat better than mine”, professional, rational, and a “fierce defender of his boss and his country”. However, Pompeo has termed Swaraj, a “goofball and a heartland political hack”. Jaishanker has strongly reacted to this and termed it “disrespectful” to his predecessor.
India versus Pakistan
While Pompeo’s book is an idea about Trump’s world order, it offers many details about the Indian subcontinent, especially India and Pakistan.
Indian leaders, Pompeo writes are “intently focused every minute on their bête noire of Pakistan” because the nuclear power controlled by its military and Islamist-sympathizing intelligence services presents a significant strategic and a terroristic threat to India. “Every action I took with respect to Pakistan—a trip or a phone call or a comment—was sure to result in a message saying that Prime Minister Modi or Foreign Minister Jaishankar wanted to speak. They were relentless and appropriately so,” the book reads.
Great Allies
At the same time, however, Pompeo has staked credit for ensuring a shift in India’s foreign policy that has always “charted its own course without a true alliance system, and that is still mostly the case” and has never remained tilted either towards USSR or the USA.
Pompeo sees the China angle as the key to a change. A strong ally of Pakistan, the Chinese army clubbed 20 soldiers in a skirmish in Ladakh. “That bloody incident caused the Indian public to demand a change in their country’s relationship with China. India also banned TikTok and dozens of Chinese apps as part of its response,” Pompeo wrote.
India’s foreign minister speaking to the UN general assembly on September 29, 2018
Offer details of a shift in US foreign policy, Pompeo – who was CIA chief before becoming Secretary of State, wrote that American diplomacy put Tokyo at the centre of its Asia policy and viewed Seoul as its primary location for geostrategic reach, which neglected India.
“Its population rivals that of China. We are natural allies, as we share a history of democracy, a common language, and ties of people and technology. India is also a market with enormous demand for American intellectual property and products. These factors, plus its strategic location in South Asia, made India the fulcrum of my diplomacy to counteract Chinese aggression,” explained Pompeo. “In my mind, a counter-China bloc made up of the United States, India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the European Union would have an economic weight at least three times that of China. I chose to devote serious quantities of time and effort to help make India the next great American ally.”
This was the key reason why India joined Quad, according to the book. However, certain inherent limitations remain. These include India’s inherent dislike for alliances, a deeply protectionist and state-directed economy, Russian weaponry and its trading relationship and a long international border with China. These issues limit “India’s appetite for risk”.

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( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

February 2, 2023
Britain’s semiconductor plan goes AWOL as US and EU splash billions

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LONDON — As nations around the world scramble to secure crucial semiconductor supply chains over fears about relations with China, the U.K. is falling behind.
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the world’s heavy reliance on Taiwan and China for the most advanced chips, which power everything from iPhones to advanced weapons. For the past two years, and amid mounting fears China could kick off a new global security crisis by invading Taiwan, Britain’s government has been readying a plan to diversify supply chains for key components and boost domestic production.
Yet according to people close to the strategy, the U.K.’s still-unseen plan — which missed its publication deadline last fall — has suffered from internal disconnect and government disarray, setting the country behind its global allies in a crucial race to become more self-reliant.

A lack of experience and joined-up policy-making in Whitehall, a period of intense political upheaval in Downing Street, and new U.S. controls on the export of advanced chips to China, have collectively stymied the U.K.’s efforts to develop its own coherent plan.
The way the strategy has been developed so far “is a mistake,” said a former senior Downing Street official.
Falling behind
During the pandemic, demand for semiconductors outstripped supply as consumers flocked to sort their home working setups. That led to major chip shortages — soon compounded by China’s tough “zero-COVID” policy.
Since a semiconductor fabrication plant is so technologically complex — a single laser in a chip lithography system of German firm Trumpf has 457,000 component parts — concentrating manufacturing in a few companies helped the industry innovate in the past.
But everything changed when COVID-19 struck.
“Governments suddenly woke up to the fact that — ‘hang on a second, these semiconductor things are quite important, and they all seem to be concentrated in a small number of places,’” said a senior British semiconductor industry executive.
Beijing’s launch of a hypersonic missile in 2021 also sent shivers through the Pentagon over China’s increasing ability to develop advanced AI-powered weapons. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to geopolitical uncertainty, upping the pressure on governments to onshore manufacturers and reduce reliance on potential conflict hotspots like Taiwan.
Against this backdrop, many of the U.K.’s allies are investing billions in domestic manufacturing.
The Biden administration’s CHIPS Act, passed last summer, offers $52 billion in subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. The EU has its own €43 billion plan to subsidize production — although its own stance is not without critics. Emerging producers like India, Vietnam, Singapore and Japan are also making headway in their own multi-billion-dollar efforts to foster domestic manufacturing.
US President Joe Biden | Samuel Corum/Getty Images
Now the U.K. government is under mounting pressure to show its own hand. In a letter to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak first reported by the Times and also obtained by POLITICO, Britain’s semiconductor sector said its “confidence in the government’s ability to address the vital importance of the industry is steadily declining with each month of inaction.”
That followed the leak of an early copy of the U.K.’s semiconductor strategy, reported on by Bloomberg, warning that Britain’s over-dependence on Taiwan for its semiconductor foundries makes it vulnerable to any invasion of the island nation by China.
Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory, makes more than 90 percent of the world’s advanced chips, with its Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) vital to the manufacture of British-designed semiconductors.
U.S. and EU action has already tempted TSMC to begin building new plants and foundries in Arizona and Germany.
“We critically depend on companies like TSMC,” said the industry executive quoted above. “It would be catastrophic for Western economies if they couldn’t get access to the leading-edge semiconductors any more.”
Whitehall at war
Yet there are concerns both inside and outside the British government that key Whitehall departments whose input on the strategy could be crucial are being left out in the cold.
The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) is preparing the U.K.’s plan and, according to observers, has fiercely maintained ownership of the project. DCMS is one of the smallest departments in Whitehall, and is nicknamed the ‘Ministry of Fun’ due to its oversight of sports and leisure, as well as issues related to tech.
“In other countries, semiconductor policies are the product of multiple players,” said Paul Triolo, a senior vice president at U.S.-based strategy firm ASG. This includes “legislative support for funding major subsidies packages, commercial and trade departments, R&D agencies, and high-level strategic policy bodies tasked with things like improving supply chain resilience,” he said.
“You need all elements of the U.K.’s capabilities. You need the diplomatic services, the security services. You need everyone working together on this,” said the former Downing Street official quoted above. “There are huge national security aspects to this.”
Referring to lower-level civil servants, the same person said that relying on “a few ‘Grade 6’ officials in DCMS — officials that don’t see the wider picture, or who don’t have either capability or knowledge,” is a mistake.
For its part, DCMS rejected the suggestion it is too closely guarding the plan, with a spokesperson saying the ministry is “working closely with industry experts and other government departments … so we can protect and grow our domestic sector and ensure greater supply chain resilience.”
The spokesperson said the strategy “will be published as soon as possible.”
But businesses keen for sight of the plan remain unconvinced the U.K. has the right team in place for the job.
Key Whitehall personnel who had been involved in project have now changed, the executive cited earlier said, and few of those writing the strategy “have much of a background in the industry, or much first-hand experience.”
Progress was also sidetracked last year by lengthy deliberations over whether the U.K. should block the sale of Newport Wafer Fab, Britain’s biggest semiconductor plant, to Chinese-owned Nexperia on national security grounds, according to two people directly involved in the strategy. The government eventually announced it would block the sale in November.
And while a draft of the plan existed last year, it never progressed to the all-important ministerial “write-around” process — which gives departments across Whitehall the chance to scrutinize and comment upon proposals.
Waiting for budget day
Two people familiar with current discussions about the strategy said ministers are now aiming to make their plan public in the run-up to, or around, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s March 15 budget statement, although they stressed that timing could still change.
Leaked details of the strategy indicate the government will set aside £1 billion to support chip makers. Further leaks indicate this will be used as seed money for startups, and for boosting existing firms and delivering new incentives for investors.
U.K. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt | Leon Neal/Getty Images
There is wrangling with the Treasury and other departments over the size of these subsidies. Experts also say it is unlikely to be ‘new’ money but diverted from other departments’ budgets.
“We’ll just have to wait for something more substantial,” said a spokesperson from one semiconductor firm commenting on the pre-strategy leaks.
But as the U.K. procrastinates, key British-linked firms are already being hit by the United States’ own fast-evolving semiconductor strategy. U.S. rules brought in last October — and beefed up in recent days by an agreement with the Netherlands — are preventing some firms from selling the most advanced chip designs and manufacturing equipment to China.
British-headquartered, Japanese-owned firm ARM — the crown jewel of Britain’s semiconductor industry, which sells some designs to smartphone manufacturers in China — is already seeing limits on what it can export. Other British firms like Graphcore, which develops chips for AI and machine learning, are feeling the pinch too.
“The U.K. needs to — at pace — understand what it wants its role to be in the industries that will define the future economy,” said Andy Burwell, director for international trade at business lobbying group the CBI.
Where do we go from here?
There are serious doubts both inside and outside government about whether Britain’s long-awaited plan can really get to the heart of what is a complex global challenge — and opinion is divided on whether aping the U.S. and EU’s subsidy packages is either possible or even desirable for the U.K.
A former senior government figure who worked on semiconductor policy said that while the U.K. definitely needs a “more coherent worked-out plan,” publishing a formal strategy may actually just reveal how “complicated, messy and beyond our control” the issue really is.
“It’s not that it is problematic that we don’t have a strategy,” they said. “It’s problematic that whatever strategy we have is not going to be revolutionary.” They described the idea of a “boosterish” multi-billion-pound investment in Britain’s own fabricator industry as “pie in the sky.”
The former Downing Street official said Britain should instead be seeking to work “in collaboration” with EU and U.S. partners, and must be “careful to avoid” a subsidy war with allies.
The opposition Labour Party, hot favorites to form the next government after an expected 2024 election, takes a similar view. “It’s not the case that the U.K. can do this on its own,” Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy said recently, urging ministers to team up with the EU to secure its supply of semiconductors.
One area where some experts believe the U.K. may be able to carve out a competitive advantage, however, is in the design of advanced semiconductors.
“The U.K. would probably be best placed to pursue support for start-up semiconductor design firms such as Graphcore,” said ASG’s Triolo, “and provide support for expansion of capacity at the existing small number of companies manufacturing at more mature nodes” such as Nexperia’s Newport Wafer Fab.
Ministers launched a research project in December aimed at tapping into the U.K. semiconductor sector’s existing strength in design. The government has so far poured £800 million into compound semiconductor research through universities, according to a recent report by the House of Commons business committee.
But the same group of MPs wants more action to support advanced chip design. Burwell at the CBI business group said the U.K. government must start “working alongside industry, rather than the government basically developing a strategy and then coming to industry afterwards.”
Right now the government is “out there a bit struggling to see what levers they have to pull,” said the senior semiconductor executive quoted earlier.
Under World Trade Organization rules, governments are allowed to subsidize their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, the executive pointed out. “The U.S. is doing it. Europe’s doing it. Taiwan does it. We should do it too.”
Cristina Gallardo contributed reporting.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 31, 2023
Cool your jets: Why the West is making Ukraine wait for fighter planes

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The West isn’t really saying “never” on fighter jets for Ukraine — it just wants to focus first on getting Kyiv weapons for a looming offensive.
That’s the sentiment emerging in the wake of U.S. President Joe Biden’s blunt “no” — echoed to various degrees by leaders in Germany and the U.K. — to the question of whether he would be sending Ukraine the fighter jets it is requesting. While officials have publicly remained relatively unequivocal that no jets are forthcoming, private discussions indicate it may actually just be a matter of time.
At the Pentagon, senior U.S. officials acknowledge Ukraine will need to modernize its aging Air Force with new fighter jets — eventually. But for now, officials are focused on sending the weapons Kyiv needs for the immediate fight.

The same conversations are happening in Europe. Countries like Poland, the Netherlands and France have indicated an openness to the idea, but officials stress there’s considerable work to be done just to get Ukraine the taboo-shattering weapons promised in recent weeks.
“I think it is an issue of longer-term perspective,” said one Eastern European senior diplomat. “We need to deliver what was committed in January as soon as possible. It is really impressive, but time is of the essence.”
The chatter indicates that while the tenor is negative for now, the issue is one likely to linger behind the scenes and eventually reemerge.
It’s a pattern that has occurred over and over for the Western alliance since the war began: Something that was once forbidden — from German weapons in a war zone to Ukraine receiving modern tanks — creeps its way toward reality as the war grinds on, the West’s commitment deepens and equipment requiring significant training no longer seems irrelevant.
“A lot of people still don’t understand that the war is far from over,” Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk told POLITICO. “In fact, Putin appears to have even more of an appetite than ever. Without air support you can’t fight a modern war.”
The world has changed
The possibility of sending Ukraine fighter jets stretches back to the war’s early days.
In the weeks after Russia sent troops streaming across the border, the Polish government claimed it was ready to transfer Soviet-era fighter planes to the U.S. so they could then go to Ukrainian pilots.
A stunned Washington shot down the offer. The training was too difficult, officials said, and sending planes from a NATO base into Ukraine could risk a direct confrontation with Russia. The subject faded away.
At the Pentagon, senior U.S. officials acknowledge Ukraine will need to modernize its aging Air Force with new fighter jets | Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Nearly a year later, much has changed. An early blitz on Kyiv has morphed into trench warfare. A war that may last days or weeks now could linger for years.
Along the way, Western allies have blown through one red line after another. Heavy weaponry, howitzers, long-range rocket systems, armored vehicles — all eventually made their way to Ukraine. And finally, in a watershed moment last month, allies joined together to pledge roughly 80 modern, Western-made tanks.
Suddenly, the idea of fighter jets didn’t seem so outlandish. Ukraine seized the moment, renewing its request. Momentum seemed to be growing. Then Biden and his European cohorts stepped in to slow things down.
Their caution reflected behind-the-scenes arguments from Western diplomats, who said it was impossible to send Kyiv jets and train pilots in time for a looming Russian offensive. And, they noted, new planes are not crucial for those upcoming battles anyway.
Still, a military adviser to the Ukrainian government said the discussion on jets is simply in its “early days” and expressed confidence the Western position will evolve in the coming weeks.
“In Germany,” Melnyk recalled, “I learned that it was helpful to take people out of their comfort zone. Much of the population had no idea what weapons system the army even had in its arsenal. We helped to educate them.”
U.S. officials, congressional aides and advisers involved conceded they are continuing to work on possible jet deliveries behind the scenes.
“They remember him saying ‘no’ to Patriot and Abrams for a while too,” said one U.S. defense official, recalling Biden’s evolving comments on air-defense systems and tanks.
Fuel up for months of jet talk
Indeed, the jets chatter is far from dead.
Kyiv has focused its demands on so-called fourth-generation jets like the U.S.-made F-16s, which have been in service since the 1980s. Ukrainian military officials estimate the F-16 training could take six months; some U.S. officials say it could even be as little as three to four months for seasoned Ukrainian pilots. The cutting-edge F-35s, meanwhile, have never been on the table.
While it’s unlikely the U.S. would send its own fighter jets, which are in high demand for national security missions around the world, officials might consider letting other countries transfer their own F-16s, said a senior U.S. Defense Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. The U.S. must sign off on any F-16 transfers because of export restrictions.
The West isn’t really saying “never” on fighter jets for Ukraine — it just wants to focus first on getting Kyiv weapons for a looming offensive | Omar Marques/Getty Images
Some European countries with F-16s in their inventory, like the Netherlands, have already shown they are open to doing exactly that. France is also transitioning to an air force of Rafale planes, meaning Paris will have older jets it could give to Ukraine — jets that wouldn’t need American sign-off.
“There are other countries that are talking about this. So, as they come forward with proposals for them to do it, I think we’ll have those conversations,” the senior DoD official said. “I don’t think we are opposed on the fourth-generation aircraft issue, I just think we have to make sure that we continue to prioritize.”
Right now, officials are more focused on sending Ukraine air defenses to protect Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, as well as armor and artillery for the expected spring offensive. Sending Kyiv fighter jets “does not solve the cruise missile problem, it does not solve the drone problem,” the official said, adding that there have been no high-level discussions yet about sending F-16s.
Behind the scenes, U.S. administration officials are careful not to rule out jet shipments. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby refused multiple requests to elaborate on the president’s comments on Tuesday. A Pentagon spokesperson said there were no new announcements.
“The biggest risk is prolonging the conflict,” former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told POLITICO on Wednesday. “That’s why we have an interest in ending the war quickly with weapons.”
Western allies, Rasmussen said, must ship Ukraine everything it needs without delay.
“If we deliver all the weapons Ukraine needs, they can win,” he argued, stressing that even included retaking Crimea, the region Russia annexed in 2014 that many Western allies consider a no-go zone for the moment.
The next major moment on defense ministers’ calendar is February 14, when officials gather at NATO headquarters in Brussels for a meeting of the so-called Ramstein format — the grouping for allies to discuss weapons shipments for Ukraine.
While the issue of jets is likely to come up at the gathering, officials see the conversation on jets as a “long-term” project, as one senior European defense official put it. Ukraine may raise the topic at the February meeting, the official said, “but the focus will still be on air defense, tanks, ammo.”
Back in Paris, the mood was nonetheless upbeat on Tuesday as Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov met with French officials. Reznikov predicted Ukraine could receive F-16s, the Swedish-made Gripens “or something from France.”
During the recent discussions around tanks, France moved early to send Ukraine light tanks — a decision it argues set the stage for allies to later approve the norm-breaking battalion of heavy tanks. Now, France is sending cryptic signals it may aim to play a similar role.
“I wonder what the messaging means,” said Pierre Haroche, a Paris-based lecturer in international security at the Queen Mary University of London. “If France wants to retain leadership, it has to follow words with actions.”
Lili Bayer and Matthew Karnitschnig contributed reporting.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 31, 2023
US aid worker killed while evacuating civilians in Bakhmut, Ukraine

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KYIV — Pete Reed, an American volunteer medic and founder of the NGO Global Response Medicine, was killed while helping to evacuate civilians in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
Reed, a former U.S. Marine, died on Thursday in the besieged city in the Donetsk region of the country, GRM said late Friday.
“In January, Pete stepped away from GRM to work with Global Outreach Doctors on their Ukraine mission and was killed while rendering aid,” the NGO said. “Pete was the bedrock of GRM, serving as Board President for 4 years,” it said.
Bakhmut has been one of the major hot spots during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the ongoing attempts to seize the city, Moscow has been throwing thousands of troops at the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut in tactics that have gained the name “meat waves.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the city in December, calling it the “hottest spot” in the war.
“Pete was just 33 years old, but lived a life in service of others, first as a decorated U.S. Marine and then in humanitarian aid,” GRM said. “We fully support Pete’s family, friends, and colleagues during this devastating time.”
Global Outreach Doctors also confirmed the death of Reed, who was the organization’s Ukraine Country director. “Pete was actively aiding in the evacuation of Ukrainian civilians when his evacuation vehicle was hit with a reported missile in Bakhmut, Ukraine, on Feb. 2,” the group said in a statement.
Reed’s wife, Alex Kay Potter, wrote on Instagram that her husband apparently died saving another team member’s life, CNN reported. “He was evacuating civilians and responding to those wounded when his ambulance was shelled,” her post said, according to the CNN report.
“Pete Reed, a volunteer medic, was killed by shelling in Bakhmut, Ukraine, yesterday while trying to evacuate civilians. One of the most selfless people I’ve ever met,” documentary photographer Cengiz Yar wrote in a tweet.

The same day Reed was killed, two other foreign volunteer doctors were injured in a bombing in Bakhmut. The medics — Norwegians Sander Sørsveen Trelvik and Simon Johnsen — were working for Frontline Doctors. They were taken to a hospital in Dnipro for surgery.
They both are recovering and preparing to return to Norway on Tuesday, Grethe Sørsveen, Sander’s mother, wrote on Facebook.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 31, 2023
NATO’s new secretary-general, same as the old one?

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With war raging in Europe, the race to find NATO’s next chief is on.
Jens Stoltenberg was a steady hand as Western capitals rushed to help Ukraine push back invading Russian troops. But as his term expires in September, speculation is growing over who might succeed him.
Could it be a woman? Someone from Eastern Europe?

Moscow’s war greatly complicates the decision, which requires consensus among the leaders of NATO’s 30 member countries.
The next secretary-general must play a tough balancing act in encouraging capitals to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and building up NATO’s own defenses — all while formally staying out of the conflict. Few pass muster for this highly sensitive role.
The “overall feeling,” said one senior NATO diplomat, is that it is “time for fresh air.”
But the allies may end up playing it safe after all, and sticking with Stoltenberg.
The Stoltenberg card
A senior European diplomat summed up the buzz around names in three tiers, ranked by intensity of chatter.
An extension of Stoltenberg’s term is the most-mentioned option.
A second tier includes Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
A third group of less frequently mentioned names, the diplomat said, consists of Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, Slovakia’s President Zuzana Čaputová and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of Germany.
Jens Stoltenberg was a steady hand as Western capitals rushed to help Ukraine push back invading Russian troops. But as his term expires in September, speculation is growing over who might succeed him | Valeria Mongell/AFP via Getty Images
Since all of NATO’s secretaries-general have thus far been male, there is pressure within the ranks to appoint a woman.
“Time for a female Sec Gen,” said the senior NATO diplomat. “If men try to hold their positions forever, fair representation of women will never have a chance.”
And some allies have pushed for more regional diversity. Stoltenberg, who has held the job since 2014, is a former Norwegian prime minister. His most recent predecessors were Danish, Dutch and British.
The current secretary-general’s term was quickly extended last March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many officials now believe that another extension for Stoltenberg, even if short, is a serious possibility.
The longtime leader is seen as a safe pair of hands. Despite some delegations preferring to see a fresh face soon, Stoltenberg is still perceived as a rare senior official who can keep his cool — and stick to the script — in even the gravest of crises.
“Stoltenberg wants to stay,” said the senior NATO diplomat.
But giving Stoltenberg a short extension could make a future replacement decision collide with the EU’s own top jobs competition in 2024, not to mention the upcoming U.S. presidential election — an outcome some allies would prefer to avoid.
A NATO spokesperson declined to elaborate on Stoltenberg’s future aspirations. Asked in December about the issue, the current secretary-general told the BBC: “My focus now is on my responsibilities.”
“I don’t speculate,” he added, “about what will happen after my tenure.”
The eastern front
Some see candidates from Eastern Europe as particularly suitable.
Already before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was momentum for the alliance to select a secretary-general from the east. Some officials in the region argue that the war has since strengthened the case for someone from a country like Estonia or Lithuania.
Slovakia’s Zuzana Čaputová ticks both boxes as a female eastern candidate, though her name is mentioned less often in alliance circles | Pool photo by Adrian Dennis/Getty Images
“For years, the countries of the eastern flank have been warning about Russia’s threat,” said an official from the Baltics.
The region’s countries, the Baltic official said, were front-runners in boosting military spending and pushing the alliance to improve its defenses.
“It would be very logical and sobering,” the official continued, “to have someone who is experienced in dealing with Russia and who understands Russia’s logic and mentality, to lead the North Atlantic Alliance.”
Slovakia’s Čaputová ticks both boxes as a female eastern candidate, though her name is mentioned less often in alliance circles.
A spokesperson for Čaputová said she was focused on her current job, but said the possibility of a Slovak being floated for the NATO post was “a strong reflection of our foreign and security decisions.”
Another figure possibly in the running is Klaus Iohannis, Romania’s president. But he could face obstacles from neighboring Hungary, and opposition from those who would prefer a female candidate.
Some western capitals, however, would not support such candidates at the moment, seeing the alliance’s east — and the Baltic states in particular — as too hawkish when war is raging next door.
Estonia’s Kallas herself has played down expectations, telling local media in November that “the likelihood of an offer like this being made” is “extremely low.”
The Western option
Western NATO countries are for some allies a reliable fallback source for possible leadership.
Wallace, Britain’s defense secretary, is well respected and has previously said that NATO would be a “nice job.” However, numerous European capitals — in particular Paris — are expected to object to a London name and insist on an EU candidate.
One possible compromise being floated in Brussels is yet another secretary-general from the Netherlands. Dutch politicians have traditionally been a popular choice for the role, previously holding the post for three terms covering 21 years in the past six decades.
The Dutch are seen as serious on defense but not as hawkish as the Baltics — and the names of current Prime Minister Rutte, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag and Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren are all circulating as possible candidates.
Asked about the speculation, Rutte said he wanted to “leave politics altogether and do something completely different.” The two Dutch ministers did not express interest in the job.
Commission President von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, is a female candidate who could gain support from western capitals nervous about the prospect of a leader from the eastern flank, but it’s unclear whether she is interested in the role. “We never comment on such speculations,” said a Commission spokesperson.
Although her reputation in security circles is mixed, von der Leyen is seen as a strong possible candidate regardless — if the timing aligns and she does not get a second term as European Commission president.
Other female politicians floated include Canada’s widely respected Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly. Nevertheless, officials say, as the alliance focuses on boosting its defenses, Ottawa’s low defense spending and non-European status mean that a Canadian is unlikely to get the job.
Amid all the speculation, some within the alliance dismiss the breathless names game.
“This is more a basket of names that came to anybody’s mind,” said a second senior European diplomat, adding: “My guess: Stoltenberg.”
Jacopo Barigazzi and Cristina Gallardo contributed reporting.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

January 31, 2023
European allies will send about 80 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Germany says

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BERLIN — Germany and its European partners plan to “quickly” send two Leopard 2 tank battalions to Ukraine — suggesting about 80 vehicles — the government in Berlin announced Wednesday, adding that Germany would provide one company of 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks “as a first step.”
Other countries likely to send Leopards to the war against Russia include Poland, Spain, Norway and Finland.
The decision by Chancellor Olaf Scholz — which emerged on Tuesday evening — marks a decisive moment in Western support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, which entered its 12th month this week and could soon heat up further as Moscow is expected to launch a new offensive.

Following Berlin’s move, other European countries like Spain and Norway reportedly agreed to join the Leopard tank alliance.
Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, welcomed the German announcement as a “first step.”
“Leopards are very much needed,” he said on Telegram.
Zelenskyy himself also welcomed the move on Twitter. “Sincerely grateful to the Chancellor and all our friends in” Germany, he said.
Russia’s Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechaev said in a statement the decision was “extremely dangerous,” and took the conflict “to a new level of confrontation.”
Kyiv had long urged Germany and other partners to supply its army with the powerful German-built Leopard 2 tank, but Scholz hesitated to take the decision, partly out of concern that it could drag Germany or NATO into the conflict. He remained adamant that such a move had to be closely coordinated and replicated by Western allies, most notably the United States.
The news of an imminent announcement by U.S. President Joe Biden to send “a significant number” of American M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine facilitated the chancellor’s decision. Scholz had come under huge pressure from European partners like Poland, as well as his own coalition partners in government, to no longer block the delivery of the German tank. Since they are German-made, their re-export needed the approval of the German government.
“This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We act internationally in a closely coordinated manner,” Scholz said in a written statement. He is also due to address the German parliament at 1 p.m. on Wednesday to further explain his decision.
“The goal is to quickly form two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine,” a German government spokesperson said.
“As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will also hand over Leopard-2 tanks,” the spokesperson added.
The spokesperson also said the training of Ukrainian crews on the tanks “is to begin rapidly in Germany.” Berlin would also provide “logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.”
Moreover, Germany will provide partner countries like Spain, Poland, Finland or Norway, which “want to quickly deliver Leopard-2 tanks from their stocks,” the necessary re-export permission, the spokesperson said.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg tweeted that he “strongly welcomes” Berlin’s decision. “At a critical moment in Russia’s war, these can help Ukraine to defend itself, win & prevail as an independent nation.”
Spain, which owns one of the largest fleets of Leopards in the EU, with 347 tanks, has previously said it would send tanks to Kyiv as part of a European coalition, according to El País.
The Norwegian government is considering sending eight of its 36 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but no decision has been made yet, Norwegian daily DN reported late Tuesday after a meeting of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs and defense, quoting sources close to the deliberation.
Portugal, which has 37 Leopards, could provide four tanks to the assembling European coalition, a source close to the government told Correio da Manhã late on Tuesday.
The Netherlands, which is leasing 18 Leopards from Germany, is also weighing supplying some of their armored vehicles, Dutch newswire ANP reported, quoting a government spokesperson. On Tuesday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he was “willing to consider” buying the tanks from Germany and shipping them to Ukraine, but that no decision had been made.
On Wednesday, the Swedish defense minister said that Sweden did not exclude sending some of its own tanks at a later stage, according to Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet.
Wilhelmine Preussen and Zoya Sheftalovich contributed reporting.
This article was updated.

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January 24, 2023
Poland ready to build ‘smaller coalition’ to send tanks to Ukraine without Germany

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If Germany won’t play ball, then Poland will find other partners to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in pointed remarks accusing Berlin of foot-dragging in its support of Kyiv against invading Russian forces.
Poland is prepared to go around German opposition to build a “smaller coalition” of countries and find allies willing to send the tanks to Ukraine, Morawiecki said in an interview with the Polish Press Agency published on Sunday.
“We will not passively watch Ukraine bleed to death,” Morawiecki said.

His remarks come amid a heated debate over whether to send the German-made battle tanks to Ukraine. Kyiv has requested the weapons in order to renew its offensive against Russia in a push to reconquer captured territory.
Germany has expressed reluctance toward sending tanks without the U.S. doing the same, as it fears an escalation of the conflict. Berlin also holds a veto power over the re-export of the weapons from any of its allies. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has denied blocking any deliveries.
“We are in very close dialogue on this issue with our international partners, above all with the U.S.,” Pistorius, who took up the defense post last week, said in an interview with Bild published on Sunday.
Morawiecki has previously said that he was ready to go ahead with Leopard deliveries even without Berlin’s approval.
“Since Minister Pistorius denies that Germany is blocking the supply of tanks to Ukraine, I would like to hear a clear declaration that Berlin supports sending them,” the prime minister told the Polish Press Agency.
“The war is here and now. … Do the Germans want to keep them in storage until Russia defeats Ukraine and is knocking on Berlin’s door?” Morawiecki said.
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said in a statement that Germany was edging towards allowing the tanks to be sent — and advised “patience and perseverance.” But the broader takeaway was that Ukraine had to rebuild its own armaments industry in order to not have to only rely on help from abroad in the future, he added.

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January 21, 2023
Top Russia official threatens West with ‘global catastrophe’ over weapons to Ukraine

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Continued deliveries of arms to Ukraine by its allies in the West will lead to retaliation with “more powerful weapons,” a top official in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime said on Sunday.
Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of Russia’s lower house, the State Duma, threatened Europe and the U.S. with “global catastrophe” over their continued military support to the government in Kyiv, which is trying to continue retaking territory it lost in the Russian invasion.
Volodin directly invoked the use of nuclear weapons in his statement over messaging app Telegram.
“Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. This is because these states have not faced a situation in which the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of their countries were threatened,” the Russian official wrote in his social media post.
The threat comes amid arguments over whether Germany will send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine to fight the Russian invasion. Kyiv has requested the German-made tanks, which it says it needs to renew its counteroffensive against Moscow’s forces. But Berlin has so far resisted the call from Ukraine and its allies to send the tanks without the U.S. making the first move, over fears of an escalation in the conflict.
Berlin also hasn’t approved deliveries of the tanks from its allies, as Germany gets a final say over any re-exports of the vehicles from countries that have purchased them.
Newly appointed German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is planning a trip to Ukraine, which could come in the next month, German newspaper Bild, a sister publication of POLITICO in the Axel Springer Group, reported on Sunday, citing an interview. Asked about the Leopard tanks, Pistorius said: “We are in very close dialogue on this issue with our international partners, above all with the U.S.”
In his Telegram post, Russia’s Volodin said: “With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war … foreign politicians making such decisions need to understand that this could end in a global tragedy that will destroy their countries.”

It’s not the first time that top Russian politicians threaten a nuclear escalation. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has invoked the use of nuclear weapons more than once since the outbreak of the conflict 11 months ago.

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January 21, 2023