Tag: China

Rishi Sunak is haunted by ghosts of prime ministers past

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LONDON — “Back to her old self again” was how one erstwhile colleague described Liz Truss, who made her return to the U.K.’s front pages at the weekend.
That’s exactly what Rishi Sunak and his allies were afraid of.
Truss, who spent 49 turbulent days in No. 10 Downing Street last year, is back. After a respectful period of 13 weeks’ silence, the U.K.’s shortest-serving prime minister exploded back onto the scene with a 4,000-word essay in the Sunday Telegraph complaining that her radical economic agenda was never given a “realistic chance.”
In her first interview since stepping down, broadcast Monday evening, she expanded on this, saying she encountered “system resistance” to her plans as PM and did not get “the level of political support required” to change prevailing attitudes.
While the reception for Truss’s relaunch has not been exactly rapturous — with much of the grumbling coming from within her own party — it still presents a genuine headache for her successor, Sunak, who must now deal with not one but two unruly former prime ministers jostling from the sidelines.
Boris Johnson is also out of a job, but is never far from the headlines. Recent engagements with the U.S. media and high-profile excursions to Kyiv have ensured his strident views on the situation in Ukraine remain well-aired, even as he racks up hundreds of thousands in fees from private speaking engagements around the world.
Wasting no time
Truss and Johnson have, typically, both opted for swifter and more vocal returns to frontline politics than many of their forerunners in the role.
“Most post-war prime ministers have been relatively lucky with their predecessors,” says Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. “They have tended to follow the lead of [interwar Conservative PM] Stanley Baldwin, who in 1937 promised: ‘Once I leave, I leave. I am not going to speak to the man on the bridge, and I am not going to spit on the deck.’”

Such an approach has never been universal. Ted Heath, PM from 1970-74, made no secret of his disdain for his successor as Tory leader Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher in turn “behaved appallingly” — in Bale’s words — to John Major, who replaced her in Downing Street in 1990 after she was forced from office.
But more recent Tory PMs have kept a respectful distance.
David Cameron quit parliament entirely after losing the EU referendum in 2016, and waited three years before publishing a memoir — reportedly in order to avoid “rocking the boat” during the ongoing Brexit negotiations.
And while Theresa May became an occasional liberal-centrist thorn in Boris Johnson’s side, she did so only after a series of careful, low-profile contributions in the House of Commons on subjects close to her heart, such as domestic abuse and rail services in her hometown of Maidenhead.
“You might expect to see former prime ministers be a tad more circumspect in the way they re-enter the political debate,” says Paul Harrison, former press secretary to May. “But then she [Truss] wasn’t a conventional prime minister in any sense of the word, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that she’s done something very unconventional.”
Truss’s rapid refresh has not met with rave reviews.
Paul Goodman, editor of influential grassroots website ConservativeHome, writes that “rather than concede, move on, and focus on the future, she denies, digs in and reimagines the past,” while Tory MP Richard Graham told Times Radio that Truss’ time in office “was a period that [people] would rather not really remember too clearly.”
One long-serving Conservative MP said “she only had herself to blame for her demise, and we are still clearing up some of the mess.” Another appraised her latest intervention simply with an exploding-head emoji.
Trussites forever
But despite Tory appeals for calm, the refusal of Truss and Johnson to lie low remains a serious worry for the man eventually chosen to lead the party after Truss crashed and burned and Johnson thought better of trying to stage a comeback.
Between them, the two ex-PMs have the ability to highlight two of Sunak’s big weaknesses.
While Truss may never live down the disastrous “mini-budget” of last September which sent the U.K. economy off the rails, her wider policy agenda still has a hold over a number of Conservative MPs who believe they have no hope of winning the election without it.
This was the rationale behind the formation last month of the Conservative Growth Group, a caucus of MPs who will carry the torch for the low-tax, deregulatory approach to government favored by Truss and who continue to complain Sunak has little imagination when it comes to supply-side reforms.
Simon Clarke, who was a Cabinet minister under Truss, insisted “she has thought long and hard” about why her approach failed and “posed important questions” about how the U.K. models economic growth in her Telegraph piece.
Other Conservatives have been advocating a reappraisal of the actions of the Bank of England in the period surrounding the mini-budget, arguing that Truss was unfairly blamed for a collapse in the bond market.
But Harrison doubts whether she may be the best advocate for the causes she represents. “There’s a question about whether it actually best serves her interests in pushing back against a strong prevailing understanding of what happened so soon after leaving office.”
Johnson, meanwhile — to his fans, at least — continues to symbolize the star quality and ballot box appeal which they fear Sunak lacks.
One government aide who has worked with both men said Johnson’s strength lay in his “undeniable charisma” and persuasive power, while Sunak, more prosaically, “was all about hard work.”
These apparent deficiencies feed into a fear among Sunak’s MPs that he is governing too tentatively and, as one ally put it recently, needs to rip off the “cashmere jumper.”
It’s been posited that British prime ministers swing back and forth between “jocks” and “nerds” — and nothing is more likely to underline Sunak’s nerdiness than a pair of recently-deposed jocks refusing to shut up.
Trouble ahead
Unluckily for Sunak, there are at least three big-ticket items coming up which will provide ample ground on which his nemeses can cause trouble.
One is the forthcoming budget — the government’s annual public spending plan, due March 15. Truss and Johnson are unlikely to get personally involved, but Truss loyalists will make a nuisance of themselves if Sunak’s approach is judged to offer the paucity of answers on growth they already fear.
Before that, Truss is expected to make her first public appearance outside the U.K. with a speech on Taiwan which could turn up the heat on Sunak over his approach to relations with China.
One person close to her confirmed China would be “a big thing” for her, and is expected to be a theme of her future parliamentary interventions.
Then there is the small matter of the Northern Ireland protocol, the thorniest unresolved aspect of the Brexit deal with Brussels where tortured negotiations appear to be reaching an endgame.
Sunak has been sitting with a draft version of a technical deal since last week, according to several people with knowledge of the matter, and is now girding his loins for the unenviable task of trying to get a compromise agreement past both his own party and hardline Northern Irish unionists.
A Whitehall official working on the protocol said Johnson “absolutely” had the power to detonate that process, and that “he should never be underestimated as an agent of chaos.”
One option touted by onlookers is for Sunak to attempt to assemble the former prime ministers and ask them to stand behind him on a matter of such huge national and international significance. But as things stand such a get-together is difficult to picture.
At the heart of Johnson and Truss’ actions seems to be an essential disquiet over the explosive manner of their departures.
They appear fated to follow in Thatcher’s footsteps, as Bale puts it — “not caring how much trouble they cause Sunak, because in their view, he should never have taken over from them in the first place.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 8, 2023
Study: No new COVID variants from China since zero-COVID policy lifted

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Fears that China’s lifting of its zero-COVID policy could result in fresh coronavirus variants seem to have not (yet) materialized.
A study published in The Lancet on Wednesday found there had been no new COVID-19 variants in the country since it lifted its draconian policy last year, a move which triggered a surge in cases and deaths.
The analysis by researchers in China of more than 400 new cases in Beijing between November 14 and December 20 shows that more than 90 percent were of the Omicron subvariants BA.5.2 and BF.7.
These variants are similar to the ones circulating in the EU/EEA during the fall of 2022, before the surge in cases in China, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said, and there is no evidence they pose a greater risk compared with those circulating in the EU/EEA now.
China has been criticized for its lack of transparency throughout the pandemic, including during this most recent wave of infections.
But the EU’s disease agency, the ECDC, confirmed that its own analysis — which included sequencing cases detected through airport arrivals in several European countries and wastewater analysis of airplanes arriving in Europe from China — found that BA.5.2 and BF.7 were dominant, although they cautioned that this wastewater data is “quite limited and are still being verified.”
While the authors of the Lancet study conducted their analysis in Beijing, they write that the results “could be considered a snapshot of China.”
But others caution against such a leap.

“The SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiological profile in one region of a vast and densely populated country cannot be extrapolated to the entire country,” write Wolfgang Preiser and Tongai Maponga of Stellenbosch University in South Africa in a linked comment in The Lancet. The two were not involved in the study.
“In other regions of China, other evolutionary dynamics might unfold, possibly including animal species that could become infected by human beings and spill back a further evolved virus,” they write.
The prevalence of each of the two variants — BF.7 and BA.5.2 — varies from province to province, World Health Organization spokesperson Christian Lindmeier told POLITICO, referring to data from the China CDC.
Travel restrictions
China’s lifting of its zero-COVID policies at the end of last year led to EU countries recommending a raft of travel measures for visitors from China.
At its last meeting on Friday, the EU’s de facto emergency crisis forum, the IPCR, decided to maintain these measures for now. The issue will be reevaluated at the next IPCR meeting scheduled for February 16.
Europe’s airport lobby, ACI Europe, says it would like passenger testing to be dropped.
“We support getting away from testing passengers as a way to track COVID-19, especially in the context of the comprehensive assessment issued by the ECDC on the lack of expected impact of COVID-19 surge in China on the epidemiological situation in the EU/EEA. Airports and airlines call for any travel recommendations to be scientifically driven and risk-based, which is regrettably not the case now,”Agata Łyżnik, communications manager at ACI Europe, the European airports’ lobby, told POLITICO.
With additional reporting from Mari Eccles.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 8, 2023
China to EU: Drop calls for Ukraine’s ‘complete victory’

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Beijing’s top envoy to the EU on Wednesday questioned the West’s call to help Ukraine achieve “complete victory,” on the eve of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s possible arrival in Brussels.
Fu Cong, the Chinese ambassador to the EU, also criticized the bloc for “erosion” of its commitment on Taiwan, warning “senior officials from the EU institutions” to stop visiting the self-ruled island.
Fu’s provocative comments on Ukraine and Taiwan, two of the most sensitive geopolitical controversies between China and the West, come as Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning a trip to Moscow, according to the Russian government.

Insisting that the Russia-Ukraine “conflict” was merely an “unavoidable” talking point, Fu said Beijing otherwise enjoys a multifaceted “traditional friendship” with Moscow.
“Frankly speaking, we are quite concerned about the possible escalation of this conflict,” Fu said at an event hosted by the European Policy Centre in Brussels. “And we don’t believe that only providing weapons will actually solve the problem.”
“We are quite concerned about people talking about winning a complete victory on the battlefield. We believe that the right place would be at the negotiating table,” Fu added.
His remarks come on the same day as Zelenskyy visits London, his first trip to Western Europe since Russia launched its full-scale invasion almost a year ago. POLITICO reported that Zelenskyy — who according to his aides has never had his calls picked up by Xi, while the Chinese leader has instead met or called Putin on multiple occasions over the past year — was also planning a visit to Brussels on Thursday, before bungled EU communications threw the trip into doubt.
The idea of a “complete victory” for Ukraine has been most vocally supported by Baltic and Eastern European countries. French President Emmanuel Macron has vowed support for “victory” for Ukraine.
But toeing Xi’s line, Fu said the “security concerns of both sides” — Ukraine as well as Russia — should be taken care of.
Fu also dismissed the comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan, both of which face military threats from a nuclear-armed neighbor.
“I must state up front that [the] Ukrainian crisis and the Taiwan issue are two completely different things. Ukraine is an independent state, and Taiwan is part of China,” he said. “So there’s no comparability between the two issues.”
He went on to criticize the EU’s handling of the Taiwan issue.
“Nowadays, what we’re seeing is that there is some erosion of these basic commitments. We see that the parliamentarians and also senior officials from the EU institutions are also visiting Taiwan,” he said.
The European Commission has not publicized any details of its officials’ visit to Taiwan. The European External Action Service, the EU’s diplomatic arm, has not replied to a request for comment.
If the EU signed an investment treaty with Taiwan, Fu said this would “fundamentally change … or shake the foundation” of EU-China relations. “It is that serious.”

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 8, 2023
Chinese mobile masts loom over the Munich Security Conference

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MUNICH, Germany — As the world’s security elite gathers in Munich this week, they’ll be connecting their mobile phones to Chinese telecoms equipment surrounding the venue.
Heads of state, security chiefs, spooks and intelligence officials head to Germany on Friday for their blue-riband annual gathering, the Munich Security Conference. On the event’s VIP list are U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and hundreds more heads of state and government, ministers and foreign dignitaries.
The gathering takes place at the five-star Hotel Bayerischer Hof. From its ice-themed Polar Bar on the hotel’s rooftop, you can overlook the city’s skyline, spotting multiple telecommunications antennas poking between church steeples. Some of these antennas, within 300 meters of the hotel, are equipped with hardware supplied by controversial Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, POLITICO has learnt through visual confirmation, talks with several equipment experts and information from industry insiders with knowledge of the area’s networks.
One mast, on top of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof building itself, is also potentially equipped with Huawei gear, talks with two industry insiders suggested.
The question of whether to allow Chinese 5G suppliers into Western countries in past years became a bone of contention between Berlin on the one hand and Washington and like-minded partners on the other. This week’s gathering also comes as the U.S. continues to call out Germany’s economic reliance on Beijing, with a new report showing the German trade deficit with China exploded in 2022, and amid sky-high tensions between Washington and Beijing over surveillance balloons hovering over the U.S., Canada and elsewhere.
“The dependence on Huawei components in our 5G network continues to pose an incalculable security risk,” said Maximilian Funke-Kaiser, liberal member of the German Bundestag and digital policy speaker for the government party Free Democratic Party (FDP).
“The use of Huawei technology in the mobile network here runs counter to Germany’s security policy goals,” Funke-Kaiser said, calling the vendor’s involvement in German 4G and 5G “a mistake in view of the Chinese company’s closeness to the state.”
Huawei has consistently denied posing a security risk to European countries.

Delving into data
Despite extensive reporting, POLITICO was unable to gather on-the-record confirmation of which vendor’s telecoms equipment was used for which masts. Operators and vendors refused to disclose the information, citing contractual obligations, and local authorities said they didn’t have the information available.
The security risks associated with Huawei equipment also vary, and differ even among close allies in the West. Some capitals argue the real risk of Chinese telecoms equipment is the overreliance on a Chinese firm in an unstable geopolitical situation — much like Europe relied on Russian gas for its energy needs.
But others argue that the risk runs deeper and that China could use Huawei’s access to equipment and data in European mobile networks — especially in areas of critical importance and high sensitivity — to put the West’s security at risk. Huawei has been implicated in a number of high-profile espionage cases, including at the African Union Headquarters.
The Munich Security Conference takes place at the five-star Bayerischer Hof hotel | Ronald Wittek/EPA-EFE
When asked about Huawei’s presence in Munich, Mike Gallagher, a Republican and Chairman of the U.S. House select committee on China, said POLITICO’s findings were “troubling” and “should concern every individual attending the conference.”
The chair of the U.S. Senate intelligence committee, Mark Warner, a Democrat who’s attending the conference, said it was “a timely reminder that we must continue to work with like-minded allies to promote secure and competitively priced alternatives to Huawei equipment.”
U.S. Senate intelligence committee Vice Chair Marco Rubio (Republican, Florida) said U.S. diplomats “should be aware of the risks and take necessary precautions.”
Munich networking
From a 2007 speech by Russia’s Vladimir Putin to U.S. President Joe Biden’s virtual address at the start of his mandate in February 2021, the conference strives to set the global diplomatic and international relations agenda. Its organizers see it as an open space for debating geopolitics and world affairs, with attendees ranging from across the world and an advisory board where Chinese state officials sit alongside Western diplomats and titans of industry.
The conference’s guest list reveals something else too: The gathering is seen as critical by U.S. government officials. This year, the U.S. is sending its largest delegation yet, with Harris flanked by dozens of government officials, security chiefs and congresspeople, including Democrat leader Chuck Schumer, Republican leader Mitch McConnell and others.
For these U.S. attendees — and the Western partners that see eye to eye with the U.S. position on China’s telecoms giant Huawei — the networks around the premises prove troublesome.
An online map on the website of Germany’s telecoms agency, the Bundesnetzagentur, shows 13 locations for masts and antennas surrounding the Hotel Bayerischer Hof. The agency also provides information about which of the country’s three main operators — Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and Telefónica — use which locations.
POLITICO shared photos of seven masts near the hotel with four experts specialized in telecoms radio access network (RAN) equipment. These experts established that at least two were equipped with gear of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.
If a network operator has one mast equipped with Huawei in Munich, it likely equips all masts in the area with the same vendor, two industry insiders said. Operators usually use one provider for larger areas. This means at least one other location is also likely equipped with Huawei gear, the insiders said. Three other locations, including the mast on the roof of the conference venue, are used by an operator using Huawei equipment but those locations are part of infrastructure that is shared by several operators, meaning there’s a chance these are equipped with Huawei gear but it’s unconfirmed.
The findings are in line with recent reports on Germany’s telecoms infrastructure.
Europe’s largest economy is a stronghold for Huawei in the West. A report by boutique telecoms intelligence firm Strand Consult estimated that Germany relies on Chinese technology for 59 percent of its ongoing 5G network deployment. The country already had a massive reliance on Chinese equipment in its 4G network, where Strand estimated Huawei accounts for 57 percent.
In February 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden delivered remarks at the virtual event hosted by the Munich Security Conference — Biden stressed the United States’ commitment to NATO after four years of the Trump administration undermining the alliance | Pooled photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
“If you look at the percentage of Chinese equipment in Germany, you could say it is the most unsafe country in Europe,” said John Strand, founder of Strand Consult. “Welcome to the Munich Security Conference: We can’t guarantee your security,” he quipped.
Black hole of telecoms intelligence
Establishing with certainty just how many of the 13 masts are equipped with Chinese telecoms gear is extremely difficult. Both German operators and their vendors have a policy to not communicate what equipment they’re using in which locations, citing contractual obligations on confidentiality.
Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone confirmed that they use Huawei in their German antenna networks. Telefónica said they use “a mix of European and international network suppliers” in Germany. Yet, all declined to comment on whether they use Huawei in Munich.
Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei all declined to comment on whether they were providing gear in the greater Munich area, referring questions to the local operators.
Government regulators, too, divulge no details of which suppliers provide gear for certain locations. The Federal Network Agency and the Federal Office for Information Security admitted they don’t know which equipment is fitted to which mast; both referred to the interior ministry for answers. The interior ministry said it “does not usually know which critical components are installed on which radio mast in detail.”
The Hotel Bayerischer Hof forwarded questions about mobile infrastructure on its roof to the security conference’s organizers.
The Munich Security Conference itself said in a statement: “As a matter of principle, we do not comment on the exact details of the infrastructure used for the main conference in Munich. We are in close contact with all relevant authorities in order to secure the conference venue, the participants and the digital space accordingly.”
The Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) does provide its own security networks for official events, but the Munich Security Conference is “outside the responsibility of the BSI,” the BSI said in an email.
Germany’s telecoms ambiguity
Through its 5G equipment it is feasible for Huawei to spy on users of a network or to disrupt communications as the very design of 5G makes it harder to monitor security, the head of the U.K.’s intelligence service MI6, Alex Younger, said to an audience in his second public speech.
But John Lee, director of the consultancy East-West Futures and an expert on Chinese digital policy, said it’s “not a clear cut technical case” as to whether Huawei equipment in current telecoms networks represents a material security risk.
“Some non-Western countries are proceeding to upgrade their telecoms infrastructure with Huawei as a key partner,” Lee said. “This is still mainly a political issue of how much suspicion is placed on the ambitions of the Chinese state and its relationship with Chinese companies.”
In an effort to coordinate a common approach to vendors, the EU developed “5G security toolbox” guidelines in 2019 and 2020 to mitigate security risks in networks. Some major European countries, including France, have imposed hard restrictions for their operators, including by limiting the use of “high-risk vendors” — a term widely understood across Europe to be Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE — in certain strategic geographic areas.
In Germany, however, policymakers took years to agree on their framework for 5G security. In April 2021 — more than a year after the EU’s joint plan came out — it passed measures that allowed the government to intervene on operators’ contracts with Chinese vendors.
But those interventions haven’t barred the use of Huawei in certain geographical areas yet.
And the interior ministry — which has veto power to ban or recall certain components if they see them as an “impairment of public order or safety” — hasn’t intervened much either, a ministry spokesperson said via email.
Up till now, the spokesperson said, specific orders to cut Huawei from German networks “have not been issued.”
Alex Ward, Maggie Miller and Tristan Fiedler contributed reporting.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 8, 2023
Xinjiang governor cancels EU visit amid Uyghur abuse blowback

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BRUSSELS — The governor of the Xinjiang region in China has canceled his controversial trip to Paris and Brussels, three people with knowledge of his plan told POLITICO.
The cancelation of Erkin Tuniyaz’s tour followed widespread concerns from lawmakers and activists that Europe would be rolling out the red carpet for the man in charge of the Chinese region where extreme measures against the Uyghur Muslim community amounted to what the U.N. calls potential crimes against humanity.
News of the trip being called off was relayed to people invited to his reception parties planned by Chinese diplomats in France and Belgium. “Due to scheduling reasons … [the event] is postponed,” according to an email sent to the EU guests in Brussels, the text of which was seen by POLITICO.
The one sent to invitees in Paris cited “an important domestic agenda.” Those sharing the information with POLITICO did so on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the Xinjiang governor’s trip publicly.
An emailed inquiry from POLITICO to the Chinese embassy in London, where Tuniyaz was supposed to begin his tour on Monday, was not answered. It remains unclear whether he will still go to London.
POLITICO reported on his planned trip to Brussels last week following a report by the Guardian on his London visit. It later emerged that he was also scheduled to go to Paris.
Critics questioned the British Foreign Office and the EU foreign policy arm for an initial plan to invite Tuniyaz for meetings during his trip. Some threatened legal action against him while he’s on European soil. The EU later defended its decision, saying they turned down Beijing’s requests to meet more senior EU officials.
The Chinese foreign ministry didn’t confirm Tuniyaz’s initial trip plan.

On the other hand, it announced that the Chinese foreign policy chief, Wang Yi, will be visiting Russia and four EU countries: France, Germany, Italy and Hungary. He’s also expected to speak at the Munich Security Conference. This will be Wang’s first trip to Europe since his promotion from foreign minister to the Communist Party Politburo late last year.
In the meantime the EU is expected to relaunch the human rights dialogue with China later this month, the first time since Beijing imposed sanctions on European diplomats, lawmakers and scholars in 2020, according to an EU official on foreign policy.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 8, 2023
What cold war? U.S. trade with China hits new high

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While some of the increase in last year’s trade figures may be a result of historic levels of inflation, the figures remain eye opening, particularly considering the years-long U.S. tariff campaign on Chinese imports and new efforts to stop the flow of U.S. tech to Beijing. And they demonstrate just how intertwined the U.S. and China remain, commercially at least, despite efforts to effectively “decouple” their economies.
“The decisions of consumers and businesses so far have been more powerful than governments,” said Ed Gresser, former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics. “Tariffs are basically a form of taxation. They have an influence on trade flows, but they don’t have the overwhelmingly powerful influence, or at least they haven’t so far.”
After years of steadily rising imports from China, former President Donald Trump launched a tit-for-tat trade war in 2018 that led to tariffs on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. That was driven initially by concerns over Chinese trade practices that forced American companies to turn over valuable intellectual property, but the original purpose was soon lost.
Beijing retaliated by hitting around $100 billion of U.S. products, and most of the duties imposed by both sides still remain in place two years into the Biden administration.
Trump justified a number of his trade actions in the name of national security, a trend that has continued during the Biden administration, especially in the form of export controls aimed at keeping the most sensitive U.S. technology away from China’s military.
That reflects concern over Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal of reuniting China and Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing has long viewed as part of its territory and whose strategic position would help the Chinese military dominate the region.
Still, despite talk of “decoupling” from China, U.S. imports of Chinese goods increased to $538.8 billion in 2022, only slightly less than the record set in 2018. The U.S. also exported a record $153.8 billion worth of goods to China last year.
The gap between exports and imports in trade with China was $382.9 billion in 2022, which was also the second bilateral trade deficit highest on record.

A large share of the U.S. exports to China are agricultural goods, putting farmers on the frontline of any efforts to sever or scale back trade relations.
“I think decoupling from China would be a terrible mistake,” John Bode, president & CEO of the Corn Refiners Association and a member of the Farmers for Free Trade Coalition, told reporters recently. “What needs to happen is a strategic approach to managing the relationship so that strategically sensitive information is protected.”
That seems the more likely course at the moment, despite the current diplomatic uproar over a Chinese spy balloon discovered flying over U.S. territory and similar episodes — former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August — that have strained the relationship.
A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group forecasts trade between the U.S. and China to decrease by $63 billion, or just about 10 percent, through 2031, as companies look to avoid supply chain disruptions by shifting production to less geopolitically risky places such as Mexico, India and countries in Southeast Asia.
Instead of abandoning China completely, many companies and countries are developing “a China-plus-one strategy” to diversify their options, Nikolaus Lang, a managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, said in an interview.
Vietnam, in particular, has benefited as American companies seek to hedge their reliance on the Chinese supply chains in a trend that predates Trump.
Two-way trade between the United States and Vietnam has more than tripled over the past 10 years, reaching a record $127.5 billion in 2022. Most of the growth has been in U.S. imports from Vietnam as companies have shifted production out of China. That has resulted in a U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam that also set a record last year at $116.1 billion.
U.S. trade with the rest of the world also hit a record high in 2022, despite a new wave of protectionism at home and across the globe. It’s a reminder that even as Covid-19 severed supply chains and geopolitical tensions prompted talk of “near-shoring,” the end of globalization may not be as definitive as some have suggested.
“You can see some shifting of sourcing — a little bit less from China and somewhat more from some other sources,” Gresser said. “But you haven’t seen that show up as the U.S. trading less than it used to be. In dollar terms, we’re trading more than we did in the past.”
The 2022 numbers include record imports of $553.3 billion from the European Union, which has complained loudly about new U.S. clean energy and technology subsidies that they fear will hurt their sales to the United States and siphon investment out of Europe.
That could be the case in the future, but it’s still too early to see the impact of the new U.S. policies on the trade data, Lang said.
In fact, imports have also risen as a percentage of the overall U.S. economy in recent years, while exports have dipped in those terms. That may be because companies have had less incentive to export because of strong domestic demand, or it could be that Trump’s tariffs boosted the cost of inputs and made U.S. products more expensive, Gresser said.
The strong U.S. dollar, which increases the costs of American goods for foreign buyers, also is a drag on exports, he added.
Despite that, the United States still had record exports to a number of trading partners, including the EU, China and more than 70 others.
One obvious exception was Russia, which the United States and its allies hit with a number of sanctions after Moscow’s further invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. Two-way U.S.-Russia trade was less than half of the 2021 level, with both imports and exports down sharply from pre-war volumes.
CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correct Ed Gresser’s former title at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 7, 2023
GOP leaders push bipartisan resolution about China balloon incursion

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House Republicans had previously discussed a resolution aimed squarely at President Joe Biden and his handling of the balloon — which POLITICO first reported — as they aimed to put it to a vote perhaps on Tuesday, the same day as his annual State of the Union.
But several members, including Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas), privately lobbied GOP leaders to pivot toward a bipartisan censure of the Chinese spy tactics — a rare issue that both sides unite behind. Since then, the GOP’s draft has changed substantially, according to multiple Democrats, and may now receive agreement from across the aisle.
“My strong recommendation was … This is one of the things you want as a country to appear to be coming together. You don’t want a partisan resolution,” McCaul said. “I think that’s more important than our petty partisan politics.”
The Texas Republican has spoken not just to McCarthy: He’s also in conversations with his counterpart on the Foreign Affairs panel, Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.). He planned to review the language with Meeks later in the evening.
Meeks did not rule out possible Democratic cooperation, depending on the language of the measure — as well as its timing. Few Democrats were interested in a high-profile resolution to land the same day as Biden’s biggest address of the year. That now appears unlikely.
“We’re looking at it. They’ve got something, and there’s dialogue going on. So, we’ll see what happens,” Meeks said, adding that the final resolution could go through the House Armed Services Committee, instead of the Foreign Affairs panel. “Depends upon what it says. Depends upon what the timing is.”
McCarthy and his team are also in the process of setting up a briefing for all members on the Chinese balloon, according to three GOP lawmakers. That briefing is likely to be Thursday, the same day the Senate will receive its briefing, according to a leadership aide.
Lawmakers have also received some information to review in advance in the Capitol’s sensitive compartmented information facility.

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 7, 2023
Disney drops ‘Simpsons’ episode in Hong Kong that mentions forced labor in China

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Disney has pulled an episode of “The Simpsons” that includes a line about “forced labor camps” in China from its streaming platform in Hong Kong.
The episode — first shown in October last year and titled “One Angry Lisa” — features a scene in which Marge Simpson takes a virtual exercise bike class with an instructor in front of a virtual background of the Great Wall of China. The instructor says: “Behold the wonders of China. Bitcoin mines, forced labor camps where children make smartphones, and romance.”
China’s use of forced labor and mass internment camps to control the Muslim Uyghur minority in the Xinjiang region culminated in a U.N. assessment that concluded Beijing’s actions may constitute crimes against humanity, although China rejects any claims of human rights violations in Xinjiang.
The “Simpsons” episode is no longer available on the Disney+ platform in Hong Kong, the Financial Times reported Monday, citing experts on censorship that claim Disney might have removed the episode out of concern for its business in mainland China.
This is the second time the platform has been accused of self-censorship in Hong Kong. In 2021, it reportedly dropped an episode of “The Simpsons” that made reference to Tiananmen Square, the scene of a brutal massacre of pro-democracy protesters in Beijing in 1989.
In response to a request for comment, the Hong Kong government told the FT a film censorship system introduced in 2021, which forbids films from endangering national security, “does not apply to streaming services.” A spokesperson for the government did not comment on whether it had asked Disney to remove the episode.
In recent years, Beijing has cracked down on Hong Kong’s freedoms, sparking mass protests and international criticism.
Disney could not be reached for comment.

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( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

February 6, 2023
Water-wars, China, Kisan sarkar: Telangana CM KCR at meet in Nanded

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Hyderabad: Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) supremo K Chandrashekhar Rao advertised the Telangana model of farmers’ welfare to the farmers of Maharashtra and said that policies like 24/7 power supply and Rythu Bima will be implemented across the country once in power.
He remarked that the farmers of Maharashtra should learn to write and enact laws along with running the plough in their fields.
“My dear farmer brothers, too much time has passed. You have waited enough for the help. Until now, you have run ploughs letting others write. Now, you should get ready not just to run the plough, but also to write and make laws,” he said.
KCR made these remarks at the BRS’ public meeting held at Nanded, Maharashtra. This is BRS’ first public meeting outside Telangana.
“This party was first named TRS and was only present in Telangana. After looking at the situation in the country, we understood that it’s important to bring transformation to the ideology that is ruling this nation. That is why we have decided to work on the national level. BRS is getting support from across the country,” KCR said.
KCR said that in spite of 75 years of independence and successive governments, there is not much change on the ground level. “Water for drinking and irrigation purposes and electricity are not being provided to people. Are the resources not available? he asked.
The BRS chief stated that in spite of several rivers originating and passing through Maharashtra, it’s sad that its farmers are dying in such massive numbers. Taking a dig at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, KCR said that only Mann ki Baat is available to people but not basic essentials.
The BRS supremo said that Maharashtra is seeing the most number of farmer suicides in the country and it’s extremely sad. “Please think. When will someone die by suicide? When all the routes in life come to an end, people in distress die by suicide. Why are farmers, who are feeding this country, who are toiling day and night, forced to die by suicide?’ he asked.

On water wars in India
The Telangana CM also bought up how “wars” between states over water were being encouraged when there was adequate availability of it to irrigate every acre of land in India.
“Why are water wars between states being encouraged when there is adequate water to irrigate every acre of land in India?” he asked.
“1 lakh 40 thousand tmcs of rainfall occurs in this country. Half of this water turns into steam through the process of evaporation. The remaining 70-75 thousand TMC of clean water flows in rivers.
We are using only 21 thousand TMC of water. The remaining 50,000 TMCs of water is wasted and ends up in the seas. These are the statistics released by the central government. Leaders are joking if 50 thousand tmacs of water is flowing into seas. There is no drinking water in many places,” said KCR.
The CM further added that he found it surprising to see the situation in Maharashtra. “Many rivers like Godavari, Krishna, Pravara, Purna, Penganga, Wardha, Ghata Prabha, Manjira, Bhima, Pranahita, Indrawati flow from here. Why is there a shortage of water in Maharashtra, which has huge water resources? Who are the factors for this? Please think about this,” he said.
Taking a swipe at the grand old party, he said that the Congress ruled India for 54 years out of 75 years of independent India. BJP ruled for 16 years. “Leaders like VP Singh, Chandrasekhar, Deve Gowda ruled for a year, a year and a half and eight months and left. In a period of 75 years only Congress and BJP ruled for 70 years. These two parties are the cause of this country’s misery,” he added.
“Geographically America is two and a half times bigger than us. But they have only 29 percent of cultivable land. China is one and a half times bigger than us. But the arable land is only 16 percent. India alone has 50 percent of arable land in the entire world. The total geographical area of India is 83 crore acres. Out of this 41 crore acres of land is cultivable. These are not the figures I am telling but the figures calculated by the central government itself.
On China
Commenting on India’s neigbour China, KCR said the Make in India initiative brought by Prime Minister Modi has become “Joke in India”.
“Chinese bazaars are popping up in every small town in the country. The manja of butterflies, Diwali firecrackers, Holi colors, Diwali lamps, the idols of Lord Ganesha that we worship and our national flag come from China. If Make in India was properly implemented, Indian bazaars would have fared better. But wherever you go, Chinese bazaars are found,” he further said.
“Even the average goods train speed in India is 24 kmph, way behind 120 kmph in China,” he said.
Rao also noted that India has 361 billion tonnes of coal reserves, enough to provide country’s energy needs for the next 125 years. “Yet we are privatising the power sector,” he said.
The CM further remarked that Maharashtra itself has huge coal resources but there is no electricity.
KCR said that for the first time in the history of India, his party has pushed forward the theme of ‘Ab ki baar kisan sarkar’ keeping BRS’ central theme around farmers’ welfare. “Please go tonight to your villages and discuss this. India is a country of buddhi jeevi (wise), not buddu (fools),” he said.
The BRS supremo further remarked that when the time came, the greatest of leaders were overthrown by people very easily. “When the emergency was enforced, Jai Prakash Narayan’s movement made people overthrow such big leaders,” he remarked.
KCR said that the reason for the country’s current situation is due to the politics of the BJP and Congress. “They keep blaming each other all the time. Both call each other corrupt. One says you are Ambani and the other says you are Adani,” he stated.
Plight of Dalits under the Centre
Commenting on the plight of Dalits and Adivasis, the CM asked how long they had to lag behind owing to the corrupt practices of the two parties.
“We are providing financial assistance of Rs 10 lakh to each family in Telangana state through Dalit Bandhu scheme without any need to return, independent of banks. We will go ahead by implementing this scheme for 175000 Dalit families in Telangana state. If BRS comes to power, every year 25 lakh Dalit families will be given Dalit Bandhu at the rate of Rs 10 lakh,” he added.
“I will do my best to strengthen BRS by undertaking tours in all parts of Maharashtra like West Maharashtra, Vidarbha, North Maharashtra. Jai Maharashtra. Jai Bharat. Jai Hind,” concluded KCR.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 5, 2023
China confirms ‘unintended’ entry of airship into US airspace

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Beijing: A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed the “unintended” entry of a “civilian” airship into US airspace due to “force majeure”.
According to previous media reports, a Chinese unmanned airship has been recently spotted in the US airspace.
The spokesperson said in a statement that the airship is from China, noting it is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes.
Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course, Xinhua news agency reported, citing the spokesperson.
“The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into U.S. airspace due to force majeure,” said the spokesperson, adding the Chinese side will continue communicating with the US side and “properly handle this unexpected situation caused by force majeure”.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 4, 2023