The 9-person stage drama in Chicago that won’t end on Election Day

Rahm Emanuel couldn’t escape a runoff either when he ran for reelection in 2015 in a four-man mayor’s race.

So without clearing the field before Election Day, Lightfoot is facing three main threats: former public schools CEO Paul Vallas to her right, Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson to her left, and Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García fuzzily bouncing around in between with Lightfoot.

One new wrinkle this year is that voters are coming out stronger: 193,076 people have voted early, as of Saturday — outpacing the 113,398 who turned out at that point in the race four years ago.

But this is Chicago, so race is another key factor. And it’s a complex one for Lightfoot, whose base among Black voters — particularly Black women — may splinter unevenly among the five other Black candidates. Vallas is white, and García is Latino. All the candidates declared themselves as Democrats.

“Chicago is the epicenter of racial politics. Any political contest in Chicago is driven by turnout, especially turnout among racial demographics,” said Collin Corbett, a center-right political strategist who isn’t aligned with any of the mayoral candidates but whose firm is polling the race. “Lightfoot needs a really strong turnout among Black voters.”

Vallas is believed to have secured another key voting bloc — white residents on the city’s North Side, an area Lightfoot dominated four years ago.

A former school administrator in Chicago, New Orleans and Philadelphia, Vallas has run unsuccessfully for other public offices over the years, including mayor and governor. His campaign theme this time, focusing on public safety, has resonated with voters who dismissed Vallas in previous elections, including in the 2019 mayor’s race.

“This isn’t the race anyone expected,” said Corbett, noting how García was considered a frontrunner a few months ago.

The congressman, who took Emanuel to a runoff in 2015, started campaigning late, waiting until he won reelection to Congress before launching his second bid for mayor.

Lightfoot didn’t waste time airing TV ads attacking García’s connections to Chicago machine politicians and for accepting a donation from indicted crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried.

The broadsides seemed to work. But in shifting support away from García, fellow progressive Johnson gained momentum. Now Johnson is getting hit from Lightfoot and other candidates over his past comments about his support for “defunding” police.

Amid this tussle, Vallas, who has the backing of the city’s Fraternal Order of Police, surged with his message about crime being out of control. Lightfoot sees it as stoking fears.

García has a long history of helping build a bench of Latino candidates in Illinois. And Johnson is backed by the Chicago Teachers Union, both in endorsements and financially. He also works for the union.