Biden and Trudeau to mix thorny issues with niceties

“This visit is about taking stock of what we’ve done, where we are and what we need to prioritize for the future,” Kirby said.

Once Biden touches down in Canada, the president and first lady Jill Biden will head over to the Prime Minister’s home at Rideau Cottage for evening drinks. Friday’s schedule is loaded with a series of bilateral meetings, Biden’s speech to Parliament, and a joint news conference.

Here’s a rundown of what the two leaders are expected to discuss behind closed doors:

NORAD

Both nations have lagged in modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command as overseas countries develop new capabilities, such as Russia’s long-range cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons. The Chinese spy balloon and a series of unidentified flying objects over both air spaces last month has put pressure on both leaders to address the evolving air threats.

“Both the U.S. administration and our government do want to make sure that during this visit, we have a really deep conversation about North American security and NORAD in particular,” Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman said on CBC News over the weekend.

The situation also continues to evolve, Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, said in an interview. If both Sweden and Finland join NATO, the Arctic becomes a “frontline between Russia Arctic and NATO Arctic,” he said.

“The dynamic is looking more conflictual all the time, and Canada’s underinvestment in the Arctic is starting to pinch,” Sands said.

Biden will likely praise Canada’s commitment to modernizing NORAD through its recent decision to buy 88 F-35 fighter jets to help protect North American airspace, Sands said. But David Cohen, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, suggested over the weekend in a TV interview that the U.S. wants to know about the size and timing of the commitments Canada has made to modernizing NORAD.

But Hillman, responding to Cohen’s comments in an interview with POLITICO, noted the responsibility is not Canada’s alone.

“Some of the investments that we’re making, these aren’t just things that you pluck off the shelf and implement. This is highly new and sensitive technology that is being developed and being implemented,” she said. “So if the suggestion is, let’s try and go faster — that’s a message I’ve heard before and I think that’s a message we certainly want to talk about with the Americans.”

Ukraine and defense spending

Late last year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Canada, which has the second largest Ukrainian population in the world, to lead post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine — to begin organizing with other countries and talking to agencies about money and specific needs in the years to come. Biden will likely check in on Trudeau’s progress.

Canada’s defense spending will also be addressed, Cohen suggested over the weekend. He noted that the country has stepped up its support to Ukraine in terms of military equipment, but that defense remains a top priority for both countries.

“It’s important for the United States. It’s important for Canada. And so I think how we fund our 21st century defense efforts, you know, in order to confront 21st century threats will be a topic of conversation,” Cohen said.

Haiti

Haiti has continued to be hit with one crisis after another, from gang violence, civil and political unrest to a resurgence of cholera. Though the Biden administration has drafted a U.N. Security Council resolution proposing a “non-U.N. international security assistance mission” to support the island nation, the U.S. doesn’t want to lead this effort. Many other countries have been hesitant to get involved.

The leaders are expected to discuss a path forward, Sands said. For months, the White House has suggested it wants Canada to take the lead in a multi-national military intervention to bring stability to the country. But Ottawa has refrained from committing, with Trudeau noting last month that Canada’s response in Haiti is being guided by lessons and “difficult experience” from past interventions.

Canada has utilized sanctions as a way to stem the financial flows of Haitian elites and gangs driving violence in the country. Trudeau has also sent naval vessels to help the Haitian National Police patrol the coast.

“The Canadians have worked on Haiti and worked with Haiti for so long, that they are under no illusions that this is going to be a fun assignment or an easy assignment,” Sands said. “And just year after year, crisis after crisis, I think a lot of the countries that do pay attention to Haiti are at a loss.”

Immigration

Among the thornier issues is immigration — a growing problem for both leaders. Just as the U.S. southern border remains a vexing political issue for Biden, the influx of migrants is also putting pressure on Canada.

Canadian leaders appear interested in discussing the Safe Third Country Agreement, a treaty the U.S. and Canada signed in 2004 that requires asylum seekers to make their claim in the first country they arrive in. Under the agreement, asylum seekers can be turned back to the United States if passing through an official border entry.

But migrants have found a loophole through unofficial crossing points like Roxham Road, a small, well-traveled road that straddles the Canada-U.S. border between Quebec and New York. Quebec Premier François Legault has hammered Trudeau, calling on the prime minister to raise the issue with Biden.

The U.S. is also expected to raise the root causes of irregular migration, Cohen said over the weekend.

“I think a Safe Third Country Agreement can easily be a part of that discussion, and how a revised Safe Third Country Agreement could help bring under control some of the underlying root causes of irregular migration,” he said.

Trudeau on Wednesday said the U.S. and Canada have been discussing the issue for months, and he hopes the leaders have an announcement “soon.”

China

Media reports have claimed that China meddled in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections, running interference operations against leaders they felt were hostile toward China.

Trudeau’s government is at the center of a still evolving controversy surrounding these allegations. As concerns first arose, Trudeau wrote off questions about the results as election denialism, drawing comparisons to the U.S. and Jan. 6. Earlier this month, under growing pressure, he appointed a special investigator to advise the government how to probe the alleged election interference.

“Trudeau doesn’t want to talk about it, but I think if he’s smart, he might just ask Biden, ‘What do we know? Are they messing in your elections? What are we going to do for the next election?’” Sands said. “Because Trudeau will have one, possibly in ‘24, certainly in ‘25. And the U.S. has big elections coming up, too. So having a conversation about how we shore up our democracy is relevant.”

Trade and critical minerals

Some trade issues are expected to come up, such as how the United States intends to comply with a dispute settlement panel ruling against its strict interpretation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement’s strict rules of origin. Canada and Mexico won that case late last year and could impose retaliation on potentially billions of dollars of American exports if the three countries don’t work out a negotiated settlement.

There is also a longtime dispute over U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties on softwood lumber and a spat of Canadian measures. Among them, restrictions on dairy imports, a proposed digital service tax and pending legislation that the U.S. Trade Representative says could impact digital streaming services and online news sharing and discriminate against U.S. businesses.

But the countries are working together on a collaborative basis to reduce supply vulnerabilities in key areas like critical minerals, which will be needed in large quantities for electric vehicles, solar panels and other clean energy technologies intended to curb reliance on fossil fuels.

Climate issues and the Inflation Reduction Act

The U.S. and Canada have committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, but both nations continue to use more oil and gas than they would like, Sands said.

The U.S.’ Inflation Reduction Act will also be on the table. IRA subsidies for electric vehicle consumers have been written to include Canada, but when it comes to batteries, Canada has joined South Korea and Europe in expressing frustration that IRA subsidies are focused on bringing manufacturing to the United States — therefore pushing Canada to do more or risk losing this industry.

Another issue that could pop up is a Canadian proposal to bury nuclear waste near the Great Lakes. A group of U.S. lawmakers who live around that region released a resolution ahead of Biden’s trip, urging the president to address the issue during his meetings with Trudeau.

“Storing hazardous nuclear waste in our shared waterways threatens the drinking water of millions of people in the United States and Canada and jeopardizes jobs in the fishing, boating and tourism industries,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) said in a statement. “I urge President Biden to address Canada’s plan to permanently bury nuclear waste in the Great Lakes basin as he meets with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.”

Doug Palmer, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Joseph Gedeon contributed to this report.