Brussels Playbook: Macron ‘unfollows’ Washington — Ukraine’s spring surprise — ChatGPT meets Europe

GOOD MORNING and happy Easter! This is Nick Vinocur, bringing you Playbook from an unusually sunny Brussels. We sometimes poke fun at the grisaille around here, but this week the country outdid itself: glorious sunshine for days in the Ardennes, where your author spent a family holiday. I heartily recommend a visit to the Grottes de Han — a sprawling cave system southwest of Charleroi that was an unforgettable sight for me and my 4-year-old daughter. Strongly recommend. As you enjoy the final hours of the long weekend, here’s the news …

DRIVING THE DAY: MACRON AND CHINA       

MACRON INTERVIEW PROMPTS OUTCRY: Speaking to POLITICO and other media outlets on his way back from last week’s trip to China, French President Emmanuel Macron gave an interview that’s raising big questions about the transatlantic relationship, Taiwan and the concept of “strategic autonomy” for the EU.

ICYMI: Yes, it’s one of those Macron interviews. Read the full story here (or here en français) by our Editor-in-Chief Jamil Anderlini and Senior France Correspondent Clea Caulcutt. Here are the key lines …

On strategic autonomy: Macron emphasized the need for Europe to develop independent capabilities that would enable the EU to become the world’s “third superpower” — alongside the United States and China, presumably. The “greatest risk” Europe faces, he said, is that the bloc “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevent it from building strategic autonomy.”

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On the transatlantic relationship: Macron said “the paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers.”

On Taiwan, which the US has pledged to defend: “The question Europeans need to answer,” Macron said, is “is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction.” 

Rubio weighs in: In response to Macron’s comments, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, dropped a video in which he says: “If our allies’ position is, in fact, Macron speaks for all of Europe, and their position now is they are not going to pick sides between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, maybe we shouldn’t be picking sides either. Maybe we should basically say we’re going to focus on Taiwan and the threats that China poses, and you guys handle Ukraine.”

He added: “So we need to find out: Does Macron speak for Macron or does Macron speak for Europe?”

That question was zooming around European capitals Sunday night, with diplomats texting my colleague Stuart Lau to share reactions. 

Shade: “It’s hard to see how the EU was strengthened by the visits” of Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China last week, wrote one EU diplomat who was not authorized to speak on the record. “China did not move one inch on Russia/Ukraine and created contrast between the two European leaders, even appearing to get an audience for its view on security in the Taiwan Straits.”

Sari Arho Havrén, adjunct professor at the George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies focusing on China, told Playbook that “Macron is giving Xi exactly what Xi wanted: trade to make China’s economy stronger, but also dividing and making Europe weaker in Beijing’s eyes.”

On Macron’s ‘superpower’ comment, she added: “Europe lacks pretty much all superpower attributes apart from the big single market.”

Noah Barkin, senior adviser for Rhodium Group and a visiting senior fellow at GMF, wrote in: “Macron is espousing a vision of the world that is not shared in other European capitals. In doing so, he risks dividing Europe and complicating relations with the most transatlantic U.S. administration that we have seen in many years.”

French pushback: France’s former ambassador to the U.S. disagreed. In response to a tweet questioning France’s commitment to Taiwan, Gérard Araud wrote: “First, he [Macron] didn’t say that. Secondly, our alliance doesn’t cover Asia.”

Playbook is getting a case of déjà vu. Doesn’t this feel a bit like back in 2019 when Macron told the Economist that NATO was experiencing “brain death?” Or when, following the AUKUS spat, he withdrew France’s ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia? 

As in those episodes, Macron is broadcasting France’s independence from a U.S.-led alliance. But unlike other examples where the issue may have been more symbolic, this one has a clear question at its core: Is Europe’s alliance with the United States limited to Europe and its neighborhood, or does it extend to the Asia-Pacific region?

Now read this: Macron got a rockstar welcome in Guangzhou, where he fielded (carefully selected) questions from students at Sun Yat-sen University. “His star turn and spontaneous popularity also contrasted with China’s wooden communist leaders, none of whom have even half the charisma of Macron and who are generally only greeted with enthusiasm when it is in the job description of the crowd,” Jamil and Clea write. Ouch.

RUSSIAN WAR LATEST       

‘SPRING IS COMING’ — UKRAINE TOUTS ‘SURPRISE’ AMID US INTEL LEAK: In a slickly produced video published Sunday, Ukraine’s defense ministry hints at an upcoming operation that would put Western training and supplies to use in its war with Russia. Watch the video, titled “Spring is coming,” here.

Intel dump: It’s no surprise that Ukraine has been preparing a counter-offensive of some type. But the video — coupled with reports on a massive dump of U.S. intelligence that’s been circulating online for weeks, but only recently picked up by big media outlets — seems to remove any “if” on whether an offensive will take place. What’s unknown is “how” and “when.”

What’s in the leaked docs: The reports go into substantial detail about the state and capabilities of Ukraine’s armed forces, as well as the composition of battle groups. To wit: the composition in armor of one brigade, the 82nd, decked out with the best Western militaries have to offer. They also show how deeply U.S. intelligence has penetrated Russian command-and-control centers — warning Ukraine of exact targets for upcoming strikes. (Playbook has not reviewed the documents ourselves.)

Spying, much? Yet the leak brings up awkward questions about U.S. spying, particularly when it comes to allies. One leaked document obtained by Reuters concerns deliberations among South Korean officials about sales of artillery shells to the United States, which the officials were concerned would be sent to Ukraine. Based on “signals intelligence” — aka intercepts — the document prompted Seoul to say it wanted to discuss the “issues raised” with the U.S.

Rings a bell: If this feels familiar, that’s because it’s reminiscent of Edward Snowden’s massive dump of U.S. National Security Agency documents in 2013, which irked Europeans. This time around, EU leaders are spared, but Ukraine’s military top brass is not, according to the New York Times, which first reported on the trove of intel. So far, there is no firm indication of who carried out the original leak — the document lay unnoticed for weeks on Discord, until a user posted it on Telegram and journalists became aware.

Tail risk: At the very least, the leaks are likely to make the Americans much more cautious on how they share intelligence, including with allied countries. That’s not ideal in a crucial planning stage, heading into a likely spring offensive.

What the leaks don’t say is when Ukraine’s counter-offensive will take place, or how it will sustain its pace given the high rates of shells expended each day on the front. Another report out over the weekend, again from the Times, casts doubt on Europe’s ability to replenish Ukraine’s supply of shells at anywhere near the rate at which they are being used.

IN OTHER NEWS       

ESTONIA’S KALLAS SECURES COALITION: About a month after the election, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of the center-right Reform Party has reached an agreement with the centrist Estonia 200 Party and the Social Democratic Party to form a coalition government. Kallas is expected to keep her job. Laura Kayali has a write-up.

EU RISKS LOSING ENERGY ALLY: Last year’s high-profile gas deal with Azerbaijan was supposed to help the EU wean itself off Russian fossil fuels and keep supplies flowing in the short term. But Brussels’ bid to position itself as a peacemaker in the war-torn South Caucasus, and the eagerness of MEPs to call out human rights abuses, have angered Baku, which says the bloc could be to blame if a new conflict breaks out with neighboring Armenia.

European boots on the ground: “We were hoping for a different scenario with Baku,” a senior EU official admitted after Azerbaijan blasted the 100-strong border monitoring mission dispatched from European countries to Armenia earlier this year. Experts warn that more violence could force Europe to distance itself from the energy-rich nation it had hoped would help it weather Russia’s war on Ukraine. My colleague Gabriel Gavin has written about the dilemma.

RT DECLARED BANKRUPT IN FRANCE: A French court has officially declared Kremlin-backed media outlet RT France bankrupt, the company’s President Xenia Fedorova announced on Friday. In March last year, the EU banned Russian government-funded media like Sputnik and RT from broadcasting in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Laura Kayali has the story.

CHATGPT FACES REGULATORY WHIRLWIND: The world’s most famous chatbot has set itself up for a rough ride with Europe’s powerful privacy watchdogs, my colleagues Clothilde Goujard and Gian Volpicelli report. Italy imposed a temporary ban last month on the grounds that it could violate Europe’s privacy rulebook — but that’s just the start of its likely troubles. Prepare to see headaches across the bloc, as the cutting-edge technology is irking governments over risks ranging from data protection to misinformation, cybercrime, fraud and cheating on tests.

BRUSSELS CORNER       

WHAT’S OPEN ON EASTER MONDAY? Not much. If you’re in Belgium, expect most shops to be closed today. But if you’re in a pinch, the Delhaize and Carrefour stores that are usually open on Sundays will be operating, as will “guard duty” pharmacies.

DELHAIZE STRIKE UPDATE: If you’re like me, you’ve been experiencing the ongoing Delhaize strikes first hand. Workers have been carrying out industrial action after the company announced it was going to turn its stores into franchises, operated by independent buyers, leading to the loss of an estimated 280 jobs (though the company is touting 72 new roles), according to l’Echo. Forty-six Delhaize stores remain closed across Belgium following court-ordered reopenings.

ICYMI — WHERE TO GO EASTER EGG HUNTING TODAY: Comic Art Museum … BELvue Museum … Chalet Robinson … Underground treasure hunt at Coudenberg Palace until April 16.

BIRTHDAYS: MEP Magdalena Adamowicz; Former MEPs Antony Hook, Geoffrey Van Orden, Luis Garicano, Florent Marcellesi and Lorenzo Fontana; Chris Heron from Eurometaux; European Commission’s David Knight; Leader of the Democratic Party of Moldova Pavel Filip, a former PM.

THANKS TO: Stuart Lau and our producer Jeanette Minns.

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