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Tag: Trudeau

  • Trudeau’s Hobson’s choice – Canada India relations

    Trudeau’s Hobson’s choice – Canada India relations

    The ongoing diplomatic tensions between India and Canada has taken the center stage both in Canada and India. The war of nerves continues without resolution, with a series of tit for tat responses. Leaders on both sides appear to have firmed up their stances as the relations between two key democratic countries in the world flounders.


    At the center of this rift is the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey in Canada’s British Columbia earlier in June this year. He was a plumber by day and a Khalistani terrorist by night who had active links to Pakistani and Canadian Intelligence agencies. The man was wanted by Indian security agencies for several years now, on multiple charges that included terrorism, narcotics, murder, and fake passport rackets.


    Can two major liberal democracies snap their relations over the death of an otherwise small time plumber cum terrorist who was unknown to Canadian public? Had Canada not gone public with its accusations, the matter would have had a greater chance of resolution by prudent heads via bilateral negotiations behind closed doors in Ottawa or New Delhi.


    There was further escalation when Prime Minister Trudeau, while addressing Parliament had the chutzpah to ask India to cooperate with them in the on-going investigations, thereby preemptively declaring his presumptions of guilt on part of India. This is no diplomatese or for that matter able statesmanship.


    In a further embarrassment to the Canadians, media reports have pointed out the plain incompetence of Canadian security agencies who have made no headway in the murder investigations even after three months, despite the availability of CCTV footages and eye witness accounts.


    Its appeal for support from its Five Eyes partners had at best, a cautious response from the US, while others mouthed carefully measured statements but offered no direct condemnation of India. Canada’s diplomatic intransigence pushed itself into a corner thus magnifying a problem that it created in the first place.


    The Canadian government as well as media – electronic media in particular – have been actively shepherding the narrative on the row to one of freedom of expression and Canada’s sense of justice and propriety in international conduct.


    The reality of course is at variance with Mr. Trudeau’s public posturing. The real problem, between the two countries is the shelter, support and sustenance provided to anti-India terrorists who are seeking to break away territory from India.


    The Canadian government has been supporting anti-India groups and individuals for many decades now. In recent years however, Canada under Mr. Trudeau, has crossed the diplomatic red line on several occasions – by repeatedly commenting on India’s domestic politics and turning a blind eye to terrorists putting up posters to kill Hindus and Indian diplomats in Canada.


    Slicing through the crafted diplomatic veneer of Prime Minister Trudeau’s “… rule of law, country and the protection of our citizens and defense of our sovereignty are fundamental…”, speech in Parliament, we continue to see Canada’s serial duplicity in mouthing something and doing the exact opposite. How come Canada’s sovereignty is more sacrosanct than India’s territorial integrity?


    So that explains the anxiety of the Trudeau administration and major sections of its media to spin doctor a narrative far removed from the real reasons for the current state of Indo-Canadian affairs. The Indian media, on the other hand, has been level headed and reported the unfolding episodes by bringing in opinion makers from both countries to the table.


    The fragility of Trudeau’s ruling coalition and hence his compulsions to pander to extremist Sikh groups that spearhead the National Democratic Party of Canada are well understood. But to jeopardize Canada’s key international relationship, particularly during a less favorable economic cycle, for the sake of political expediency only smacks of myopia and political immaturity.


    Prime Minister Modi on the other hand, runs a very strong and stable government and enjoys the loyal support of almost 80% of its vast populace. India under Modi today is of a different mettle. Lot of quiet transformations are already in place – be it bilateral dealings or securing India’s vital interests. As a powerful economy that is leading the resurgence of global economies, it has over the years invested and upgraded itself to deal with existential threats from far and near.


    Unlike the past, the Indian security establishment is now more than willing and capable of delivering a “global solution to global threats” to the safety, security, and territorial integrity of India. Furthermore, India has demonstrated the political will to execute it.


    The problem is that Canada, like many other countries, has discovered much to its chagrin, that it is no longer business as usual with India. India is no more the worlds’ whipping boy who will take state duplicity lying down when it comes to its security and safety of its citizens.


    It must be noted here that in official communiques, the government of India while rejecting Trudeau’s statements, has sought evidence of Indian hand in the murder of the plumber-terrorist. India knows fully well that no intelligence apparatus of a nation worth its salt will share its intelligence on matters of such high visibility that would compromise its assets.


    It is worth mentioning that India has not publicly denied its hands in getting rid of threats to its territorial integrity. As the Indian foreign minister Dr S Jayshankar said, ”political convenience cannot give way to terrorism”. But if Canada or any other country would choose to do business with India in its old-fashioned ways, there will certainly be a “global response to global terror”. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has a Hobson’s choice on his hand.

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    An article by Naagesh Padmanaban, a US based Professional. Author can be reached at naageshwaranp@hotmail.com

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the TheNewsCaravan

  • Is Justin Trudeau ready for the fight? 

    Is Justin Trudeau ready for the fight? 

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    Poilievre won’t physically be at the convention, but nor will he be far — fuel for chit chat at boozy receptions and the motivation for any strategizing that takes place. All of it forces a question, whether said out loud or not: Is Justin Trudeau ready for the fight?

    The prime minister will make his case in a headline speech that opens the convention on Thursday night.

    Greg MacEachern, a Liberal lobbyist and former Parliament Hill staffer, sums up the state of play using a well-worn adage most recently deployed by President Joe Biden at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner: “Don’t compare me to the all-mighty, compare me to the alternative.” Top-line figures in a new poll from Abacus Data — 33 percent Conservatives, 31 percent Liberals — suggest an election today would be tight. Factor in the margin of error and the race between Liberals and Conservatives is a statistical tie.

    But it’s the trends below the surface that should give party rank and file pause as they chatter away in the bars and backrooms of Ottawa. The negatives have worsened since the 2021 election: For the PM. For the government. And on the direction of the country.

    Average voters appear to have lost the thread the Liberals are spinning.

    “I don’t get a sense that they have a clear understanding of exactly what the government’s plan is,” says Abacus pollster David Coletto. “They probably hear things about battery plants and investments in a green economy — and I would suspect most people support that kind of thing, but they don’t see a connection between those specific events and outcomes and the broader kind of story that the Liberals want to be able to tell.”

    Overall, signs point to a likely Conservative win unless something changes.

    Helming the party for roughly a decade, Trudeau has accumulated his share of baggage, something that would typically raise obvious questions of succession.

    There was his family’s holiday visit in 2016 to the island in the Bahamas owned by the Aga Khan. There was the time he allegedly pressured his justice minister to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to a Quebec-based engineering giant that faced bribery charges. There was the bombshell publication later in 2019 of photos in which Trudeau wore blackface.

    More and more recently, Poilievre and his Conservatives are asking whether the three-term government is deserving of another.

    But so far, few Liberals are talking openly about ending the Trudeau era and starting fresh. Broach the point with insiders, and they’ll all tell you the same thing.

    “Justin Trudeau is a huge asset for the Liberal Party,” says MacEachern.

    Even so, the convention also offers future leadership aspirants a chance to gladhand and expand their support base. Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister and rumored contender in a race down the road, is hosting a reception at a trendy bar.

    She is also the opening act for Trudeau’s speech on Thursday evening, where insiders expect a rousing call-to-action to energize the base.

    As the convention opened, the Hill was abuzz with a Radio-Canada story that claimed the Prime Minister’s Office told another potential aspirant, Defense Minister Anita Anand, to slow her roll.

    How the party and its leaders communicate their message will be a constant refrain on and off the convention floor. The governing party has yet to earn much credit on some of the big issues it has shoveled money into fixing — the cost of living, child care, housing and health, for example.

    The gathering poses plenty of opportunities to re-tune.

    Dan Arnold, a former head of polling in the Prime Minister’s Office who has attended every party convention since Paul Martin was elected leader in 2003, hails from Alberta — a traditionally weak spot for Liberals.

    He says the confab offers delegates a chance to take their message directly to the party’s powerbrokers. “It is good to have that prairie voice more in people’s faces,” he says, where they can have a “direct conversation in a hospitality suite with somebody in the PMO.”

    There is work to be done in the Prairies.

    Labor Minister Seamus O’Regan reflected on the party’s weakness in western provinces on stage at the Public Policy Forum’s recent Canada Growth Summit. And he elaborated on his remarks about the 2019 federal election in an interview with POLITICO.

    “The Liberal Party was thrown out of Alberta and Saskatchewan. We lost [Cabinet minister] Ralph Goodale in Wascana. That was big. And you really have to ask yourself, ‘Well, what do we do?’ ” he said.

    O’Regan, who served as Canada’s natural resources minister, acknowledges the political challenges of heralding a clean energy transition — especially in Alberta.

    “Workers felt marginalized and patronized. You gotta watch that,” he said. “If you were driven to lower emissions in this country, if you really do believe that Canada can be a leader in this field, then workers are not ‘that thing over there in that part of the country that we’ve got to kind of deal with.’”

    The first in-person convention in four years will also offer delegates an opportunity to formally influence party policy. They’ll debate 36 resolutions, including a pitch to boost annual defense spending to C$32 billion and “massively invest in renovating NORAD infrastructure.”

    Delegates will also debate lowering the voting age to 17 and introducing a guaranteed basic liveable income.

    The government has spent considerable resources responding to the war in Ukraine, countering the Inflation Reduction Act’s green subsidies, and checking off items on the confidence-and-supply deal with the NDP that keeps the minority-status Liberals in power.

    Some backroom chatter will focus on pivoting a reactive policy agenda to a more proactive offer and an election platform.

    Most Liberal delegates despise their freedom-evangelizing foe. But they acknowledge Poilievre’s uncanny ability to raise piles of cash in pursuit of ending Trudeau’s time as prime minister.

    The Conservative leader won’t be near the convention floor, but he’s still going to force some uncomfortable conversations.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Federal workers tell Trudeau to step in to pay and work-from-home dispute

    Federal workers tell Trudeau to step in to pay and work-from-home dispute

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    Striking federal workers in Canada are calling for the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, to get involved in stalled negotiations, as the largest job action in decades enters its 10th day and key government services grind to a halt.

    More than 100,000 employees with Canada’s largest public sector union have been on strike since last week in a battle over wages and the ability to work remotely.

    The strike has disrupted the federal government’s ability to process income tax returns and to issue quarterly payments to low-income Canadians. With taxes due in the coming days, the country’s revenue agency has said it will not delay filing deadlines. Passport and visa processing have also slowed significantly.

    The union and the federal government agree workers should get a raise – but the two sides are divided over how much is fair. The union initially called for 13.5% over three years, as well as contract language that formalizes a universal work-from-home policy. The treasury board has offered a 9% raise over a similar time period, which they say equates to an additional C$6,500 (US$4,800) annually for workers.

    “This government says it cares about restoring services for Canadians, but they seem content to shrug it off and prolong this strike and its impact on Canadians everywhere,” the Public Service Alliance of Canada, the union, said in a recent internal email sent to workers.

    Despite the protracted nature of the strike, 55% of Canadians support federal employees’ right to work from home, according to polling from the Angus Reid Institute, a non-profit public opinion firm.

    In recent days, the union escalated its picket lines by targeting Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s busiest travel hub, as well as attempting to block shipping ports in Vancouver, Montreal and St John’s. Thousands of workers have also picketed on Parliament Hill.

    Despite mounting pressure to end the strike, the treasury board, which oversees public administration, said in a statement it would “not sign agreements that the country cannot afford, nor ones that severely impact our ability to deliver services to Canadians”.

    With talks stalled, union leaders say they have lost confidence in the treasury secretary, Mona Fortier, to break the impasse. Instead, they want Trudeau to take a more hands-on approach.

    “He can either get involved personally and help settle this dispute or he can turn his back on the workers who are striking,” the union president, Chris Aylward, said while visiting striking workers on Parliament Hill. “We’ll be out here for as long as it takes.”

    Trudeau has said he supports the right to collective bargaining.

    “Yes, it’s frustrating to know that Canadians may, as the days come, have more difficulty accessing services, but that’s a motivator for everyone to try and resolve this,” said Trudeau.

    As the strike drags on, the standoff has become increasingly used as prop, with leaders looking to score political points.

    Earlier in the week, the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, sang Frank Sinatra’s New York, New York, criticizing Trudeau’s trip to New York city for meetings. Poilievre was reminded by parliament’s speaker that singing is not permitted in the House of Commons.

    The New Democratic party leader, Jagmeet Singh, who has a deal to support the governing Liberals until 2025, warned his party would not support any legislation that forced workers to abandon their strike.

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    ( With inputs from : www.theguardian.com )

  • Trudeau stumps for democracy in New York — and for his future back home

    Trudeau stumps for democracy in New York — and for his future back home

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    Trudeau’s words echoed U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan who used a major policy address Thursday to point the direction the White House plans to take in the global economy.

    “We’re at a moment now where we need to build capacity to produce the goods and invent the technologies of the future,” Sullivan said at the Brookings Institution. “And we’re going to do that — us plus anyone else who wants to get in on the deal.”

    Trudeau used his speech to relay his big-picture vision of what Canada’s role in a rapidly changing world, repeatedly slagging Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, though not by name.

    No election has been called in Canada, but a quirk of Trudeau’s minority government means one could happen at any time before the next fixed election more than two years away.

    “We’ve been investing in the middle class, not ginning up anger and telling them everything is broken and you need to burn it down,” he said, taking a swipe at his rival’s sloganeering, which has helped Conservatives smash fundraising records in a non-election year.

    Trudeau also mirrored themes raised by President Joe Biden during his address to the House of Commons last month, evoking the truism that the destinies of Canada and the U.S. are intertwined. Just as Biden did in Ottawa, Trudeau took time in New York to address anxieties about a liberal democratic world order under duress following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The prime minister’s three-term government is under fire; critics suggest it’s worn out and unable to deal with new economic and geopolitical crises. Russia’s war and tensions with China have increased the political value of defense and industrial policies — two areas that were not Liberal priorities when they swept into power in 2015.

    A leaked Pentagon assessment recently obtained by The Washington Post claims Trudeau privately told NATO officials that Canada will never meet the alliance’s defense-spending target. On Friday, Trudeau dumped the blame on Conservatives, ignoring the fact his government has been in power for nearly eight years.

    “We need to continue to invest more in defense, among many other things,” the prime minister said. “The previous Conservative government, for all its saber-rattling in our country, managed to drop defense spending to below one percent of our GDP.”

    As a sign of progress, he referenced Canada’s $14.2-billion deal to buy 88 F-35 stealth fighter jets from the United States.

    Trudeau, both during his speech and in lengthy responses to subsequent questions, worked to establish himself as a big-picture thinker and contender in the coming election — whenever it is.

    America is also entering an election season — Biden confirmed his re-election campaign earlier this week.

    Asked if he’s worried about democracy and America’s future, Trudeau replied: “Obviously.”

    He again noted the economies of Canada and the U.S. are interconnected.

    “You guys are the greatest democracy in the world. And right now, it’s not just that it’s being taken for granted by so many of your citizens. It’s actually being devalued to a certain extent. It’s not people’s fault,” he said.

    “The same forces are happening in Canada and elsewhere.”

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Trudeau on U.S. abortion debate: ‘When do we get to stop having to relitigate?’

    Trudeau on U.S. abortion debate: ‘When do we get to stop having to relitigate?’

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    With the battle over the abortion pill in the headlines — the U.S. Supreme Court has maintained access to mifepristone, for now — Trudeau also took to the internet last week to remind the world where he stands.

    “With attacks on reproductive rights around the world, it’s really important that we not take things for granted — that we continue to stand up unequivocally,” he said in a video on social media. “This government will never tell a woman what to do with her body, we are unequivocally and proudly pro-choice and always will be.”

    Earlier in Ottawa, International Development Minister Harjit Sajjan announced a C$195 million investment over the next five years in support of women’s advocacy globally.

    Trudeau caught the alley-oop in New York, telling the crowd of world leaders and activists “there is no place where we’re not seeing attacks on rights.”

    When he was first elected in 2015, Trudeau introduced a gender-balanced Cabinet — a move U.S. President Joe Biden would go on to replicate. “I’m very proud that both of us have Cabinets that are 50 percent women for the first time in history,” Biden boasted in a speech during his visit to Ottawa in March.

    In the wake of the SCOTUS leak and the decision to revoke federal abortion rights in the United States, Trudeau’s government declared Canada open to Americans who needed to travel north to access an abortion.

    “No government, politician, or man should tell a woman what she can and cannot do with her body,” he said after the official ruling in June 2022.

    After Roe v. Wade was overturned, there was speculation Americans would head north. “There’s no reason why we would turn anyone away to receive that procedure here,” Canada’s Families Minister Karina Gould said at the time.

    But there has so far been no influx, says Joyce Arthur, executive director of Abortion Rights Coalition of Canada. “It’s really an option that would only be available for higher income people living near the border,” she said.

    The only border state that has banned abortion is Idaho, she added. “People who have to travel for a procedure are much more likely to travel to another state.”

    The same observation was made by Planned Parenthood Toronto, the largest Planned Parenthood in the country.

    “We haven’t seen an uptick,” said executive director Mohini Datta-Ray. “They would have potentially been non-insured patients but [because of the price tag] it’s not worth the journey.”

    On stage in New York Thursday alongside Jacqueline O’Neill, Canada’s first women, peace and security ambassador, Trudeau insisted Canada has been unequivocal about advocating for women’s equality, at home and abroad.

    The claim was met by a challenge from veteran journalist Lisa Laflamme who was moderating the discussion at the Global Citizen event.

    A 2023 report from Action Canada for Sexual Health and Rights, a nonprofit known also as Planned Parenthood Canada, notes that in 2019 the Trudeau government said it would increase funding for women’s health services worldwide to C$1.4 billion by 2023. It also pledged to boost funds for sexual and reproductive health to C$700 million from C$400 million.

    The report said that while C$489 million of the $700 million budget was spent in 2020-21, “only roughly C$104 million was allocated to programming in support of the neglected areas … far below what would be expected in the promise made by the government.”

    When asked about it on stage, Trudeau responded there is “obviously more to do.”

    “I don’t know the details behind those numbers,” he continued. “But I do know that we put a tremendous emphasis on ensuring that the provincial governments which deliver health care in our country are delivering the full range of reproductive health services in an inclusive way.”

    The Trudeau Cabinet has been watching developments around the abortion pill.

    In the U.S., some states and government organizations are moving to ban or restrict abortion. The Food and Drug Administration updated its guidelines on mifepristone in January so that it can only be sold with a prescription in certified pharmacies. Previously, the pill — which the FDA first approved in 2000 — could be obtained in person at clinics, hospitals and medical offices, as well as from some mail-order pharmacies.

    Fifteen states that allow abortion require medication abortions be prescribed solely by a physician, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which says more than half the abortions in the U.S. in 2020 occurred because of the pill.

    Last week, Minister Gould told CTV that if mifepristone were to be banned in the U.S., the Liberal government would “work to provide it for American women.”

    She was vague when pressed in that interview for details about Canada’s supply. When POLITICO asked for details, her office said, “We have discussed what Canada’s support for American women in need might be, and those discussions are still ongoing.”

    The idea that Canada would get involved with U.S. affairs doesn’t sit right with some American lawmakers, particularly ones from states like Texas with tight abortion pill restrictions already in place.

    “Canada should reevaluate their claims that it would provide Americans with a drug that is not only dangerous for the mother but out of step,” said conservative hardliner Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas). “These do-it-yourself chemical abortions should be off the shelf in the United States and around the world.”

    Americans may yet turn to Canada, though Arthur points out Canadians still have access problems of their own.

    “We’re just a much smaller country demographically,” she said. “It would hurt Canadians’ access to abortion by allowing a whole lot of Americans to come up here.”



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Ottawa hangover: After triumph of Biden visit, reality bites back at Trudeau

    Ottawa hangover: After triumph of Biden visit, reality bites back at Trudeau

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    Katie Telford, the prime minister’s chief of staff, joined the mix of business leaders and political insiders who gathered at Ottawa’s National Arts Centre. Jenni Byrne, the fixer behind the rise of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, was also in the crowd.

    Hardly inaudible was the persistent chatter about the vultures circling over the Trudeau government.

    Telford is at the center of allegations that China interfered in Canada’s last elections. Conservative MPs — and Canadians — want to know what she knew, and what she told the prime minister.

    A steady drip of scoops from the Globe and Mail newspaper and Global News broadcaster have cited intelligence reports and sources who claim the Chinese government targeted candidates in recent elections.

    After the most recent reporting alleged that Toronto Liberal MP Han Dong colluded with a Chinese diplomat, Dong left the caucus and vowed to clear his name.

    News of Dong’s resignation from the Liberal caucus broke last Wednesday evening, a day before Biden’s arrival for his first presidential visit to Canada.

    That night at a barbecue joint in Ottawa’s ByWard Market, conservative activists in town for a conference smelled blood. The news reverberated from huddle to huddle, the most anti-Liberal room in the city considering it a game-changer. Stephen Harper, the last conservative prime minister and a headliner at the conference, posed for photos with party faithful, while the talk was all about the Dong scandal.

    The opposition parties had united to demand that Telford appear at a parliamentary committee. After weeks of delay and Liberal filibusters, Telford relented last week. She’ll testify in the near future.

    At that Friday night party to celebrate the U.S.-Canada relationship, and work off the stress of the presidential visit, senior Liberals in the room acknowledged concern about the specter of foreign interference in Canadian elections. But only when asked. They considered it a night for networking, not negativity.

    This won’t be a sufficient answer starting Monday, when everyone is back to work.

    Biden glow

    Biden’s visit secured real wins for the government. A senior Liberal source close to the talks was over the moon. “Did we solve every issue? No, but real progress was made,” this person said. “Overall, the day exceeded my expectations.”

    Trudeau’s government signed a deal that allowed them to close the irregular border crossing at Roxham Road in Quebec, a key Conservative demand on border security that earned immediate condemnation from the left-wing New Democratic Party. Critics say the closure will push asylum-seekers to attempt more dangerous crossings elsewhere, but the semi-permanent Roxham facilities were a political liability for Trudeau.

    Trudeau and Biden also agreed to “continue discussions to carve-in Canadian goods into Buy America requirements” — a promise that spells relief for business leaders north of the border who constantly fear that Canada will be cut out of lucrative American contracts.

    The Canadians committed more money for Great Lakes protection and accelerated the planned procurement of new radar warning systems for continental defense.

    By all accounts, Biden flew home a happy neighbor.

    Liberals have another big moment coming this week when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday puts forward her latest budget — a roadmap for economic growth, including help for struggling families in a sluggish economy.

    “The Biden visit met our expectations in that it confirmed the opportunity for us to be true partners with the U.S. is real — not just rhetoric,” said the Business Council of Canada’s Goldy Hyder, a CEO who has the ear of legislators in both capitals.

    “All eyes now turn to the budget to see if we’ll seize it,“ he said. “We have what they need, now we have to deliver the goods.“

    Picking a line of attack

    Conservatives face a choice to attack Trudeau on economics or China.

    Freeland has promised restraint, but her fiscal projections won’t impress Conservatives. The party’s leader, Poilievre, sailed through a leadership race last year on the strength of a stump speech aimed at Canadians struggling with the cost of living.

    Poilievre has complained that Liberal spending has only driven up inflation, and a carbon tax that came into effect in 2019 has hurt taxpayers. When he addressed that national conference of conservatives last week, Poilievre’s message sounded like a stump speech designed to appeal to all Canadians.

    “We’re going to bring home a Canada that works for the people who work,” he said. “We’re going to bring home lower prices by getting rid of the inflationary deficits and taxes that have caused it in the first place.”

    But in recent weeks, Poilievre has also used the daily question period in the House of Commons to pelt the government with questions about Chinese interference — sometimes more than 20 in a day, virtually every slot allotted to the Conservatives.

    On the same day Biden arrived in town, 16 Conservative MPs asked the prime minister a combined 24 times to tell the House when he first learned of the allegations facing Dong, and what he did next. Trudeau was not present in the House. It fell to Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc to defend the government’s actions.

    “Mr. Speaker, it feels like the noose is tightening and every day brings more information to light,” said Conservative MP Dominique Vien.

    The public view on interference

    The polls aren’t looking good for Trudeau.

    A Mainstreet Research survey that polled Canadians from March 8–10 found that two-thirds of respondents have paid attention to news stories about Chinese interference. A slim majority (53 percent) believe the Chinese government interfered in the 2019 and 2021 elections.

    Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) support an independent public inquiry into the allegations. Only one-third said Trudeau’s decision to appoint a “special rapporteur“ to look into the allegations was a “satisfactory“ step.

    Another pollster, Léger, found nearly identical support for a public inquiry in a mid-March survey — including 71 percent of Liberal voters.

    A third pollster, Abacus Data, learned that 25 percent of Conservative voters viewed Chinese interference as having changed the result of the 2021 election.

    The House of Commons leaves March 31 for a two-week break. Liberals will parade their budget around the country, selling its component parts to target groups all over Canada.

    Poilievre will leave Ottawa, too. If he spends more time talking about foreign interference than the economy, it’s because he sees that as the riper target.

    Trudeau wants to be talking about anything else, and the Biden visit’s promise of strengthened cross-border supply chains is a boost for him. But as the hours since Biden left have shown, he is finding himself again on the political defensive.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Biden and Trudeau to mix thorny issues with niceties

    Biden and Trudeau to mix thorny issues with niceties

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    “This visit is about taking stock of what we’ve done, where we are and what we need to prioritize for the future,” Kirby said.

    Once Biden touches down in Canada, the president and first lady Jill Biden will head over to the Prime Minister’s home at Rideau Cottage for evening drinks. Friday’s schedule is loaded with a series of bilateral meetings, Biden’s speech to Parliament, and a joint news conference.

    Here’s a rundown of what the two leaders are expected to discuss behind closed doors:

    NORAD

    Both nations have lagged in modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command as overseas countries develop new capabilities, such as Russia’s long-range cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons. The Chinese spy balloon and a series of unidentified flying objects over both air spaces last month has put pressure on both leaders to address the evolving air threats.

    “Both the U.S. administration and our government do want to make sure that during this visit, we have a really deep conversation about North American security and NORAD in particular,” Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman said on CBC News over the weekend.

    The situation also continues to evolve, Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, said in an interview. If both Sweden and Finland join NATO, the Arctic becomes a “frontline between Russia Arctic and NATO Arctic,” he said.

    “The dynamic is looking more conflictual all the time, and Canada’s underinvestment in the Arctic is starting to pinch,” Sands said.

    Biden will likely praise Canada’s commitment to modernizing NORAD through its recent decision to buy 88 F-35 fighter jets to help protect North American airspace, Sands said. But David Cohen, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, suggested over the weekend in a TV interview that the U.S. wants to know about the size and timing of the commitments Canada has made to modernizing NORAD.

    But Hillman, responding to Cohen’s comments in an interview with POLITICO, noted the responsibility is not Canada’s alone.

    “Some of the investments that we’re making, these aren’t just things that you pluck off the shelf and implement. This is highly new and sensitive technology that is being developed and being implemented,” she said. “So if the suggestion is, let’s try and go faster — that’s a message I’ve heard before and I think that’s a message we certainly want to talk about with the Americans.”

    Ukraine and defense spending

    Late last year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Canada, which has the second largest Ukrainian population in the world, to lead post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine — to begin organizing with other countries and talking to agencies about money and specific needs in the years to come. Biden will likely check in on Trudeau’s progress.

    Canada’s defense spending will also be addressed, Cohen suggested over the weekend. He noted that the country has stepped up its support to Ukraine in terms of military equipment, but that defense remains a top priority for both countries.

    “It’s important for the United States. It’s important for Canada. And so I think how we fund our 21st century defense efforts, you know, in order to confront 21st century threats will be a topic of conversation,” Cohen said.

    Haiti

    Haiti has continued to be hit with one crisis after another, from gang violence, civil and political unrest to a resurgence of cholera. Though the Biden administration has drafted a U.N. Security Council resolution proposing a “non-U.N. international security assistance mission” to support the island nation, the U.S. doesn’t want to lead this effort. Many other countries have been hesitant to get involved.

    The leaders are expected to discuss a path forward, Sands said. For months, the White House has suggested it wants Canada to take the lead in a multi-national military intervention to bring stability to the country. But Ottawa has refrained from committing, with Trudeau noting last month that Canada’s response in Haiti is being guided by lessons and “difficult experience” from past interventions.

    Canada has utilized sanctions as a way to stem the financial flows of Haitian elites and gangs driving violence in the country. Trudeau has also sent naval vessels to help the Haitian National Police patrol the coast.

    “The Canadians have worked on Haiti and worked with Haiti for so long, that they are under no illusions that this is going to be a fun assignment or an easy assignment,” Sands said. “And just year after year, crisis after crisis, I think a lot of the countries that do pay attention to Haiti are at a loss.”

    Immigration

    Among the thornier issues is immigration — a growing problem for both leaders. Just as the U.S. southern border remains a vexing political issue for Biden, the influx of migrants is also putting pressure on Canada.

    Canadian leaders appear interested in discussing the Safe Third Country Agreement, a treaty the U.S. and Canada signed in 2004 that requires asylum seekers to make their claim in the first country they arrive in. Under the agreement, asylum seekers can be turned back to the United States if passing through an official border entry.

    But migrants have found a loophole through unofficial crossing points like Roxham Road, a small, well-traveled road that straddles the Canada-U.S. border between Quebec and New York. Quebec Premier François Legault has hammered Trudeau, calling on the prime minister to raise the issue with Biden.

    The U.S. is also expected to raise the root causes of irregular migration, Cohen said over the weekend.

    “I think a Safe Third Country Agreement can easily be a part of that discussion, and how a revised Safe Third Country Agreement could help bring under control some of the underlying root causes of irregular migration,” he said.

    Trudeau on Wednesday said the U.S. and Canada have been discussing the issue for months, and he hopes the leaders have an announcement “soon.”

    China

    Media reports have claimed that China meddled in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections, running interference operations against leaders they felt were hostile toward China.

    Trudeau’s government is at the center of a still evolving controversy surrounding these allegations. As concerns first arose, Trudeau wrote off questions about the results as election denialism, drawing comparisons to the U.S. and Jan. 6. Earlier this month, under growing pressure, he appointed a special investigator to advise the government how to probe the alleged election interference.

    “Trudeau doesn’t want to talk about it, but I think if he’s smart, he might just ask Biden, ‘What do we know? Are they messing in your elections? What are we going to do for the next election?’” Sands said. “Because Trudeau will have one, possibly in ‘24, certainly in ‘25. And the U.S. has big elections coming up, too. So having a conversation about how we shore up our democracy is relevant.”

    Trade and critical minerals

    Some trade issues are expected to come up, such as how the United States intends to comply with a dispute settlement panel ruling against its strict interpretation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement’s strict rules of origin. Canada and Mexico won that case late last year and could impose retaliation on potentially billions of dollars of American exports if the three countries don’t work out a negotiated settlement.

    There is also a longtime dispute over U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties on softwood lumber and a spat of Canadian measures. Among them, restrictions on dairy imports, a proposed digital service tax and pending legislation that the U.S. Trade Representative says could impact digital streaming services and online news sharing and discriminate against U.S. businesses.

    But the countries are working together on a collaborative basis to reduce supply vulnerabilities in key areas like critical minerals, which will be needed in large quantities for electric vehicles, solar panels and other clean energy technologies intended to curb reliance on fossil fuels.

    Climate issues and the Inflation Reduction Act

    The U.S. and Canada have committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, but both nations continue to use more oil and gas than they would like, Sands said.

    The U.S.’ Inflation Reduction Act will also be on the table. IRA subsidies for electric vehicle consumers have been written to include Canada, but when it comes to batteries, Canada has joined South Korea and Europe in expressing frustration that IRA subsidies are focused on bringing manufacturing to the United States — therefore pushing Canada to do more or risk losing this industry.

    Another issue that could pop up is a Canadian proposal to bury nuclear waste near the Great Lakes. A group of U.S. lawmakers who live around that region released a resolution ahead of Biden’s trip, urging the president to address the issue during his meetings with Trudeau.

    “Storing hazardous nuclear waste in our shared waterways threatens the drinking water of millions of people in the United States and Canada and jeopardizes jobs in the fishing, boating and tourism industries,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) said in a statement. “I urge President Biden to address Canada’s plan to permanently bury nuclear waste in the Great Lakes basin as he meets with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.”

    Doug Palmer, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Joseph Gedeon contributed to this report.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Von der Leyen, Trudeau tout ‘green alliance’ before Biden visits

    Von der Leyen, Trudeau tout ‘green alliance’ before Biden visits

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    “It’s to create good and well paying jobs, to promote growth, to boost our energy and climate cooperation across the board,” von der Leyen told reporters in Kingston, Ontario on Tuesday.

    “China produces 98 percent of Europe’s supplies of rare earths,” she said. “Europe needs to de-risk this dependency.”

    Canada is a minerals-rich country and major global producer of potash, palladium, niobium and uranium. The slow pace of regulatory hurdles, historically, hasn’t been a selling point for investors to bankroll Canadian projects.

    Talks are also underway for a memorandum of understanding on hydrogen. Von der Leyen said Europe is facing a time crunch in its bid to import 10 million tons of the fuel by 2030.

    Interest in sourcing hydrogen from Canada follows an agreement with Germany last year to begin exporting the fuel in 2025. Trudeau has previously said the ambitious goal is “doable,” despite the lack of export facilities in Atlantic Canada.

    The green deal pledge comes on the eve of von der Leyen’s arrival in Washington to meet with President Joe Biden. There, her tall task will be to convince Biden to extend the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) tax breaks to the European Union’s electric vehicle industry.

    Von der Leyen’s visit is her first to Canada since her election as president in 2019. Her five-year term will end next year with Europe’s elections. Biden, in turn, is expected to visit Canada later this month for his first in-person visit since taking office.

    More details about the EU-Canada green alliance are expected later this year at the High Level Dialogue on Climate.

    Partnering with Canada, a beneficiary of the IRA’s North American content rules for EVs, is one step to advance trade links as wealthy countries look to decarbonize and develop industries to displace reliance on Russia and China.

    The impact of the IRA has also been the subject of study by a parliamentary committee in Ottawa where concerns about its massive $369-billion package for clean tech has fueled concerns about protectionism and fears that investments will be pulled away from western allies.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Canada is ‘elbows deep’ in helping Haiti, Trudeau says

    Canada is ‘elbows deep’ in helping Haiti, Trudeau says

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    Trudeau announced Canada will send two navy vessels to the Haitian coast as part of a surveillance and intelligence operation.

    The announcement is the latest in Canada’s piecemeal response, short of the military intervention requested by acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry.

    Trudeau said the deployment of the navy vessels is intended to deter gangs from using waterways as “an extra sphere of influence.” They will not be there to intercept migrants, he added.

    “They are there to assist the Haitian National Police in their efforts to control the gang activity in Port-au-Prince and along the coast,” Trudeau told reporters, wrapping two days of meetings with Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders.

    Haiti and climate change topped the leaders’ agendas.

    In addition to the two ships, Canada will airlift three MRAPS (mine-resistant light armored vehicles), purchased by the Haitian National Police, to the country “in the coming days.”

    The Canadian leader said his government’s focus is to intervene in an “atrocious situation” by strengthening the Haitian National Police. “What’s happening in Haiti is absolutely heartbreaking — and we need to do everything we can that will help.”

    Both the White House and Canadian government have for months emphasized the need to find a Haitian-led solution to prevent the country from descending further into lawlessness.

    State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters Tuesday that discussions continue with Canada and other partners in the hemisphere, the Organization of American States and the United Nations about what can be done to bring stability and security to Haiti.

    A Haitian-led response has yet to emerge, and enduring interlaced humanitarian, political and security crises risk plummeting the country into further misery.

    Canada has leaned on sanctions as a tool to choke financial flows to Haitian elites and gangs linked to violence in the country — a strategy that saw the addition of two names to its list of 17 sanctioned individuals Thursday.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Trudeau knows there’s trouble on the horizon

    Trudeau knows there’s trouble on the horizon

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    Trudeau’s campaign-style tone is unmistakable.

    “There are two leaders today that you have to choose between,” he said in reference to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, a formidable communicator who has been tapping into the politics of misery to build an anti-Trudeau coalition.

    In his Friday speech to his party, Trudeau cast himself as a leader with a “positive vision of the future” and portrayed his rival as full of rage and light on policy and “positive solutions.” But by Saturday’s caucus meeting, the prime minister had softened his language on the threat of his government falling.

    “We are still in delivery mode,” Trudeau said in French after being asked if his government is aiming to walk the talk on promises made in the last campaign, in case another one comes sooner rather than later.

    Here are some hazards that could bring Trudeau some trouble in the year ahead.

    Inflation, affordability and recession woes

    Canada’s gross domestic product per capita dropped 1.3 percent during the pandemic, a stark contrast to the 1.2 percent growth tracked before 2020. The souring economy risks curdling Trudeau’s progressive agenda — and boosting Poilievre’s appeal to a broader swath of Canadians.

    Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem offered a bleak forecast last week, predicting economic growth will be “pretty close to zero” over the next two, three quarters.

    “It’s not going to feel good,” he said shortly after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points — its eighth consecutive hike in the past year to tamp down inflation.

    A potential recession, mild or full blown, will give Conservatives ammunition to callback some sass from the last campaign when Trudeau asked a reporter for forgiveness, “if I don’t think about monetary policy.”

    Macklem’s prognosis, and the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause interest rate hikes, puts pressure on the Liberals to slow government spending.

    It will be a hard trick to pull off.

    A new health deal with provinces and territories is anticipated soon, plus Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has promised a budget decked with measures in response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, so that Canada isn’t left scrounging for crumbs in a global energy investment race.

    McKinsey controversy

    Government contracts awarded to the world’s most powerful consulting firm have spiked since Trudeau’s Liberals took office in 2015. Now a parliamentary committee is investigating the deals, valued at least C$116 million.

    Dominic Barton, McKinsey’s former global managing director and Canada’s most recent ex-ambassador to China, has been called to testify before members of Parliament. This week’s showdown will give opposition members an opportunity to grill the former Trudeau political appointee about cronyism and government bloat — issues Poilievre has amplified in a bid to portray Liberals as out of touch.

    Convoy inquiry report

    A final report due by Feb. 20 risks inflicting massive damage for Trudeau.

    It’s been nearly a year since the Trudeau government invoked unprecedented powers to clear blockades on Parliament Hill and at U.S.-Canada border crossings. The convoy protests threaded together far-right extremists with the pandemic fatigued, disenchanted voters and QAnon enthusiasts in a weeks-long occupation of downtown Ottawa.

    It is up to the Public Order Emergency Commission, led by Justice Paul Rouleau, to determine if the federal government’s use of the Emergencies Act was appropriate and effective.

    A damning report could elicit a vote of non-confidence in the House of Commons, giving the New Democrats’ deal to prop up the minority Liberals’ until 2025 its first major stress test.

    A Biden visit

    Trudeau’s team has dined out on the prime minister’s friendship with former Preisdent Barack Obama to lift his progressive credibility in times of need. Biden’s first in-person visit to Canada as president will be a bromide for the prime minister on the heels of whatever the Rouleau’s inquiry finds.

    New economic and geopolitical challenges brought on by Russia’s war in Ukraine have brought Canada’s challenge in building major infrastructure projects to the fore. Ottawa is under pressure to move fast and build liquefied natural gas and hydrogen facilities, develop its battery supply chain from critical minerals to electric vehicles, in order to create jobs, maintain gross domestic product growth and relevance to its allies.

    Budget politics

    Health care and the green energy transition will take center stage in Freeland’s 2023 budget which, she said, will take a “fiscally prudent” approach.

    Freeland’s Fall Economic Statement introduced C$11.3 billion in new spending. A potential big price tag for her upcoming budget risks sinking her party’s fiscal credibility. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has put new demands on Freeland to increase military funding and shed the perception of Canada as a laggard in the NATO alliance.

    A prudent spring budget won’t necessarily mean a thrifty Fall Economic Statement. In 2021, the Liberals campaigned on a platform that touted C$78 billion in new spending, a bulk of which remains unallocated.

    Policy pressures

    The Liberal’s proposed gun legislation (Bill C-21), prohibiting some hunting rifle and shotgun models, is a ripe opportunity for Conservatives to cast Liberals as an urban party.

    Government House Leader Mark Holland has described it as an “emotionally charged” issue with no quick fix. A lack of consultation created blowback for the Liberals, irritating Trudeau-friendly premiers, Indigenous communities and compelled Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price to speak out against the bill.

    On the energy front, details of the Liberals’ promised cap on oil and gas greenhouse gas emissions are expected this year — policy guaranteed to spark debate between Ottawa and Alberta.

    There will be a provincial election in Alberta in May, which means United Progressive Conservative Premier Danielle Smith will use spring to squeeze in attacks against Trudeau, and specifically Ottawa’s imminent energy transition legislation, to shore votes in Canada’s oil and gas sector.

    Bill C-11, the Liberals’ Online Streaming Act, is on the cusp of becoming law, much to the disappointment of U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. If passed, the new law would require online streaming giants such as Netflix, Spotify and YouTube to pay up to support more Canadian content on their platforms or be hit with penalties if they don’t comply.

    Tai has criticized the legislation as being discriminatory against American companies and has not ruled out potential retaliation.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )