The News Caravan

Tag: Thinks

  • How Tim Scott thinks he can outmaneuver Trump, DeSantis and Pence

    How Tim Scott thinks he can outmaneuver Trump, DeSantis and Pence

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    A foregone conclusion, though, is that evangelicals — with all their subsets and denominations — will be his top constituency.

    In a video announcing his new committee, Scott’s first pledge was to defend America’s faith values and protect religious liberty. Scott’s answer later in the morning on how he would beat Trump in a primary involved a reference to Psalm 139.

    And own advisers say Scott’s path to viability involves courting the vote of churchgoers, particularly in Iowa, where his first meetings after his Wednesday announcement were with homeschool families and pastors.

    “Dear Heavenly Father,” read the first fundraising appeal from his exploratory committee, an email Wednesday morning that included a suggested two-minute prayer for Scott.

    But the evangelical lane isn’t one Scott will likely have to himself, and his focus on social conservatives could complicate Scott’s ability to appeal to a newer generation of Republican voters with looser opinions on abortion access and marriage equality.

    In addition to Trump — who in the White House became a hero of conservative Christians after delivering them the Supreme Court, among other things — former Vice President Mike Pence also speaks the language of Bible-believing Christians. Pence has long oriented his political message around faith and, like Scott, is at home in evangelical church settings.

    But a day after news broke that he was launching an exploratory committee, Scott sounded like a man ready to compete for primacy with that constituency.

    To a room of 35 pastors and their wives in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Wednesday, Scott told his life story — his spiritual testimony — before taking questions from Christian leaders who could ultimately help steer Iowa Christian voters toward one candidate or another.

    “Anybody who’s around him for just a couple minutes doesn’t doubt his heartfelt belief in Christ as his savior,” said Chad Connelly, the former chair of the South Carolina Republican Party who now runs an organization that engages pastors on political and policy issues. Connelly, who is also organizing pastor roundtables for other Republican 2024 hopefuls, recalled a minister telling him once: “Tim Scott quotes more scripture in conversation than a pastor does.”

    In a place like Iowa or Scott’s home state of South Carolina, though, the pool of voters identifying as conservative Christians is broad. And it represents a wide range of pro- and anti-Trump Republicans.

    “I’ve just learned this constituency — they’re not like robots,” said Steve Scheffler, the Republican National Committeeman from Iowa and president of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition. “Even though they agree on most issues, their methodology by the time they have their final pick in the caucuses can vary by 180 degrees.”

    A person familiar with Scott’s campaign strategy said voters are “going to be hearing a lot about his faith, and how it affects his worldview and vision.”

    As for his path to viability with the Republican primary electorate, another Scott adviser pointed to Scott being little-known nationally, which affords him a higher favorable rating and lower unfavorable rating than much of the rest of the field. His name recognition problem, meanwhile, can be remedied with the nearly $22 million he had sitting in his campaign account as of the end of last year — a number likely to be larger when he posts his first-quarter filings in coming days.

    Scott has kept a healthy distance from Trump in the Senate, neither a loyalist and cheerleader nor a critic. That puts him in position to pick up Trump admirers who are ready for the party to move on, as well as anti-Trump Republicans.

    But positioning oneself as the candidate who can earn the support of social conservatives while also broadening the GOP’s appeal to independents and swing voters will prove to be a tall order.

    Example No. 1: Abortion.

    At a time when Republican leaders are reckoning with the party’s losses among young voters and suburban women — particularly after last year’s Dobbs decision — Scott is attempting to walk a fine line on abortion rights. The issue has long remained one of the top priorities of conservative evangelicals.

    The senator, who was among the featured speakers at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life’s gala last fall and says he is “100% pro-life,” has declined to answer reporters’ questions on whether he would support a national abortion ban, such as a 15-week ban proposed by his home-state colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

    Scott remained reticent to speak about the issue on Wednesday, telling local reporters in Cedar Rapids that he favors a “robust debate” on abortion. Later, in an interview on CBS News, Scott brushed off multiple questions about whether he would support federal abortion limits.

    In his exploratory committee launch video, Scott vowed to “protect the right to life,” something he doesn’t mention on his website’s six-point “issues” page. Similarly, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has spoken about the need for the country to reach “consensus” on the issue, while avoiding specifics about when in the course of a pregnancy it should be outlawed.

    Trump, meanwhile, has drawn sharp criticism from top anti-abortion opponents for suggesting that the party became too extreme on the issue, despite the fact he appointed judges who later issued major court rulings siding with opponents of abortion rights.

    In contrast, Pence has positioned himself as the GOP primary field’s chief crusader against abortion rights, calling for a national ban and, more recently, celebrating a Texas judge’s controversial ruling against use of an abortion pill.

    Despite most other candidates and prospective candidates in the field also incorporating faith into their message, opponents of Scott note that he has not sought to brand himself as a conservative “fighter,” and religion is no longer the primary motivating factor for many voters.

    “It’s kind of like bringing a knife to a gun fight,” said one GOP consultant working for another 2024 Republican hopeful, referring to Scott’s emphasis on faith. “Everyone else is playing 12-dimensional chess, and you’re playing checkers.”

    Scott’s first events after launching his exploratory committee were behind closed doors. Wednesday morning, he and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) spoke privately with homeschool families, before emerging to speak with reporters. Scott’s roundtable with pastors was also closed to news media, though he gave a public address Wednesday night at a GOP women’s dinner in Cedar Rapids.

    Randy Page, the chief of staff to the president of Bob Jones University and a longtime Republican operative in the state, said he believes Scott is nimble enough to draw in independent-leaning and swing voters even while championing socially conservative causes. Page said he will support Scott if he ultimately runs.

    “Some of the things suburban women may have concerns about, he can talk about the issues in a way that appeals to them,” Page said. “Even if they may not agree with him on those things, they will find other issues they agree with him on and say, ‘This is the kind of man we would want to represent us as president of the United States.”

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    #Tim #Scott #thinks #outmaneuver #Trump #DeSantis #Pence
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Trump thinks Manhattan judge hates him. Too bad, experts say.

    Trump thinks Manhattan judge hates him. Too bad, experts say.

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    But experts said there’s no legal basis to bar Merchan from presiding.

    “If there were some facts showing that the judge had become irrational or infuriated then there might be an argument, but simply having sat in these other cases is not grounds for disqualification,” said Steven Lubert, co-author of “Judicial Conduct and Ethics.”

    Still, the appearance of bias — something judges try to avoid — persists, according to two court insiders in New York.

    A former assistant district attorney in Manhattan who is now a criminal defense lawyer said he was surprised Merchan would oversee District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution of Trump for charges related to a 2016 hush money payment.

    “I don’t think it’s really a great move on the part of the court system to assign the same judge,” said the former prosecutor, who was granted anonymity because he has cases before Merchan.

    “I am just shocked that the chief judge doesn’t preside over a case of this significance. The former president getting indicted calls for the chief judge of the court to handle it,” he said, referring to Ellen Biben, the criminal court’s administrative judge.

    Biben is also the former head of the New York State Joint Commission on Public Ethics, a one time New York State inspector general and served as a special deputy attorney general for public integrity.

    Trump claimed in the Friday Truth Social posting that Merchan was “hand picked by Bragg & the Prosecutors.”

    But the Manhattan district attorney’s office has no role in selecting judges. Instead that responsibility lies solely with the court system. Merchan is expected to be the trial judge for the Trump case because he was the judge overseeing the grand jury that voted to indict the former president Thursday afternoon.

    A New York court official, who was granted anonymity to discuss internal processes, said judges are picked to oversee grand juries randomly through an assignment wheel. If the grand jury produces an indictment, the judge who has been overseeing the grand jury then handles the ensuing trial, the official said. It was coincidental that Merchan handled both the Trump Org. trial and the grand jury that examined the hush money matter, this person said.

    David Bookstaver, former communications director for the New York State Office of Court Administration, said in an interview that Biben, in consultation with others — including the state court system’s chief judge, Tamiko Amaker — could assign a different judge to the case.

    Merchan is indisputably experienced. He was first appointed to the New York County Supreme Court — which is what New York state calls the trial court in Manhattan — in 2006 by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and moved to the criminal court in 2009. Before becoming a judge, he served for seven years as an assistant attorney general in the New York State Attorney General’s Office and before that as an assistant district attorney in Manhattan.

    Several lawyers and other court officials who know Merchan said he’s got the right temperament for the job.

    “He is very calm and balanced in his management of his courtroom,” said leading criminal defense lawyer Stacey Richman, who has handled several cases before Merchan.

    But a second criminal defense attorney agreed that Merchan’s handling of all of the Trump-related cases makes it look like the fix is in, even if it isn’t.

    “It appears to me the judicial system ought to get a little more random,” said the second defense attorney, who was also granted anonymity since he practices before Merchan.

    While Trump’s defense team may bring a motion for Merchan to recuse himself, it’s probably a nonstarter.

    “It’s entirely up to the judge, who will reject a recusal motion,” said Stephen Gillers, a professor at New York University Law School who specializes in judicial ethics.

    “That is not a decision that Trump can appeal now. If there’s a conviction then the defendant, Trump, can argue this motion should have been granted,” Gillers explained.

    Gillers said the most important thing is that Merchan has the “confidence of his colleagues and an ability to run the case.”

    Frank Rothman, who’s practiced in Manhattan Criminal Court for 37 years, said Merchan enjoys that confidence.

    “He’s a very thorough guy, even keeled,” Rothman said. “Treats people with respect, no bullshit kind of guy.”

    Erica Orden and Wesley Parnell contributed to this report.

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    #Trump #thinks #Manhattan #judge #hates #bad #experts
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • America in Decline? World Thinks Again.

    America in Decline? World Thinks Again.

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    gettyimages 1238865228r

    “The U.S. has taken the lead convincingly and quite deftly on Ukraine,” François Heisbourg, the veteran and often critical French observer of American foreign policy in action, told me. Referring to the same advisers who were dismissed as callow incompetents in Afghanistan, he said, “Most of them are adults. They are potty trained. This [kind of U.S. response] hasn’t happened in over 20 years,” since the Clinton administration’s intervention in the Balkans. “We’re back to a world that people my age recognize,” added Heisbourg, who’s in his early 70s.

    Another source of American power? Chinese weakness. As Putin’s military got shredded on the battlefield, Xi Jinping mismanaged the Covid response and cemented one-man rule at his party congress in ways that spooked neighbors and investors. Add an aging population and slowing growth, and — at least by the new Davos Consensus — we’ve passed “Peak China” and are headed the other way. This doesn’t mean China won’t be a danger; its frailties could make Xi less predictable and more dangerous. But the idea once dominant here that China would soon succeed the U.S. as the world’s leading power sounds ridiculous to Davos ears — as much as the claims about Japanese supremacy in 1980s did a few years after they were made.

    Bearishness on China and on Europe’s prospects adds to America’s appeal, in particular, for business elites. Here’s a typical sentiment: “The U.S., in almost any sector, is the most attractive market, not just in terms of size but innovation,” Vas Narasimhan, who runs the Swiss drug maker Novartis, the world’s fourth-biggest pharmaceutical company with a large presence in Massachusetts, told me. As the world worries about possible recession, another part of the new consensus is that the U.S. would weather it best.

    This upbeat view on the U.S. isn’t intended to warm patriotic or partisan fires. For one thing, the Davos Consensus is often wrong; not so long ago, this crowd was long on crypto and short on the U.S.

    It’s also worth listening to the anxieties. They’re as revealing as the bullishness — about America and the state of the world.

    In the wake of the Trump era, everyone feels free to doubt the stability of the American system, even if the midterms sent a reassuring message of back-to-normalcy. Most global companies and players know the policy paralysis and political polarization firsthand. And yet: As often as an executive will bemoan that members of Congress care more about Fox/MSNBC bookings than grappling with complex legislation, in this same breath, they’ll mention a constitutional order going back 250 years and traditions of rule of law hard to find in many other places. Until proven otherwise, probably by its own hand, democracy in America is one of the safer bets in the world, they say.

    The new anxiety: America’s back on the world stage, but what kind of America?

    On multilateralism, through NATO or the U.N., and on security in Europe, the Biden administration harkens back to another century — not to the Obama era, which began the distancing from traditional allies (who recoiled over the “pivot to Asia” and the “red line” in Syria that wasn’t) that Trump continued. But its approach to trade, to an industrial policy that prioritizes “reshoring” and “buy American,” to many Davos eyes, resembles Trump more than any other recent president.

    This continuity is what makes Europeans sound conflicted on the U.S. The Inflation Reduction Act, which will push billions in subsidies to American industry, and a CHIPS Act that seeks to repatriate the production of semiconductors, prompted dismay in Europe. As does the Biden Administration’s indifference to the World Trade Organization. Joe Manchin, the principal author of the IRA legislation, felt the backlash firsthand in Davos, as my colleagues Alex Ward and Suzanne Lynch reported Thursday.

    “The hope about the Biden administration was that it would be less inwardly looking than outward looking,” Cecilia Malmstrom, a Swedish politician who ran EU trade policy in the last decade, told a small lunch gathering in Davos. A European leader, who was speaking on background in another private meeting, put it more bluntly: “The U.S. undermines globalization, the other pillar of U.S. leadership. This could be the biggest strategic mistake in global relations for a long time.” To them, this approach is a rebuke of America’s commitment to a global order built on open trade and democratic values – what was known at one point as the Washington Consensus, which, as opposed to any fleeting one reached in Davos, held for decades.

    If America will be both strong again and more willing to go alone, “this is a big thing!” said France’s Heisbourg. “This is very unlike the America of the past. It looks like this will be a century of disorder, and that’s pretty scary.”

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    #America #Decline #World #Thinks
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )