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That figure eclipses the pace of both Donald Trump and Barack Obama.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
Tag: Senate
Senate Democrats marked a major milestone on Tuesday: They’ve now confirmed 100 of Joe Biden’s picks for the federal courts.
Pakistan Senate divided over condolences for Musharraf
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Islamabad: The Pakistan Senate was sharply divided over the idea of offering prayers for late President Pervez Musharraf, as the treasury side strongly opposed it while PTI insisted on it and later praised him, and PPP lawmakers condemned the former leader for undermining the Constitution.
Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani asked JI Senator Mushtaq Ahmad to offer prayers for victims of earthquake in Turkey, Syria and Lebanon, and Musharraf, who had passed away in Dubai on Sunday, The News reported.
The House echoed with slogans of “no, no” raised by the members from the treasury benches while Mushtaq Ahmad, who sits on the opposition side, also straight away said there will be no prayers for Musharraf and Sanjrani sensed the majority was opposed to it and accordingly urged him to skip him in prayers.
Leader of the Opposition Shahzad Wasim, who was a member of then Musharraf’s cabinet, as state minister for interior and PML-Q senator from 2003-06, wondered what was the harm in offering prayers for him, prompting JI legislator to retort, “he was a certified traitor who broke the Constitution twice” and was responsible for conflagration in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
However, this could not quiet the leader of opposition and he continued with defending the former military ruler while members from the government rose in their seats and gathered around the chairman’s podium.
PPP Senator Moula Bux Chandio rose to insist that the one who breaks the law is a traitor and argued those defending Musharraf were also traitors.
“You are sitting in the Parliament and have taken oath under the Constitution. You should adopt the path which leads to democracy,” he contended.
He recalled how Musharraf’s indictment in treason case had to be put off for the third time in January 2014, when he went to a military hospital instead of appearing before the court to face the charge, The News reported.
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#Pakistan #Senate #divided #condolences #Musharraf( With inputs from www.siasat.com )
California Dems prepare for fierce Senate battle
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But they’ll have to endure a contentious and expensive intraparty battle first, one that’s already testing loyalties. Nancy Pelosi threw her support behind Schiff Thursday — if Feinstein decides to retire — and 20 current or former members of Congress from California joined the former speaker in his camp. Soon, others in the state’s enormous class of Democratic officials will be similarly forced to take sides as candidates trawl for potentially valuable endorsements.
And given the close relationships among the state’s Democrats, this year’s Thanksgiving could get awkward.
“Many of them served together in the state Legislature before — Barbara Lee, Adam Schiff, Mike Thompson — it’s a long list,” said Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), a Schiff backer. “We’ve known each other for, you know, 20, 30 years. So, there’s relationships.”
There’s still the possibility that other top-tier candidates could shake up the race. In recent days, with the fresh memory of Rick Caruso’s stronger-than-expected showing in the Los Angeles mayoral election, members of the California congressional delegation have privately discussed the possibility of a wealthy self-funded candidate launching a campaign, though previous wealthy aspirants don’t boast a successful track record.
Money will be critical in the state’s expensive media markets, and Pelosi’s endorsement of Schiff, a longtime ally, has already rippled through the world of prominent California donors. The list of backers she brought along ran the gamut geographically and ideologically: from southern California to the Bay Area and both long-serving members and relatively new frontliner Rep. Mike Levin.
It’s a significant boost for Schiff, who represents wealthy suburbs around Los Angeles. While he has a healthy fundraising operation already underway in Southern California, Pelosi’s critical cachet around San Francisco could help him lock down donors in the state’s two wealthiest regions. Schiff already had a head start after a competitive reelection campaign forced Porter to deplete much of her account, and Lee’s fundraising has been relatively paltry.
“To have the most significant and prominent Californian in the state” and “someone who is so identified with Northern California politics endorsing Adam Schiff, from the south, is quite significant,” said John Emerson, who previously co-chaired the DNC’s southern California finance arm.
“Obviously, it’s going to help from a fundraising standpoint. It’s a momentum-builder,” Emerson added, noting how early Pelosi backed Schiff.
Two Democrats could easily end up on the November ballot under California’s top-two primary system. While Padilla faced a Republican in the 2022 election — and trounced him by 18 points — the state’s previous two Senate races featured four Democrats: now-Vice President Kamala Harris against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez in 2016 and Feinstein defeating then-state Sen. Kevin de León in 2018.
But the contest to succeed Feinstein is comparatively wide open. Feinstein was the longtime incumbent and Harris was an early and prohibitive frontrunner in taking the seat of outgoing Sen. Barbara Boxer, who was elected alongside Feinstein in 1992. Then Padilla was appointed to fill Harris’ seat after she became vice president, giving him an incumbency without the battle of a primary.
In other words, some California Democrats have been waiting decades for a true run at the upper chamber. And it could be the first truly competitive U.S. Senate race under California’s top-two system.
“It’s difficult insomuch as we have friendships,” said Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.), who hasn’t yet backed a candidate but has known Lee and Schiff for a long time. “In a state like California, where you’ve got a big delegation, you have a lot of opportunities to work with one another and get to know one another and become friends, but you have very few opportunities to move up.”
Some members of the delegation want to see a fully-formed field before they stick their necks out.
“I think most folks are waiting to see what the actual total field looks like … But obviously, there’s really great folks who have already announced,” said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), a first-term member. And others are waiting for official word on what Feinstein will do, like Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.), who remains publicly undecided out of respect for the senior senator. But as Padilla’s D.C. roommate, he admits he’s been “constantly asking [Padilla] what he thinks or what have you.”
Others, however, are worried about having too many Democratic candidates. That could fracture the liberal vote in the primary, allowing a Republican to make it through to the general with a plurality alongside one Democratic frontrunner. Progressives worry that would deliver the seat to Schiff, whom they view as unacceptably centrist for the state.
Liberals are already calculating how to avoid getting locked out of a general election slot.
“We cannot afford to split the progressive vote and elect somebody that takes corporate money and passes policies that increase suffering,” said Amar Shergill, head of the California Democratic Party’s progressive caucus. “There’s a corporate Democrat wing, whether it’s Adam Schiff or the billionaire of the month. We don’t want folks that are going to follow the corporate agenda.”
Consolidating behind one candidate will be critical, Shergill said — and that may involve pressuring a less viable progressives to abandon their campaigns.
“We’re going to come to a point in the calendar — probably end of summer, early fall, where there are going to be one or more progressive candidates in the race, and we are going to tell all of them but one they need to drop out,” Shergill said.
California’s large bloc of unaffiliated voters could factor heavily into the larger calculus. Many of those roughly five million voters lean Democratic, and their votes could vault a contender into the general — potentially rewarding an appeal to the center.
At the same time, progressives who grew increasingly dissatisfied with Feinstein are energized by the prospect of replacing her with someone to the left. That energy could benefit the candidate who can harness the California Democratic Party’s devoted leftward base.
“There is, of course, an ideological divide amongst Democrats. What you’re seeing right now is a strong showing among progressives,” said Assemblymember Alex Lee, who is part of the Legislature’s contingent of Berniecrats. “I think it’s a great position to have multiple strong progressives being considered to run.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Pelosi endorses Schiff in California Senate race — if Feinstein doesn’t run
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Rep. Nancy Peolsi on Thursday endorsed Rep. Adam Schiff in California’s high-profile Senate primary, backing the former House Intelligence Committee chair but only on the condition that Sen. Dianne Feinstein opts not to run again.
“If Senator Feinstein decides to seek re-election, she has my whole-hearted support. If she decides not to run, I will be supporting House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff, who knows well the nexus between a strong Democracy and a strong economy,” Pelosi (D-Calif.), a two-time speaker of the House who stepped down from leadership earlier this year, said in an email. “In his service in the House, he has focused on strengthening our Democracy with justice and on building an economy that works for all.”
A spokesperson for Feinstein did not immediately return an email seeking comment on Pelosi’s announcement.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Mitch Daniels opts against a run for the Senate
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“Maybe I can find ways to contribute that do not involve holding elective office. If not, there is so much more to life,” Daniels added. “People obsessed with politics or driven by personal ambition sometimes have difficulty understanding those who are neither.”
Daniels’ decision marks the end of a monthslong flirtation with a return to electoral politics after a stint as president of Purdue University. And it limits the likelihood of a costly and messy Republican primary, one that would have pitted a conservative fixture of the Reagan era against a sharp-elbowed MAGA upstart in Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who has announced his candidacy for the Senate.
Senate Republicans had been eager to avoid a contested primary for what should be a safe red seat. And with Daniels out, there was little appetite for Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) or another Indiana Republican to get in the race with so many opportunities elsewhere on the Senate map to go on offense.
National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) released a supportive statement on Tuesday saying he looked “forward to working with one of our top recruits this cycle, Jim Banks, to keep Indiana red in 2024,” a clear signal that the party is comfortable with Banks at this point. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) also endorsed Banks on Tuesday, joining Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).
“I’m excited about the early momentum and support for our campaign but we’ve got a long way to go,” Banks said on Tuesday morning.
Daniels said he had considered running on a pledge to serve just one six-year term.
“I would have returned any unspent campaign funds to their donors, closed any political accounts, and devoted six years to causes I think critical to the long-term safety and prosperity of our country,” he said.
In his statement, Daniels said he would have focused on safety net programs, national security in the face of a “would-be superpower” in China and securing the border without foreclosing on broader immigration reform.
“And I would have tried to work on these matters in a way that might soften the harshness and personal vitriol that has infected our public square, rendering it not only repulsive to millions of Americans, but also less capable of effective action to meet our threats and seize our opportunities,” he said.
This is the second time Daniels has turned down a chance to join that chamber: In late 1988, he declined Gov Robert Orr’s offer to fill the vacancy created by Dan Quayle’s ascent to the vice presidency. Daniels also famously turned down a 2012 presidential bid, citing concerns of his wife and daughters.
Braun’s seat, however, had special meaning to Daniels and his allies. He helped the late Sen. Dick Lugar first capture the seat in 1976 before serving as his chief of staff for five years. Daniels then ascended to oversee all national Senate races as the executive director of the Republican Party’s campaign arm.
Lugar would later lose the seat after being defeated by Richard Mourdock in the GOP primary in 2012. Former Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly would beat Mourdock later that fall. But Braun would then go on to defeat Donnelly in 2018.
Daniels was always somewhat unlikely to take a non-executive role that would have him shuttling to D.C. Still, a small circle of Daniels advisers had gone so far as to recruit a potential campaign manager and had begun preparing paperwork for him to file for a run. Last Wednesday, Daniels made the rounds in Washington, visiting with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Daines, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Meanwhile, Banks huddled with Vance and Donald Trump Jr. at the Capitol Hill Club — a GOP power hub.
McConnell himself met with both Daniels and Banks last week. The meeting with Banks went “very well,” according to a person familiar with the meeting.
Even before announcing, Daniels faced attacks from Trump world painting him as a RINO. The deep-pocketed Club for Growth also sought to keep him out of the race with a small statewide ad buy blasting his record. Daniels, who never ran a negative ad in his two gubernatorial campaigns in the 2000s, would have found himself in a very different political climate today.
“My one tour of duty in elected office involved, like those in business before and academe after it, an action job, with at least the chance to do useful things every day,” Daniels said. “I have never imagined that I would be well-suited to legislative office, particularly where seniority remains a significant factor in one’s effectiveness, and I saw nothing in my recent explorations that altered that view.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Trump’s slow-rolling 2024 bid cobbles together new Senate support
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The freshman duo’s moves come after just two other upper-chamber Republicans, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), have backed Trump since the 2022 midterms. And though four Senate GOP endorsements is an early indicator that Trump is the frontrunner in the 2024 primary, it’s still a far cry from the show of support on the Hill that Trump enjoyed four years ago as an incumbent president.
But much has changed since then: two impeachments, the violent Capitol riot and a presidential campaign that’s only inched along in the two-plus months after launching. Not to mention the intra-party ground Trump lost with primary endorsements of Republican Senate candidates who went on to lose races in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. What’s more, Trump has a legitimate potential primary rival in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, on top of several other contenders eyeing a run.
Given that significantly altered landscape, Tuberville described the slow buildup of Trump’s effort as intentional. He said he spoke to Trump recently, and that the former president told him “we’re gonna do small ones early and kind of build our momentum, build our teams in each state.”
“I’m gonna be disappointed in the summertime if we don’t have more [endorsements]. I’ll put it that way. Right now, it’s no big concern,” Tuberville said.
Trump kicked off his campaign this weekend in New Hampshire and South Carolina, taking preemptive shots at DeSantis. Back on Capitol Hill on Monday, the foray got a mixed reception, particularly in the Senate. House Republicans have been far quicker to endorse Trump during his third bid for the White House.
Some Republicans, particularly those in senior positions, said there’s a lot of hope for a different candidate. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said “there seems to be a growing desire to get some new blood.”
“There will be alternatives this time around, it sounds like,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who called DeSantis “very formidable. There may be others, too.”
A Trump spokesperson did not return a request for comment.
Trump’s backers and his skeptics sound alike in one respect: They say the campaign is very early and that many Capitol Hill Republicans are reluctant to make an endorsement before the field is settled. Fellow senators like Tim Scott (R-S.C.) may yet run, in addition to other top GOP names like DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Many senators are reluctant to make early enemies.
In presidential races, though, things accelerate quickly. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) announced his 2016 presidential campaign in March 2015, with Trump declaring in June — and winning almost no establishment support until he began thumping his rivals in the primaries.
“It’s up to them to figure that out for themselves … they’re all politicians,” said Graham. “Nobody endorsed him the last time he won.”
And some say they won’t weigh in, period. Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), another first-term senator, said that being on an RNC advisory council precludes her from making an endorsement. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who chairs the conference’s campaign arm, said he would be neutral as well: “That’s a fair question, and I’m focused on the Senate. Politics is about addition, not subtraction.”
Other Republicans are watching to see if Trump’s early rumblings about running a more traditional campaign this time around will come to fruition.
“What I did like is, he said he’s talking about the future,” Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who is running for governor of his state in 2024, said of Trump. “If he sticks on the future and only refers to the past about how good his record was pre-Covid, he could put together a winning formula.”
Still, Braun’s ambivalence is telling. He was one of Trump’s strongest defenders during the former president’s first impeachment trial, and other longtime allies like Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) are not weighing in on the primary yet.
Trump’s campaign has also been off to a chaotic start. Within weeks of his announcement, he dined with antisemites and suggested terminating the Constitution. Yet, despite those controversies and ongoing federal investigations, Republicans privately acknowledge there’s a real likelihood Trump could be their nominee again, especially if the field is crowded and he maintains his base of support.
Even senators who practice a different style of politics said they remained open to evaluating his bid for another term.
“I’m going to look at it. I’m going through the process everybody else is,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who described DeSantis as “pretty effective” but wants to see if his style of politics works nationally. “It’s just not something, in my relatively short time in politics, that I ever remember talking about two years out.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Haley Stevens passed on mounting a bid for Michigan’s Senate seat on Monday.
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“I will not be seeking election to the United States Senate at this time,” she wrote in a statement.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Gallego’s early Sinema challenge squeezes Senate progressives
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On the other hand, longtime Sinema critic Sanders (I-Vt.) is suggesting that he’d be open to backing Gallego: “I’ve not heard from Gallego, but it’s something we would certainly look into.”
Arizona’s 2024 Senate contest is already testing the power of incumbency among Democrats — a dynamic felt most acutely on their left flank in the chamber. Liberals aired their share of frustration with Sinema during the last Congress, when she wielded her majority-making vote to cut sweeping bipartisan deals. But coming out early for Gallego risks making life harder while Sinema still serves.
Progressives who are behind Gallego, a fifth-term House Democrat, hope they can eventually secure endorsements from Sanders and other upper-chamber liberals, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.). Merkley declined to comment on Gallego this week. Meanwhile, Warren said it’s “too early.”
For now, the Senate Democratic campaign arm is refraining from talking about a potential Gallego-Sinema matchup. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also demurred this week, only saying it’s “much too early” and praising Sinema as an “excellent” senator.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee can help in races with independent candidates who would caucus with the party, even without officially endorsing them. In 2012, the campaign arm took out ads against GOP nominee Charlie Summers in Maine, despite never formally endorsing Angus King, who ran as an independent and continues to caucus with Democrats. The party also backed Independent Al Gross in the 2020 Alaska Senate race.
But it’s been years since the DSCC had to confront a serious Democratic challenge to an independent senator who, despite the ire she sparks on the left, more often than not votes with the party.
Progressives see plenty of reasons for frustration with Sinema, who voted against changing the filibuster, supports business-friendly tax policies and opposed a push to raise the minimum wage to $15 in the 2021 coronavirus relief bill. She’s also rubbed some of her colleagues the wrong way on a political level: for example, she backed her friend and former colleague Democratic Rep. Joe Kennedy when he challenged Markey in the party’s 2020 Massachusetts Senate primary.
But Sinema’s also played a central part in some of President Joe Biden’s biggest legislative accomplishments so far, including laws on infrastructure, same-sex marriage and gun safety. That’s not lost on Senate Democrats who recognize the value of her affable relationship with Senate Republicans and ability to shape significant bipartisan legislation.
While the incumbent has $7.9 million in the bank for a potential run and Gallego blasts her as in the pocket of big donors, he isn’t just hunting in the grassroots for money to spend against Sinema. Gallego is set to host a high-dollar fundraiser in Washington on Feb. 28, with the suggested contributions starting at $500, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO.
Larry Cohen, board chair of the Sanders-aligned Our Revolution, said that “Democrats have an obligation to support the Democratic nominee and build the Arizona Party.” Yet even as outside organizations push for more Gallego endorsements, spokesperson Rebecca Katz said that’s not where the candidate is devoting his attention.
“While a number of Ruben’s colleagues have reached out to offer their encouragement, this decision belongs to the people of Arizona, and that’s who he’s focused on,” Katz said. “Caring more about what powerful people in D.C. think than actual Arizonans is kind of the whole problem with Sinema.”
Only a small group of Senate Democrats are willing to even entertain questions about Gallego, all while declining to talk about a potential Sinema reelection bid. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) called Gallego a “very impressive and effective legislator” and welcomed the Arizonan’s interest in a move across the Capitol. But Blumenthal also made clear that he rarely endorses in primaries and highlighted that Sinema’s reelection plans are up in the air.
Members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Sens. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), could also face pressure to back Gallego, according to a Democrat close to the Arizona congressman. Luján said Wednesday that “Ruben’s a good person, cares about people” but was noncommittal about the race, only observing that “at the end we’ll see how this all plays out.” Menendez declined to comment and said he’s focused on his own reelection.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are more than happy to watch it all from the sidelines, continuing to publicly hope Sinema ends up with switching caucuses and joining them on the other side of the aisle. Republicans have lost the last three Senate races in Arizona, most recently in 2022, when Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) defeated Blake Masters.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week that the Gallego bid is a “big dilemma for the Senate Democratic majority.”
“I’m pretty sure you were asking a bunch of questions along those lines right before we came out here,” McConnell told reporters gathered for his weekly press conference. “I look forward to reading which answers, if any, you got.”
Zach Warmbrodt and Sarah Ferris contributed to this report.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Schiff kicks off California Senate bid
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Schiff is entering a crowded Senate field that’s likely to test alliances in the nation’s largest state. California’s top-two primary system and heavily Democratic electorate raises the possibility that two Democrats could advance to the general election. Schiff, a prodigious fundraiser, has built up a hefty campaign war chest with over $20 million cash on hand at the end of November 2022, ahead of a certainly expensive primary campaign.
Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), has repeatedly declined to announce her plans yet, but Democrats largely expect the 89-year-old Senate veteran to step aside.
In an email to supporters later Thursday, Schiff acknowledged Feinstein hadn’t yet announced her plans, but added: “We need to start preparing for the fights ahead right now.” The two have also previously discussed a potential Schiff Senate bid.
Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) already entered the race and is trying to carve out a progressive lane, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), a longtime liberal leader, has privately signaled to her colleagues she intends to run, though she has not yet made a formal announcement.
Schiff’s specific ideology within the Democratic Party doesn’t fall neatly into one box. While Porter and Lee have both served in leadership of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Schiff has never been a part of the group. And though he began his congressional career as a member of the fiscally moderate “Blue Dog” Democrats, he now stands further to the left than he used to — with support for liberal priorities such as the Green New Deal and Medicare for All.
“I very much view myself as a progressive,” Schiff said in an interview later Thursday, adding that he intends to stress basic quality-of-life issues like housing and wages.
Schiff, as well as Lee, are expected to be able to draw on deep connections to other California politicians, dating back to their time in the state legislature. They’ve both served alongside other members of Congress who also rose up through the state ranks.
Top House Democratic leaders are signaling they’ll remain neutral in the contest between the California heavyweights.
“I think there are a few members of the caucus who are running for the United States Senate and I wish all of them well,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a brief interview Thursday. “We’re going to miss them, but I wish all of them well in their political endeavors.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )Here is how Ruben Gallego believes he can win Arizona’s Senate seat
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The congressman thinks fears that the left’s vote will be cannibalized are greatly misplaced. As he sees it, Sinema, who was a Democrat until last month, will instead fracture the vote on the right.
“Let’s be clear about one thing. Sinema is not going to split the Democratic vote,” Gallego told POLITICO. “She’s even more unpopular with Democrats than she is with Republicans, and actually has a better chance of taking votes away from their side if they nominate another MAGA candidate — which they likely will.”
That Gallego has grappled with these voter permutations underscores how unusual and unpredictable the Arizona Senate race already is. It also reflects the complexities of the campaign he must run.
As a progressive in a state where registered Democrats are outnumbered by Republicans and independents alike, he risks being squeezed on both sides in a general election between two other candidates. Assuming he wins the Democratic nod, he also won’t know who his Republican opponent is until the GOP primary takes place in August 2024, unless one candidate clears the field. And Sinema herself has not yet revealed whether she will run for reelection or step aside.
Gallego’s advisers said they are operating under the assumption that either scenario could happen. The congressman hasn’t wasted any time attacking Sinema, though — a move that at this stage is almost certainly geared more towards raising money than winning over voters. In a fundraising email this week, he wrote that “Sinema has used her position of power to help those who already have it all” and “has stood in the way of raising the minimum wage.”
Sinema’s party switch and defense of the filibuster has made her an unpopular figure among liberals across the nation, and Gallego’s campaign announced that it raked in more than $1 million from upwards of 27,000 donations in the first day-and-a-half after he entered the race. The key question is whether that enthusiasm will translate into a mass exodus of Arizona Democratic voters away from the senator. Many Republicans in the state are banking on the opposite.
“Sinema has been a Democrat for her entire career,” said Corey Vale, an Arizona-based GOP strategist who is advising Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is considering a bid for the Senate. “It’s hard to conceive of a scenario where she doesn’t get a significant portion of Democrats to support her even though she is now running as an independent.”
Though the general election is nearly two years away, Gallego’s advisers are beginning to roughly sketch out what his unorthodox path to victory could look like. They believe that Gallego, who is running to be Arizona’s first Latino senator, would generate excitement among Democratic voters in addition to benefiting from the high turnout of a presidential election.
“Ruben can build on the winning coalitions assembled by Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs, while improving turnout/margins with Latinos, young people, Native Americans, veterans, and the working class,” said Rebecca Katz, a top strategist for Gallego, referring to the Arizona senator and governor who won in a likely tougher climate for Democrats in 2022.
Gallego’s team argues that he can also win over a significant chunk of the independent vote, much of which, they say, is Latino. According to an analysis of the voter file by the campaign, about 40 percent of Latinos in Arizona are registered independents. And his advisers think his authenticity and experience as a Marine combat veteran on the House Armed Services Committee will appeal to independent voters.
“When Washington talks about independents, they don’t tend to think of Latinos, but there’s actually a large Latino independent streak, people who feel like the Democratic Party hasn’t spoken to them in a long time,” said Gallego. “We can get those voters.”
As for attracting Republican voters, Gallego vows to campaign in conservative areas and his advisers believe that his military background will resonate. But his team is also making the calculation that a far-right Republican will win the primary, and that that person will split much of the GOP vote with Sinema should she run for reelection.
John LaBombard, a former Sinema aide, said that Arizona “has never elected statewide a progressive partisan or a liberal firebrand,” whereas Sinema has proven that she can win competitive races with the votes of independents and even some Republicans.
“I worry about an untested candidate,” he said, “and I think that’s probably a similar calculus that the Democratic Party nationally writ large is also sort of grappling with.”
Along with Lamb, GOP candidates who are reportedly eyeing the seat include former unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, failed 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost to Lake in last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Greg Stanton said recently that he is taking a pass on running, a boon to Gallego. Another possible Democratic contender is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.
A spokesperson for Sinema declined to comment for this story, pointing to the senator’s recent statements that she is currently not focused on campaign politics.
Given how early in the cycle it is, polling on the Arizona Senate race has been scant. But a December poll by Morning Consult showed that Sinema is one of the most unpopular senators in the country, and that a larger percentage of Republicans (43 percent) said they approved of her than Democrats (30 percent) after she changed her party registration. Forty-two percent of independents approved of her, while 43 percent disapproved and 15 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion.
Andy Barr, a Democratic consultant who is a veteran of Arizona campaigns, acknowledged that Democrats in the battleground state are concerned about the possibility of the Democratic vote being split between Sinema and Gallego.
“Are people nervous about it? Yes,” he said. “But we live in a state of nervousness.”
At the same time, Barr, who has worked for Gallego in the past but is not involved in the Arizona Senate race, said he believes it is unlikely that Sinema will get many votes from Democrats if she runs for the Senate again.
“I don’t think that there’s going to be a lot of like Democratic ticket splitting,” he said. “I think the question is, how close can [Gallego] get to zeroing out Kyrsten’s vote among Democratic voters? Obviously she’s going to get some, but there was real vitriol toward her before she left [the party], and I think that’s only gotten worse.”
Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based GOP strategist, said that Gallego’s challenge is running as a progressive in what is still a conservative state. Both Sinema and Kelly campaigned as independent-minded candidates in their winning elections and were not chest-thumping liberals, he said.
But the absence of a Democratic primary may allow Gallego to forgo some of the hard appeals he would otherwise have to make to progressives and instead allow him some time to burnish his credentials with independents and even Republicans. And Marson conceded that the GOP has serious challenges in the Senate race as well.
“A traditional conservative Republican who is out there campaigning on the economy, on border security, on reducing inflation would easily win the Senate seat,” he said. “The problem will be to get that person across the primary finish line. At this particular time, as recently as just this past August, we’ve seen former President Trump still has a hold on the Arizona Republican primary voter.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )
