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  • Brussels Playbook: Macron ‘unfollows’ Washington — Ukraine’s spring surprise — ChatGPT meets Europe

    Brussels Playbook: Macron ‘unfollows’ Washington — Ukraine’s spring surprise — ChatGPT meets Europe

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    GOOD MORNING and happy Easter! This is Nick Vinocur, bringing you Playbook from an unusually sunny Brussels. We sometimes poke fun at the grisaille around here, but this week the country outdid itself: glorious sunshine for days in the Ardennes, where your author spent a family holiday. I heartily recommend a visit to the Grottes de Han — a sprawling cave system southwest of Charleroi that was an unforgettable sight for me and my 4-year-old daughter. Strongly recommend. As you enjoy the final hours of the long weekend, here’s the news …

    DRIVING THE DAY: MACRON AND CHINA

    MACRON INTERVIEW PROMPTS OUTCRY: Speaking to POLITICO and other media outlets on his way back from last week’s trip to China, French President Emmanuel Macron gave an interview that’s raising big questions about the transatlantic relationship, Taiwan and the concept of “strategic autonomy” for the EU.

    ICYMI: Yes, it’s one of those Macron interviews. Read the full story here (or here en français) by our Editor-in-Chief Jamil Anderlini and Senior France Correspondent Clea Caulcutt. Here are the key lines …

    On strategic autonomy: Macron emphasized the need for Europe to develop independent capabilities that would enable the EU to become the world’s “third superpower” — alongside the United States and China, presumably. The “greatest risk” Europe faces, he said, is that the bloc “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevent it from building strategic autonomy.”

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    On the transatlantic relationship: Macron said “the paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers.”

    On Taiwan, which the US has pledged to defend: “The question Europeans need to answer,” Macron said, is “is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction.” 

    Rubio weighs in: In response to Macron’s comments, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, dropped a video in which he says: “If our allies’ position is, in fact, Macron speaks for all of Europe, and their position now is they are not going to pick sides between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, maybe we shouldn’t be picking sides either. Maybe we should basically say we’re going to focus on Taiwan and the threats that China poses, and you guys handle Ukraine.”

    He added: “So we need to find out: Does Macron speak for Macron or does Macron speak for Europe?”

    That question was zooming around European capitals Sunday night, with diplomats texting my colleague Stuart Lau to share reactions. 

    Shade: “It’s hard to see how the EU was strengthened by the visits” of Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China last week, wrote one EU diplomat who was not authorized to speak on the record. “China did not move one inch on Russia/Ukraine and created contrast between the two European leaders, even appearing to get an audience for its view on security in the Taiwan Straits.”

    Sari Arho Havrén, adjunct professor at the George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies focusing on China, told Playbook that “Macron is giving Xi exactly what Xi wanted: trade to make China’s economy stronger, but also dividing and making Europe weaker in Beijing’s eyes.”

    On Macron’s ‘superpower’ comment, she added: “Europe lacks pretty much all superpower attributes apart from the big single market.”

    Noah Barkin, senior adviser for Rhodium Group and a visiting senior fellow at GMF, wrote in: “Macron is espousing a vision of the world that is not shared in other European capitals. In doing so, he risks dividing Europe and complicating relations with the most transatlantic U.S. administration that we have seen in many years.”

    French pushback: France’s former ambassador to the U.S. disagreed. In response to a tweet questioning France’s commitment to Taiwan, Gérard Araud wrote: “First, he [Macron] didn’t say that. Secondly, our alliance doesn’t cover Asia.”

    Playbook is getting a case of déjà vu. Doesn’t this feel a bit like back in 2019 when Macron told the Economist that NATO was experiencing “brain death?” Or when, following the AUKUS spat, he withdrew France’s ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia? 

    As in those episodes, Macron is broadcasting France’s independence from a U.S.-led alliance. But unlike other examples where the issue may have been more symbolic, this one has a clear question at its core: Is Europe’s alliance with the United States limited to Europe and its neighborhood, or does it extend to the Asia-Pacific region?

    Now read this: Macron got a rockstar welcome in Guangzhou, where he fielded (carefully selected) questions from students at Sun Yat-sen University. “His star turn and spontaneous popularity also contrasted with China’s wooden communist leaders, none of whom have even half the charisma of Macron and who are generally only greeted with enthusiasm when it is in the job description of the crowd,” Jamil and Clea write. Ouch.

    RUSSIAN WAR LATEST

    ‘SPRING IS COMING’ — UKRAINE TOUTS ‘SURPRISE’ AMID US INTEL LEAK: In a slickly produced video published Sunday, Ukraine’s defense ministry hints at an upcoming operation that would put Western training and supplies to use in its war with Russia. Watch the video, titled “Spring is coming,” here.

    Intel dump: It’s no surprise that Ukraine has been preparing a counter-offensive of some type. But the video — coupled with reports on a massive dump of U.S. intelligence that’s been circulating online for weeks, but only recently picked up by big media outlets — seems to remove any “if” on whether an offensive will take place. What’s unknown is “how” and “when.”

    What’s in the leaked docs: The reports go into substantial detail about the state and capabilities of Ukraine’s armed forces, as well as the composition of battle groups. To wit: the composition in armor of one brigade, the 82nd, decked out with the best Western militaries have to offer. They also show how deeply U.S. intelligence has penetrated Russian command-and-control centers — warning Ukraine of exact targets for upcoming strikes. (Playbook has not reviewed the documents ourselves.)

    Spying, much? Yet the leak brings up awkward questions about U.S. spying, particularly when it comes to allies. One leaked document obtained by Reuters concerns deliberations among South Korean officials about sales of artillery shells to the United States, which the officials were concerned would be sent to Ukraine. Based on “signals intelligence” — aka intercepts — the document prompted Seoul to say it wanted to discuss the “issues raised” with the U.S.

    Rings a bell: If this feels familiar, that’s because it’s reminiscent of Edward Snowden’s massive dump of U.S. National Security Agency documents in 2013, which irked Europeans. This time around, EU leaders are spared, but Ukraine’s military top brass is not, according to the New York Times, which first reported on the trove of intel. So far, there is no firm indication of who carried out the original leak — the document lay unnoticed for weeks on Discord, until a user posted it on Telegram and journalists became aware.

    Tail risk: At the very least, the leaks are likely to make the Americans much more cautious on how they share intelligence, including with allied countries. That’s not ideal in a crucial planning stage, heading into a likely spring offensive.

    What the leaks don’t say is when Ukraine’s counter-offensive will take place, or how it will sustain its pace given the high rates of shells expended each day on the front. Another report out over the weekend, again from the Times, casts doubt on Europe’s ability to replenish Ukraine’s supply of shells at anywhere near the rate at which they are being used.

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    IN OTHER NEWS

    ESTONIA’S KALLAS SECURES COALITION: About a month after the election, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of the center-right Reform Party has reached an agreement with the centrist Estonia 200 Party and the Social Democratic Party to form a coalition government. Kallas is expected to keep her job. Laura Kayali has a write-up.

    EU RISKS LOSING ENERGY ALLY: Last year’s high-profile gas deal with Azerbaijan was supposed to help the EU wean itself off Russian fossil fuels and keep supplies flowing in the short term. But Brussels’ bid to position itself as a peacemaker in the war-torn South Caucasus, and the eagerness of MEPs to call out human rights abuses, have angered Baku, which says the bloc could be to blame if a new conflict breaks out with neighboring Armenia.

    European boots on the ground: “We were hoping for a different scenario with Baku,” a senior EU official admitted after Azerbaijan blasted the 100-strong border monitoring mission dispatched from European countries to Armenia earlier this year. Experts warn that more violence could force Europe to distance itself from the energy-rich nation it had hoped would help it weather Russia’s war on Ukraine. My colleague Gabriel Gavin has written about the dilemma.

    RT DECLARED BANKRUPT IN FRANCE: A French court has officially declared Kremlin-backed media outlet RT France bankrupt, the company’s President Xenia Fedorova announced on Friday. In March last year, the EU banned Russian government-funded media like Sputnik and RT from broadcasting in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Laura Kayali has the story.

    CHATGPT FACES REGULATORY WHIRLWIND: The world’s most famous chatbot has set itself up for a rough ride with Europe’s powerful privacy watchdogs, my colleagues Clothilde Goujard and Gian Volpicelli report. Italy imposed a temporary ban last month on the grounds that it could violate Europe’s privacy rulebook — but that’s just the start of its likely troubles. Prepare to see headaches across the bloc, as the cutting-edge technology is irking governments over risks ranging from data protection to misinformation, cybercrime, fraud and cheating on tests.

    BRUSSELS CORNER

    WHAT’S OPEN ON EASTER MONDAY? Not much. If you’re in Belgium, expect most shops to be closed today. But if you’re in a pinch, the Delhaize and Carrefour stores that are usually open on Sundays will be operating, as will “guard duty” pharmacies.

    DELHAIZE STRIKE UPDATE: If you’re like me, you’ve been experiencing the ongoing Delhaize strikes first hand. Workers have been carrying out industrial action after the company announced it was going to turn its stores into franchises, operated by independent buyers, leading to the loss of an estimated 280 jobs (though the company is touting 72 new roles), according to l’Echo. Forty-six Delhaize stores remain closed across Belgium following court-ordered reopenings.

    ICYMI — WHERE TO GO EASTER EGG HUNTING TODAY: Comic Art Museum … BELvue Museum … Chalet Robinson … Underground treasure hunt at Coudenberg Palace until April 16.

    BIRTHDAYS: MEP Magdalena Adamowicz; Former MEPs Antony Hook, Geoffrey Van Orden, Luis Garicano, Florent Marcellesi and Lorenzo Fontana; Chris Heron from Eurometaux; European Commission’s David Knight; Leader of the Democratic Party of Moldova Pavel Filip, a former PM.

    THANKS TO: Stuart Lau and our producer Jeanette Minns.

    **A message from Booking.com: Have you booked your next trip yet? Is sustainability top of mind in your trip planning? Sustainability is not just a buzzword. In fact, 4 out of 5 travelers want to travel more sustainably but almost 50% of them say there aren’t enough sustainable options available. It’s time to bridge the gap in the tourism sector where less than 1% of accommodations have obtained a sustainability certification. Booking.com’s Travel Sustainable program supports accommodations to go green and consumers to easily find sustainable options. Read what Booking.com is doing on sustainability here. You want to find out more? Come and join us during our Booking.com Policy Breakfast on 25 April for an open discussion on enabling the green transition for businesses and empowering consumers to make informed sustainable choices.**

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    Nicholas Vinocur



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

  • Playbook Deep Dive: What Trump’s indictment means

    Playbook Deep Dive: What Trump’s indictment means

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    trump audio5

    Well, I mean, in terms of the characters, yes, you’re right that this is all sort of a throwback to 2016-2018 period.

    But, you know, one of the people who’s testified twice, I believe, in front of this grand jury and who is central to this whole episode and who I believe has never spoken publicly about it is David Pecker. And so if there’s any chance that he ends up testifying at a trial or ends up speaking about his side of the story, I would be very intrigued to hear that.

    As you know, as someone who, you know, he was extremely close to Donald Trump and that’s how he got involved in this hush money payment to begin with. That’s someone I would really like to hear from at some point if there’s an opportunity to do that.

    But in terms of the sort of the legal questions that are going to come up here, there’s quite a number. But I think the biggest one is, you know, I mentioned that the indictment is sealed. We don’t know what the counts are yet, but there’s a lot of questions about how the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, constructed these charges and whether they will survive in court, because if they are what we think they’re going to be, they’re a largely untested legal theory.

    And Trump’s lawyers, of course, will try their hardest to fight them and given that they’re untested, there’s just a lot of questions about how they’ll survive. So that’s probably the biggest issue here. But then, of course, we will run into all sorts of questions about the sort of scheduling of legal proceedings and a potential trial for someone who is a presidential candidate. And that is likely to be very, very complicated. So.

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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • German Christian Democrats rewrite Merkel’s China playbook

    German Christian Democrats rewrite Merkel’s China playbook

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    BERLIN — Germany’s Christian Democrats, the country’s largest opposition group, are planning to shift away from the pragmatic stance toward China that characterized Angela Merkel’s 16 years as chancellor, claiming that maintaining peace through trade has failed.

    It’s a remarkable course change for the conservative party that pursued a strategy of rapprochement and economic interdependence toward China and Russia during Merkel’s decade and a half in power. The volte-face has been spurred by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s increasingly aggressive stance — both economically and politically — in the Asian region and beyond.

    According to a draft position paper seen by POLITICO, the conservatives say the idea of keeping peace through economic cooperation “has failed with regard to Russia, but increasingly also China.” The 22-page paper, which is to be adopted by the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group in the Bundestag around Easter, outlines key points for a new China policy.

    In a world order that is changing after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz last year announced a Zeitenwende, or major turning point, in German security policy. Economy Minister Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, in particular, have stressed the necessity of a comprehensive China strategy, an idea already mentioned in the coalition agreement to form Scholz’s government. Their ministries have elaborated two different drafts, but a comprehensive strategy is not yet in sight.

    “We realize at this point in time, with some surprise, which is why we prepared and presented this paper, that the German government is significantly behind schedule on key foreign and security policy documents,” said CDU foreign policy lawmaker Johann Wadephul.

    The foreword to the position paper states that “the rise of communist China is the central, epochal challenge of the 21st century for all states seeking to preserve, strengthen, and sustain the rules-based international order.” The CDU/CSU parliamentary group is open to working out a “national consensus” with Scholz’s government. That consensus, the group says, must be embedded in the national security strategy and in a European China strategy.

    The relationship with China is described in the same triad fashion that was formulated by the European Commission in 2019 and is in the coalition agreement of the current German government. Under this strategy, the Asian country is seen as a partner, economic competitor and systemic rival.

    But the CDU/CSU group’s paper says policy should move away from a Beijing-friendly, pragmatic stance toward China, especially on trade. “We should not close our eyes to the fact that China has shifted the balance on its own initiative and clearly pushed the core of the relationship toward systemic rivalry,” the text states.

    Such an emphasis from the conservative group is remarkable given its long-held preference for economic cooperation and political rapprochement toward both China and Russia under Merkel. Before leaving office, for example, Merkel pushed a major EU-China investment deal over the line, though it was later essentially frozen by the European Parliament due to Beijing’s sanctions against MEPs.

    “I say to this also self-critically [that] this means for the CDU/CSU a certain new approach in China policy after a 16-year government period,” Wadephul said.

    The paper calls for a “Zeitenwende in China policy,” too, concluding that Germany should respond “with the ability and its own strength to compete” wherever China seeks and forces competition; should build up its resilience and defensive capability and form as well as expand alliances and partnerships with interest and value partners; and demonstrate a willingness to partner where it is openly, transparently and reliably embraced by China.

    The CDU/CSU paper calls for a European China strategy and a “European China Council” with EU neighbors for better cooperation. A central point is also strengthening reciprocity and European as well as German sovereignty.

    “Decoupling from China is neither realistic nor desirable from a German and European perspective,” according to the text.

    To better monitor dependencies, the paper proposes an expert commission in the Bundestag that would present an annual “China check” on dependencies in trade, technology, raw materials and foreign trade, with the overall aim of developing a “de-risking” strategy.



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

  • Macron faces no-confidence votes amid nationwide protests

    Macron faces no-confidence votes amid nationwide protests

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    PARIS — Emmanuel Macron’s government faces several motions of no confidence in the National Assembly Monday after his government forced through a deeply unpopular pensions reform bill last week.

    Protesters took to the streets in major cities over the weekend, after the government invoked a controversial constitutional maneuver to pass its pensions reform bill in what was widely seen as a move likely to inflame social unrest. Industrial action is expected to disrupt public transport, refineries, universities and waste collection this week, as trade unions hope to strong-arm the government into withdrawing the pensions reform.

    On Saturday, more than 100 people were arrested in Paris after a demonstration by several thousand protesters against the reform turned violent.

    The 573 lawmakers of the French National Assembly will vote on two motions of no confidence Monday which could trigger the resignation of Macron’s Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and her government. Though the French president would not be forced to resign in case of a defeat, a successful motion of no confidence would trigger a deep political crisis for Macron.

    On Saturday, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the reform was “vital” for the country and called on MPs to “face their responsibilities,” in an interview with Le Parisien.

    “There will be no majority to bring the government down, but it will be a moment of truth,” Le Maire said with the reference to the votes on Monday. “Is it a good idea to overthrow the government and cause political disorder over the pensions reforms? The answer is clearly no,” he added.

    Macron wants to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and extend contributions for a full pension in order to balance the accounts of the pensions system. The reform is a cornerstone of the French president’s second mandate and failure to pass it would have repercussions for the rest of his mandate.

    Amid scenes of anger and rebellion in parliament, his trusted lieutenant Borne announced on Thursday the government had decided to invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass legislation without a vote, putting an end to weeks of heated and acrimonious debate. Invoking Article 49.3, however, allowed lawmakers to table a motion of no confidence within 24 hours.

    All eyes on the conservatives

    Macron’s Renaissance party lost its majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections last year and has faced several motions of no confidence in recent months. In a sign of the deepening crisis in France, it is the first time that the several opposition parties have tabled a motion of no confidence together.

    On Friday a small centrist opposition group submitted a cross-party motion supported by leftwing parties, which is also expected get the support of the far right National Rally, after RN leader Marine Le Pen announced that her party would vote for “all the motions of no confidence.”

    “A vote on this motion will enable us to put an honorable end to a deep political crisis,” said the centrist MP Bertrand Pancher as he submitted the motion.

    GettyImages 1248472200
    A police officer attempts to extinguish flames at the entrance of the town hall of the 4th arrondissement of Lyon | Jeff Pachoud/AFP via Getty Images

    Macron’s opponents need the backing of 287 MPs to topple the government — a bar they are not likely to pass given the deep political divisions in parliament. The National Assembly is split between Macron’s Renaissance coalition, the far-right National Rally and the left-wing Nupes coalition.

    In addition to getting the backing of the left and the far right, a cross-party motion would need the support of 27 conservative Les Républicains lawmakers to pass. But only 10 are planning to vote for the motion, said a conservative MP who wanted to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic in an interview with Playbook Paris.

    MPs are also expected to vote on a second motion of no confidence submitted by the National Rally, that is widely seen as unlikely to pass.

    If the government survives the votes on Monday, it will still face a wave of protests this week and the risk of more social unrest. On Friday, the hard left CGT trade union called for “visible actions” ahead of a day of nationwide protests and strikes planned for Thursday.



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

  • Brussels Playbook Munich Security Conference Special Edition: ‘Crimes against humanity’ — Slaying Goliath — Popping balloons

    Brussels Playbook Munich Security Conference Special Edition: ‘Crimes against humanity’ — Slaying Goliath — Popping balloons

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    GUTEN MORGEN, Grüß Gott and Servus from Bavaria! Welcome to our special Munich Security conference edition of Playbook with that latest news, analysis and gossip from what some affectionately refer to as the “Davos with guns” festival.

    We’re smack dab in the middle of the three-day gathering of the global security elite, where (almost) all talk is centered around the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine one year ago. Let’s dive in.

    BREAKING

    ‘CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY’: The United States has determined that Russia is committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris announced Saturday, the latest salvo in the West’s effort to hold Moscow accountable for its wartime atrocities. 

    In a marquee address at the Munich Security Conference, Harris detailed that Russia is responsible for a “widespread and systematic attack” against Ukraine’s civilian population, citing evidence of execution-style killings, rape, torture and forceful deportations — sometimes perpetrated against children. As a result, Russia has not only committed war crimes, as the administration formally concluded in March, but also illegal acts against non-combatants.

    **A message from Google: The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war have created a humanitarian disaster, damaged critical infrastructure, upended energy markets and supply chains, and left hundreds of thousands dead or wounded. See how we’re helping people affected by the war in Ukraine.**

    Here’s the line: “The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity,” Harris told the conference just now. Alex Ward has the story.

    EUROPE’S LINES

    DAVID AND GOLIATH: A year after he came to Munich looking for help as Russian tanks lined up on the Ukrainian border, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy returned via video link to open on the conference on Friday. As the war enters its second year, Zelenskyy — who in 2022 declared “someone is lying” to a Munich audience still in denial about Putin’s true intentions — turned instead to a familiar parable from the Bible.

    “The Russian Goliath has already begun to lose,” Zelenskyy said, sitting in his trademark olive green sweatshirt behind a desk in Kyiv. 

    Speed kills: Even as he thanked the U.S. and Europe for the weapons they’ve sent to help Ukraine defend itself, Zelenskyy made an urgent plea for more, stressing that “speed was crucial.”

    Butt out Belarus: He also warned President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus not to get directly involved in the war, as the bellicose Belarusian suggested he might do earlier this week. Zelenskyy said he was confident that local opposition in Belarus to participating Putin’s quest to build a new Russian empire would hold Lukashenko back.

    POT OR KETTLE? MSC chairman Christoph Heusgen asked Zelenskyy in a brief Q&A after his speech about his battle against “endemic corruption.” Given the MSC’s own struggles in that department and its recent “outreach” for Qatar, it’s a question perhaps better put to the gray-haired men behind the MSC.

    Or they could just consult McKinsey: As promised in yesterday’s Playbook our exposé on the interplay between the MSC and McKinsey is online. Over the past decade, the U.S.-based consultancy has quietly influenced the agenda of the conference, steering everything from the focus of its marquee report to the event’s program, to the guest lists. It gives McKinsey the opportunity to push narratives that serve the firm’s client base, be they in defense, the energy sector or government, people close the conference say. The full story is out now.

    NO MORE SCHOLZING: Countries able to send battle tanks to Ukraine should “actually do so now,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday, trying to rally support for a Europe-wide fleet of tank donations. Scholz, whose own dithering on the question of sending main battle tanks to Ukraine spawned the German verb scholzen (to Scholz), rebutted his critics in an address to the Munich crowd, calling out NATO partners that have overpromised and underdelivered on the tanks front.

    Olaf’s bazooka: Scholz also declared that Germany would “permanently” adhere to the NATO goal of spending 2 percent of its economic output on defense — a target that Berlin is currently set to miss this year and probably also next year, despite a massive €100 billion special fund for military investment. Of course, Germany has made similar pledges before only to break them. But still!

    Pissing on the chips: That’s what Brits would call what German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius did on Friday. While his boss was vowing German “leadership” and making new pledges, Pistorius made clear two percent wasn’t enough: “It must be clear to everyone: It will not be possible to fulfill the tasks that lie ahead of us with barely two percent,” Pistorius said. More by Hans von der Burchard

    LE SNUB: Scholz was followed onstage by French President Emmanuel Macron. But instead of a hug, a handshake or just a wave and “bonjour,” there was nothing. Rien. The two men appeared to not to have encountered one another at all, in fact, underscoring the ongoing tensions on the Paris-Berlin axis. The two have been at loggerheads for months over everything from energy policy to defense.

    For all the thinly veiled resentment and behind-the-curtain sniping on Friday, the overall message from both Macron and Scholz was one of unity and solidarity with Ukraine. How fast Ukraine will get the tanks and other weapons it needs to fend off Russia’s spring offensive is another question, however.

    ALLIANCES (AND LACK THEREOF)

    CHINA TO EUROPE: COLD WAR IS NIGH, BUT WE CAN STOP IT. China’s chief representative in Munich had his message ready for European leaders and officials: You can avert Cold War.

    “The cold war mentality is back,” Wang Yi, Beijing’s top diplomat, said. “China and Europe are two major forces, markets and civilizations in an increasingly multipolar world. The choices we make have a huge impact on where the world goes … Making the right choice is a responsibility we share,” he said.

    Dodged #1: When asked whether Wang would rule out an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese leader instead went in hard in stressing China’s position on the island’s status and slammed U.S. and allies for focusing on its integrity.

    Dodged #2: Wang did not answer the MSC’s Wolfgang Ischinger’s question whether he plans to sit down with the U.S. delegation in Munich. (The two sides have talked about a Blinken-Yi meeting for some days but there’s no signs of a breakthrough just yet.)

    One line that popped: “Any increase in China’s strength is an increase in the hope for world peace.” 

    Another line that popped: The U.S. decision to shoot down China’s surveillance balloon was “absurd and hysterical. This is 100 percent abuse of the use of force.”

    What else popped? The balloon, earlier this month.

    STOLTENBERG TURNS THE TABLES: Just minutes after China’s chief diplomat left the stage, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was quick to counter Beijing’s pleas, telling the audience it should project the lessons from Russia’s invasion in Ukraine on its dealings with China next.  

    “What is happening in Europe today … could happen in east Asia tomorrow,” the military alliance chief said, hinting at concerns about Beijing launching an invasion of Taiwan. Moscow, Stoltenberg underscored, “wants a different Europe” while Beijing “is watching closely to see the price Russia pays — or the reward it receives for its aggression.” Lili Bayer has the story.

    FINLAND STICKS WITH SWEDEN: Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin reiterated her country’s desire to join NATO together with Sweden, saying it was in “the interest of everyone.” Except, it would appear Turkey, which continues to block Sweden’s bid over Stockholm’s refusal to extradite Kurdish activists Ankara claims are terrorists.

    WHAT’S THE EU TO DO? Feed the military-industrial complex. That was the message from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who called on the defense industry in her Munich speech Saturday to “speed up the production and scale up the production” of weapons for Ukraine.

    WHAT’S THE ICC TO DO? Chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan is still insisting The Hague-based ICC is the appropriate judicial venue to hold Russia accountable for war crimes in Ukraine, telling POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer in an exclusive interview the court does have jurisdiction and can mount cases. “Of course, it’s clear. We have that jurisdiction, and we are being very active,” he said.

    PROGRAMMING

    WE’RE NOT DONE. Here’s a couple of sessions coming up that are bound to pique your interest. (Full schedule and livestream here.)

    Saturday

    — U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak explains “the U.K. in the world.” (As opposed to the usual explaining it “to” the world.)

    — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken headlines a panel on “Whole, Free, and at Peace: Visions for Ukraine.”

    — German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius discussed “Fostering Resilience in Europe’s North-East” with Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre and Latvian President Egils Levits.

    — U.S. climate envoy John Kerry talks about “Greener Pastures: Advancing Joint Climate Action.”

    — Ruslan Stefanchuk, Chairman of Ukrainian parliament and U.S. Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi on “ The Role of Parliaments in War”

    Sunday

    — EU foreign policy czar Josep Borrell on “Visions for the European Security Architecture.”

    FROM INSIDE THE HOF

    PASSLESS AGGRESSIVE: In German, “Bayerischer Hof” (the 19th century hotel that hosts the MSC) means “Bavarian court,” a nod to its founding under the patronage of King Ludwig I.

    It’s an apt venue for an event that is also run like a royal court. All participants are “personal guests” of the chairman. That includes members of the fourth estate. Those who write nice things about the event are rewarded with free access to the conference. Some are even invited to the sumptuous Schloss Elmau, “a luxury spa retreat and cultural hideaway” in the Alps, where the MSC holds its “most exclusive” gatherings for policymakers and titans of industry. 

    And then there are those of us who fall out of favor with the powers that be for committing the sin of journalism. So it was that your humble ink-stained wretch arrived in Munich to discover that his privileges had been revoked! Instead of a coveted blue pass allowing him free reign, he was handed a dreaded yellow pass for the great unwashed masses of hacks and directed to a large container half a kilometer away from the venue.

    To add insult to injury, his pass is stamped in red letters with a warning: “Escort Required.” (And no, it’s not a reference to evening entertainment.)

    Fear not, dear reader. We have our spies in the hotel feeding us the latest tidbits of what’s happening inside the Kaiser Ischinger’s royal court. Speaking of which…

    WHERE’S THE BEEF? Yesterday, multiple attendees complained that while there were no shortage of beverages inside, there was a shortage of food, which may or may not have something to do with the large American delegation in attendance.

    DISINFORMATION: We erroneously reported in yesterday’s Playbook that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba would be addressing the opening day of the conference. It was, of course, Zelenskyy.  Mea maxi culpa. The responsible party has been duly punished.

    SPOTTED: Disgraced former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, now an emissary for Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, loitering in the halls of the Bayerischer Hof.

    Over 150 guests stopped by our POLITICO and Goals House nightcap on Friday for a drink or two and good chat at the fancy Schreiberei in central Munich. Among those welcomed by POLITICO’s Florian Eder were Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo; deputy Lithuanian Foreign Minister Jonas Survila; Jörg Kukies of the German federal chancellery; Bundestag members Roderich Kiesewetter, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Sara Nani,Thomas Erndl, Andreas Scheuer, MEPs Eva Maydell and Markus Ferber; Gayle Smith, CEO of the ONE Campaign, Anja Langenbucher of the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, and author and politician Sawsan Chebli; former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, director of the School of Transnational Governance in Florence, Ngaire Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford; U.S. Assistant Secretary of Treasury Paul Rosen; former chief of the U.K.’s National Cyber Security Centre Ciaran Martin, partner at Krebs Stamos Chris Krebs; Ralph Heck of the Bertelsmann Foundation; Manuel Hartung of the Zeit-Stiftung; Lithiania’s Viktorija Urbonavičiūtė, Michael Hinterdobler of the Bavarian state government; Gavi CEO Seth Berkley; Huberta von Voss of ISD Germany; Justin Vaïsse of the Paris Peace Forum; the SWP’s Stefan Mair; Bart Kot of the  Warsaw Security Forum; Microsoft’s Christopher Sharrock; Ericsson’s Rene Summer; ITI’s Executive VP Rob Strayer; fellow journalists Gordon Repinski, Stefan Leifert, Benedikt Becker, Andrew Gray, John Hudson; POLITICO’s Matthew Karnitschnig, Jamie Dettmer, Laurens Cerulus, Hans von der Burchard, Andrew Ward and Paul McLeary. 

    OUR MUNICH PLAYBOOK wouldn’t happen without Laurens Cerulus, Cory Bennett, Heidi Vogt, Dave Brown and Jones Hayden.

    **A message from Google: Since the war began, governments, companies, civil society groups and countless others have been working around the clock to support the Ukrainian people and their institutions. At Google, we support these efforts. Our priority has been to stand by the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian government, and those who are still facing deadly attacks and the realities of life in an active war zone — and against forces seeking to undermine the peace and security of Europe and the stability of the international system. For more on how Google is helping people affected by the war in Ukraine, read here.**

    SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | Global Insider | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters

    More from …

    Matthew Karnitschnig



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    ( With inputs from : www.politico.eu )

  • Washington launches a new Google battle — with an old playbook

    Washington launches a new Google battle — with an old playbook

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    And Australia — where regulators already followed their European counterparts in forcing social media companies to pay publishers whenever their content appeared on these platforms — officials are also mulling similar changes to create bespoke rules for tech giants after the country’s competition regulator admitted its current powers hadn’t kept pace with industry.

    “Google has leveraged its data and acquisitions to dominate the adtech market,” Rod Rims, the former head of Australia’s competition and consumer protection agency, told POLITICO. “The huge number of acquisitions that companies like Google and Facebook have made raises the question: Do you need any extra hurdles if you’re so dominant?”

    The tech giants simply grew too fast over the past two decades for antitrust law to keep up. And while the U.S. is now trying retroactively to keep them in check, regulators elsewhere can now do so in advance.

    For the world of antitrust officials, this shift — known as ex ante rulemaking, or efforts to stop potentially anticompetitive behavior before it gets out of hand — is a recognition the current enforcement system is too slow, too complex and too cumbersome to stop companies from scooping up smaller rivals or crowding out new markets before policymakers can respond in time.

    In Europe, for instance, the European Commission has already fined Google roughly 10 billion euros for three separate charges of antitrust abuse dating back a decade. Yet those investigations linked to the company’s respective Android mobile software, search products and online advertising services took years to complete, giving the company time to build up an overwhelming dominance.

    Alphabet — Google’s parent company that denies any wrongdoing in its stable of antitrust cases worldwide, including the most recent charges from Washington — also appealed Brussels’ decisions, dragging out those rulings for years.

    That’s why European policymakers shifted gears to create a new competition rulebook aimed at clamping down on problems before they even arise.

    The goal: to create rules more akin to ongoing oversight within the financial services industry that can pinpoint potential abuse before it requires lengthy investigations. For international authorities, it’s less about dawn raids and glitzy press conferences, and more about everyday regulatory supervision to take the sting out of Big Tech’s dominance.

    Here’s how it will work. Within the EU, a small number of (almost exclusively American) companies will be defined as so-called gatekeepers, or firms that hold a disproportionately dominant position within markets like search, online advertising or mobile app stores. These tech giants will then have to abide by a tougher set of rules than smaller rivals, including bans on so-called self-preferencing, or treating their own products and services more favorably compared with those of others.

    That means Apple will likely have to allow people to download apps from rival online stores. Alphabet will almost certainly be forced to open up its online advertising — and the lucrative data that underpins it — to outsiders. And Meta must allow other messaging services to connect, directly, to WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger.

    “Large gatekeeper platforms have prevented businesses and consumers from the benefits of competitive digital markets,” Margrethe Vestager, Europe’s competition czar, said when announcing the changes last year. “What we want is simple: fair markets also in digital.”

    U.S. policymakers are well aware they are behind their international counterparts.

    Stalled bipartisan legislation, known as the American Innovation and Choice Online Act supported by the likes of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), would similarly outlaw much of Big Tech’s alleged anticompetitive behavior. That would include stopping these companies from preferencing their own services over those of rivals, as well as banning current limits on how smaller competitors use the dominant services to target potential customers.

    Yet even before Republicans regained control over the House last month, the new U.S. antitrust proposals had run into industry-led efforts that claimed they would harm innovation, restrict consumer choice and undermine national security. Now, expectations are that U.S. enforcers like Jonathan Kanter, head of the Department of Justice’s antitrust unit, will have to work with the powers they already have — and not bank on upgraded rules fit for the digital world.

    “We’re going to have to work with the rules we have,” a Capitol Hill staffer told POLITICO on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

    Still, the new antitrust powers dreamed up in Brussels, London and Canberra aren’t the slam dunk that many of those countries’ officials are hoping for. And while some in the U.S. would welcome such bespoke enforcement regimes, U.S. judges would almost certainly throw them out because existing domestic law makes it illegal to treat some companies differently from others.

    In the U.K., for instance, regulators plan to create bespoke competition rules for specific tech giants — with so-called strategic market importance, according to the upcoming British legislation that may be published as soon as the week of Feb. 13.

    That follows repeated evidence from British authorities that the likes of Apple, Alphabet and Meta hold disproportionate power in the local market in everything from advertising to app stores to social media. The companies deny any accusations they have abused their dominance positions.

    U.K. officials believe regulating Amazon and its e-commerce empire will require a different set of rules to overseeing Apple and its increasingly digital empire. That requires individual antitrust guardrails for each firm, or a customized playbook to keep a close tab on how each company expands.

    For Brussels, whose enforcers still have a series of legacy antitrust cases into Silicon Valley’s biggest names (the likes of Meta, Apple and Alphabet deny any wrongdoing,) the shift from lengthy investigations to more hands-on daily supervision is also still a work in progress.

    European officials are currently deciding which tech giants will be designated as so-called gatekeepers. EU lawyers and their counterparts at the companies are haggling over whether a firm’s entire operations or only specific services like an app store or social network should be included in the new rules, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions.

    “It’s going to take time to stop people thinking that’s just about investigations,” said one of the EU officials who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “We’re in a new era. We have to get our heads around that.”

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    #Washington #launches #Google #battle #playbook
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

  • Borrow the opposition playbook? House GOP weighs the ultimate ‘tit for tat’

    Borrow the opposition playbook? House GOP weighs the ultimate ‘tit for tat’

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    “They’ve almost changed the rules,” House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) told POLITICO. “[Are] we going to continue that pattern? Look, we want to get as much information as we can get, and they’ve written a new playbook, so we’ll have to talk about it as a committee and as a conference.”

    Republican leaders are already navigating intra-party tensions over which tactics to embrace. They are under fierce pressure from their right flank and the party’s base to go scorched-earth against the Biden administration — with some already agitating for impeachments. But centrists and institutional-minded Republicans, fresh off the sting of a disappointing midterm, are warning that carbon-copying Democrats isn’t the way to go.

    “I think mostly what the Democrats did as precedent is weaken Congress … I don’t think they did a very good job,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), who is joining the Oversight Committee. “If we get into a tit for tat — I don’t think that will serve Republicans, Congress or the American people well.”

    In some ways, it’s a challenge Congress faces every time the House changes hands. Lawmakers intensely rely on precedent, taking inspiration from their predecessors regardless of party or even if they previously railed against it. To Hill veterans, it’s almost a cliche: when one Congress deploys an oversight tactic, it becomes part of the toolbox for every subsequent Congress — particularly if it is tested and approved by federal courts in D.C.

    “Turnabout is fair play, and they were warned this at the time — on everything from kicking members off committees … two impeachment efforts, everything else,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said about the possibility that Republicans use Democrats’ tactics against them.

    Democrats acknowledge that they approached, and even expanded, the outer limits of Congress’ investigative powers. But they say investigating an attempt by Trump and his allies to derail the transfer of presidential power, and the violent attack on the Capitol that followed, called for them to push the boundaries.

    Doug Letter, the top lawyer for the House under former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and an architect of the legal battles to empower the Jan. 6 select committee, defended the panel’s investigative tactics that lawmakers had previously used only sparingly.

    “It’s hard to think of a whole lot of congressional investigations that are going to be like the January 6th one, that are going to need that kind of stuff,” Letter said in an interview, pointing specifically to the panel’s voluminous subpoenas for phone records from third-party carriers like Verizon and T-Mobile.

    But he also said that he anticipated Republicans would seek to deploy their own battery of oversight tools, some likely aided by the battles Letter himself won on behalf of the Democratic House.

    “We obviously live in a democracy,” Letter said. “Those are the people in power.”

    In court filings, Letter emphasized Congress’ broad ability to conduct investigations into matters of national significance. He frequently defended the panel against dozens of lawsuits brought by figures like former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, the Republican National Committee and Trump himself.

    Time and again, judges agreed that the panel was operating properly on matters of grave national significance.

    That included last year, when then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) unsuccessfully argued in an amicus brief for Trump ally Steve Bannon that the committee shouldn’t be granted certain powers as he had not appointed any members to it — a result of McCarthy’s decision to boycott the panel after Pelosi tossed some of his original picks.

    Republicans’ tactical options aren’t limited to those the Jan. 6 committee deployed: Democrats booted Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) from committees for incendiary rhetoric aimed at colleagues. (Both Greene and Gosar will sit on the Oversight panel this Congress.) Democrats also subpoenaed and won a legal fight to obtain Trump’s tax returns.

    A House Democratic aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly, predicted Republicans will use some tactics against them but warned the “flip side is true as well.”

    “Republicans set the playbook, and Trump set the playbook, for how to defend against some of this, get it in court and tie it up. … That sword cuts both ways from them. I’ve been around the Hill long enough to know what goes around comes around,” the aide added.

    So far, Republicans have embraced two plays Democrats used: First, McCarthy is vowing to prevent Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) from getting Intelligence Committee seats, something he can do unilaterally as speaker due to the nature of that panel. He’s also promised to keep Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) from getting a Foreign Affairs Committee seat, which will likely spark a House floor showdown.

    Secondly, Republicans green-lit a sprawling select subcommittee that will probe the “weaponization” of the federal government, including current federal investigations, the Justice Department, the FBI and the intelligence community. The controversial panel, a demand by some of McCarthy’s hardline detractors during the 15-ballot speakership fight, will be under the stewardship of Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

    McCarthy, for now, says Democrats will get to pick their members for that panel. Under the rules for the “weaponization” panel, Jordan and New York Rep. Jerry Nadler — the top Democrat on Judiciary — automatically get seats. Then of the 13 additional members McCarthy names, five are in consultation with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

    “The other side will get to name their members on the committee. It won’t be handpicked by me and denying the Democrats their voice,” McCarthy has told reporters.

    Another area to watch will be how Republicans use their subpoena power, both in compelling witnesses and obtaining records from third parties.

    Comer noted that he thought Democrats have “set a lot of precedents,” pointing to both their use of subpoenas and their use of contempt of Congress.

    Both Bannon and former Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro faced federal charges for defying subpoenas from the Jan. 6 select committee. DOJ declined to prosecute two others held in contempt by the House: Meadows and Trump social media adviser Dan Scavino.

    While Democrats focused on phone records, Comer has his own target: bank records, which he noted it’s “very likely” he will need to subpoena. He’s already re-upped his request to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for so-called suspicious activity reports tied to the president’s son, Hunter, and a network of associates. The financial reports, filed routinely by banks, often don’t indicate wrongdoing but can be a basis for further investigation.

    “We want specific [financial] transactions,” Comer said. “I don’t want this thing to keep growing and growing and they never end.”

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    #Borrow #opposition #playbook #House #GOP #weighs #ultimate #tit #tat
    ( With inputs from : www.politico.com )