Tag: Deficit

Addressing A Deficit

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Architect Dr Sameer Hamdani’s book on sectarian reconciliation in Kashmir is a Himalayan contribution in offering a narrative purged from bias and slants, writes Raashid Maqbool
Hakim Sameer Hamdani’s book on Kashmir’s sectarian reconcilation being launched in Srinagar in March 2023. KL Image Fayaz Ahmad Najar
Generations in Kashmir have grown up on folklore grapevine apparently aimed at retaining the rightful ground of truth and righteousness. These are basically divisive tools for othering people. These are as common among Sunnis as they are within Shia Muslim sect in Kashmir.
These ‘anecdotes’ have been fed to generations by the family and the community as a result of which they grow up trying to make sense of things around them. Generated by the myriad auto-piloted machinations of, what Sameer Hamdani, describes as the dapan tradition, within and outside Kashmir, these tales have shaped up initial perceptions of generations about each other as two communities.
I think these stories have very strong localized contexts rooted in the socio-political history of the respective places.
A Medieval Mess+-shia
In the Kashmir case, most of these twisted and fabricated stories can be traced to the happenings in the medieval period in which the foundation of our Muslim identity was laid.
Many deep grudges between the two communities discussed in Hamdani’s book, Shi’ism in Kashmir: A History of Sunni-Shia Rivalry and Reconciliation, emanate from what happened or didn’t happen and should have otherwise happened during that period. Our classical works of history, even some “iconic” and widely referred ones, are replete with examples of selective exposure of “facts” and even of deliberate de-contextualisation. Therefore, much of our scholarship and understanding of the past that shapes our sense of identity and belonging even today is marred by bitter dissension. The fractured narrations of past events supplied and reinforced by such loaded sources often throw up scenarios in which our community-specific and collective vulnerabilities are exposed and exploited.
I don’t intend to debate the quotient of impartiality that an account of history should carry. Instead, I want to make a point that in order to have a comprehensive view of past events we need to have different points of view in front of us. Unfortunately, many works of history that followed the widely accepted “seminal” books and borrowed heavily from them, failed to critically engage with these texts and peddled the twisted narratives as truth. The sectarian question particularly was bundled under distorted details, skewed narratives, and pejorative remarks. This question would either be ignored or would be mishandled. A bold and scholarly approach to this part of Kashmir’s history was overdue.

This is where Sameer’s book becomes crucial.
Earlier Attempts
There have been some attempts earlier towards presenting an alternative view to some of the “established” facts of our history and also to provide supplementary information missing in our so-called “iconic” works about this sensitive topic.
The first step was taken by Sameer’s grandfather Hakeem Safdar Hamdani in the 1970s by publishing a concise history of Shia in Kashmir. It had certain flaws which were removed when a comprehensive edition of the book, with references and annotations, was published by Sameer Hamdani and Maqbool Sajid in 2013.
Subsequently, Munshi Ishaq’s diary was published by his son (late) Munshi Ghulam Hassan and another book highlighted some glimpses of Shia history by Moulvi Ghulam Ali Gulzar. Recent in the series is Justice Hakeem Imtiyaz Hussain’s book on the history of Shias in Kashmir. He first published a concise two-volume book in English and in 2022 released the first volumes of its Urdu version, and four more are expected to come. In almost all of these works the focus has been to correct the historical narrative and balance the story, though with an obvious Shia slant.
What makes Sameer’s book unique and significant is his scholarly approach to the problem.
Sameer does not merely dish out facts to his readers, he instead weaves them into a thread that flows throughout his work highlighting the occasions of rivalries and reconciliation between the two sects. The author elucidates the complexities of historical events through proper contextualisation. While dislodging the dominant narratives about sectarian conflagration through his meticulous contestations he doesn’t seem to impose the alternative view, rather he helps it evolve through critical engagement.
Sameer starts to deconstruct the story right from the beginning. His critical analysis of the contested historiographic or hagiographic works of the early Muslim period reveals the attempt of an otherwise celebrated man, Azam Dedhmari to give a sectarian spin to the beginning of Muslim rule in Kashmir. “By doing away with any hint of Shi’i-ness in visiting the beginning of Muslim rule in Kashmir, Dedhmari systematically frames the foundation of Muslim rule in Kashmir as a Sunni enterprise,” Sameer wrote. “Later in the text when he does visit the origin of Shi’ism in Kashmir he links it to intrigue and deceit.”
While the author exposes the distortions by Khuihami and the polemical approach of Dedhmari, the author does not miss mentioning the nuanced approach adopted by Dedhmari’s contemporary Abul Qasim Mohammad Aslam towards the Shia sect.
Removing the thick layers from the Shia-Sunni rivalry in Kashmir, Sameer situates it less in the religious realm and more in the power politics of different Sufi orders who were competing over the supremacy of their respective factions.
He draws attention to the rivalries between different Sufi orders and shows how the tussle between the elites wielding power or aspiring power is wrapped in sectarian clashes.
While debunking the imaginary rivalry between Sheikh Hamza Makhdoom and Mir Shamsuddin Araqi, for example, Sameer reveals many discrepancies and paradoxes in the hagiographic accounts of two ardent disciples of Sheikh: Baba Davood Khaki and Haider Tulmuli. Despite the marked difference between their time periods the two revered figures have been shown as contemporaries and stories are weaved around them and even about their showdown that has travelled through generations. While signalling a possible reworking of a historical figure like Sheikh Makhdoom by his disciples who were involved in negotiations with Emperor Akbar regarding the removal of Check sultans, Sameer finds it intriguing. Again it indicates that the objective behind stoking the sectarian fire during those tumultuous times was more political than religious.
Hakim Sameer Hamdani (author)
Citing examples from political classes like Checks and other nobles Sameer reveals how in the pursuit of power blood relations and sectarian denominations became meaningless. The religious and political elite and also the business class from both communities defined the moments of schism and harmony depending on the chances of disparity or compatibility in their interest. Common people were either largely missing from the scene or they are seen only as pawns or victims of the game.
Sameer has displayed his integrity to facts, rather than giving in to any possible bias, when he looks at the personality of Mir Araki from both Shia and Sunni sources. While mentioning Araki’s “charisma” he does not omit the mention of his “idiosyncracies”. He talks about the incident of the burning of Sililat-al-Zahab and Araqi’s “harshness of conduct in dealing with the rival Sufi orders.”
I see it also as an exercise of proper conflict mapping. It enhances our understanding of the rift by situating it in the larger context of regional power play and class dynamics. Better mapping of a conflict leads to a clearer understanding of the mess and paves way for resolution or conflict transformation. Sameer rues the fact that in medieval histories, “Shi’i and Sunni identity is articulated in opposition to one another, rather than on the basis of similarities within each group.”
Rare Insights
Besides, the industrious work gives deep insights into Shia society. The author discusses the discord within the Shia community in detail and also highlights its repercussions on the community’s life. This part explains the disenfranchisements and deprivations of the community because of the reasons within. It also creates scope for introspection and course correction.
Sameer has documented many perennial aspects of Shia life in Kashmir that are central to its existence. The phyeri circuit, peers, crafts persons and marsiya khwani are some examples. These might appear to some as peripheral to the theme of the book but Sameer has linked them to the narrative thread like a master storyteller. His architectural skills have been put to the best of their use here.
Kashmiri Marsiya no doubt is part of the literature of mourning produced globally by Muslims, however, it has a definite indigenous character that makes it unique. By exploring its evolution during different regimes Sameer highlights its importance not only as a ritual but more significantly as an act of preserving the identity and articulating grief caused by tyrannical power structures. This aspect surely warrants more inquiry.
The Muslim Unity
Sameer Hamdani book on Kashmir Shia Sunni relations (2023)
On the Muslim unity issue, for example, there is no denial, as the author notes, post-revolution Iran propelled it but at the same time, there were local initiatives like Majlis-e-Tahafuz etc., even before the revolution that played a significant role in propagating and safeguarding values of unity and sectarian harmony among masses. The Iranian regime post revolution, gave such initiatives and sensibilities a currency and even jurisprudential backup.
Again the role and contribution of reformist and socio-educational movements like Tanzeem-ul-Makatib also need to be analysed while assessing the changing social dynamics of the community. And similarly, the Najaf-Qom binary needs to be seen in the light of the historical process that brought Qom to the centre stage of the Shia world and consequently increased its influence in Shia communities. The author referred to this influence and its impact in Kashmir in the last chapter of the book.
(This is a hugely edited version of the review speech that scholar journalist Raashid Maqbool made at the book launch in Srinagar.)

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#Addressing #Deficit
( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

April 1, 2023
Biden’s new deficit hawk persona has some progressives feeling some bad deja vu

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The growing fixation on the deficit is notable for a White House that championed an expansive economic agenda, including trillions of dollars in emergency deficit spending that, it says, proved critical to fighting the pandemic and revitalizing the economy.
The rhetorical shift has quietly worried some progressive-minded Democrats who warn it could undermine the case for future crisis aid — or backfire on Biden himself if the U.S. sinks into a recession that results in greater government spending and fewer tax receipts, driving the deficit higher.
But Biden has leaned enthusiastically into the deficit focus, driven by what advisers described in large part as a political calculation aimed at bolstering his economic record, winning over middle-of-the-road voters, and bludgeoning the GOP over its own deficit-busting policies in the process.
“There’s a salience to this right now,” said one White House official. “The political argument over deficits and spending is about two competing visions.”
Part of what’s driving Biden to home in on the deficit are the coming showdowns with the GOP later this year over the debt ceiling and federal budget.
The president has accused the GOP of demanding spending cuts while backing policies that would add $3 trillion to the national debt. In particular, he’s singled out their plans to roll back taxes on the wealthy and prescription drug reforms projected to ease the deficit. And he’s challenged House Republicans to release their own detailed budget proposal.
Biden’s deficit focus also serves as a preview of what advisers hope will be a clear line of attack in a potential 2024 rematch against former President Donald Trump. Biden himself has noted that “in the previous administration, America’s deficit went up every year, four years in a row.”
A White House spokesperson downplayed the recent uptick in deficit rhetoric, calling the issue a longstanding focus for Biden dating back to the Obama administration. And, so far, some progressives are willing to chalk it all up to political gamesmanship.

“It feels like more of a rhetorical point about the absurdity of Republican policies than an agenda,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, summing up the approach as, “We’ll steal your argument and make you look foolish.”
Still, Biden’s sharper approach toward the deficit of late has troubled other progressives, who fear it signals a surrender of any future willingness to use government support to help in tough economic times.
They note that most voters don’t vote on deficit concerns, and fear echoes of the Obama administration, when the White House spent precious time and resources making concessions to Republicans in hopes of a deficit reduction deal only to see one never materialize.
“You obviously worry. There’s a history here,” said Dean Baker, senior economist at the progressive Center for Economic and Policy Research. “I don’t think we’re likely to be there again, but if you did have some serious deficit reduction, we could see it really hitting the economy.”
Stephanie Kelton, an economist at Stony Brook University who advised Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential run, said Biden’s deficit rhetoric could complicate his defense of ambitious economic spending down the road. The administration’s student debt relief plan, for example, is projected to balloon the deficit by $400 billion over a decade — more than the entire savings created by last year’s Inflation Reduction Act.
The expiration of Trump-era pandemic relief spending helped drive down the deficit during Biden’s first two years. But much of the major legislation he’s signed since then, including investments in semiconductor manufacturing and infrastructure, are expected to add to the deficit in the coming years.
In addition, if the U.S. does hit a recession, the slowdown would naturally result in higher spending on government programs and lower tax revenue, driving up the deficit on its own.
“This is the most anticipated recession in the history of the country, and if it finally happens, I promise you the deficit is going to go much higher on its own,” Kelton said. “Might as well anticipate that and not talk yourself into a situation where you told everybody to evaluate you on your ability to keep bringing the deficit down.”
The White House has dismissed concerns about the risk of a recession, arguing that all the major indicators show a robust economy. Officials also said the administration draws a distinction between “long-term programmatic spending” that should be paid for, and “emergency spending,” like bills to fight the pandemic and aid Ukraine, that are not. The overarching focus on the issue, they added, is aimed at showing that it’s possible to reduce the deficit while strengthening government programs, rather than gutting them.
“[Biden] wants to reduce the deficit by having a real conversation about reforming the tax code, by cutting wasteful spending that we make to large corporations,” one White House official said. “He’s not interested in having a deficit reduction conversation that’s about cutting programs Americans really count on.”
Indeed, despite broader wariness of deficit talk, Biden’s refusal to abandon the remainder of his far-reaching Build Back Better agenda has eased concerns among most Democrats that Biden’s rhetoric is much more than a political tactic.
Biden is expected to follow through on his State of the Union vow to propose boosting taxes on billionaires, a revenue-raising move that effectively mainstreams an idea long popular in progressive circles. And he’s continued to push for expansive policies like reviving the expanded Child Tax Credit and instituting universal paid leave, even with no path to passing them through a divided Congress.
He has also stood firm on his pledge not to touch entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, more recently expanding his criticism of Republicans’ budget ideas to include warnings that the party might seek cuts to Obamacare or the Medicaid program.
White House allies said they expect the president’s forthcoming budget proposal will only serve to reinforce that more substantive vision — and as long as it keeps Republicans on the defensive, they’re happy to have Biden talk about the deficit as much as he wants.
“This White House is the opposite of chastened from its first two years agenda,” Green said. “They know what’s popular and they want to run on it.”
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 28, 2023
Pakistan’s current account deficit shrinks 90% to USD 0.24 billion in January

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Islamabad: Cash-strapped Pakistan’s current account deficit shrank 90.2 per cent to USD 0.24 billion in January from USD 2.47 billion in the same month last year, the data shared by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed on Monday.
“Current Account Deficit (CAD) recorded USD 0.2 billion in Jan 2023 against a deficit of USD 2.5 billion in Jan 2022,” the central bank said in a brief statement on Twitter.
The decrease in the deficit is also 16.55 per cent lower than December when the SBP announced that the deficit was USD 0.29 billion.
The deficit was recorded as import restrictions continue to persist amid a balance of payments crisis that has brought the country on the verge of default, Dawn newspaper reported.
Pakistan has a chronic balance of payments problem which has exacerbated in the last year, with the country’s forex reserves declining to critical levels. As of February 10, the central bank had only USD 3.2 billion in reserves, enough to cover barely three weeks of imports.
To stem dollar outflows, the government has imposed restrictions, allowing imports of only essential food items and medicines until a lifeline bailout is agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is seen as essential for the country to stave off default.
Ismail Iqbal Securities’ Head of Research Fahad Rauf said the shrinking current account deficit was “not an achievement but a result of low reserves,” the paper reported.
The government’s strategy to restrict imports in order to safeguard reserves has turned out to be a double-edged sword, however, as several industries rely on imported inputs to continue operations.

As a result, multiple companies across sectors have either suspended operations or scaled down production levels, leading to layoffs.
The latest data shows that the country’s current account deficit during the first seven months of the current fiscal year stood at USD 3.8 billion, which equates to a decline of 67.13 per cent compared to July-Jan FY-21-22.
During January, USD 3.92 billion worth of goods were imported, down 7.3 per cent from the last month. On the other hand, exports also declined, clocking in at USD 2.21 billion, down 4.29 per cent from the preceding month’s USD 2.31 billion.
Meanwhile, workers’ remittances stood at USD 1.89 billion, declining 9.89 per cent compared to USD 2.1 billion in December, according to the paper.
Pakistan heavily relies on remittances apart from exports and foreign loans for its foreign exchange reserves.
Pakistan faces a crippling economic crisis, with decades-high inflation and critically low foreign exchange reserves depleted by continued debt repayment obligations
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

February 20, 2023
Deficit set to hit $1.4T this year amid persistent inflation, federal experts say

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Deficits as a share of the economy are expected to grow from 5.3 percent this year to 6.9 percent of GDP in a decade, “a level exceeded only five times since 1946,” the independent budget office noted on Wednesday.
Debt held by the public is also expected to reach its highest level ever recorded in the next 10 years, hitting 118 percent of GDP in 2033. The debt could skyrocket to 195 percent of GDP by 2053, thanks to growing interest costs and increased mandatory spending on programs like Medicare and Social Security, CBO analysts said.
Inflation will “gradually” slow this year as demand starts to sync more closely with supply. But the budget office projects that inflation will be higher this year and next year than originally anticipated, with the Federal Reserve likely hitting its target inflation rate of 2 percent in 2027.
Just last spring, the budget office said inflation would likely cool to the Central Bank’s target sometime after 2024, after initially predicting prices would reach that point by the end of last year.
Due to the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate hikes, economic activity is also expected to stagnate this year, with falling inflation and rising unemployment. The unemployment rate is projected to climb from 3.6 percent at the end of 2022 to more than 5 percent by the end of this year.
Real GDP growth is expected to rebound as the Central Bank eases up on interest rate hikes, averaging 2.4 percent annually through 2027.
The budget office cautioned that its economic projects are subject to change based on a variety of factors, including fluctuations in the labor market and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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( With inputs from : www.politico.com )

February 16, 2023
J&K Beset With Unemployment, Development Deficit, Administrative Apathy: Tanvir Sadiq

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SRINAGAR: The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference Chief Spokesperson and In Charge Constituency Zadibal Tanvir Sadiq on Sunday chaired a convention of party functionaries in Dug Mohalla, Rainawari in Zadibal Constituency. On the occasion he welcomed prominent businessman and social activist Irshad Ahmad into the party.
Addressing the workers Tanvir said that the government was busy swelling its coffers, but when it comes to passing on the benefits to the poor, it sidesteps its responsibility. “Despite charging hefty amounts from consumers, the rampant erratic power supply and unscheduled cuts is taking a toll on people during the ongoing winter season. The administration is further deepening the troubles of people by providing inferior quality of rice at FCSCA ration stores. There is no accountability on the ground,” he said.
“We have long been identified with J&K’s identity, dignity and historical uniqueness. The march of gradually increasing space for democratic forces in Kashmir is a result of NC’s historical efforts, people know this. This is why NC is the first and last choice of people. People of J&K have seen political parties surface and vanish. On our part we will continue to guard our people’s trust in us with our lives,” Tanvir said.
“There is no end to government apathy. Unemployment, development deficit, and administrative apathy have become the bywords of Jammu & Kashmir. Today’s J&K is defined by anxiety, fear and insecurity and there is no end to it.”
On the occasion, Tanvir welcomed number of socio political activists into the party fold, hoping that the party will benefit from their wide ranging experience in public life. The new entrants too vowed to strengthen the party at grassroot level.

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( With inputs from : kashmirlife.net )

February 5, 2023
RBI Governor says current account deficit eminently manageable

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New Delhi: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that the current account deficit is “eminently manageable” and within the parameters of viability.
He also emphasised that in the current hostile and uncertain international environment, the Indian economy remains resilient, drawing strength from its macroeconomic fundamentals.
“Our financial system remains robust and stable. Banks and corporates are healthier than before the crisis. Bank credit is growing in double digits. India is widely seen as a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world. Our inflation remains elevated, but there has been a welcome softening during November and December 2022. Core inflation, however, remains sticky and elevated,” he said, while delivering a keynote address at the 22nd Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India- Primary Dealers Association of India’s (FIMMDA-PDAI) annual conference in Dubai.
“Despite slowing global demand weighing on merchandise exports, India’s exports of services and remittances remain strong. The net balance under services and remittances remains in a large surplus, partly offsetting the trade deficit,” he said.
The average current account deficit to GDP ratio stood at 3.3 per cent during the first half of the current fiscal, while the slowing demand is weighing on merchandise exports, Das said, adding that at the same time “our exports of services and remittances remain strong. The net balance under services and remittances remains in a large surplus, partly offsetting the trade deficit”.
Das further noted that in the aftermath of multiple shocks, the global economy is projected to contract significantly in 2023, adding at the same time that “the worst for the global economy, both in terms of growth and inflation, seems to be behind us”.
Lately, with some ebbing of Covid-related restrictions and cooling of inflation in various countries, though still elevated, central banks have started what appears to be a pivot towards lower rate hikes or pauses. At the same time, they continue to emphatically reiterate their resolve to bring inflation down closer to targets.”
On the growth front, the RBI Governor noted that projections are now veering around to a softer recession as against a severe and more widespread recession projected a few months back.

Stressing on the need to strengthen bilateral trade relations to deal with global supply-chain shocks, he said that India has recently signed bilateral trade agreements with the UAE and Australia and more such agreements are works in progress.
He also said that the net FDI flows remain strong and foreign portfolio flows have resumed since July 2022, with intermittent outflows from time to time.
“The size of forex reserves is comfortable and has gone up from $524 billion on October 21, 2022 to $572 billion as on January 13, 2023. Further, India’s external debt ratios are low by international standards. This has enabled the Reserve Bank to eschew measures to control capital flows and take steps to further internationalise the domestic currency, even during episodes of significant capital outflows,” he said.
Referring to the ever depreciating trajectory of the rupee, Das said that the currency’s performance in terms of volatility remained “impressive”.
“For example, the one-month implied volatility of the rupee touched a high of 25 per cent during the global financial crisis on October 10, 2008 and 20 per cent during the taper tantrum period on August 29, 2013. During the Covid-19 pandemic, however, the implied volatility peaked at 10 per cent on March 24, 2020 and has remained well anchored thereafter, despite the uncertainties associated with the war and monetary tightening by major central banks,” he said.
Commenting on the global scenario, Das said that the global economy is still marred by shocks and uncertainty. Financial markets remain volatile and the geopolitical situation continues to be tense. International food, energy and commodity prices have eased but uncertainties do remain. Inflation remains high and broad-based across countries. The IMF has projected contractions in over one-third of the global economy.
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( With inputs from www.siasat.com )

January 27, 2023
India’s Exports Fell 17% To $29.78 Bn In Oct, Trade Deficit Widens To $26.91 Bn

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India’s exports fell 17% to $29.78 billion in October, while its trade deficit increased to $26.91 billion.
According to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday, the country’s overall outbound shipments decreased by 16.65% to $29.78 billion in October as a result of a decline in some sectors’ merchandise exports, and the merchandise trade deficit increased to $26.91 billion from $25.71 billion the previous month, news agency PTI reported.
The report showed that imports for the month totaled $56.69 billion, compared to $53.64 billion in October 2021.
This year, from April to October, exports increased by 12.55 percent to $263.35 billion. Data show that imports increased 33.12% to $436.81 billion.
Between September 2022 and October 2022, both merchandise exports and imports slowed sequentially, which, in our opinion, was caused by more holidays associated with the holiday season.
In spite of the significant YoY decrease in the merchandise exports statistic, the trade deficit worsened in MoM terms during this time, albeit not alarmingly, according to ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar who was quoted by Livemint.
When compared to November 2021, which had a later start to the holiday season, the sequential trend of exports in October 2022 is similar to what was observed in November 2021.
Given the current global demand issues, Nayar continued, “At this point, we anticipate some recovery in exports and imports in November 2022 relative to October 2022, albeit it may not be as substantial as the pattern seen in November and December of 2021.

(With inputs from agencies and more)

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November 16, 2022