Up close in Taiwan with the Republican who compared Xi to Hitler

McCaul is hardly alone in making saber-rattling comments about Taiwan while visiting East Asia. Most provocative may have been Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of State who previously served with McCaul in the House. Pompeo last year used a trip to Taiwan to call for the U.S. to recognize the island as an independent nation — the ultimate diplomatic red line for mainland China.

President Joe Biden has also engaged in McCaul-style gestures toward ditching strategic ambiguity. He has repeatedly indicated that the U.S. would defend Taiwan from an invasion, only to have his aides walk it back in the press.

But McCaul’s remarks underscored a reality that the Brookings Institution warned about in an analysis published while he was on the ground: American politicians who go too far in defense of Taiwan run the risk of drawing unwanted Chinese attention to the island.

A “client” state like Taiwan might normally enjoy support from a “patron” state like America, the Brookings authors wrote. But when “its security environment appears to be deteriorating, a client might not welcome signals of support from the patron if the client considers those signals to be so provocative that they undermine its security.”

The security risks are real. Hours before McCaul met with Tsai, China announced three days of live-fire military exercises around the island. Beijing imposed sanctions on the hosts of Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy, bringing U.S.-China relations to a recent low point, and later separately announced sanctions against McCaul, which he deemed a “badge of honor” in a statement.

But in an interview, McCaul didn’t back down. He stood by his comparison between Xi and Hitler, arguing that Russia and China together presented a threat unseen in generations.

“We really haven’t seen anything quite like this, on this scale and a threat to Europe and the Pacific, since World War II,” the 61-year-old said.

McCaul has made it his personal mission to enlist other Republicans in support of hawkish foreign policy, even as loud voices on the right — including Donald Trump — have questioned America’s interest in countering China and confronting Russia’s invasion. He brought fellow Texas GOP Reps. Keith Self and Jake Ellzey with him on a recent Ukraine trip, part of what Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) called his effort to “educate” Republican colleagues.

He’s particularly active on the U.S. airwaves.

“I joke with Mike because every time I turn on the Sunday TV shows, I’ll see McCaul. And then I’ll click over to the next channel, and I’ll see McCaul,” Fitzpatrick said in an interview. “He gets more TV time than the speaker.”

In the interview, McCaul notably declined to criticize Trump’s approach to both Xi and Putin. Trump “at least projected strength,” the GOP lawmaker said, alleging that Biden “seems so weak” compared with his predecessor.

McCaul even argued that Trump’s “personality probably prevented an invasion” of Ukraine during his administration and “certainly would have deterred Chairman Xi from invading Taiwan” — both dubious claims, given the former president’s past praise for both Xi and Putin.

The former president’s polling lead in the 2024 primary could soon force McCaul and other GOP backers of Ukraine to grapple with a standard-bearer whose foreign policy views clash with theirs.

While McCaul steered clear of Trump, he conceded that he is not certain Congress would be prepared to vote to authorize or otherwise fund a U.S. military response should Beijing escalate: “I do worry about that,” he said.

Even as he reiterated one-on-one that he wouldn’t shrink from supporting a military response against China, he used a public press conference in Taipei to sound a note of characteristic bravado that may or or may not go over well in Beijing.

Asked by a reporter near the end of his trip if officials like Tsai had shared concern privately about his harsh rhetoric, McCaul responded that the Taiwanese president “welcomes” the American lawmakers’ backing, particularly because it was bipartisan.

“Obviously,” he added about China, “you don’t want to poke the Panda.”