By Justice Katju
R. Nagaraj is an eminent Indian economist, who is a former Professor in the Indira Gandhi Indian Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, and presently Visiting Professor in the Centre of Development Studies, Trivandrum.
He has said that despite all tall claims that India has the fastest growing economy in the world and that in a few years it will be the world’s third largest economy, the truth is that India has not experienced such an economic downturn over the past 7 decades as it is currently experiencing, though the seriousness of this downturn does not find place in the minds of its policy makers and the public.
He further says that India is currently stuck in the trap of growing unemployment. Indian rulers said that they will create 100 million jobs, but the truth is that India has lost 23 million jobs in 2017-2021. An example of the level of unemployment is that in 2019 12.5 million indians applied for 3500 railway jobs.
Vietnam, with a population of 100 million people, exports the same value of manufactured goods as India, which has a population of 1400 million. Bangladesh is also doing far better than India.
Something similar has been said by Dr Parakala Prabhakar, who holds a Ph.D from the London School of Economics. He has said that the BJP Govt has made a mess of the Indian economy, and has referred in his book ‘The Crooked Timber of New india’ to the Oxfam Report, increasing inequality, rural distress, inflation and increasing pauperisation in india
I have said the same in the article below
Alice in the Wonderland that is India: Justice Katju
However, despite all this, I believe that the BJP will still win the Parliamentary elections in 2024, and I may give my reasons.
Although the Indian Constitution declares india to be a secular country, the ground reality is very different. After all, the Constitution is just a piece of paper, and writing something in it does not change the ground realities.
It must be understood that secularism is a feature of an industrialised society ( as in Western countries ), while india is still largely semi-feudal ( as is evident from the rampant casteism and communalism which prevails here ).
Most Hindus in India are communal, and so are most Muslims.
It is not that communalism suddenly emerged in India in 2014 after the BJP victory. It was there even before 2014, but to some extent it was kept in check because Congress and the other ‘secular’ parties sought the large Muslim vote bank, and therefore had to give some protection to Muslims.
BJP does not get Muslim votes, and so it skilfully manipulates the communal feelings which lie beneath the surface in Indian society.
So communalism, which
was lying latent and to some extent checked before 2014, has thereafter become open, virulent and aggressive. Despite its slogan of ‘sabka saath sabka vikaas’, atrocities are often committed on Muslims, and they are often victimised and discriminated against
Since about 80% Indians are Hindus this fact benefits the BJP which claims to represent the Hindus.
Of course Hindus are ordinarly divided on caste basis, but when communal feelings are aroused they tend to unite against what they perceive to be the common enemy viz Muslims ( as it happened during the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation ).
After 2014 there has been considerable religious polarisation in Indian society, and many Indian institutions have become ‘saffronised’.
As the 2024 parliamentary elections approach communal incidents will be skilfully stage managed, and this has already been witnessed in Manipur and Haryana. My own guess is that a few months before the elections they will reach such a high pitch that most Hindus will combine as against the Muslims.
There may also be a short war against Pakistan, or a few ‘surgical’ strikes ( this strategy was also utilised by the Congress in 1962 by invading Goa and then declaring elections, in which it scored a thumping victory ).
BJP gets its support not from its performance but from its Hindu identity.
As the elections approach, the agitations against the Gyanvapi mosque in Varanasi and the Shahi Masjid in Mathura ( as well as other places ) will be stepped up, and communal riots break out in many parts, to create a communal frenzy in India, which will
ensure BJP victory in the polls..